Then it hit me, it is not who you lose to, it's when you lose. That may not make a whole lot of sense, but it is very important to win your first 2-3 rounds before taking a loss. This is not only important to give you more security in your chances of winning the tournament, but to help your tiebreakers.

There's nothing more annoying than winning 5-6 rounds in a row, then trying to draw into the Top 8, only to be stopped by your bad tiebreakers. What does losing your first round have to do with this?

Well, lets look at it this way. Everybody basically plays to make the top 8. Normally, 2 losses won't do it for you, so you have to win all but one and you can draw in.

The longer you go undefeated, the better your opponents are. Agreed? Now take into consideration that after the first few rounds, you are playing against people that will keep playing in the tournament and win more. However, if you lose your first round and start the day off with those that are 0-1, then you be beating everybody else out of contention for the top 8. Two losses usually do not make the top 8, and it's not very encouraging to keep playing after losing your first 2 rounds. So lets say that your opponents drop after losing for the second time.

Since tiebreakers are based on your opponent's Win/Loss percentages combined, you want to be paired up with people doing very well. At States, I had some of the best tiebreakers because I beat some really good people who were undefeated at the time. That means, they were on top of the tournament until I came around.

So, if your first loss comes in the fourth round, you will be 3-1. Your opponents would have records something like 1-2 (drop), 3-1, 3-1, and 4-0. That's really good for your breakers to have opponents that are doing so well. The ideal breakers is for your opponents to all be 3-1 at this point, with their only losses coming from you.

So, you need all of your opponents to finish the tournament in the top 32, which will give you decent tiebreakers. This will ensure you into the Top 8, which may just win you the tournament. Imagine that, you could win a tournament based on how well your OPPONENTS did. They won, and that sneaked you into the top 8.

On the other side of the coin, after starting the tournament 0-1, you are faced with being kicked out of the top 8 a lot sooner. So, if you are 3-1 at the end of the 4th round, your opponent's records may look something like this. 4-0, 0-2 (drop), 1-2 (drop), 2-2, (drop). That is not the best case scenario right there, but it's realistic. Even then, you will never reach the high tiebreakers that your competitors have. After all, they won their first round and have played people that are winning.

The combined wins of someone who lost their first round is 7, the combined wins of the person who won their first round is 11. That's a lot of difference there, since their opponents will keep playing while yours just gave up after the first few rounds.

I'm not very talented at math, but here are the tiebreakers I got. Keep in mind a few things, this is based on the records I showed up top (given, all games were won or lost in 2). Also keep an open mind that I suck at math (even with a calculator) and I don't know how the computer registers people (for tiebreakers) that dropped from a tournament.

Lost first round .291
Didn't lose till fourth round .687

Who do you think will have a better chance at making the top 8? That's only a 39.6% difference, it's not like THAT would matter. After all, I've been edged out of the top 8 by one percent before, it's not like 40 would make that much of a difference.

After losing the first round, I almost want to quit playing in the tournament. You have THE WORST shot at getting into the top 8 at that point. Think about it, first you have to win 4-5 rounds in a row and THEN hope your tiebreakers were good enough.

Don't get me wrong, you still have a good chance at making the top 8 after losing the first round, but you don't want to try to draw in. You need to be ahead on points, so if you finish a 7 round tournament at 5-1-1, you will be beaten out by people who finished 6-1. If you lose your first round, you are as good as DEAD trying to draw in.

As well though, try to remember this when you are playing and you lose your first two rounds, please keep playing. Please, because you are helping out those that are still trying to make the top 8. If they get two losses, then drop. You will be thanked later on in their tournament reports.

What's even more annoying is playing all day and losing only ONCE the entire day, yet still not being allowed to play in the top 8 just because you had a bad round too early. While I agree with the system that tiebreakers are based on, I don't think it's fair sometimes. So, from my perspective, it's the unfair way of being fair.

So, if you're looking on the nice sheet that says that you have 15 points going into the 7th round, remember that if you lost early, you may want to play out the final round rather than trying to draw in. I had an opponent like this at States, he tried draw with me in the last round and didn't make the top 8 as a result. It's hard to not feel sympathy for the guy, but they should have known better. I hope now, you'll be a little more informed as to when you should try to draw in.

Until next time,

Jeff Wrobleski
wfamily@airmail.net