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A new set just came out, and it's called Guildpact! It features three new guil... oh, you've heard this already? What? Well, what cards are going to be good? Three more dual lands, yah, of course... anything else? Indulge me; let's speculate.
Don't worry, this isn't going to be another set review, I'll leave that to the more reputable writers. This is a set of guidelines for playing the Magic stock market©.
As the new Guildpact cards hit the market, and you clamor over the new possibilities, most people will wonder... will the cards they want to pick up be good investments that will at least hold some value, or will they tank? Would you like to see some guidelines that will help you determine the future values of these magical cards? I bet you would!
First, I would like to subject you to some drudgery, no that's not a Guildpact mechanic or a modification to dredge. But for fun, what would it be?
Drudgery (when this card comes into play, if your current turn has taken at least 2 minutes you may draw a card and untap all lands required to pay for the mana cost of this spell).
There is one steadfast stock market rule that governs it all:
Supply and Demand
This is an obvious and proven rule. If the hottest new card to come out in years is a common, the supply will be higher than the demand, and its value will not likely be more than a few dollars. When a card gets restricted, its value is likely to go down: the demand will go down while the supply stays the same.
I'll stop here; you've been through middle school, right?
Well, there you go. You should have no problems turning your collections size into that of StarCityGames.com. What? You want to know how to determine what a cards supply and demand is going to be? Cripes man, must I do everything? Would you like my secret recipe for garlic and onion shoe fondue too? Fine....
Here are some guidelines. The ones I promised earlier in the article, before you began to drool sideways on your desk at work.
Card Availability: Supply
Each Wizards release for the past billion years has yielded a large enough print run that having enough packs to open, to find the desirable cards, isn't an issue.
So... there are enough packs out there that we don't have to worry about supply in that sense *... but how many of those packs are opened? Does Wizards of the Coast even produce the same number of packs for each set? What about the size of the sets?
Set Size: Each base set is significantly larger than each smaller set: 300 hundred cards in a base set compared to 165 in the smaller ones. If Wizards produces the same amount of packs for each set, then how does that affect the number of Watery Grave compared to Steam Vents? There would be more Steam Vents because it comes out of a smaller set. Taking only this principle into consideration, does that seem plausible with previous examples? How many big chase cards in larger sets were worth more than chase cards in smaller sets?
It's hard to answer that without taking everything into consideration. Cursed Scroll, Undermine, and Urza's Rage were not played in a huge amount of decks, yet their value was high. They were difficult to pull because they came out in larger sets. Deranged Hermit was very popular and powerful in standard, and casual players loved them. However, their value was not in the ranks of the other three cards; they were easier to pull. The same goes for Tangle Wire. With thirty-six packs in a box, and 110 rares in a set, you would statistically need to open almost three boxes to get one of each rare, and hopefully see the one you were seeking. With a smaller set that has fifty-five rares, you would need to open less than two boxes to hit the statistical average.
Number of packs opened: I'll let you in on a little secret: Ravnica is very popular to draft. It's probably the most successful Limited set ever, ever! I saw a guy open his binder, and on the front page were eight Temple Gardens, two of them foil. This was when Ravnica had only been out for two or three months. Being the naturally curious person that I am, I inquired as to how he accumulated such wealth in a very desirable card. To my experience, nobody was trading these things. He simply replied “I draft a lot”.
Wizards will continue to print Ravnica at least until the next block hits the shelves. They will probably even go back to the presses if necessary while it is still Standard legal.
OK, here is the tip, wake up! How many packs of Ravnica will be drafted, versus Guildpact and Dissension? Once the next block comes out, Ravnica block will hardly be drafted at all. We started with triple Ravnica packs, then some combination of Ravnica and Guildpact, and lastly one each of Ravnica, Guildpact, and Dissension. It looks to me like there are a lot more Ravnica packs in that list than any other set. The last set in a block is drafted the least, and thus there will be fewer copies of cards in that set floating around. Exact ratios, however, I don't know; does anybody know what percent of packs opened are opened for Draft? There will be more Watery Graves going around than Black/Red duals, even two years from now. I know Pithing Needle has more factors than I've covered this far, but the fact that it was in the least drafted set of the block is important. It looks like the middle set will generally score the lowest in this category because it is a smaller set, yet it will see more draft play than the third set.
Set size versus number of packs opened: These categories could cancel each other out. The base set has fewer copies of each card opened than those in smaller sets, at least at release, but it will see a lot more Draft play. I believe that the number of packs opened for draft will outweigh the size of the set factor, especially for Ravnica, but that opinion is only based upon what I see in my local community. I see a ton of Drafts occurring, but I don't see every customer that comes in to buy a box and then take it home (of course, how many of those ever leave home?). 1 year from now I fully expect Temple Gardens value to be $10 or less, while the duals in Dissension will still be around $15. Some of that is because of the color combination popularity, but some of that will also be availability. I guess Watery Grave and the Blue/ White dual land would be a fairer comparison. I expect the Blue/White dual land will be more valuable, simply because there will be fewer copies available. There will be a huge gap in the amount of packs drafted. The gap between the Guildpact duals and the Ravnica duals is smaller, and the amount of ground closed by the set size differences highlights this imbalance.
Short and simple version — Ravnica and Guildpact duals will both drop to roughly equal values, while the Dissension duals should maintain a higher value.
Card Desirability: Demand
Not all cards are created equal! Once you think you know which cards are the stinkers, and which cards are the bombs, come here to find out its “value probability**.” Sounds like the flavor text on an Izzet card. I have to wonder if the Orzhova consult with Niv-Mizzet to come up with their business and profitability schemes.
Board meeting between the Ghost Council of Orzhova and Niv-Mizzet:
Ghost Council of Orzhova: After you sign the contract and pay the tithe, Niv, take a seat and help yourself to some Shish Kebabs.
Niv-Mizzet: Could we please hurry this up? I have a meeting in five minutes to discuss the Mizzium Contaminant Probability Factor... oh, is that a triscuit?
Ghost Council of Orzhova: Niv, we were wondering...
Niv-Mizzet: Please, call me Niv-Mizzet. Have you seen our new signet? I think it should have more dragons on it.
Ghost Council of Orzhova: Niv-Mizzet, we would like to suck more life out of our followers, but were not sure if that would cause Bob's advisor to have another ulcer.
Niv-Mizzet: Bob?
Ghost Council of Orzhova: Yes, our confidant. The guy looking to achieve greatness at any cost. Have you seen his advisor? Never mind contracting an ulcer... he looks like an ulcer! You know, Bob already costs us a fortune... I think we should tax him more. Did anybody do a background check on him? It says here that he was an accountant for a company called... erm... “Enron.” Anybody heard of a company called “Enron?”
Ok, with that out of the way...
Lets say you've figured out that after looking over the Ravnica spoiler, Glare of Subdual is going to be a good card, but how much demand will there be for this good card?
Number of decks the card is playable in: Glare of Subdual is a Green and White card. Thus, obviously, it will only be played in decks that play Green and White mana. Enduring Ideal aside, that limits its demand considering there are other color combinations available to the public. Also of importance is what role the card plays in decks. Glare requires its controller to have lots of creatures in play to be of any use, so it will only go into creature based decks, most likely ones that feature a way to get several small creatures. So this card appears to fit only into a specific deck type. As a counter example, consider Putrefy. It fits into any deck that plays Green and Black mana and is interested in destroying a creature or artifact. Its role is much less constricting than Glare of Subdual. I bet if you were to scan over a collection of deck lists, you would find more copies of Putrefy than Glare of Subdual because it fits into multiple deck roles. If Putrefy was a rare, I would certainly bet it would be worth more than Glare of Subdual. Cards with flexible roles will find more homes in decks, and thus have a higher demand.
Similar cards competing for the same role: Has this card got a lot of competition? Just how many finisher creatures do we need to choose from? The Kamigawa dragons, like Kokusho, the Evening Star, offer a lot of punch for six mana. Angel of Despair offers some competition for roughly the same role. If Kamigawa block wasn't Standard legal right now, the Angel would certainly have a higher demand.
Number of formats in which the card is playable: How many formats will this card see play in? The more formats, the more people will want this card. Lets stick with our examples above. Glare of Subdual will probably not be making a splash in Extended. I could be wrong, but I think that most people have other plans. Legacy? Nope, Vintage? Not a chance. How about another example... Watery Grave. Standard? Check. Extended? Check. Legacy? Check. Vintage? Doubtful. Lets not forget a very important format: Casual? Check. Casual is a big, significant format. There are millions of spell slingers that keep it to the kitchen table, and they like cards that the tournament players may not.
So, every format except maybe Vintage will want this card. That's a pretty big leap in demand. What about the other limiting factors? It's only real role is to produce mana, something every Blue and Black deck will want. So what's the real world price difference between Glare of Subdual and Watery Grave? Probably around $10. Both cards are good, though Watery Grave is arguably stronger in power level, but the main deciding factor is the amount of people that will want it. Notice this gives artifacts and lands a huge advantage, because they can be played in many more decks. Sensei's Divining Top will maintain a lot of value because it has game in a number of decks, and it's colorless.
How many copies of this card will a deck want to use: Some cards go in decks best as singletons, and their demand will be a quarter of a card that is maxed out at four copies. Watchwolf is a quick offensive threat that goes into a deck trying to maximize consistency, so four copies will be required. Congregation at Dawn, while the same colors and rarity, will probably only be played in twos and threes, thus having less demand.
Mana cost is usually a good indicator for this category. Cards that cost a lot of mana tend to clump an early hand, and so playing fewer copies reduces the chance for early game dead draws. If you can't play the card until at least turn six — because it costs six mana — you will have at least five extra draws to find it.
The cards likelihood to become obsolete: This one is much more difficult to gauge, and takes a lot of experience. If you've been around, you've seen Wizards make many attempts at introducing a more balanced yet playable Underground Sea. Some decent attempts have been Underground River, and now we have Watery Grave. Watery Grave is exactly like Underground Sea, even in searchable card types, except it costs two life to put it into play untapped. How much closer in power can you get? Probably not much, and I doubt we will ever see a more powerful dual land reprint. It could happen, but the odds are low. The odds of the Ravnica dual lands ever being outdated are pretty slim.
So what factors should we consider in determining if a card will become obsolete? If it's a creature, it's chances just went up. Wizards is always printing more creatures, usually in higher quantities than any other card type. Creatures offer the most design space. Odds are higher that creatures will become obsolete faster. Ernham Djinn is obsolete, and possibly even Juzam Djinn. Every new set introduces new fatties, and they seem to keep getting better. Original ideas that start out weakly will probably be revisited with a stronger power level. Examples? Glowrider.
This category is primarily aimed at long term investments, though many cards become obsolete within a couple of months. Meloku should be around for a while; he even showed up in Extended, and how often do they make competitive Blue token producers that fly? Rumbling Slum is good, right? But how often do they make great new fatties? Every set or two? It took Morphling a long time to be dethroned — he was one-of-a-kind — but once we started seeing more Psychatogs and Juggernauts posting results in Type 1, it was time to take the hint and put Morphling out to pasture.
The cards likelihood to find new interactions: These are the best investment opportunities. If you find a new card in a new set that interact in a broken (or near-broken) way with other, older, cards — and you find it before anybody else — jump on it. I think I can solidify this advice with one card: Ichorid. Some-friggin-body figured out that Ichorid is pretty darn good with Dredge. If a Magic entrepreneur found this interaction with Dredge quickly, and then went out and bought every Ichorid he could find at $1 in order to resell them when Extended season rolled around, he'd double, triple, quadruple his money.
On the other side of the coin... if you look at a card and say to yourself, “this would be excellent if there were some other card that let me do X, Y or Z,”... maybe they will print a card that satisfies your criteria. Mark Rosewater has already told us some mechanics that will be coming back. Guild mana, Cycling, possibly Threshold... all rumored for return. I have a few investment cards I pick up cheaply, waiting for the right cards to come out. They are very few and hard to recognize, but I didn't want to leave it off the list. Examples?
Mishra's Workshop when Mirrodin block was coming out. That card went from $30 to $220 and it took several months.
Bazaar of Baghdad. More and more cards will come out that interact with the graveyard and discarding, always adding more possibilities to Bazaars usage.
Survival of the Fittest also scores in this category because they will always make more utility creatures and creatures that interact with the graveyard.
You want some hot new Guildpact examples for this category? How about Ghost Council of Orzhova? Over the next eighteen months that Guildpact will be legal, Wizards will make more creatures that you will want to sacrifice. Ghost Council of Orzhova is likely to find new interactions. Quicken? Lots of new possibilities. Giant Solifuge? Nope, it just beats down. Not nearly as likely to find new interactions. Generally, engines and enablers tend to find new paths.
It's now time to wrap up this article, so wake up and pay attention.
Questions to ask yourself when determining the future value of a card:
Want some examples of my portfolio? These are the cards I have stocked up on. Their value should at least maintain, if not increase:
Force of Will — they will never print a better counterspell than this or Mana Drain.
Original Dual Lands — they will never make a version better than the originals.
Pernicious Deed — Selective mass destruction at a price this cheap is hard to top!
Mox Diamond — They continue to make more and more ways to recur land from the bin.
Wasteland — There will always be nonbasic lands to blow up at a tournament.
Chrome Mox — Will be extended legal for a long time, and we just got a multicolor block.
Gifts Ungiven — Splashable card advantage and turtorage, sees play in multiple formats and deck types.
See how much of this is mana? All good decks start with a stable manabase.
All rares that have a low mana cost of two or less deserve very strong consideration, or at least a second glance. Their low mana cost makes them more desirable, and more likely to be wanted in multiples. If this low mana cost card is rare, it either has an effect that is to powerful to show up for Limited in multiples, or has an unusual ability. The former is a good clue that it's a strong card (Isamaru, Hound of Konda), and the later means a deck may be built around it (Glimpse the Unthinkable).
Before I go, shall we exercise what we've learned and apply them towards Guildpact cards? Lets just answer each question above.
1. Is the card from the base set or a smaller expansion? Last set in a block gets bonus points.
Smaller Expansion — strike against.
2. How many packs for this cards set will be opened for Limited?
A fair amount. It's a middle set. Has prospects.
3. How many different decks is this card playable in?
One, and only one — Gruul beatdown. I suppose a rogue player may try some G/R control, but it's primarily a beatdown card that interacts well with bloodlust beatdown cards.
4. How many cards are competing for the same role?
G/R beatdown has a lot of competition at the four-mana slot, with cards like in Giant Solifuge and Ulasht, the Hate Seed. All three cards offer solid beatdown and are fairly similar, and they all detract from each others value. If the play style for R/G tends to go mostly bloodthirst, then I think Rumbling Slum will win out over the other 2 competitors.
5. How many formats will this card be played in?
One or two formats. Standard for certain, but Extended play is questionable.
Probably 4 copies in any deck that runs it.
7. How quickly will this card become obsolete?
This card will probably be obsolete in the next block. It is likely the fattest creature for the mana cost in Ravnica, since Gruul is the beatdown guild, but it's a creature and they are always making big fat undercosted Green dudes. Green Blue might give even it competition in Dissension.
8. Is this card likely to find new interactions? Does it act like an engine?
This card is not likely to find any new interactions at all. We will not be getting any more bloodthirst in this block, and I don't see any other new cards that really shine for having this fat stick on the table.
Overall Assessment: fills a fairly narrow role and will not be great for long. Any R/G beatdown deck will probably want four copies, which helps, but it also has significant competition. Depending on the success of the deck I expect this card to settle around $5 while it is used.
Burning-Tree Shaman:
1. Is the card from the base set or a smaller expansion? Last set in a block gets bonus points.
Same as above.
2. How many packs for this cards set will be opened for Limited?
Same as above.
3. How many different decks is this card playable in?
One, at the very least — Gruul beatdown — but possibly other decks that want a solid beater that messes with abilities. This guy has serious metagame possibilities.
4. How many cards are competing for the same role?
No other competition. This is the first creature with this ability, and there is no other competition for such an efficient body in the 3-mana slot.
5. How many formats will this card be played in?
Two, possibly three. Standard (obviously), and you can bet your left sock this guy will be hot in extended too. Good versus Psychatog? Check. Good vs. Ichorid? Check. Good vs. CAL? Check.
6. How many copies of this card will decks want to play?
Four copies!
7. How quickly will this card become obsolete?
This is the first creature we’ve seen with this ability, and it’s on a highly efficient card. We probably won’t see this unique form of hosing for at least a little while, the next block at the soonest. And it probably won’t be attached to such an efficient body.
8. Is this card likely to find new interactions? Does it act like an engine?
They will always continue to print non-mana activated abilities, and this guy will always be there to hose them. He will be good for a loooong time to come.
Overall Assessment: This card fills a much needed role and with very little competition for its spot. It will be wanted in multiple formats and by more than 1 specific deck. I expect this card to hold at least a $7.50 value for a long time, if not higher.
1. Is the card from the base set or a smaller expansion? Last set in a block gets bonus points.
Large expansion. A positive trait
2. How many packs for this cards set will be opened for Limited?
Lots of Draft boosters cracked in Ravnica
3. How many different decks is this card playable in?
Several decks, from Control to some weird form of Aggro like Friggorid.
4. How many cards are competing for the same role?
No other card can offer this efficient of land recursion. Crucible of Worlds is the only thing even close.
5. How many formats will this card be played in?
All formats: I think even Vintage wants to use this.
6. How many copies of this card will decks want to play?
Only two or three copies
7. How quickly will this card become obsolete?
Not likely to become obsolete for a while, especially with Dredge attached.
8. Is this card likely to find new interactions? Does it act like an engine?
While I don’t think we will see Wasteland again, or Fetchlands for quite a while, there will be more cards that will make you want to have more lands. Vinelasher Kudzu is the most recent example I can think of, but I’m sure he’s not the last.
Overall Assessment: a very useful card for many decks across many formats. It's not wanted as a playset of four, which is a big strike against it, but everything else is a plus. Should maintain at least a $5 value.
It will be fun to come back in six months and see how these evaluations hold up.
Until next time, may you never have to resort to stealing someone else's ending cliché.
Sy Johnson
* In the early history of the game supply was unable to keep up, obviously there isn't a lot of Alpha or Beta out there. And in MTGO, Invasion was also under produced. Generally though, new physical sets that come out are not under produced.
** Please remember that the primary deciding factor for a cards demand is its playability. Once you know that the card is good enough to make the cut into constructed only then does this article have any value.
