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The Conflux Prerelease is done and gone. Any doubts that we could have about the spoiler are now quelled, and we can start applying these new cards to any of the formats that we choose. The big tournament formats right now are Standard (for those going to the Pro Tour) and Extended (for those trying). While I’m definitely working on helping some people for Standard, I suppose it goes without saying that I’m also deeply interested in actually qualifying myself. By the end of this week, Conflux will be in the mix of all of it, so there isn’t much time for dilly-dallying.

Whenever we go into slightly modified formats, it is always best to start with the past. Particularly, to start with the most recent past that is noteworthy. With this in mind, let’s first review Los Angeles, and then its aftermath.

G/B Loam: 5
Affinity: 25
Wizzies: 35
NLU: 3
Storm: 15

(A note on my notation: 1, obviously is first, and 2 is second, but 3 is “3rd/4th”, and 5 is “5th-8th”; further, I call the Blue-based Riptide Laboratory decks “Wizzies,” partly to mock them, but also because they do feel like an entirely different animal than the Faeries we’re used to in other formats.)

The noteworthy thing about this Top 8, other than LSV’s further proving his current level of dominance in the game (a dominance, I believe, marked by a lot of hard work more so than the kind of pure talent that fueled Finkel or Maher – the kind of dominance that gives me hope, especially given my own self-acknowledged weaknesses of play, at times), is the re-emergence of Storm. It wasn’t just that Elves was knocked off the radar, primarily by hordes of Wizzies, but that this vacuum let Storm come back into the mix, without Elves around to knock it about.

With Storm so high on the radar, the results of the following week become interesting, from the following PTQs:

Burlington, 139 people
Columbus, a whopping 230 people
Madison, 160 people
Rockville, 167 people

Together, their combined Top 8 finishes are:

Wizzies: 112333555555
Affinity: 1355
G/B Loam: 135
Burn: 22
NLU: 35
Storm: 55
Elves: 55

Others, combined (Ponza, Tezzerator, Prosak Zoo, AIR, Tron): 23355

Holy Wizzies, Batman!

One would think that with Storm making such a big splash at Los Angeles, you would see far more representation at the PTQ level. At Madison, for example, a fairly large amount of people chose to play the deck, with current Wisconsin State Champion, Collin La Fleur, sleeving it up, and some of them even floated near the top. But none of them got there.

There is a clue to be found in the Grand Prix Coverage.

Check out this first game versus Mat Marr. LSV is a total master, making play after play that might have made this game a loss in the hands of a lesser player. A little bit of “courage and pluck,” one might say, but it boils down to this: he didn’t pack it in while there was still a reasonable hope for victory. Compare this to someone who keeps trying to eke it out against an opponent who has the game well in hand, with no real outs. No, LSV had outs, and he played for them. I’m reminded of Tiago Chan’s story of a remarkable win, in which he played out a really bad situation in a particular way, because if his opponent made a particular play, and then if he drew the perfect card, then he could win. This is the kind of game I felt like LSV was playing, here.

I’m willing to wager that most players would just pack it up in that match. Mat Marr’s inability to find Mana Leak certainly helped LSV, but it really does have a lot to do with his absolute skill he showed. With Wizzies everywhere right now, it seems you would have to be playing at a masterful level to really have a shot.

This gives us that Public Enemies list we’re really looking for. It looks something like this:

Don Wizzies, leader of the metagame
Lieutenant Affinity, aggro- deck of choice
Enforcer G/B Loam (of both varieties), midrange deck of the moment (beatdown or control, depending on the build)
With help from their Foot Soldiers, Burn, NLU, and combo

Sure, there are other decks out there, but right now, they aren’t making the cut, at least in terms of metagame representation.

The following cards are just about the only cards that I can see having any real potential impact on the metagame

Path to Exile: I want to make it clear: I hate this card. This is not a good card. However, just because it is not a good card, doesn’t mean that there isn’t a place for it, based on metagames, or simply fitting well into a particular deck. The big, fundamental problem with the card, in a vacuum, is that the loss of card advantage is significant because it is also a loss that helps make an opponents card quality slightly better, but more importantly, greatly improves their tempo in an early game. For some decks that touch into White, however, they can find themselves improved if they don’t care about the card advantage and speed they give to an opponent. The big targets for Path to Exile are AIR’s creatures, Affinity, and the random annoying creatures that a Red-based deck can put out. If you chose to go in this direction, beware, though. It isn’t a card to simply be cast willy-nilly. The big incentive to this card in this metagame is really twofold: Affinity is just owned by it (take note, control decks who struggle with Affinity), and it is an instant answer to Tarmogoyf (or any Zoo player whose creature “suddenly” becomes bigger).

Controlled Instincts: It has been said that Blue has trouble with the Three-Color Zoo designed by Adam Prosak, and popularized by LSV. This point has often been argued by proponents of each deck, but it can at least be called contentious enough to be a debate. One of my favorite Magic thinkers, Richard Feldman, has said that the reason these Zoo decks win is because they just manage to get in two or three hits. For a lot of Blue players, the answer has typically been combining their Engineered Explosives with boarded Threads of Disloyalty. Controlled Instincts supplies another choice for the Blue player. It doesn’t stop that first hit, but it does come down a hell of a lot sooner, potentially preventing a whole ton of damage. Dropping a Controlled Instincts will often be the same as gaining two to four life, or even far more, which can be critical in a matchup where you don’t often want to be tapping out, lest Something Bad happen.

Inkwell Leviathan: I’m going to go out on a limb and say that this creature might revitalize the Reanimator archetype. The thing about it is that it is largely untouchable. Akroma is stiff competition, but you can only reanimate a single Akroma. This should definitely be on the radar.

Master Transmuter: I keep picturing this card in a revitalized Tron, powering Sundering Titan in and out of play. Like Inkwell Leviathan, this is quite speculative, but I think it bears notice.

Nyxathid: Nyxathid seems likely to be the “new” the Rack. The Rack was always so potent because it punished you for trying to escape its clutches. Nyxathid hits that special Sweet Spot of three mana, which makes it slightly hard to counter, as it dodges early Sprites and all Spell Snares, leaving it only vulnerable to Mana Leak, generally. Combine this with access to copious discard, and you have a really daunting potential threat to add to a Loam deck or any Black-based discard.

Wretched Banquet: It might not be an instant, but this seems to me to be much better than Path to Exile, at least most of the time. It can kill that critical early creature from an aggressive deck, stops the AIR first threat, and is just generally quite potent in a low-critter deck. Like Path to Exile, I view this as a narrow “corner case” card, but certainly well worth remembering for any Black-based deck looking for cheap, effective removal.

Banefire: Okay, here’s one of the ones truly worthy of note. Clearly, this card is “merely” Blaze until you hit six mana. This puts it out of reach for a deck like Stupid Red Burn (SRB), simply because that cost is actually quite prohibitive. What about decks that can actually achieve some degree of mana, however? Banefire might be a reasonable alternative finisher for Elves, if they are finding that Stifle is getting their Brain Freeze plan down. Still, that deck doesn’t typically lose to Blue for lack of a finisher, but typically for failing to even get there. Overall, this card is either going to be more for Standard, or find a home in a new deck, most likely.

Hellspark Elemental: This is a very likely include for SRB. While it is on the crappy two-mana list, it is ultimately worth remembering that Unearth is not casting the spell. It is just putting it into play. This means that Hellspark Elemental will definitely “resolve” at least once. It is probably worth including in any deck that also likes to run Keldon Marauders.

Volcanic Fallout: Like Banefire, this card is also more at home in Standard, fighting against Bitterblossom, but it is still incredibly valuable as a maindeck weapon against a whole ton of threats. Wizzies is not particularly excited about the prospect of uncounterable damage of any kind, and takes even less kindly to a version that will also off their entire team. Elves isn’t happy about the instant-based killing of their entire team. Heck, it is even a powerful weapon for Red against Empty the Warrens from AIR, an otherwise difficult card to answer. A deck like SRB, running very low on creatures, can use this effectively to finish off a creature that blocks a Keldon Marauders (or to clear a path for one), and have, in essence, a much better version of Flamebreak that they can actually hope to cast.

Might of Alara: Welcome back, Five-Color Zoo. Gaea’s Might was a pretty huge loss for that archetype, but expect to see a huge swing back with this under-priced Lave Axe. This card alone actually make me think that Path to Exile might be vaguely useful.

Noble Hierarch: For the aggressive deck, this card is basically an improved Llanowar Elves. Expect to see this card crop up in updates to PT Junk, Spirit Stompy, and other decks. While I don’t think this card is nearly as good as many other players seem to place it, it is real, and will be seeing play if the archetypes it supports end up being good enough to be a contender.

Nacatl Outlanders: While each of the protection creatures in this cycle definitely has a potential home in the metagame, this one stands out. As the Wizzies decks move further and further away from Vedalken Shackles, this new Yavimaya Barbarian can wreak havoc. I know that I am a little bittersweet in thinking about this, as William Jensen audibled into maindeck Barbarians against my mono-Blue deck almost ten years ago at U.S. Nationals to barely beat me. Fires, an otherwise great matchup for my deck, became really problematic with a Barbarian on the team. This Outlander might have similar powers in the current meta.

Knight of the Reliquary: The card is practically begging to be put into a Loam deck, but even without that, seems perfect for an aggressive White/Green deck, along the lines of Spirit Stompy. While it is limited by your Forests and Plains, it doesn’t change the fact that this guy can become big very fast, all the while pumping out Treetop Villages and friends. An excellent card that I think is sure to shake things up. I’m already working on a ton of ideas with this guy…

For me, the big wins seem to be for the aggressive decks. I know that I’m now expecting to see a resurgence in Zoo and Burn (and Prosak Zoo/Burn), with people like Rashad Miller and Matt Hansen working to recreate Spirit Stompy (heck, I might give that a go, too). Wizzies and Affinity remain virtually unchanged, though Wizzies does gain a great potential sideboard card in Controlled Instincts.

With these new cards, I think a deck like the following (lightly inspired by Antii Malin and Patrick Sullivan) could be reasonable:

4 Mogg Fanatic
4 Keldon Marauders
4 Hellspark Elemental
4 Rift Bolt
4 Volcanic Fallout
4 Lava Spike
3 Sulfuric Vortex
1 Shard Volley
3 Shrapnel Blast
2 Seal of Fire
4 Magma Jet
3 Blinkmoth Nexus
3 Darksteel Citadel
4 Great Furnace
13 Mountain

Sideboard:
4 Tattermunge Maniac
4 Smash to Smithereens
3 Pyrostatic Pillar
4 Stigma Lasher

At this point, I’ve only played three random MWS games with the deck, but I have to say the deck felt right. If I ever manage to go about rebuilding a MTGO collection, I know I’m sure to “sleeve” something like this up. Hellspark Elemental felt really fantastic, and Volcanic Fallout totally felt sick, turning the otherwise upsetting Elves matchup into one that felt really viable.

Best of luck in the coming weeks. I expect that if I haven’t perfected a Knight of the Reliquary deck by the time the PTQs come, I’ll be a Red Mage battling for a ticket to Honolulu.

See you next week!

Adrian Sullivan