The Modern market has been slowly losing steam for several months now. In fact, according to the fine folks at MTG Goldfish, the overall Modern Staples Price Index has dropped by roughly one-third since its high back in May of 2018.
Granted, this isn't a perfect measurement of Modern's overall cost. Cards are added to and removed from Goldfish's list of format staples as the metagame evolves, which means that some of this lost value is likely due to more expensive decks falling out of favor as opposed to prices actually dropping. A more comprehensive index I found shows an overall drop of just 10%, though that list includes a few hundred $2-$5 cards that are always going to be relatively inelastic due to how cheap they already are. There are all sorts of factors that can cause a card to drop from $40 to $20, but reprints are pretty much the only way to get a $4 card to hit $2.
But whether you want to measure the drop in Modern prices at 10% or 30% (or somewhere in between, which is probably the most accurate way to look at things), it's undeniable that the market has been falling for a while. It hasn't been a crazy panic or anything, just a slow drip-drip-drip that you may or may not have even noticed.
So, what the heck is happening here? More importantly, are Modern prices going to keep dropping, or are we about to see a major rebound?
I'm sure most of you already have your theories, but my goal today is to explore the immediate past and future of Modern as thoroughly as I can. And don't worry – if you want some concrete tips on the best Modern cards to buy and sell right now, I've got you covered on that front, too.
But first, let's answer a simple-sounding question:
Why Did Modern Prices Drop?
As with everything in Magic finance, this is a complex and multi-faceted question. Let's see if I can come up with all the reasons why prices have been dropping: