The exciting story continues...

I sat down for the second draft thinking that I didn't want to waffle on colors like I did the day before. That indecision left me with a shallow card pool, forcing me to play some suboptimal cards - not exactly the goal for a Nationals draft.

My first pick was an easy Hideous Laughter. In the next pack, there wasn't much Black, so I opted for the most powerful off color card, Cage of Hands. Another Cage immediately afterwards and I was pretty certain I'd be playing White. Fourth pick, I had the choice between a Harsh Deceiver or Kodama's Might. Even though I had vowed not to waver on color before the draft, I caved in and took the Might - it's just the more powerful card. The rest of the pack dried up fairly quickly after a pair of Otherworldly Journeys and a late Sakura-Tribe Elder.

Betrayers started with a tough choice - Budoka Pupil or Horobi's Whisper. I was getting a better Green than Black signal, but Laughter was more powerful than any of my Green cards and Whisper could be spliced onto the Otherworldly Journeys. In the end, I took Whisper, but I'm still not sure which of the two was correct. Afterwards, I didn't see much Black and I was getting passed good Green including Matsu-Tribe Sniper so I shrugged my shoulders and settled into W/G.

During deck building I strongly considered sticking to two colors, but I did have a Sakura-Tribe Elder and an Elder Pine of Jukai, so there was a little room to toy with a third color. Also the G/W build had no way to handle utility creatures, so the Hideous Laughter could be integral to winning any long game against such annoying cards as Kitsune Diviner. I felt like my deck wasn't great and I needed a 2-1 or better so I went with the riskier build and just hoped that luck was on my side. It occurred to me after the deck build that I probably should have run Whisper too - I have the Arcane spells to splice it onto and it only needs one Swamp to get going, but I would have to settle for sideboarding it.

Here's the deck:

1 Sakura-Tribe Elder
1 Matsu-Tribe Sniper
1 Shinen of Life's Roar
1 Kitsune Loreweaver
1 Split-Tail Miko
1 Elder Pine of Jukai
1 Moonwing Moth
1 Moonlit Strider
1 Sakura-Tribe Springcaller
2 Kami of the Tattered Shoji
2 Nightsoil Kami
1 Scaled Hulk
1 Kami of the Honored Dead

1 Kodama's Might
2 Otherworldly Journey
2 Cage of Hands
1 Inner Calm, Outer Strength
1 Hideous Laughter

7 Plains
7 Forest
4 Swamp

Relevant Sideboard: Horobi's Whisper, Death Denied, Rending Vines, Lantern Kami, Kami of False Hope.

Not exactly something to be excited about - I thought that my run at Nationals was over. My deck was three colors with four off color lands for just one spell, along with a bunch of creatures with super high toughness, but not much offense to speak of besides my trio of 6cc thugs.

I always agonize over the small decisions at the end of deckbuilding since these choices can change everything - in Barcelona I lost a critical game because I had cut Tangle at the last minute which I could have fetched up with Planar Portal. Speaking of Fog effects, I wondered if the False Hope should make the cut since I had four ways to Soulshift it back, nothing to sneeze at in a racing game, but I just didn't know what to cut (maybe Loreweaver since I was less aggressive?) so I left it on the sidelines.

Paul Rietzl told me he always runs Lantern Kami, but I just didn't think it fit in with my more defensively focused deck.

Here goes nothing...

Round 8: Irvine, David Ft Lauderdale 1771 Elo Prediction: 82%
Game one David double mulliganed and was never in the game, just discarding gigantic Green and Black creatures as my Tattered Shoji chugged away. He played his first creature and I finished him the next turn with Scaled Hulk casting Inner Calm, Outer Strength on Hulk, then Otherworldly Journey on his blocker, splicing Kodama's Might on Hulk. HULK SMASH!

Everything he discarded was quite large so I sideboarded out the Laughter for Death Denied, figuring that we would trade our higher casting cost creatures, setting up a late game where I could Denied to get my guys back and win a war of attrition.

Game two, I was on the offensive early, but he threatened to outrace me with a Painwracker Oni (at least he had no Ogre). I had his Scaled Hulk Caged, but he also had a Petalmane Baku and a Nightsoil Kami. My hand had two Otherworldly Journeys and I was hoping to use them to throw off his Oni math. The race was on, but he upped the ante with a Maga, Traitor to Mortals with X=7 and then a Sink into Takenuma for all but one card in my hand (I kept a Journey). I had the chance to move the Cage to his Painwracker, but I was hoping he would lose all his creatures when on the Oni plan and I wasn't sure I could beat his Green fat otherwise.

Anyway, it came down to a board where I was at 1 and he had a tapped Painwracker, Sakura-Tribe Springcaller, and a 7/7 Maga. I had Nightsoil Kami and a Springcaller of my own with Might and Journey in hand. Since he had no non-Swamp cards in hand and was at 6 life, he actually had no great blocks. Let a guy through and he would lose to Might. Block and I could Journey a creature on upkeep to kill Painwracker. Maga blocked Nightsoil and Springcaller blocked its twin. I Mighted the Springcaller to kill his and Nightsoil got back a Tattered Shoji which I then played. On his upkeep Maga took an Otherworldly Journey and Painwracker was forced to sacrifice himself. Maga came back as a 1/1 at end of turn. After that it was easy to finish him off.

5-2-1

Josh Ravitz, who was sitting at the table next to me, commented that my deck didn't look very good. Thanks for the vote of confidence Josh!

Round 9: Cuvelier, John Rating 1941 Elo Prediction: 64%
John asked me right off the bat if I have seen Ben Stark's deck. He told me that it was insane with Seshiro, double Sachi, double Summons and boatloads of burn.

Yikes!

I got a turn 2 Sniper and since John's first two plays were Island and Plains, that's about as good as it gets. He doesn't play a third land and looks frustrated, but I couldn't tell if it was for real or if he was just bluffing mana screw to induce the Sniper attack into a Verdict or instant 1/1. I respected the possibility of Verdict and waited for my other creatures to come online to start the assault. The screw was for real, however, as he started discarding the next turn. He never came back and the game was mine.

Game two, I got a fairly quick start and did some early damage, but he stabilized with Cloudhoof Kirin and Honden of Cleansing Flame. I started to swarm with my ragtag get along gang, but it wasn't going anywhere quickly. He played Oyobi, Who Split the Heavens and milled me for seven. Wow, nice flyers! My Pine Jukai was actually turning into a liability at this point with a real possibility of decking me. What it did help with, however, was to let me know that my Green Shinen was somewhere in my next 6 cards. I Cage the Oyobi and managed to keep on hitting in for a few net points a turn, hoping to draw Shinen before he drew a spirit or trick. I manage to draw the Shinen for the win two turns before he would have drawn Keiga, the Tide Star!

6-2-1

So far so good, but it's annoying that I would likely have to play Stark's sick R/G next.

Round 10: Faber, Shaun Hartford 1831 Elo Prediction: 77%
Instead I faced Shaun! Shaun tells me Stark's R/G was insane, but I guess somehow he beat him.

Hrmmm... this scared me a bit about how good Shaun's deck must be.

An early Shinen on my side took out a few of his creatures thanks to Child of Thorns and Inner Calm, Outer Strength. He used two Freed from the Reals to lock down my fatties. At some point, Sean got aggressive using Veil of Secrecy to push his Raving Oni-Slave through for 3 points, sending me to low single digits. Luckily, I could hit him back to 5 in the air and then send his Oni Slave on a Journey to another World, dealing 3 on the way out and 3 on the way back in for the win. NSS! (A term I have heard bandied about at Neutral Ground standing for "Nice Slave Stupid!" - no offense Shaun)

Game two I locked down the ground and get Sniper to handle the air. Shaun looks resigned. I am slowing plinking away in the air with Tattered Shoji and he never got a way to stop me so I pull out the sweep of the table.

When I checked the Wizards coverage a few days later I notice that Shaun went 6-1 in Limited, so I guess I was his only loss. Maybe the Slave is good after all?

7-2-1

Round 11: De Rosa, Antonino Player's Club 1945 Elo Prediction: 44%
This is the first match in the tournament where Elo determines that I am the underdog.

In addition to that, this matchup is extremely bad for my deck. My deck ramps up on mana to throw out some very powerful disruption spells and finishes w/ a Dragon or Ink Eyes. His deck ramps almost as quickly (and sometimes faster as we'll see), has counters for my spells, artifact mana to make Cloud a less devastating blow, and Cranial after sideboard to go after my finishers so I can disrupt, but have nothing to back it up to finish him with. Plus he has Meloku, which we already know is a bad thing.

Game one he gets turn 2 Talisman of Dominance, turn 3 Tron set, Triskelion. I have a choice and I think that I chose poorly in retrospect. That he tapped out so early made me think he didn't have counters or maybe he had Rewinds but was missing his second Blue mana. I had 5 lands out with Death Cloud, Decay and two Elders in hand.

I can Death Cloud for 2 to kill Triskelion, break up the Tron and make him discard two cards. After the dust settled he would have a Talisman and a Tron piece of his choice along with three cards in hand. I would have 3 lands out and an Elder in my hand and Top. It was good for sure, but I just felt that I wouldn't really be that ahead in that situation. I would need to draw a threat very soon or else he might even recover faster and I would lose. I got greedy and attacked with Witness I had on the board, he blocks, I Decay to finish the Triskelion and I Elder, hoping I can just Cloud away his whole side next turn. Well... I did cast Cloud next turn, but it was controlled by Antonino so it wasn't very good - that's right, he had a turn 4 Mindslaver, plus activation mana.

Waiting on the Cloud most likely cost me the game.

I guess I should have thought it through more. Any Tron piece would allow him to get a Slaver off and that alone is enough to make me want to go for it. Another Triskelion or even Memnarch would be no problem. Even Oblivion Stone wouldn't be so bad. Also on another note, I probably should not have Decayed the Triskelion while going on my original plan. If I am planning to Cloud next turn anyway, I may as well just drop the second Elder to allow me to Cloud for all of his lands the next turn if it resolves. (note the big "if")

Sideboard: -3 Echo Decay, -1 Forest, -1 Swamp, -2 Eternal Witness, +2 Boseiju, +2 Sylvan Scrying, +3 Cranial Extraction

Cranial had to come in to combat his Extractions. I wasn't sure what should come out for them since Shaman could kill a few of his bigger creatures and his artifact mana. In the end, I decided to go with Witness, but I'm not sure if that's right. Should I have brought in some Persecute as well? It felt like I didn't want to water my deck down too much.

Game two he Extracts my Ink-Eyes and then Kokusho. I manage a Plow Under or two, but have no pressure. Extraction takes my Shamans and now I only have two Witnesses with which to win the game. I Extract his three Meloku, but he still has plenty of threats left and his hand is triple Condescend. I have Boseiju, but I didn't realize he could still counter creatures when I used it so Witness went to the bin. Ah... the perils of picking up a deck you've never played before! Memnarch arrives and once all my Swamps are on my opponent's side I really can't win so I extend the hand in concession.

7-3-1

Round 12: Soorani, Shaheen Rating 1994 Elo Prediction: 37%
Shaheen's even a bigger favorite in Elo's eyes, but his deck is not quite as tough. That's not to say it's a very good matchup, however. He has all the mana ramping that I have along with Gifts, Extraction, and Meloku. The only good thing about the situation is that he has Molder Slug, which doesn't do much against me and as a corollary doesn't run artifact mana so he is more susceptible to Cloud and/or early Plow Under.

Game one he Cranial Extracts me game one naming Eternal Witness, not really sure what I am playing yet (the benefit of going Rogue). I Death Cloud and manage to draw into Dragon before he can mount enough of an offense.

Game two he mana ramps and Plows Under setting me back a turn and making the Cloud in my hand a bad deal. Molder Slug on his side is slightly annoying for my Top. I have to make an unfavorable Cloud to stay alive and he manages to kill me afterwards.

Game three a Mox enables me to Plow a turn before he could cast his Extraction and a Kokusho afterwards has him backpedaling. He starts tapping out for Slugs hoping to outrace me with the Nourish in his hand (in his sideboard against Red, but didn't have much to bring in against me so it came in as a random trick), but I had another Dragon so I get to deal 10 for the win while he is tapped out.

Shaheen says he will drop, but I tell him X-5 should still be able to win money, so he stays in. As luck would have it, he wins out and manages to win about $500!

Where's my consulting fee?

Just kidding. Nice going Shaheen!

8-3-1

Round 13: Pelcak, John Players Club 1844 Elo Prediction: 59%
I played John once before in GP: Washington DC in teams. He is an accurate, quiet player. You know that he is very seriously thinking about each play.

He was with the deck that everyone expected to dominate, but I hadn't played at all yet - Tooth and Nail. Game one I get the turn 4 Plow Under, turn 5 Plow Under and then double Witness to seal it.

Sideboard: -3 Echo Decay, +3 Cranial Extraction

Cranial would go for Tooth first and then Sundering Titan. It's possible that Persecutes should replace a few Shamans, especially if they don't run Mox, but I just made this shift for game two.

While shuffling his deck my hands are sweaty and shaking more than normal and I accidentally flip an Eternal Witness, but the judge rules that it was just a dexterity problem. In D&D I would probably have about a 4 Dexterity score. My geekiness revealed. Wait, this is a huge Magic report. Who am I kidding? Seriously though, I was pretty scared to shuffle his deck after that, fearing my jitters would flip something else. I gingerly shuffled his cards afterwards and hand them back fairly quickly.

He gets the Tron and then Sundering Titan, but I have enough land to Cloud away everything he has leaving me with just a Forest and a Top. I actually didn't know how Death Cloud interacted with Sundering Titan so I let him resolve the land kill before I sacrificed lands - which is not how it works. I just think neither of us understood the rules for the situation. What should happen is that I sacrifice lands and then Titan resolves so I would have had two Forests instead of just the one (I would have sacrificed all my Swamps). Fortunately, this doesn't cost me the game as I come back quicker and Viridian Shaman hits his Mox. He conceded soon after.

9-3-1

Round 14: Webb, Taylor Rating 1922 Elo Prediction: 47%
Feature Match. The details for the match are listed in the event coverage.

Taylor is a nice guy and we both joke that we've made plenty of PTQ Top 8's, but never anything else. An important match to say the least.

Game one he Shatters a Mox and overwhelms me. Game two I got early Decays plus Cloud to lock him down and race with Dragon. Game three an early COP:Red and his inability to draw Pithing Needle allowed me to stay alive to play Dragon three times (each was killed by burn) and then Cloud for 5 to win.

Sideboard: +1 Plains, +3 COP:Red, +2 Hideous Laughter, -4 Plow Under, -1

Witness

Plows are too slow here and the plan is to just land search out the Plains and COP lock them until you can get off a Cloud. Just be careful that you don't give them a chance to Molten Rain the Plains before you play the Circle.

Paul Rietzl pumps the fist and cheers for me and I am stunned - I have just made a Top 8! Taylor puts his head in his hands and I feel bad for him, but we both knew how high the stakes were at the start of the match. I shake his hand and go to call my friends.

10-3-1

That night Rob Dougherty, Craig Edwards, Mark Schmit, Nick Cuenca, and Darwin Kastle helped me test the matchups for the Top 8, primarily focusing on the matchup versus Mike Patnik with White Weenie. The testing shows the matchup is about 50/50. I win when I get a Dragon or Cloud early with the mana to support them. Otherwise he can run me over. Anthem is his best card since it lives through Cloud, prevents my Decay and Laughter from killing his 2/2's, and I have no way to remove it. He has no countermagic or disruption, however, (beyond Damping Matrix to stop Top) so if I draw the "combo" he can't stop me.

Quarterfinals: Patnik, Michael Rating 1888 Elo Prediction: 52%
The coverage here is good enough that I don't have to rehash it. I took out the Plow Unders for Hideous Laughters and Persecutes. It's possible that a Top should have become a Plains to help combat the effect of the Matrix, but it's such a small change that it is hard to evaluate without testing the matchup much more than I had time.

I mulligan three of the five games and I just don't get the combo draw enough times to pull it out.

Congratulations to Mike, you were a great opponent and I wish you the best of luck at Worlds.

I head home $2250 (minus taxes and expenses) richer. Not too bad.

Looking back Elo would guess that I would win 8.76 matches against the opponents I faced in the Swiss based on my expected win rates. I'm not really sure what the standard deviation should be, so it's hard to say if 1.74 wins above expectation is an unusual event or not. What I can say is that my Standard rating might have been a little low going in since I have hardly ever practiced or planned before an event in the last few years (something I hope to change!).

Thank you to: Mark Schmit (for the cards, testing, ride), Bruce Cowley and Robert Dixon (for believing), Rob Dougherty and the YMG crew (for advice, testing, support), Paul Rietzl (for cheerleading), everyone in the Neutral Ground crew (too numerous to name), Dave Webb (for the Death Cloud cards), LCG and Boston pals (for telling me about the deck), my coworkers for constant deck/draft discussions, you the readers for getting this far, and for everyone else who I played, talked to, or ever learned from in the game.

Magic is fun and the people a huge part of that.

-Chris Manning