The Day Two Metagame Analysis: What Are The Four Breakout Decks In The Post-Mirrodin Extended?
Day 1 Breakdown Recap (318)
1) Tinker 66 20.8%
2) Gobvantage 47 14.8%
3) Psychatog 28 8.8%
4) Mana Belcher 25 7.9%
5) Food Chain Goblins 23 7.2%
6) The Rock 21 6.6%
7) Angry Hermit 19 6.0%
8) Turbo Oath 14 4.4%
9) Aluren 12 3.8%
10) Tinker Stax 11 3.5%
11) U/G Madness 7 2.2%
11) Red Deck Wins 7 2.2%
12) Mind's Desire 5 1.6%
12) Goblins 5 1.6%
13) Draco Explosion 3 .94%
14) White Weenie 2 .63%
14) Turbo Land 2 .63%
14) W/U Weenie 2 .63%
15) Final Fantasy 1 .31%
Day 2 Breakdown (111)
|
Day 2 Deck |
# of Players Running Deck |
Percent of Metagame |
Percent That Made Day 2 |
|
1) Tinker |
25 |
22.5% |
38% |
|
2) Gobvantage |
18 |
16.2% |
38% |
|
3) Mana Belcher |
12 |
10.8% |
48% |
|
4) Psychatog |
9 |
8.1% |
32% |
|
4) Food Chain Goblins |
9 |
8.1% |
39% |
|
5) Angry Hermit |
8 |
7.2% |
42% |
|
6) The Rock |
7 |
6.3% |
33% |
|
7) Turbo Oath |
6 |
5.4% |
43% |
|
8) Tinker-Stax |
5 |
4.5% |
45% |
|
9) Mind's Desire |
3 |
2.7% |
60% |
|
9) Red Deck Wins |
3 |
2.7% |
43% |
|
10) U/G Madness |
1 |
0.9% |
14% |
|
10) Turbo Land |
1 |
0.9% |
|
|
10) White Weenie |
1 |
0.9% |
|
|
10) Draco Explosion |
1 |
0.9% |
|
|
10) Final Fantasy |
1 |
0.9% |
|
|
10) U/W Weenie |
1 |
0.9% |
The Analysis
Here's the deal: The average deck should have moved around 35% of the players who played the deck into Day 2. We threw out the very small n decks (n meaning number) and then looked for specific decks that qualified considerably larger numbers of players for Day 2 than average. Throwing out all sorts of possible rationales for why these decks fared as well as they did (such as player skill) and looking at strictly the numbers these are the standout decks of the tournament thus far.
Tinker and Tinker-Stax
Obviously the introduction of Mirrodin means there are a lot more artifacts available to be played - and aside from Type 1 there is no format capable of abusing new artifacts like Extended. Every deck in this format slaps people around like Tommy Lee after Pam told him she was moving out but Tinker is particularly vicious.
A lot of players figured out that Tinker would be good but it is a testament to the sheer power of the deck that players could know that it would be a large part of the metagame ahead of time and still not hate it into oblivion.
The Tinker-Stax variant is part of the continuing Scandinavian attempt to take over the Magic world... And from the look of things they are succeeding. The results of the deck could be partially skewed by the fact that some very good players are piloting it including Mattias Jorstedt Jens Thoren and pimp daddy Tomi Walamies but the deck itself remains quite impressive and unique.
Mana Belcher
When Mirrodin first premiered Ben Bleiweiss mentioned to me that Goblin Charbelcher was going to be an absolute wrecking ball in Extended - and for once Ben was exactly right. While many Goblin decks have incorporated Charbelcher as an additional kill method Mana Belcher is built around the explicit purpose of getting a Belcher into play removing all of the lands from your deck and Belching PTR's breath after a night on Bourbon Street at their opponent dealing twenty to thirty points of damage in one fell (and foul) swoop. And it does all this consistently by turns 3 and 4!
Since it's a combo deck it appears to be highly susceptible to disruption - but there isn't a lot of disruption floating around the floor today. Even if there was this deck topdecks like a champ (a trait that seems to be inherent in all decks running Tinker). Qualifying nearly 50% of the players running it for Day 2 it is definitely one of the standout decks in the format.
Turbo Oath
As usual Your Move Games came up with something especially good - and while the results it has posted have been well above-average one has to think that those numbers are due as much to the quality of the player running the deck as the actual strength of the deck itself.
Regardless YMG is good... Their deck is good too. It's Extended season so what do you expect?
Mind's Desire
The results this deck posted have to be taken with a grain of salt because only five players started the tournament with it - but everybody who saw the Japanese version in action was awed by it. The deck is able to go off from seemingly impossible positions and left many a player on the other side of the table shaking their heads at the broken and insane things that happened to them.
Honestly this looks like one of those crazy Japanese decks that sees a little play early on in a format (mostly due to the fact that it's secret tech) then gets widely adopted by a variety of players later and ends up setting the metagame down the road. Regardless of whether it sees any play in the future I've seen it up close and in person and will verify that it is amazing to watch.
Obviously if any bannings come out of this format the balance of power will shift again but for right now these are the best decks to be found
About Ted Knutson
Ted Knutson is the former Managing Editor of StarCityGames.com and is widely respected as one of the most knowledgable members of the Magic community.