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New set, new draft. I tend to prefer the second release to the third, as two-set draft tends to closely mirror single-set draft. Linear strategies tend to still be rewarded over card quality, and there's much more consistency both within decks and between drafts. Dark Ascension appears to fit this trend at first glance, but in this article I plan on seeing how deep the similarities lie and what changes.

I'll repeat the same thing I said from Innistrad. The main concern here is going to be mana curve and counts, not individual card rankings. It doesn't matter if one color has the two best commons if it is overly light on playables past that point or if you have to overvalue the mediocre two-drops to ensure a functional deck.

Let's start off with a brief recap of where things were before in single-set draft:

White:

White was by far the deepest color in Innistrad. You had a full curve, lots of removal, enough good tricks to matter, and unreal uncommons.

Blue:

Blue had a reasonable amount of removal, good card draw, even more defensive cards, and a ton of options that rewarded synergy. Your cards were very situational, but in a decklist way and not a board state one.

Black:

Black was the shallowest color. You had some very good uncommons, but you were short on actual playables and heavy on conditional cards. Every draft was a case of still-had-all-these Brain Weevils.

Red:

Red's curve started off fine but got a little awkward in the three and four slot. You lacked in any real heavy hitters to follow through on your Goblin Pikers. The removal was reasonable enough to help carry through, and your uncommons were also unreal if awkwardly splashable.

Green:

Make a dude, crash, make more dudes. The color was defined by already on-curve guys that all had upsides to make them situationally giant. Telling fact: you had the only Hill Giant, and it had an upside.

Color Combinations

White-Green:

Beatdown fueled by abundant white removal, strong bodies in both colors, and Travel Preparations.

Green-Red:

Similar to white-green, but marginally worse if only because of the decreased depth of your secondary color. Your removal was less prevalent but stronger, and there was the possibility of a Moonmist flip-my-team deck.

Red-Black:

Very Zendikar-style beats. Black's powerful cards helped shore up holes in red's curve and provide some evasion.

Black-Blue:

A standard control was very solid. Blue has a ton of card draw and defensive spells, Black brings win conditions, removal, and the smaller bodies needed to stabilize the ground early that blue was lacking.

Blue-White:

Blue-white fliers, as always in every format ever.

Blue-white is also the natural fit for the Curse of the Bloody Tome mill deck, with Ghostly Possession as an extra removal spell that often makes laps of the table.

White-Red:

In my opinion this is another worse white-green tokens. You get some of the aggressive cards from red and much better removal, but without the oversized bodies, you are a dog to all of the green decks. Demonmail Hauberks away!

Red-Blue:

Burning Vengeance or mill were the two best decks here. Both were aided here by Rolling Temblor, the only non-rare sweeper.

Blue-Green and Green-Black:

This was the dredge deck. On occasion you had a blue-black-only deck that did this with a Lab Maniac, but usually you were green for Spider Spawning.

Black-White:

I never saw anyone actually doing anything super unique with this deck. Mostly the same as W/R, but black felt significantly worse than red aside from Unburial Rites.

And onto the new. Keep in mind that this set is about 2/3rds the size of Innistrad, so each individual common and uncommon is about 1.5 times as likely to show up. For example, if there are two blue common three-drops, it's closer to there being three at that slot from Innistrad.

White:

Common

Curve	Total
1
2	2	1/1 + 1/1 (Gather the Townsfolk)		2/2 → 2/1 (Loyal Cathar)
3	2	2/3 (Midnight Guard)		2/1 Flying (Niblis of the Mist)
4	1	2/2->1/1 (Elgaud Inquisitor)
5	1	3/2 Flying (Silverclaw Griffin)
6
Removal	1	Burden of Guilt
Tricks	3.5	Bar the Door	Niblis of the Mist		Break of Day	Skillful Lunge

 

Uncommon

Curve	Total
1
2	2	1/1 Flying (Niblis of the Urn)	2/2 (Thraben Heretic)
3	2	1/4 (Gavony Ironwright)	1/1 + 1/1 x2 (Lingering Souls)
4	1	2/2 Flying (Hollowhenge Spirit)
5
6

 

Removal	1.5	Niblis of the Urn	Ray of Revelation
Tricks	2	Faith's Shield	Hollowhenge Spirit

 

White gets to keep a similarly stacked curve but loses elsewhere. You no longer have near unlimited removal at common, and your tricks get significantly worse. The quality of the uncommons also drops without cards on par with Slayer of the Wicked or Fiend Hunter.

With this loss of removal you can expect a lot more combat tricks out of the various white decks. Before, you had to cut a lot of the average cards to fit in enough bodies on top of the assortment of kill spells, but now you can expect to be Village Bell Ringered or Moment of Heroismed a bit more often. Combat against an opponent with 2W up is going to be a scary prospect. It's worth noting the tricks in this set are rather mediocre compared to those from Innistrad, so I wouldn't value them very highly pack one.

Blue:

Common

Curve	Total
1
2	1	1/1 Flying (Shriekgeist)
3	2	3/6 Skaab (Headless Skaab)	2/2 Flying → 3/3 (Stormbound Geist)
4	1	2/3 Flying (Nephalia Seakite)
5
6

 

Removal	4	Bone to Ash	Chant of the Skifsang	Griptide	Nephalia Seakite
Tricks	2	Artful Dodge	Saving Grasp
Other	2	Divination	Thought Scour

 

Uncommon

Curve	Total
1
2	1	2/1 (Screeching Skaab)
3	1	2/1 Flying (Niblis of the Breath)
4	1	2/2 Flying (Tower Geist)
5	2	1/3 Flying (Soul Seizer)	4/4-> 5/5 Skaab (Relentless Skaabs)
6

 

Removal	2	Niblis of the Breath	Soul Seizer
Tricks
Other	3	Chill of Foreboding	Mystic Retrieval	Secrets of the Dead

 

Blue has very few creatures in this set. Think black from Innistrad, only your Brain Weevils are Divinations and as such are much more satisfactory. In exchange, the ones you have are very good at filling holes in the Innistrad curve, and you get even more hard removal options to set up your “gimmick” decks.

Screeching Skaab is actually unbelievably good and exactly what I want in the majority of blue decks I draft. Just as a Coral Merfolk, he is exciting, and the mill is amazing value. I expect Stormbound Geist to be unreal, but people will likely draft him and not realize he is actually one of your win condition slots and shouldn't count as a real three-drop. Be aware of what guys actually let you live until the late game.

Overall, I really like where blue lies in this set. There are a ton of enablers that let you just set up to slam the archetype-defining cards the next two packs.

P.S. How do you beat a Mystic Retrieval ever if it targets a removal spell? Fortunately, there aren't many instants or sorceries that kill guys, but Brimstone Volleys all day long are insane.

Black:

Common

Curve	Total
1
2	2	1/1 (Black Cat)	2/1 Intimidate (Highborn Ghoul)
3	3	2/2 → 4/4 (Chosen of Markov)	2/1 (Falkenrath Torturer)	2/2 (Reap the Seagraf)
4	1	2/2 → 3/3 (Sightless Ghoul)
5

 

Removal	2	Death's Caress	Tragic Slip
Tricks	1	Undying Evil
Other	2	Gravepurge	Gruesome Discovery

 

Uncommon

Curve	Total
1	1	1/1 (Skirsdag Flayer)
2
3	1	2/2 + 2/2? (Wakedancer)
4
5	1	2/2 (Farbog Boneflinger)
6	1	3/2 Flying → 4/3 (Vengeful Vampire)

 

Removal	3	Deadly Allure	Farbog Boneflinger	Skirsdag Flayer
Tricks
Other	1	Harrowing Journey

 

Black is completely transformed from Innistrad. You have an amazing curve, including Reap the Seagraf—which, given the precedent set by Moan of the Unhallowed, is absolutely unreal in blue-black. Highborn Ghoul is probably a bit awkward due to the double black cost, but Black Cat seems like very high quality if all you want to do is grind. Gravepurge is the kind of situational card I want to see: late-game value, midgame cycling. It's also a cute way to reward the dredge deck, giving it a multiple Eladamri's Call.

Your uncommons are huge beatings. All four creatures are high picks, as they are either removal, two-for-ones on board, or both. I'm not sold on Deadly Allure, and that is only partly because I'm not sold on green-black as a color combination. Flashback removal is much less exciting when it's essentially an Innocent Blood.

Red:

Common

Curve	Total
1	1	1/1 (Forge Devil)
2	2	2/1-> 3/2 (Hinterland Hermit)	2/1 (Torch Fiend)
3	1	2/1 Vampire (Erdwal Ripper)
4	1	3/3 (Russet Wolves)
5	1	4/1 → 5/2 (Nearheath Stalker)

 

Removal	4.5	Fires of Undeath	Fling	Forge Devil	Wrack with Madness	Torch Fiend
Tricks	1	Talons of Falkenrath
Other	1	Faithless Looting

 

Uncommon

Curve	Total
1
2
3	2	2/2 (Heckling Fiends)	1/1 → 2/2 (Pyreheart Wolf)
4	1	3/2 → 5/4 (Afflicted Deserter)
5
6	1	4/4 Haste Falter (Markov Warlord)

 

Removal	2	Blood Feud	Burning Oil
Tricks	2	Markov Warlord	Pyreheart Wolf
Other	1	Shattered Perception

 

First thing: You actually have a four-drop this pack and a reasonable five-drop. That makes a huge difference, especially as a Hill Giant is the real deal in this format where only green also has one.

Second thing: Wow is that a ton of removal. Red is going to be fought over heavily early on each draft, and as such, Shimmering Grotto and Traveler's Amulet are likely going to get much better pack two to help splashing.

Third thing: Faithless Looting seems very good. Looting is always very strong, and being able to upgrade four blanks is easily worth more than the card of value you invest into casting Looting.

Continuing the white analogy, your uncommons are unreal. Markov Warlord, Burning Oil, and Blood Feud are all easy first picks, and I wouldn't imagine Pyreheart Wolf isn't far behind as a multiple Falter.

Single card note: I'm really excited to cast Talons of Falkenrath, but I might just love that kind of card too much. This might be a legitimate reason to be blue-white or white-red over the allied color combinations, as they have the evasion to turn the conditional Fireball into more or less a Kessig Wolf Run. Invisible Stalker anyone?

Green:

Common

Curve	Total
1	1	1/1 → 2/2 (Young Wolf)
2	3	2/2 (Dawntreader Elk)	1/1 → 2/2 (Scorned Villager)	2/2 (Somberwald Dryad)
3	1	2/2 → 4/4 (Ulvenwald Bear)
4	1	2/3 Deathtouch Reach (Kessig Recluse)
5	1	5/5 (Hollowhenge Beast)

 

Removal	1	Crushing Vines
Tricks	3	Hunger of the Howlpack	Clinging Mists	Wild Hunger

 

Uncommon

Curve	Total
1
2	1	2/1 → 3/2 (Strangleroot Geist)
3	1	1/2 → 4/5 (Lambholt Elder)
4	1	3/3 (Briarpack Alpha)
5	1	4/5 Vigilance (Village Survivors)
6	1	4/4 → 8/8 (Gravetiller Wurm)

 

Removal	1	Briarpack Alpha
Tricks	1	Briarpack Alpha
Other	2	Grim Flowering	Tracker's Instincts

 

The loss of a pack of Werewolves and Darkthicket Wolves is going to hurt green, but it gains a ton of solid tricks to level up from Spidery Grasp. Hunger of the Howlpack is just Battlegrowth with the upside of Moldervine Cloak, which seems very good, and Wild Hunger is just going to kill people. There isn't that much to say on the common side beyond that, as you just have bodies, but it continues with the trend from Innistrad where green bashes hard.

Green probably gets the best uncommon in the set with Briarpack Alpha, which is a solid body, a Rebuke plus, and a trick all in one card. Just saying this shows how unreal the original Briarhorn was. Grim Flowering is also a nice stand-in for Spider Spawning, and Tracker's Instincts is a good enabler, so that deck will remain relatively intact despite losing a pack of the namesake card. Expect there to be more Boneyard Wurming people in your future if you like to go down this route.

Other:

I don't have much to say about the artifacts and gold cards in this set. The equipment all seems fairly mediocre, and the uncommon lords are obviously situational.

The two common lands seem very good. The equivalent quest to Haunted Fengraf targeted, but it was absolutely insane. This seems more balanced, assuming you don't tilt too hard on the variance.

Big Picture Notes:

1. Green gets much worse. You lose a pack of the heavy power cards.
2. Red rounds out very nicely and might be the new “best” color.
3. In terms of “gimmick” decks, Dredge and mill still seem very strong. For the first, you get a mix of similar incentives and enablers, while mill keeps up the clock count with Shriekgeist filling in for Curse of the Bloody Tome and Thought Scour replacing Dream Twist. Burning Vengeance probably gets worse because Secrets of the Dead isn't the same level of enabler as a source of removal, but I expect it to morph closer to blue-red control with the increase in red removal and Mystic Retrieval.
4. Black is interesting, as you get rewarded early and then have to spend two packs dealing with being in the worst color. I'm personally a fan, as this eliminates the “oops I opened a Bloodline Keeper” issue that sometimes trapped you.
5. Color pairings that get better: R/W (more incentive over W/G), R/G (Wild Hunger is unreal, plus more removal so same as R/W), U/B (huge boost to black and specifically Reap the Seagraf).
6. Color pairings that get worse: G/W (loss of the cheap bulky guys and mass of removal), U/W (very specifically loss of Silent Departure.
7. The general creature size trend of few x/3s holds.
8. Mostly because of how red and white split the removal between sets as well as how good the off-color flashback cards are in this set, I expect fixing to go up in value.

Given how deep Innistrad draft was, I expect this to only skim the surface. There isn't probably an Invisible Stalker I'm missing, but I'm sure the color dynamics of the format are going to change beyond what I can tell right now just based on the new flashback spells. Dark Ascension changes just enough to make things different while keeping the same general principles, and that makes me excited. I'm sure I'll learn a ton more in the lead up to Hawaii, and I'm expecting the results to match.