Since I wasn’t able to bring this to you during the event let’s start with a metagame breakdown:
Merfolk clearly dominated the event so let’s start with a closer look at our fishy friends. The fins posted a very strong 60.71% (82-52-6) win percentage against the rest of the field but even more impressive is that the percentage goes up to 68.29% (27-12-2) when you look at only 15+ point players. Merfolk feasted on a lot of the less common archetypes posting more than a few 100% win percentages including against Burn (5-0-0). It also posted a stellar 71.88% (11-4-1) against the popular Natural Order Progenitus including 88.89% (8-1-0) in matches between 15+ point players. However Merfolk is not without its foils as the fish posted a dismal 33.33% (6-13-2) against Zoo and 27.78% (2-6-1) against Reanimator. The Zoo match-up looked better between top players (41.67% 2-3-1) but Reanimator actually got worse (21.43% 1-5-1).
Just edging out Merfolk as the most numerous deck in the field Zoo offers the best chance for an in-depth look. Three Zoo decks made the Top 16 and an overall win percentage of 57.19% (80-59-7) suggests it as a strong metagame choice but a couple of the major match-ups are just awful. As discussed Merfolk is heavily in your favor (66.67% 13-6-2) Dredge is an even stronger 71.43% (5-2-0) and Zoo destroys Goblins (83.33% 7-1-1). However Reanimator looks to be a disaster at 16.67% (2-10-0) and Charbelcher Combo is rough at 38.46%. (5-8-0)
Natural Order Progenitus is the popular deck whose fortune changes the most when you only include 15+ players. A 59.90% (59-39-3) win percentage overall turns into a disappointing 46.00% (11-13-1) when top players are on both sides of the table. The Reanimator match-up is very strong (85.71% 6-1-0) and similar to other Tier 1 decks NO Pro beats up on the chaff. Natural Order Progenitus has a lot trouble with Merfolk (28.13% 4-11-1) and a weak match-up against Zoo (42.86% 6-8-0) a tough pair of decks to be a dog to in this event.
One interesting note from this event is the absence of the Imperial Painter variant. Only one Imperial Painter deck showed up posting a disappointing 2-3-0 record. After such an impressive showing in Dallas (78.57% 10-2-2) it is surprising to see so few of these decks in the field.
Overall Legacy is definitely a full and vibrant metagame. Worldwake has yet to make a major impact as in the Top 16 only Jace the Mind Sculptor showed up in a pair of Merfolk decks and Bojuka Bog made a cameo in Daniel Signorini’s sideboard. I expect more Worldwake cards to show up in Indy as players look for sideboard or even Main Deck answers for the creature rush strategies of Merfolk and Zoo.
See everyone in Indy!