Philadelphia Grudge Match

The Philly Grudge Match results are not surprising. Insert the obligatory “aggro rules in an undefined format” comment here. This is good
for value traders because it means that the “real” decks of the format have yet to emerge, and now we have time to track the sleepers and
the staples. Let’s look at the top four from the tournament.

Splinter Twin

Marc Tocco

States on 10-16-2011

Modern

Creatures (11)

• 2 Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker
• 3 Pestermite
• 2 Spellskite
• 4 Deceiver Exarch

Lands (18)

• 3 Steam Vents
• 1 Breeding Pool
• 4 Grove of the Burnwillows
• 4 Cascade Bluffs
• 2 Misty Rainforest
• 4 Scalding Tarn

Spells (31)

• 1 Mountain
• 4 Island
• 4 Sleight of Hand
• 4 Serum Visions
• 1 Thirst for Knowledge
• 4 Remand
• 2 Pact of Negation
• 2 Firespout
• 2 Punishing Fire
• 2 Dispel
• 4 Splinter Twin
• 1 Gitaxian Probe

Sideboard

• 3 Blood Moon
• 2 Engineered Explosives
• 2 Ancient Grudge
• 2 Vendilion Clique
• 2 Firespout
• 2 Punishing Fire
• 1 Dispel
• 1 Spellskite

Boom / Bust Zoo

Ali Mirghahari

States on 10-16-2011

Modern

Creatures (22)

• 4 Tarmogoyf
• 4 Wild Nacatl
• 4 Noble Hierarch
• 4 Knight of the Reliquary
• 2 Qasali Pridemage
• 4 Bloodbraid Elf

Lands (18)

• 1 Treetop Village
• 2 Sacred Foundry
• 2 Temple Garden
• 2 Stomping Ground
• 4 Arid Mesa
• 2 Marsh Flats
• 3 Misty Rainforest
• 2 Verdant Catacombs

Spells (20)

• 4 Lightning Bolt
• 2 Forest
• 1 Plains
• 1 Mountain
• 3 Blood Moon
• 2 Lightning Helix
• 4
• 3 Path to Exile

Sideboard

• 2 Damping Matrix
• 2 Lightning Helix
• 2 Ancient Grudge
• 2 Gaddock Teeg
• 1 Ranger of Eos
• 1 Path to Exile
• 1 Volcanic Fallout
• 1 Gideon Jura
• 3 Boneyard Wurm

Counter-Cat

Jeph Foster

States on 10-16-2011

Modern

Creatures (22)

• 4 Tarmogoyf
• 1 Gaddock Teeg
• 4 Wild Nacatl
• 4 Noble Hierarch
• 4 Knight of the Reliquary
• 1 Qasali Pridemage
• 4 Bloodbraid Elf

Planeswalkers (2)

• 2 Elspeth, Knight-Errant

Lands (20)

• 1 Sacred Foundry
• 1 Temple Garden
• 1 Steam Vents
• 3 Stomping Ground
• 1 Hallowed Fountain
• 1 Horizon Canopy
• 4 Arid Mesa
• 2 Marsh Flats
• 4 Misty Rainforest
• 1 Scalding Tarn
• 1 Tectonic Edge

Spells (16)

• 4 Lightning Bolt
• 1 Forest
• 1 Plains
• 3 Lightning Helix
• 3 Bant Charm
• 4 Path to Exile

Sideboard

• 1 Arena
• 2 Meddling Mage
• 3 Flashfreeze
• 1 Gaddock Teeg
• 2 Qasali Pridemage
• 1 Tectonic Edge
• 2 Gideon Jura
• 1 Thrun, the Last Troll
• 2 Timely Reinforcements

Jund

Ryan Glackin

States on 10-16-2011

Modern

Creatures (20)

• 4 Kird Ape
• 4 Dark Confidant
• 4 Burning-Tree Shaman
• 4 Tarmogoyf
• 4 Bloodbraid Elf

Lands (18)

• 2 Swamp
• 3 Overgrown Tomb
• 3 Stomping Ground
• 2 Blood Crypt
• 4 Grove of the Burnwillows
• 4 Verdant Catacombs

Spells (22)

• 4 Lightning Bolt
• 2 Forest
• 2 Mountain
• 3 Terminate
• 4 Thoughtseize
• 3 Blightning
• 4 Punishing Fire

Sideboard

• 3
• 2 Ancient Grudge
• 3 Sudden Death
• 3 Seal of Primordium
• 4 Kitchen Finks

Analyzing The Top 4

It’s tough to analyze these decks in a meaningful way, without rehashing old advice. Should I tell you that Dark Confidant and Tarmogoyf are going to
be staples in Modern? Of course not, you know that! What I hope to find in these decklists is some of the subtle changes that we can capitalize on.
Here are some things that I noticed.

Grove of the Burnwillows $17.99
– This is making its way into multiple decklists. It’s both in the Splinter Twin deck and the Jund deck. I expect this to remain a staple
in Modern for the foreseeable future. The existence of this card affects another card that has been on the steady rise, Surgical Extraction.

Surgical Extraction $7.99
– Recently, Solar Flare has been dominating Standard, and this is one of the weapons that people have been using against it. I expect the
popularity of this card to grow as the Standard format continues to form. The demand for Surgical Extraction is compounded by its use in Legacy, and
it’s only a matter of time before the supply starts to dry up. Once you add a Modern PTQ season to these factors, the card is sure to see a price
spike. Grove of the Burnwillows / Punishing Fire is not the only thing that this card shuts down in Modern. I expect it to be used to battle a new
enemy in Modern, Snapcaster Mage.

Snapcaster Mage $29.99 (Out of Stock)
– This card has already impacted Standard and Legacy. Brian DeMars even thinks that it’s good enough to be a four-of in Vintage. I think it
would be silly not to assume that this will also impact Modern. A buddy of mine went X-0 in a Modern Tournament last week with a Snapcaster Mage Zoo
list. Yeah, I hear Snapcaster Tribal Flames is pretty dirty! I’ve been expecting to see a price dip on this guy, but it hasn’t happened
yet. When it does, I said it would be between $15-$20. I expect it to be closer to $20 because of the play that it’s going to see in Modern.

Okay, I think we trailed from analyzing the top four, so let’s get back on track with that.

Blood Moon $4.99 –
This card shot up when the Modern scene was battling with Cloudpost, and it still hasn’t gone back down. This is still a powerful effect, but I
don’t think it does enough to warrant its current price tag. I could see this falling to $3 unless Treetop Village, Grove of the Burnwillows, and
Inkmoth Nexus become too much of a problem.

Sleight of Hand Foil $4.99 (Sold Out) –
This and Serum Visions (foil 3.99) are trying to fill the role of Ponder and Preordain in the U/R combo decks. This means that foil copies will be
fetching a hefty premium. I could see these foils hitting $10 at the height of the season.

Elspeth, Knight-Errant $14.99 (Sold Out) –
We all know how much Brian Kibler loves this card. I expect this to see a lot more play as long as the format has slowed down a bit. It fits in both
aggro and control decks, and the reason why it didn’t see any play last season is because you were dead before you could cast it.

Zendikar Fetchlands $12 to $16 –
We’re in an interesting place with these. There are a number of people who still value these at $10 each. The truth is that they have gone up
since they rotated out of Standard. I expect all of these to go up in price, at least by $3 each. If you’re going to trade away a fetchland before
January, I would ask for at least $3 more than StarCityGames.com in trade.

Cascade Bluffs $14.99 (Out of Stock) –
I’ve had a roller coaster ride with filter lands. A few Extended seasons back, I bought a ton of these, thinking that they were going to be
awesome, but only a few were played, and I didn’t make any profit. Then when Modern was announced, I passed on filters and bought shocklands.
That worked out pretty well for me, but Cascade Bluffs went up to $10 apiece, so I missed the chance to capitalize on it.

I think that the only filter lands that are going to see play are ones that allow you to play Grove of the Burnwillows and an off-color, mana-intensive
spell like Cryptic Command. Cascade Bluffs will probably stay up there; Flooded Grove will probably go up; and Twilight Mire will probably go up. It
always goes up. I’m not sure exactly why. As for the other ones, they now have to compete with the Innistrad enemy duals, and I think in most
cases the Innistrad duals are better.

Pact of Negation $19.99 –
This card keeps creeping up in price (as do most playable Future Sight rares). I listed this mostly to make you aware of the price. I don’t think
that you should buy in a $20, but if you need to gap $10 to $15 on a trade, then suggest this.

Melira Combo

There’s one more deck that I want to look at before calling it a day. It’s a combo deck that uses Birthing Pod and Chord of Calling to find
its pieces. This deck was in its infancy last season, but it was still putting up decent results. It has a lot of potential, and if it takes off, I
could see the cards listed below going up in value.

Melira Combo

Aran Singh

States on 10-16-2011

Modern

Creatures (32)

• 4 Birds of Paradise
• 1 Nekrataal
• 1 Yosei, the Morning Star
• 1 Eternal Witness
• 4 Wall of Roots
• 1 Dark Confidant
• 1 Protean Hulk
• 1 Body Double
• 1 Reveillark
• 4 Kitchen Finks
• 1 Murderous Redcap
• 1 Ranger of Eos
• 1 Noble Hierarch
• 3 Viscera Seer
• 1 Fauna Shaman
• 1 Viridian Corrupter
• 1 Spellskite
• 1 Phyrexian Metamorph
• 2 Melira, Sylvok Outcast
• 1 Phantasmal Image

Lands (17)

• 2 Swamp
• 2 Overgrown Tomb
• 1 Temple Garden
• 1 Godless Shrine
• 1 Stomping Ground
• 1 Breeding Pool
• 1 Horizon Canopy
• 2 Marsh Flats
• 2 Misty Rainforest
• 4 Verdant Catacombs

Spells (11)

• 4 Forest
• 3 Chord of Calling
• 4 Birthing Pod

Sideboard

• 3 Kataki, War's Wage
• 1 Stomping Ground
• 1 Gaddock Teeg
• 2 Shriekmaw
• 4 Thoughtseize
• 1 Ethersworn Canonist
• 1 Qasali Pridemage
• 1 Obstinate Baloth
• 1 Grand Abolisher

Chord of Calling $3.99
– This card was also played in Elf Combo a few years back. They are harder to find because Commander mages have snapped up a good majority of
them. Keep an eye on this card, and try to pick them up casually; you can usually trade for them at $2 apiece.

Melira, Sylvok Outcast $1.99
– From the depths of the bulk rare boxes everywhere, a hero has arisen. Too dramatic? Yeah probably. It’s hard to make a profit on this
card because people typically value them at $1-$2. Even if you get them at $1, where are you going to sell them for more than $1? You can sell them for
$1, which means you traded for cash, but there are better cards to do this with. What I try to do is get them as add-ons to trades that I’m
already ahead in.

Reveillark $3.99 –
This is a great pickup because it will always hold value due to Commander. Reveillark decks are also often on the cusp of being really good in Extended
(does this format still exist?) and Modern. For example, there was a Splinter Twin deck in “Old” Modern that used Gifts Ungiven,
Reveillark, Deceiver Exarch, and Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker to combo off. This deck made multiple 4-0s in Magic Online Dailies. Speaking of Gifts…

Gifts Ungiven $9.99 –
Did you know that this was a $10 card? No? Neither do most of my trade partners. This card got a lot better with Snapcaster Mage, and I expect to
finally see some Gifts control decks do well in Modern.

Uncommons

Most people don’t know the secret here, but there’s a lot of value that can be found in trading for uncommons. People typically don’t
value them highly when they are trading them away, but when they need them for their deck, you can max value. I’ve never met a Kitchen Finks that
I didn’t like.

Kitchen Finks $3.99
Firespout $1.99
Path to Exile $3.99
Inquisition of Kozilek $1.99
Spell Snare $4.99 – The stock on this card just keeps going up. I wouldn’t mind having 1000 of these in a box for the future.
Remand $3.99
Lightning Helix $2.99
Dismember $5.99 – I thought being printed in the dual decks would hit this card’s price, but then I realized that every tournament Magic
player needs four, and they will forever.

That’s it for this week, folks. See you next week, hopefully with something new and interesting. Thanks for reading!

Jonathan