Last time we saw that RUG Delver had become the most popular deck in Legacy and was enjoying amazing success. Maverick was the second-most popular deck and was posting favorable records as well. Sneak and Show was much less popular but had two great weekends.
Worcester Legacy Open
RUG Delver was the most popular deck again and it was extremely successful winning 59% of matches.
This time there were actually more copies of Stoneblade than Maverick but note that this includes all varieties. None were individually very popular. The blue-based versions together (U/W and Esper) made up about five percent of the field. As a whole Stoneblade put up a losing record though Esper Stoneblade the most prevalent version broke even.
Maverick was slightly less popular and slightly more successful than it had been in the previous few tournaments.
Just over five percent of people played Sneak and Show. Its win percentage was even higher than RUG's at 61%.
U/R Delver was played by the same number of players but it lost more matches than it won.
Dredge was slightly under five percent and did extremely poorly.
RUG was not only more popular than every other deck at the Invitational; it was more popular than any Legacy deck has been in any tournament in TMI history. This is the only time we've seen twenty percent of a Legacy field play the same deck. RUG's win percentage in contrast was completely unremarkable; it barely won more than half of its matches.
Reanimator in second place is interesting. Many people expected it to enjoy a resurgence following the printing of Griselbrand but for the past several Opens it really hadn't. Reid Duke's win in Worcester the previous week seems to have convinced players to bring Reanimator to Indianapolis. Like RUG however it didn't perform particularly well for them.
Maverick did extremely well this time actually winning more than sixty percent of matches. Its expected value wasn't much lower suggesting that the nine percent of people who played Maverick may have had the best deck in the room.
U/R Delver was more popular than usual but it only broke even in matches.
Sneak and Show did not put up an amazing record this time.
Stoneblade with the same number of players did. It actually did slightly better than Maverick although its EV was lower than Maverick's.
BUG was more than five percent of a field for the first time. It did not do well.
Dredge was once again about five percent and had an even worse time than in Worcester.
Indianapolis Legacy Open
A more typical thirteen percent of players brought RUG Delver to the Open itself. Its win percentage was high though not as high as it has been.
Sneak and Show made up more than ten percent of the field for the first time ever and posted a losing record for the first time in recent memory by quite a wide margin.
Maverick was typical in both popularity and performance: slightly less popular than RUG and slightly better than even.
The Open like the Invitational saw a bump in the number of Reanimator players. The deck was unsuccessful in both events.
Stoneblade is the only deck to do particularly well in both putting up the highest win percentage of any of the popular decks in either tournament. Esper remains the most popular choice.
U/R Delver is consistently coming in at about five percent of the field. This time it managed to win slightly more than it lost.
Dredge had a horrible record in both events in Indianapolis actually winning less than a third of its matches in the Open.
RUG Delver – 15.06% of field won 55.63% of matches
This time RUG was slightly behind against Maverick in a matchup that is clearly extremely close. It was behind by one game against Sneak and Show but historically that matchup appears slightly favorable. The Stoneblade matchup is another close one: dead even in games overall. RUG seems to have good matchups against Reanimator U/R Delver Dredge and BUG.
Maverick – 8.59% of field won 55.84% of matches
- 4 Knight of the Reliquary
- 4 Mother of Runes
- 4 Noble Hierarch
- 3 Qasali Pridemage
- 2 Scavenging Ooze
- 2 Stoneforge Mystic
- 1 Gaddock Teeg
- 3 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
- 1 Thrun, the Last Troll
- 2 Dryad Arbor
Maverick's overall records against all of the other popular decks are at least even. The most surprising of these is probably the Sneak and Show matchup in which Maverick was even farther ahead over the course of these three events. Its losing records were against Stoneblade by a wide margin and U/R Delver by only one game. Both matchups previously appeared to be good for Maverick but now look closer to even. Maverick did very well against both Dredge and BUG.
Sneak and Show – 7.53% of field won 51.16% of matches
As it turns out Maverick was the only deck in this list that the feared combo deck lost to in Worcester and Indianapolis although the RUG Delver matchup does appear negative overall. Sneak and Show has been doing very well against Stoneblade and U/R Delver having more modest success against Reanimator and Dredge and not many games at all against BUG.
Stoneblade – 7.18% of field won 54.63% of matches
Stoneblade doesn't seem to be going anywhere after all and did as well as ever in Indianapolis. However Maverick was the only deck among the consistently popular archetypes that Stoneblade managed to beat. The overall record is still negative. It will be interesting to see after a few more events whether Stoneblade has really adapted to deal with Maverick. Stoneblade does consistently well against Reanimator U/R and BUG. Its overall record against Dredge is slightly negative.
Reanimator – 6.94% of field won 50.00% of matches
Reanimator did well in Worcester and poorly in the two tournaments in Indianapolis averaging out to an exactly even record. This table shows us that it actually struggled against the four most popular decks: RUG Delver Maverick Sneak and Show and Stoneblade. The Sneak and Show and Maverick matchups are close. RUG and Stoneblade are consistently bad matchups. The few BUG players that showed up at the Invitational certainly didn't help Reanimator's performance; the BUG matchup looks worse than any of the others. Reanimator has good matchups against U/R Delver and Dredge.
U/R Delver – 6.00% of field won 49.54% of matches
U/R tends to lose to most of these decks as well posting favorable win percentages against just Maverick Dredge and BUG. The RUG and Sneak and Show matchups look particularly weak at least historically. U/R is behind against Maverick if we take previous data into account but still ahead against Dredge and BUG.
Dredge – 4.71% of field won 37.37% of matches
Dredge's overall win percentage was by far the worst out of all of these decks. It seems to have close possibly good matchups against Stoneblade and BUG but bad matchups against the rest. Dredge's overall record against Sneak and Show is just below even but all the others are below 40%.
BUG – 3.76% of field won 44.95% of matches
There's not much we can say about BUG since it only made a reasonably large showing at one event but it has terrible matchups against RUG Delver and Maverick which immediately calls its viability into question. It also seems to have problems with Stoneblade and U/R Delver. It looks like it beats Reanimator.
Previously RUG Delver was vastly outperforming every other deck. The Invitational showed us a metagame full of RUG in which Maverick was wildly successful. Overall it looks like both are great choices at the moment. On average they were the two most popular decks between these three events and are likely to remain that way.
The second-place deck in each individual tournament was different: Stoneblade Sneak and Show and Reanimator each saw more play than Maverick in one event. All of these are likely to remain reasonably prevalent but none have been as consistently successful as RUG and Maverick. Stoneblade has been the most successful of the three. Sneak and Show has put up several great performances but failed to do so in either event in Indianapolis. Reanimator also did poorly in Indianapolis which was the first time in months that it was popular at all.
Now that we have a few more tournaments to look at we can see that there are several competitive decks. RUG remains the best-performing one but by a much smaller margin. Claims of Griselbrand (or anything) dominating the format are premature at best. Going in to the next Legacy Grand Prix the format seems as healthy as ever. If you're in the northwest good luck at the SCG Legacy Open in Seattle. If you're going to the Grand Prix we'll see you in Atlanta!