"It is looking like a good time to be playing graveyard hate again."
That was two weeks ago.
Over these two weeks, Reanimator has completely taken over the format.
Level 0 is switching to the Reanimator deck that is dominating. That is an understandable and reasonable strategy.
Level 1 is increasing the amount of graveyard gate we’re playing, attempting to level everyone that is getting on the Reanimator train. Not all decks can actually be made to beat Reanimator effectively. Level 1 is definitely playing a strategy that can beat Reanimator.
Level 2 is finding the strategy that best beats the strategies that beat Reanimator. When people talk about the "next level," this is what they mean (assuming they aren’t talking about a credit card game). It is glorified paper-rock-scissors, but really it is about anticipating what other people will do in anticipation of the metagame.
Why do we want to beat what we think people will think beats what’s the best/most popular? Michael Flores explained it best here. The long and short of it is that if you are trying to win the tournament, scissors is often best in a rock-heavy format. Strong players are going to figure out that paper beats rock and rise to the top. If you make it through the initial rounds (relying on a little play skill and a little luck), you often find a new metagame where paper is the new rock.
What about if we go to the level after that?
Before we go too far, let’s take a look at how the Standard metagame has evolved over the past couple of weeks, as there has been quite a bit of moving and shaking. As always, we are working with the winner’s circle metagame, weighted by finish, since the metagame at the top tables of SCG Opens (like the metagame on Day 2 of GPs) is far more important in shaping the metagame to come as well as actually winning the event.
Standard Metagame: March 24, 2013
* Misc = Wolf Run Bant, Human Reanimator, Mono-Red Aggro, Boros, 4CC, Delver
Tons of stuff to glean here. To start with, just look at the decks that have fallen off the grid in the last two weeks. Wolf Run Bant, Human Reanimator, Mono-Red Aggro, Boros, 4CC, and Delver? Not a one of those decks put someone into the Top 16 of SCG Washington, DC or SCG Kansas City.
Of course, as alluded to earlier, Reanimator has completely dominated over the past two weeks, winning both SCG Opens and giving nine players Top 16 finishes. Once, we get past it, we come to a relatively even tier featuring U/W/R, Esper, Jund, and Naya. While this tier is relatively even averaged out, it is certainly far from stable. Three weeks ago, Jund and U/W/R were the format’s top dogs. The following week, they were both completely blanked and Esper and Naya tripled their combined metagame presence. This past weekend, U/W/R rebounded, but Jund not so much, with Esper and Naya still putting up results.
Interestingly, once we get past these five major archetypes, none of the other decks in the format put up results in both events. This seems to indicate there is a clear tier 1. Let’s take a look at it.
Creatures (23)
- 2 Arbor Elf
- 4 Avacyn's Pilgrim
- 3 Restoration Angel
- 2 Craterhoof Behemoth
- 4 Thragtusk
- 2 Lotleth Troll
- 3 Angel of Serenity
- 2 Centaur Healer
- 1 Obzedat, Ghost Council
Lands (21)
Spells (16)
Creatures (23)
- 2 Arbor Elf
- 4 Avacyn's Pilgrim
- 3 Restoration Angel
- 2 Craterhoof Behemoth
- 4 Thragtusk
- 2 Lotleth Troll
- 3 Angel of Serenity
- 2 Centaur Healer
- 1 Obzedat, Ghost Council
Lands (21)
Spells (16)
This new breed of Reanimator deck plays a passable aggressive midrange game and is chock full of threats small, medium, and large. While it can apply early pressure, it really just wants to hang out until it builds a game-winning advantage in its graveyard.
Strengths:
Weaknesses:
Creatures (11)
Lands (25)
Spells (24)
At this point, U/W/R Flash has moved completely away from Boros Reckoner (as has basically most of the format). The new twist? Aurelia, the Warleader as a better Thundermaw Hellkite. Sometimes you can just flash down an end step Restoration Angel, untap, drop Aurelia, and do twelve out of nowhere.
Strengths:
Weaknesses:
Creatures (8)
Planeswalkers (2)
Lands (26)
Spells (24)
While Esper Control has clearly proven itself the best control deck, its success each week seems to fluctuate as a function of the other top decks. With less blue decks and White Weenie variants to beat up on, Esper is finding the metagame somewhat more hostile. That said, when Jund fell off the map for a week, Esper skyrocketed. Three Rest in Peace in the sideboard? It’s not a coincidence.
Strengths:
Weaknesses:
Creatures (23)
- 2 Olivia Voldaren
- 4 Avacyn's Pilgrim
- 3 Huntmaster of the Fells
- 4 Restoration Angel
- 4 Thragtusk
- 2 Thundermaw Hellkite
- 4 Boros Reckoner
Planeswalkers (3)
Lands (24)
Spells (10)
Part of the decline of Jund has to be attributed to return of Dark Naya, a Naya variant that borrows two of Jund’s biggest weapons, Olivia and the Rakdos’s Return / Slaughter Games package.
Strengths:
Weaknesses:
Creatures (13)
Planeswalkers (5)
Lands (25)
Spells (17)
While Jund was the best performing macro-archetype of Pro Tour Gatecrash and continued to perform well after, it has had a tough time of things the past two weeks. This is almost completely due to its very weak Reanimator matchup. With Reanimator currently defining the format, will Jund evolve or just rely on everyone else to play the Rest in Peaces? After all, if there is as big an increase in decks that beat Reanimator as there should be, Jund gets real interesting.
For instance, imagine if G/W Aggro made a comeback. It is not hard to construct a G/W aggro deck that just rolls Reanimator…
… Jund can be built to beat that.
This is not to say this is where you want to be. After all, if you set your Jund deck up to beat G/W and the way people beat Reanimator is playing Esper Control with tons of Rest in Peace (relying on tons of sweepers to beat the G/W decks), you are going to be fairly out of position.
G/W is also just one of many possible responses people could have to the recent Reanimator menace. What about R/G Blitz with Madcap skills?
Strengths:
Weaknesses:
Assembling a five-deck gauntlet is very straightforward at the moment.
1. Reanimator
2. U/W/R Flash
3. Esper Control
4. Naya
5. Jund
What I find interesting is that once we look at Reanimator as WGB and U/W/R Flash as WUR, that makes the format primarily about five shards and wedges:
WGB
WUR
WUB
WGR
BGR
Four white decks
Three green decks
Three black decks
Three red decks
Two blue decks
That is a pretty good mix right there, but if we drop a little lower, we see a pretty exotic blend of strategies (though largely aggro-slanted):
Prime Speaker Bant
Jund Aggro
Blitz
Naya Humans
Zombies
The Aristocrats
Each of these tier 2 decks seems to keep popping up occasionally, but will any of them rise up? I just love that the Standard format allows for this kind of depth and diversity. As scary as cards like Thragtusk, Sphinx’s Revelation, and Snapcaster Mage are, one has to admit that the format is quite robust and dynamic.
Today’s rogue deck of the day is Jeff Hoogland RUG Flash deck. That’s right, Flash with no Angels:
Creatures (15)
Lands (25)
Spells (20)
Yeva instead of Restoration Angel is cute, but color me skeptical. What’s really curious about this build is the total lack of Thragtusks! It is pretty mind-blowing to go to all the trouble of playing green in midrange deck but to not want Thragtusk. I guess the theory is that the Huntmasters, green flash fatties, and red removal do what you need in this area.
Having not tried this list, I am hesitant to make too many snap judgments. I’d love to hear Jeff’s take on the list. I know when I see this list that I see a U/W/R Flash deck with no Angels or Revelations. Compared to a Naya or Jund deck, does the blue really do more than the white or black would? I’m not sure, but I would have to imagine that you gain a lot of edge from opponents not knowing how to play around your game plan.
RUG midrange decks with Kessig Wolf Run aren’t completely new, but this is a fairly purist take on the strategy. I wonder if Mayor of Avabruck might be appropriate.
Where do we want to position ourselves for next week?
Remember, it isn’t always about being on the next level. Sometimes, rock is so strong that you just want to play rock (like Elves in Berlin or Flash in GP Flash). Sometimes, you want to be two steps ahead because it is so obvious what the first step is (such as immediately after a banned list change).
There is a real risk when trying to level the format that you go one step too far. When you position yourself to beat the deck that would have been good for people to play (but they don’t, at least not enough of it), you are really just leveling yourself.
For instance, way back in Pro Tour Paris 1997, I was on Bloom-Drain and switched to a B/R midrange deck that beat Bloom-Drain and other B/R midrange decks, foolishly getting caught up in the hype and imagining that a lot of other people were going to adapt their strategies (after Bloom-Drain with Infernal Contract had been spoiled the day before the Pro Tour).
When it doubt, it is far better to err on the side of not out-leveling yourself. Every level you go further into the future, your clarity of what that world looks like gets lower resolution. If you are unsure about the level you are at, take it down a level and usually you can see the next down much more clearly. When it seems like a level is fuzzy and confusing, that is a sure sign that you do not yet see the gears behind it or that you are looking at the wrong possible future.
What do we want to play this week?
Well, we know that Reanimator is dominating.
We also know that most other tournament players know this.
Here is a question for you. Do those people actually know how to beat Reanimator? It isn’t so important what is actually the best against Reanimator. What matters is what people will believe is the best against Reanimator and what people believe other people will believe is the best against Reanimator.
What would I play next week?
First and foremost, I would play something I am comfortable with, something I am familiar with. There are a lot of swingy matchups, but there is also a lot of play and possibility of pilot error. Playing a deck that you know well can give you a big advantage.
If I am confident with multiple decks, now it is more of a question of looking at their relative strengths against the field I envision. Out of the top five decks, which do you expect to go up in popularity? Which do you expect to decline?
Overall, I suspect that while there is room for technology and position in this format, this is not the time to overthink ourselves. I’d focus on playing something that plays the game we want to play. That said, I’d still want to make sure we have a good plan against Reanimator…
Ok, I’m out for today, but I’ll be back Wednesday with a mailbag article. Reply in the comments below if you have a question, topic, or decklist you’d like to see answered/covered on Wednesday.
See you then!
Patrick Chapin
"The Innovator"