I'm here today with another installment of Eldritch Moon Draft. Once again we'll be looking at the first pick of the draft, followed by a later pick, so without further ado, let's get right to it.
Pick 1, Pack 1
Wow, this is quite the pack. Midnight Scavengers, Certain Death, and Drag Under are all top commons that I wouldn't mind first-picking out of this pack, but none are a consideration here. Lashweed Lurker is great in U/G Emerge, but that level of commitment is unwarranted given the quality of its competition in this pack. The pick boils down to Somberwald Stag vs. Selfless Spirit.
On power level, Somberwald Stag wins. Five-drops tend to be overrated in Limited, but this one serves as a sizable creature and removal spell all in one, which is leagues better than your average 4/4 for five. It essentially serves as a double-spell turn all by itself while also being a two-for-one. Any card that can put you ahead on tempo and card advantage simultaneously is going to be excellent, provided the opportunity cost of playing it isn't enormous. Here, all that is asked of us is that we play green and our opponent play creatures, hardly a tough proposition.
Then again, Limited, especially Draft, is much faster than it used to be, and two-drops are at a premium. Selfless Spirit is as good as they come, having evasion and automatically giving you an advantage in any stall by making combat very difficult for your opponent. Typically cheap creatures become irrelevant in stalemates, since they often chump attack unless your opponent is at a very low life total, but this one becomes more effective in those scenarios.
Despite my penchant for aggression, I'm inclined to go for power level and take Somberwald Stag here, but I wouldn't fault you for going the other way here, especially if you like white or have a reason to expect white will be open from your left.
Pick 3, Pack 1
This is the most important part of our card pool so far:
Okay, I told you I like two-drops, so this shouldn't be a surprise. Mistakes may have been made, but our deck is looking great after two packs. You know what they say: I'd rather be lucky than good. That may not be true in general but it is likely true here.
Avacynian Missionaries is an excellent card if you can transform it, and we already have a playable piece of equipment in Cultist's Staff. Bound by Moonsilver is a premium removal spell without any help. So do we gamble or play it safe?
Because our deck is already looking good, I would play it safe and take Bound by Moonsilver. This is akin to a game state where you are ahead and playing to limit your opponent's outs. This deck can lose if it is forced to play a mediocre Equipment and a glorified Equipment when our draws don't break correctly, and it is more likely to win if you just take the consistently good card. If our deck were bad, I'd be more inclined to take the risk, just like when you're behind in a game of Magic and play more aggressively than you otherwise would.
Magic may be the most complex game ever made, but patterns like this still exist. Whether in-draft or in-game, don't get fancy unless you absolutely have to. Play solid Magic and the wins will come.