It's the end of the first week of Magic 2015 Spoilers! Can I say that Magic 2015 continues to look like a fantastic set? I know that a lot of people gloss over the core set, but Wizards wasn't screwing around this year both when they made the new cards, and when they chose which cards to reprint. We see the return of Urborg (which was up to $30 for the Planar Chaos version) plus the Apocalypse Painlands (which will shoot up in value now that they're getting played again). Did I mention there's also a new Rare and a new Planeswalker which are both playable? Can you tell that I'm excited?
How I review:
Starting Price: The first price we assign to the card as a preorder.
Current Price: The current price of the card by the time this article goes live.
Future Price (Short Term): The price I believe the card will be at before Magic Online redemptions go live for Magic 2015.
Future Price (Medium Term): The price I believe the card will be at by the time the next set (Khans of Tarkir) comes out.
Future Price (Long Term): The price I believe the card will be at a year from now, when M16 is released.
Starting Price: $3-6
Current Price: $3-6
Future Price (Short Term): $5-8
Future Price (Medium Term): $6-10
Future Price (Long Term): $3-4
I'm lumping these all together. These are the enemy-color painlands, which lends a little credence that Khans of Tarkir is going to be a wedge-color set (basically the inverse of Shards block). More importantly, these are all Standard-playable lands that will push two-color aggro archetypes in ways that Mana Confluence only started to do. Prior to this reprinting, Reef was at $12 (Modern play), Coast and Wastes were at $6 (fringe Modern play) and Caves and Forge were at $3 (Caves was just reprinted in the Modern event Deck, Forge is less played in Modern).
All of these will see heavy, heavy play in Standard over the next few months. I expect them all to hit the $5-$6 range minimum, which Shivan Reef creeping back up to the $10 mark. Once we get closer to M16 rotation, these will decline - but for the next nine months these will be in very high demand.
Starting Price: $2.50
Current Price: $2.50
Future Price (Short Term): $2
Future Price (Medium Term): $2
Future Price (Long Term): $2
The two analogous cards to Hushwing Gryff are Torpor Orb ($3) and Aven Mindcensor ($12). The comparison is to show that the ability (Torpor Orb) and the body (2/1 flash flyer for 2W) are both eminently playable in Legacy (and, to a lesser degree, Modern). Because Hushwing Gryff is designed more for older formats than it is for Standard, there will be enough to go around in the short term. The foil versions of Hushwing Gryff are going to draw a huge premium (4-5x the non-foil price) due to demand from Eternal-format players.
Starting Price: $20
Current Price: $20
Future Price (Short Term): $15
Future Price (Medium Term): $10
Future Price (Long Term): $10
Probably the worst Jace printed yet. This isn't to say Jace, the Living Guildpact is a bad card - just that there's an impressive pedigree to measure against. The first ability doesn't draw cards (and previous Jaces all let you immediately draw cards), and the second ability is a huge drain on his loyalty.
The place where Jace, The Living Guildpact shines is if a control deck emerges that lets you protect Jace long enough to get his ultimate off. Given that Jace starts with an effective six loyalty (five plus one for the first abillity) and only costs four mana, and I think that this might be a little more of a realistic possibility than most of the ultimates on other planeswalkers.
Starting Price: $1
Current Price: $1.50
Future Price (Short Term): $1
Future Price (Medium Term): $1
Future Price (Long Term): $1
Finally, a green card with this ability that is cheap enough to cast to consider. (See also: Greater Good and Momentous Fall.) Life's Legacy costing only two is huge, because you can follow up Life's Legacy with other large green spells versus having to commit the majority of your mana that turn to casting the draw spell itself. This means that you can play Polukranos, make it monstrous, and then play Life's Legacy to draw 6-8 cards, plus play a second Polukranos that you drew off those 6-8 cards. This might be even better than I'm giving it credit for, but I'm always incredulous about a card that requires you to sacrifice a creature. Again, on the flip side - would this have Legacy applications with Tarmogoyf? Just floating that out there.
Starting Price: $15
Current Price: $12
Future Price (Short Term): $15
Future Price (Medium Term): $15
Future Price (Long Term): $20
Urborg is an expected (but welcome) reprint in M15. As I mentioned in the prologue to this article - the Planar Chaos version of Urborg climbed up to $30 before this reprint hit. This gives Urborg a price history that is higher than its current price - and given that Mono-Black Devotion is a thing, Urborg allows that deck to finally diversify more easily into other colors without having to sacrifice its manabase. I see Urborg as dipping slightly due to the reprint, and then recovering the majority of value over the next year (much like happened with Mutavault, but on a smaller scale since Urborg is less played than Mutavault).
To determine the value of a booster pack, I'm going to start with the following formula:
(2R + 1M) / 80
That isn't enough of a picture though. In fairness, $0.50 to $1 bulk rares don't really amount to “real” value if you're looking to trade with other players. So I'm omitting the value of any Rare that is below $2 (rounded from $1.99) and any Mythic that is below $4 (rounded from $3.99).
18 out of the 53 Rares have been spoiled. Here are the ones that are $2 and up!
NOTE: Jalira fell below $2 and is now off this list.
Avacyn, Guardian Angel: $3
Battlefield Forge: $3
Caves of Koilos: $3
Chasm Skulker: $2
Genesis Hydra: $2.50
Hushwing Gryff: $2.50
Llanowar Wastes: $4
Ob Nixilis, Unshackled: $4
Phyrexian Revoker: $3
Preeminent Captain: $3
Return to the Ranks: $2
Shivan Reef: $6
Sliver Hive: $4
Spirit Bonds: $2
Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth: $12
Waste Not: $10
Yavimaya Coast: $4
Yisan, the Wanderer Bard: $2
Total Rare Value: $72
Eleven out of the Fifteen Mythic Rares have been spoiled.
(NOTE: Soul of Ravnica has fallen below the $4 threshold and is off this list):
Ajani Steadfast: $20
Chandra, Pyromaster: $8
Jace, the Living Guildpact: $20
Liliana Vess: $8
Nissa, Worldwaker: $25
Perilous Vault: $8
Soul of Innistrad; $5
Soul of New Phyrexia: $15
Soul of Shandalar: $8
Soul of Theros: $10
So plugging this into the formula, we get the following:
(2R ($72) + 1M ($127)) = $271
$271/121 = $2.24 value per pack, or $80.64 per box.
There's still a ton of the set left to spoil, including a 6th(!) planeswalker (Garruk, coming Monday), but this set is easily going to be the most valuable Core set since M11, which featured the Titans for the first time.
See you all Monday!
Previous Daily Financial Value Of Magic 2015 Articles
6/23 – Aggressive Mining; Avarice Amulet; Chasm Skulker; Cruel Sadist; Darksteel Citadel; Genesis Hydra; Goblin Kaboomist; Jalira, Master Polymorphist; Master of Predicaments; Ob Nixilis, Unshackled; Return to the Ranks; Shield of the Avatar; Soul of New Phyrexia; Soul of Ravnica; Soul of Shandalar; Soul of Zendikar; Spirit Bonds; Waste Not; Yisan, the Wanderer Bard