The forum response to yesterday's daily was pretty significant. So much so, that I began to offer a response to the various replies in the forums, until the thing became so long that I decided just to write a full article about it. For those of you out of the loop, you can refer to yesterdays' article and the related forum discussion.
Popular opinion seems to be that I messed up, that Waking Nightmare (or perhaps Empty Graves, but mostly Waking Nightmare) would have been the correct play, and that exposing my bombs to two likely removal spells against a Red/Black opponent offered up one of my few avenues of defeat against a land screwed opponent who mulliganed.
In retrospect, I think this assessment is pretty accurate. I think that the path that I chose wasn't the best one, and probably was the worst one. However, I think there is some oversimplifications going on in the discussion, but it's probably my fault for even including what I did in the first article, and the outcome of that play (and the probable outcome of the alternate plays, based on his hand and subsequent draws). What I'd like to do is take a look at the issues in a little more depth, plus respond to what some of the readers in the forums had to say.
What I think the biggest mistake that both I made at the time, and that most of the responses on the forum reflect, is a general overvaluing of Fumiko in this situation. While yes, Fumiko is certainly a bomb, it probably isn't good enough to get you out of this game by itself barring a bizarre draw from my opponent for the rest of the game. Furthermore, in an immediate sense it isn't even better than Kami of Empty Graves. What is the worst case scenario for you if you play Kami of the Empty Graves? He has a one damage removal spell. However, Fumiko is nearly as bad as Empty Graves against Frostling or First Volley.
If I play the Fumiko, and he attacks with his Hearth Kami, I am certainly going to block. Especially if he has land number 4 (for Okiba-Gang), but even still with his available mana he could potentially Throat Slit Fumiko if I don't block. Just logically, he has to attack with his Hearth Kami. It's not even an issue of him bluffing, there are nearly as many cards that wreck me if I don't block than cards that wreck me if I do, so I still end up losing my four-mana creature the same way that I would have. Sure, I do kill the Hearth Kami, but if he couldn't kill Fumiko he likely couldn't kill Jiwari, in which case killing the Hearth Kami is basically a moot point.
Another issue is the removal spell that I know about is Horobi's Whisper. I've killed a Graverobber and a Takenuma Bleeder, meaning that the Waking Nightmare will put him at a magical four cards to splice the Whisper. In the event that he holds Whisper as his last card post-Nightmare, suddenly I've given him any arcane spell at all as an out to my two Red creatures, as opposed to before where he needed two separate removal spells. This is pretty compelling, and I think something that is being largely ignored. While the Waking Nightmare play does get around the possibility of two banishes in his hand, it does enable him to hold a banish and then draw a whole slew of outs he didn't have before. Casting the Waking Nightmare isn't strictly superior in terms of protecting my threats, it might actually do me more harm than good.
I think the best possible sequence of plays would have been Kami of Empty Graves/Fumiko/Jiwari, with Waking Nightmare in place of one of those plays if he ever goes down to two cards or less in hand. It allows me to play my least relevant in order, hopefully drawing out his removal, or just attacking him if he elects not to kill a guy, while saving the Nightmare for the situation where it nukes his entire hand. The ideal situation is me getting to play Jiwari (the real key to this game, in my opinion) in a position where hopefully his removal has been entirely spent. Also, I'll always have a blocker available in this play sequence in the event that his hand contains Okiba-Gang or Throat Slitter with no removal spells.
Basically, the response in the forums has been what I expected, largely in favor of the Waking Nightmare play. In a lot of ways, it's the most logical play. You've knocked your opponent to one card in hand. They have three lands and a Hearth Kami, versus your hand of two lands and three creatures, two of which likely win you game outright if they stick. Why would you elect to not run this play? In retrospect, the issue isn't "How do I best go about winning this game", but more an issue of "What are the possible ways my opponent can get out of this highly favorable situation for me?" After evaluating the situation more completely, I feel that the best way to avoid potential disaster, and minimize my opponents outs, is to play Kami of Empty Graves, Fumiko and Jiwari in that order, while Waking Nightmaring him if he ever goes down to two or less cards.
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