This article actually started as a thread on www.mtgthesource.com in response to the new face of the Legacy format. A lot of data has been gathered in just a few months, and the analysis that follows was an attempt to make some sense of the new nationwide metagame before the data becomes too big to handle.

Traditionally, the East Coast was assumed to be the defining location for the "1.5" metagame. However, I suggest that we define where people are playing throughout the country, and then analyze the stats on the decks that are being used to win. Basing this analysis on actual reports from players nationwide, I have organized the first part of the data as follows:

By MONTH, STATE , # of TOURNAMENTS, # of LOCATIONS, and AVERAGE # PLAYERS.

SEPTEMBER 2004

NY	3 Tournaments	3 Locations	27 Players
AZ	3 Tournaments	3 Locations	11 Players
FL	1 Tournaments	1 Locations	13 Players
WA	1 Tournaments	1 Locations	19 Players
CA	4 Tournaments	1 Locations	25 Players

OCTOBER 2004

NY	7 Tournaments	2 Locations	16 Players
AZ	5 Tournaments	3 Locations	11 Players
TX	6 Tournaments	3 Locations	22 Players
CA	4 Tournaments	1 Locations	22 Players
VA	3 Tournaments	1 Locations	23 Players
MA	2 Tournaments	1 Locations	28 Players
OR	1 Tournaments	1 Locations	10 Players

NOVEMBER 2004 (as of 11-11-2004)

NY	3 Tournaments	3 Locations	16 Players
TX	1 Tournaments	1 Locations	25 Players
MA	1 Tournaments	1 Locations	8 Players
CA	1 Tournaments	1 Locations	26 Players

Currently, Legacy appears to see play in nine states (based on who is reporting) which can be physically divided into Regions:

EAST COAST Region:
NY, MA, VA, FL

CENTRAL Region:
TX, AZ

WEST COAST Region:
CA, OR, WA

By State (and to-date) the greatest numbers of tournaments are held as follows:

#1: New York
#2: California
#3: Arizona
#4: Texas
#5: Virginia and Massachusetts (tied)
#6: Florida, Washington, Oregon (tied)

By Region (and to-date), the metagame breaks out into the following:

EAST COAST Region:
19 Tournaments averaging 19 players each

CENTRAL Region:
15 Tournaments averaging 13 players each

WEST COAST Region:
11 Tournaments averaging 24 players each

I found it interesting that the numbers of tournaments held are gradually reduced as you travel from East to West. The West Coast has larger states but fewer tournaments, though the tournaments that are held seem to host more players. The Central and West Coast Regions tend to have "pinpoint" data, while the East Coast has a broader spectrum. In other words, as of this writing the West Coast has only three locations that regularly report play, while the East Coast has at least six. Certain East Coast and Central States have reported as many as three different locations in a single month, while a state like California only reports one location in any month.

Can one location within a state determine the metagame for that state? I say yes - if that's the only data we have available. If only one location in a state sees play, then that location defines the metagame for that state. Washington and Oregon have only reported one each, so in a sense Southern California is defining the West Coast Metagame.

Based on these numbers, I believe that some more weight needs to be given to Regions outside of the East Coast when defining the metagame. From here, we can start looking at which decks are winning in the various Regions and (perhaps) come to some reasonable metagame conclusions.

The definition of a "tournament" in this article is "any Tournament reported that included a listing of the Top 4 decks." as listed on www.mtgthesource.com. One tournament did not report a location and was dropped from the analysis. It's entirely possible that there are tournaments going on weekly in many areas, but I was only able to use what was posted (plus what I know about Southern California).

This analysis looks at the quantity of players, and certain metrics available from the data regarding decks. What it cannot measure is the quality of the players. The attempt here is to define where tournaments are being held, in what numbers the players are attending, and what decks are winning. While I'm certain that more tournaments are being held than have been reported (and probably in other states as well), it still seems clear that certain states and regions report on a regular basis. I think we can be reasonably safe in saying that there are three main areas of play (East, Central, West) and that there are certain states that report tournaments to the extent that we can sketch boundaries for three "metagame-defining" regions on a map.

The average number of players attending is important because we can quickly see where the greatest range of decks might be played at any given time. I also felt it was critical to define where people are playing. The next step in this process was to identify the decks that had won (or Top 4'd) in the various states.

As an example of how the East Coast and West Coast metagames differ, based on what I found in the Top 4 data, the various reports, and my experience in Southern California, I can say with confidence that some decks that are dominant on the East Coast (like Angry Tradewind Survival, or "ATS"), may not do well on the West Coast. With decks like The San Diego Zoo (see list below) utilizing fat, non-targetable creatures and a lot of burn, ATS would have a very hard time.

San Diego Zoo -- G/R/w
by Chris Montero and Mike Torrisi

4 Goblin Legionnaire

4 Nimble Mongoose
4 Blastoderm
3 Werebear
3 Savannah Lions

4 Lightning Bolt
4 Incinerate
4 Fire / Ice

4 Swords to Plowshares
2 Tithe

4 Isochron Scepter

4 Plateau
4 Taiga
4 Savannah
3 Wooded Foothills
2 Windswept Heath
1 Mountain
1 Forest
1 Plains

Side:
4 Hidden Gibbons
3 Mother of Runes

2 Honorable Passage
2 Ray of Revelation
2 Naturalize
2 Artifact Mutation

This list went 28-0-2 and, winning at least four tournaments (and came in second once, after an intentional draw in the finals with Landstill, where tiebreakers were in favor of Landstill).

San Diego is very competitive and the tournaments are all sanctioned. Landstill always does well there. Enchantress (using Regrowth instead of Replenish), Old-School Sligh, and UrPhid also do well.

ATS
By Colin Chilbert, aka Diablos on www.mtgthesource.com

4 Windswept Heath
2 Wooded Foothills
4 Tropical Island
1 Taiga
2 Savannah
5 Forest
4 Birds of Paradise
3 Wall of Roots
1 Rofellos, Llanowar Emissary
4 Survival of the Fittest
3 Enlightened Tutor
4 Brainstorm
4 Force of Will
2 Mana Leak
4 Tradewind Rider
2 Quirion Ranger
2 Eternal Witness
1 Seedborn Muse
1 Gilded Drake
1 Mystic Snake
1 Squee, Goblin Nabob
1 Anger
1 Genesis
1 Masticore
1 Uktabi Orangutan
1 Kami of Ancient Law
1 Spore Frog

Sideboard:
2 Null Rod
2 Choke
1 Dense Foliage
2 Naturalize
1 Caller of the Claw
1 Back to Basics
1 Goblin Sharpshooter
1 Worship
1 Propaganda
1 Silent Arbiter
1 Absolute Law
1 Spike Feeder

I think we will find that there are certain decks that do well across the country, and those are the decks that I believe will rise to the "Tier 1" of the new format.

I looked at the tournament results by Region to see what was winning.

Date	State	Region	Finish	Deck Name
9/04	NY	East	1st	UW Fish
			2nd	GW Stompy
			3rd	Two-Land Belcher with Goblin Welder
			4th	Survival Control
	AZ	Cent	1st	Survival Advantage
			2nd	PT Junk
			3rd	WW
			4th	GW Elvish Piper Beats
	NY	East	1st	R/G Survival Advantage
			2nd	ATS
			3rd	Sui Black w/Green
	NY	East	1st	Hulk Smash
			1st	U/W with Morphling
			3rd	UG Madness
			4th	ATS
	AZ	Cent	1st	B/U Reanimator
			2nd	B/U Hulk Smash
			3rd	Goblin Sligh
			4th	Ravager Affinity
	AZ	Cent	1st	Sligh
			2nd	Hulk Smash
			3rd	Landstill
			4th	UGR Madness
	FL	East	1st	Sligh
			2nd	Survival Advantage
			3rd	Fires
			4th	Elves (w/Biorhythm)
	WA	West	1st	G/W Beats
			2nd	Ravager Affinity
			3rd	Broodstar Affinity (w/Cranial Platings)
			4th	Stompy (mono G)
Date	State	Region	Finish	Deck Name
10/04	AZ	Cent	1st	Survival Advantage
			2nd	Special-K
			3rd	R/W Control (White Lightning?)
			4th	Elves!
	NY	East	1st	BBS
			2nd	Life Plunge
			3rd	GW Beats
			4th	Sligh
	OR	West	1st	BGr Two-Land Belcher
			2nd	BBS (w/Vedalken Shackles and Mishra's Factories main)
			3rd	UW Control
			4th	BUG Hulk Smash
	TX	Cent	1st	The Rock
			2nd	Goblin Sligh
			3rd	The Rock
			4th	U/r Fluke Fish
	VA	East	1st	WW (Weathered Wayfarer w/Enlightened Tutor)
			2nd	BUG Control
			3rd	Goblin Sligh
			4th	Wildfire
	NY	East	1st	U/r Landstill
			1st	U/w Landstill
			3rd	U/w Landstill (w/Exalted Angels)
			4th	B/w Control
	AZ	Cent	1st	U/W Control
			1st	U/R Scepter Counter/Burn
			3rd	BBS
			4th	Random jank
	TX	Cent	1st	Survival Advantage
			1st	BBS w/Crucible of Worlds
			3rd	Stompy
			4th	Tradewind Rider
	AZ	Cent	1st	ATS
			2nd	B/G Survival of the Fittest w/Living Death (not The Rock)
			3rd	WW
			4th	Elves!
	MA	East	1st	UW Control
			2nd	The Rock
			3rd	BBS
			4th	Belcher
	TX	Cent	1st	ATS
			2nd	The Rock
			3rd	WW
			4th	UG Madness
	NY	East	1st	ATS
			2nd	U/W Control
			3rd	U/W Control
			4th	Reanimator
	MA	East	1st	U/W Control
			2nd	Goblin Sligh
			3rd	Landstill
			4th	Landstill
	Not Reported	Cent?	1st	BUG Hulk
			2nd	WW
			3rd	Hulk Smash
			4th	Reanimator
	AZ	Cent	1st	Sligh
			2nd	Belcher
			3rd	G/W Elvish Piper Beats
			4th	B/G Jank
	NY	East	1st	MunkieTog (Burning Tog)
			2nd	ATS (no Enlightened Tutor)
			3rd	WW
			4th	Belcher (without Gamble)
	TX	Cent	1st	ATS
			1st	ATS
			3rd	Wake
			4th	Goblin Sligh
	VA	East	1st	WW
			2nd	ATS
			3rd	U/W Scepter Control
			4th	BBS/g
	CA	West	1st	Landstill
			2nd	San Diego Zoo
			3rd	Sligh
			4th	Super Gro
	TX	Cent	1st	Hulk Smash
			2nd	Enchantress
			3rd	U/R Control
			4th	Sligh
	NY	East	1st	UG Madness
			1st	Ugr Madness
			3rd	UB Control (w/Cranial Extraction and Lobotomy)
			4th	UR Landstill
	NY	East	1st	Aluren
			2nd	WW
			3rd	WW
			4th	U/w Control
	AZ	Cent	1st	Survival Advantage
			2nd	U/W Control with Moats
			3rd	Sui Black
			4th	Affinity
	NY	East	1st	UG Madness
			1st	Turboland
			3rd	Ugr Madness
			4th	Landstill
	TX	Cent	1st	Bio Enchantress
			1st	Ponza
			1st	Turbochant
			1st	Bug Control
Date	State	Region	Finish	Deck Name
11/04	TX	Cent	1st	Bio Enchantress
			1st	ATS
			1st	The Rock
			1st	The Rock
	NY	East	1st	5cRexur
			1st	R/G Survival Advantage
			1st	R/G Survival Advantage
			1st	Brain Freeze
	NY	East	1st	ATS
			1st	Super Gro
			3rd	Zombies
			3rd	BigGreen.Dec (Stompy?)
	NY	East	1st	ATS
			1st	WW
			3rd	Survival Advantage
			4th	UG Madness
	MA	East	1st	Sligh
			2nd	Red Zone Survival
			3rd	Goblin Sligh
			4th	Sliver Queen Coalition Victory Rock
	MA	East	1st	Sliver Queen Coalition Victory Rock
			1st	U/R Fish
			1st	U/R Trix
			1st	G/W/r Survival
	NY	East	1st	U/G Madness
			2nd	The Rock
			3rd	Hulk Smash
			4th	Goblin Sligh

If more than one deck is listed in a particular finishing slot, then that represents a prize-split situation. Not listed in the mix are the results from Southern California, which I have from personal contact with players in that location.

The first thing I noticed from glancing at the data was that Sligh, ATS, Survival, and U/W Control win a lot. Goblin Welder Survival (known as Survival Advantage) and ATS show up at the top often. Hulk Smash (a Psychatog based deck) and WW (White Weenie) make several showings.

The results were pretty consistent throughout the country, so I compiled the decks that were finishing in the Top 4 and took into account information from approximately sixty tournaments since September 2004.

It was originally my intention to break these down by region, but it became clear that there was a good spread throughout the country (except for some decks that didn't appear in certain regions, for example: ATS has not placed in the Top 4 in the West Coast Region).

Seeing the number of wins for certain decks may not be a reason to place it in Tier 1, but the numbers are compelling. Take, for example Sligh, which had more Top 4 placements than any other deck. This may be due to the number of people playing the deck (its low cost is a big factor). Still, I wouldn't rule it out of the Tier 1 (because it's clearly viable and it is consistent).

The following question arose regarding Sligh:
"This does post interesting questions as to why Sligh (variants) stay the most dominant in the top 4. I assume it is because it is decent against the current metagame and that anyone can afford to play the deck."

Sligh is inexpensive and easy to play. If well built and piloted by a good player, it can finish in the top 4 often. Also, because of its ease of use and availability, it shows up in greater numbers at every tournament. Of the seventeen tournaments listed where Sligh showed up, it took first place eight times!

The problem I see with Sligh is that everyone has an opinion about what the "optimal build" is. We almost need to have a primer for it that lists the three variants (Goblin, Old School, and Old School with Isochron Scepters). They each appear to do equally well. With a primer in place, players could select what they like of the several builds and then make their own modifications (without cluttering various discussion boards with eight different threads).

Where do you draw a line in a "first guess" for Tier 1 decks? That's open for discussion, but I would pay particular attention to the first ten Archetypes listed below as a starting point.

Determining how many "First-Place Finishes" a deck had is difficult because there are Top 4 Splits often. I was going to put a "Number of First-Place finishes" next to each deck - but I cover that a little later.

Master List:

Deck_Name (Total_Number_of_Top_Four_Placings)

• Sub_Category_Name (Number_of_Top_Four_Placings)

Sligh (17)

• Goblin (6)
• Old School (6)
• Old School w/Scepter & Fire/Ice (5)

Control (15)

• BBS/w (6)
• BBS (5)
• UW Scepter (3)
• BBS/g (1)

Landstill (15)

• Urw (7)
• UR (2)
• UW (2)
• Unknown Color Scheme (4)

Survival (13)

• RG Advantage (9)
• Control (2)
• RGw Survival (1)
• BG (1)

ATS (12)

GW Stompy (11)

• GWr (San Diego Zoo) (5)
• GW (4)
• Elvish Piper (2)

Madness (9)

• UG (6)
• Ugr (3)

Hulk Smash (9)

• Tog (8)
• Burning Tog (1)

WW (8)

• Unknown Schema (6)
• Wayfarer (2)

The Rock (7)

Belcher (Two-land) (5)

Fish (4)

• UR (2)
• UW (1)
• Urw (1)

Affinity (4)

• Arcbound Ravager (2)
• Broodstar (1)
• Unknown Schema (1)

Enchantress (4)

• Bio (3)
• Regrowth (1)

BUG Control (3)

Mono-G Stompy (3)

Elves (3)

Reanimator (3)

UrPhid (3)

BW Braids (3)

Super GRO (2)

UR Scepter-Counter/Burn (2)

Sliver Queen Coalition Rock (2)

• Made it Once to the Top 4:
  Turboland
• 5c Rexur
• Brain Freeze
• Zombies
• UR Trix
• Sui Black w/Green
• Fires
• Life Plunge
• Wildfire
• BW Control
• Aluren
• Wake
• Sui Black
• Ponza
• Turbochant
• PT Junk
• Special K
• RW Control
• Tradewind Rider
• Random Jank (2)

My first guess at the top contenders in the format would be:

• Sligh
• Landstill
• Survival
• ATS
• Control
• GW Stompy
• Madness
• Hulk Smash
• WW
• The Rock

Why did I select the top 10? Because you have to draw a line somewhere, and the field is still so new that I didn't want to leave some decks out of the running. Would you draw a different line?

Well, if you'd rather see the decks with only double-digit numbers in the top-4, then the most likely contenders for the Tier 1 are:

• Sligh
• Landstill
• Survival
• ATS
• Control
• GW Stompy

Conclusions:
Well, it's still very early to tell. However:

While I was familiar with the power of Landstill and GW Stompy, and I had my eye on UW Scepter Control, I was surprised to see Sligh at (or near) the top. I have also determined that I need to "rethink" ATS and RG Survival Advantage on the West Coast because they post tremendous winning numbers in other regions (in fact, they are the best performers in the country).

Regarding decks utilizing Survival of the Fittest, I almost put ATS under the "Survival" Archetype, but I decided that ATS really needed to have it's own section because it plays differently than the other Survival-based decks. I have tested and played ATS, and I must say that I love the way this deck plays, but it has never done well in San Diego so we don't use it. However, the data analysis shows that if ATS is in a Top 4 it also tends to finish in first place. It's one of only a couple of decks that performed like that, and while it appears to have tough matchups (Hulk Smash, RG Survival Advantage, mono Black), I'm still impressed by it's results in the Central and East Coast regions. It's making me take another look at the deck.

Control decks are doing well, as shown here:

• UW Scepter (finished 1st: 2 out of 3 = 67%)
• BBS/w (finished 1st: 2 out of 6 = 33%)
• BBS (finished 1st: 1 out of 5 = 20%)
• BBS/g (finished 1st : 1 out of 1 = 100%, which is skewed because it only appears once in the top 4)

There was a recent tournament report that listed U/W Scepter Control as the winner, but the results were not used in my analysis because the information was outside of my cutoff date.

Just to see what it would do to the data, however, I added that first place finish to the Control Deck numbers below. It made U/W Scepter Control appear to be the most consistent first-place finisher of all the Control decks (i.e., whenever U/W Scepter Control achieves the Top 4, it is most likely to win the whole event):

• UW Scepter (3 of 4 = 75%)
• BBS/w (2 of 6 = 33%)
• BBS (1 of 5 = 20%)
• BBS/g (1 of 1 = 100% --skewed because it only appears once)

I see this as significant because U/W Scepter finishes first in 75% of the tournaments in which it places in the top 4. This would make me confident in saying that U/W Scepter is the best current build of Control.

Also, with a minimum of eight cards being different (between UW Scepter and other Control builds), U/W Scepter may deserve to be listed under its own archetype. The only issue I have with this is that BBS, BBS/w, and UW would then be removed from the top contending decks, which I think is a mistake (Control decks have posted numbers that deserve to be listed in the top tier). What I did to solve this issue was to create a Category/Archetype called "CONTROL" that covers BBS, BBS/w, BBS/g, and UW Scepter.

I have posted the "First-Place Finishers" below because it is helpful to see the number of times a particular deck takes first place (compared to the number of Top 4 finishes it had). Please keep in mind that many of the tournaments reported Top 2 or Top 4 splits. In those cases, I have counted all of the decks involved as coming in "First". Thus, a single tournament might have had four "First Place" decks. That being said, here is the raw data:

By Archetype (which includes all variants):

• Sligh (8 of 17 = 47%)
• Survival (8 of 13 = 61.5%)
• ATS (8 of 12 = 67%)
• Control (6 of 15 = 40%)
• GW Stompy (5 of 11 = 45.4%)
• Landstill (4 of 15 = 27%)
• Madness (4 of 9 = 44.4%)
• Hulk Smash (4 of 9 = 44.4%)
• WW (3 of 8 = 37.5%)
• The Rock (3 of 7 = 43%)
• BW Braids (3 of 8 = 37.5%)
• Fish (2 of 4 = 50%)
• Enchantress (2 of 4 = 50%)
• Belcher (1 of 5 = 20%)
• BUG Control (1 of 3 = 33.3%)
• Super GRO (1 of 2 = 50%)
• Reanimator (1 of 3 = 33.3%)
• UR Scepter-Counter/Burn (1 of 2 = 50%)
• Sliver Queen Coalition Rock (1 of 2 = 50%)

If we wanted to see only those decks that finished in first place four times or more, this yields:

• ATS (8 of 12 = 67%)
• Survival (8 of 13 = 61.5%)
• Sligh (8 of 17 = 47%)
• GW Stompy (5 of 11 = 45.4%)
• Madness (4 of 9 = 44.4%)
• Hulk Smash (4 of 9 = 44.4%)
• Control (6 of 15 = 40%)
• Landstill (4 of 15 = 27%)

The numbers show that these eight decks are fairly consistent throughout the country. They also confirm that RG Survival Advantage and ATS appear to be pretty evenly matched, with Sligh in the mix as the red-headed-step-child.

Note that Survival was built as "RG Advantage" 7 out of 8 (87.5%) times, "Madness" was UG 3 out of 4 (75%), and "GW Stompy" was actually GWr ("San Diego Zoo") 4 out of 5 (80%). Earlier I gave the numbers for Control.

So if I were going to run one of these archetypes in a tournament today, I would sift the sub-categories as follows (based on their ability to take first place):

• UW Scepter over BBS/w, BBS, and BBS/g
• Survival Advantage over other Survival Builds
• UG Madness over UGr Madness
• GWr San Diego Zoo over GW Stompy

Also, if I were to venture a tentative "first guess", I would say that the following eight decks represent the top tier of the current nationwide Legacy metagame:

• ATS
• Survival Advantage
• Old School Sligh
• GWr San Diego Zoo
• UG Madness
• Hulk Smash
• UW Scepter Control (some players will argue for BBS/w)
• Landstill

David Hernandez
gomcse@thevine.net