Grand Prix: Chicago was unlike anything I’ve ever seen as far as Magic tournaments go. To call it a ‘tournament’ is a description too small to capture its essence. It was an event. Everyone was there. It was a collision of worlds. It was like a Magic Invitational for 1300 people. The entire American Vintage community was there. The entire Legacy community was there. Pros, dealers, friends, teammates, judges… it felt like the larger part of the American Magic community and then some. People I hadn’t seen since the 2007 Magic Invitational and Pro Tour Valencia: were there. I almost feel sorry for people who weren’t.
Just to give you a sense of the size of the event, there was a 230-player PTQ and an 81-player Vintage event on Sunday (there would have been even more players in that tournament had there been a Top 8 structure, and if some of the top Vintage players had scrubbed out of the main (I’m looking at Andy Probasco, Tommy Kolowith, Rich Shay, and Jimmy McCarthy). In its sprawling grandeur and size, it felt like GenCon, but just for Magic players. It had everything GenCon holds for me: Legacy, Vintage, and a memorable 7-man Type Four game with Patrick.
My performance was the only thing lacking. Last week I discussed the deck I played and explained card choices. As is usually the case, tweaks and changes were made at the last minute.
My Weapon For the Grand Prix
Soon after submitting my article last week, I decided that I wanted to run Thoughtseize over Path To Exile. In testing against Goblins, as I explained last Monday, I was losing to late game Ringleader and Siege-Gang Commander. Thoughtseize deals more effectively with both threats than Path to Exile. In addition, Thoughtseize is a very good card in the mirror, taking Counterbalances, Goyfs, Shackles, Sower of Temptation, Force of Wills, and any other card you might have to deal with.
As the tournament drew closer, I decided that my 5% Goblins prediction was too low. I expected a couple percentage points uptick in Goblins, as pros that don’t normally play Legacy go for something familiar and competitive. At the time, I only had 4 Blue Elemental Blasts in the sideboard. Paul Mastriano and I sat in the hotel room brainstorming possibilities. We considered Sphere of Law (too expensive), Engineered Plague (too little/too late), Honorable Passage (too cute; amusing against Progenitus), and finally someone realized that we could just play Hydroblast as well. So we ended up adding a Hydroblast and a Circle of Protection: Red, which is virtually a game winner against burn.
At the same time, I decided that my sideboard contained too many cards for the Counterbalance mirror, between the additional Duress, the Krosan Grips, and Threads of Disloyalty. In a sense, I was already pre-boarded for the mirror, with 4 maindeck Duress effects, Predator, and Cliques. There was nothing, really, to sideboard out. I knew I’d need Grips, so I cut the Threads altogether. Too many players would be expecting it anyway.
With those changes, here was my Grand Prix decklist:
Creatures (12)
Lands (18)
Spells (30)
The Tournament
Round 1 & 2: Byes
Round 3: Simon Karels, the mirror.
Simon was playing the same deck, sans White. My recollection of this match is sketchy, and I lost whatever notes I had taken.
Game 1:
My opponent is excited, but nervous. I win the die roll and elect to play.
I can play a dual land of any type in my deck, but decide to play a Fetchland and break it on turn 1 so as to avoid any Stifle effects. I have more dual lands in hand, so if I get Wastelanded, it will be tempo neutral, or tempo advantageous to me. I fetch out Tropical Island and play Ponder, setting Dark Confidant on top of my library after drawing something else. He plays Tropical Island and passes the turn. I have turn 2 Dark Confidant and sense that he does not have any countermagic. He plays Goyfs, and I make Goyf walls in return. Despite furiously digging, I can’t find a Trygon Predator or even a Vendilion Clique to begin a sky assault. I am not able to control the rate of life loss to my Bobs either and I begin to attack with Bobs, but he sucks up two points of damage a turn.
I make a critical decision to break my fetchland, knowing that the top card was a superfluous Daze, and Dark Confidant reveals Force of Will, sending me from 8 to 3 life. From there, I am no longer able to stabilize and my Confidants turn back on me.
I sideboard in a Duress and two Krosan Grips for basic Island, a Daze, and something else.
Game 2:
My turn 2 Thoughtseize is met with Brainstorm. I see some things that don’t matter and I pass the turn. Predictably, he has turn 2 Dark Confidant, which I decline to Daze so that I might play my own Bob. He plays turn 3 Counterbalance, which I double Daze. Then I play my own Counterbalance. He tries to play a Goyf, but I get lucky, and my Counterbalance reveals Daze. Now the fun begins.
He plays Top and I play Thoughtseize. He responds by casting Krosan Grip on my Counterbalance. I play Goyf and he plays an Engineered Explosives. I play Trygon Predator and the tempo shifts. He plays Vedalken Shackles to divert my Predator’s attention. I attack the Shackles and get my Goyf back. I attack the Explosives, and he blows up the board save my Predator. He plays a Counterbalance, and my Predator munches on that next, leaving his Top open. From this position I am eventually able to win the game, but not before it’s revealed that he is playing with Vendilion Clique as well.
Game 3:
This game is far more to my liking. I spend my first couple of turns playing cantrips and sculpting my hand while he plays a Goyf. I have both Trygon Predators and a Clique in hand. I hide a Predator on top with Brainstorm on turn 2. On turn 3, I play a Clique in the air during his draw step, and decline to take his Force of Will. I am holding two Trygon Predators and I know that he’ll attempt to counter the first, leaving the second to resolve. I play a fourth turn Predator and, as predicted, he responds with Force. Instead of turn 5 Predator, I’m forced to play a Goyf of my own. He then plays Sower of Temptation. I then play my Predator and dig for Plow. He starts to attack me with my own Goyf, and my life total begins to fall. I play Ponder, Top, Brainstorm, fetch, activate Top, and with my last mana source, I find Plow for his Sower, only to hit a Daze or a Counterspell. The good news is that below my Top I have another Plow. I untap, play Top, activate it, and Plow his Sower again, getting back my Goyf. But I’m still in danger. I have two Bobs on the table and a low life total. However, I find Swords to Plowshares; I do not need to use them to win the game, but they’re good to have on hand if necessary to remove a threat or boost my life total. I attack him with everything, and within a few turns I’ve won the game.
3-0
Round 4: Wei Jian Ong with Aggro Loam
I misplaced my notes for this match as well, but this match is more deeply imprinted in my memory.
Wei introduces himself as a Singapore native studying at Cal Tech. We shake hands and shuffle up.
Game 1:
I won the die roll.
I played a land and passed the turn. Wei opened the game with turn 1 Forgotten Cave. At this point, my hope was that he is playing Land.dec, since my sideboard was so well suited for it. My fear was that this was Aggro Loam, a matchup in which I’m much less confident and less experienced.
Wei played a turn 2 Goyf, which I Plowed. He cycled a land and Thoughtseized me, and I responded with Brainstorm. He saw two Brainstorms and a Daze in hand, and took something else. Then, I Brainstorm again, and cast Thoughtseize, seeing Goyf, Thoughtseize, and land, taking Goyf. I tapped out to play Counterbalance, having stacked the top of my deck with a Top on top instead of Trygon Predator, thinking he might play his Thoughtseize. Instead, he untapped and drew Terravore, which he played after making another land drop, and I could only think of my stupidity at not thinking about what his major threats were. If that weren’t bad enough, I blew it again. He played another land and cast Thoughtseize. I flip a one mana spell, and he says “That’s what I was hoping for,” as he taps to play a third Terravore. I am holding a Plow, but it all seems rather pointless. He plays Countryside Crusher, and I not only let it resolve, I decide I can’t afford to Plow it at the moment. His Crusher reveals four lands, and suddenly he is able to kill me.
That game can only be described as a comedy of errors. During the course of the game I drew 4 Brainstorms. I misused the Brainstorms mostly on my main phase in the hopes of trying to dig up a Goyf. As a consequence, I missed opportunities to stop his Terravores from ever hitting play.
Although I lose game 1, I am confident that I can still take the match on account of my sideboard.
Internally, I debated my sideboard possibilities, and ultimately just elected to bring in Leyline of the Void. No Blue Elemental Blasts, no Jailers. I sideboarded out two Predators, and probably — and mistakenly — Counterbalance and a Top. Most of the Aggro Loam decks I had tested against ran Pernicious Deed, so I felt that my best plan was to shut down his graveyard with Leyline, which is hard for him to remove.
Game 2:
He plays turn 1 Thoughtseize and sees two Swords and takes one of them, leaving me with Daze.
I go all in with Tarmogoyf, hoping to take it all the way. However, I can’t get my Goyf larger than 3 power, and beatdown for 3, turn after turn. I Plow his first Goyf and he is left cycling lands until he can Burning Wish for Loam and begins to dredge, and cycles more lands. I Thoughtseize him and see a land full of lands, Devastating Dreams, and creatures. I take the threat and let him proceed. He plays Devastating Dreams to wipe the board. I rebuild my land base and on his draw step, I Clique him and see:
Devastating Dreams
Devastating Dreams
Life From the Loam
Something irrelevant
He was at 5 life. Unless he draws a land here, he’ll play Devastating Dreams and I’ll be able to Daze it and successfully counter it. Then, I can swing him down to 2 life, and then kill him the following turn. Of course, he draws the additional land, plays it, and casts Dreams and my Daze is powerless to stop it.
Jimmy McCarthy and Paul Mastriano were watching this game and later pointed out my error. Clique is perhaps the best card I could play here, since it practically removes Loam from the game. Even if he plays Dreams, he’ll lose the cards in his hand and won’t be able to recover as fast as I will — in all probability — without Loam. If I take Loam here, I will be in great shape, especially since I’ve been holding two lands in case he plays Dreams. In fact, knowing that I had Daze, he probably would have let me attack him, just tried to Life From the Loam more lands, played one of them, and tried to Dreams on the following turn. He not only had to not draw a land off of my Clique, but he had to forget that I had Daze in hand and prematurely play Dreams.
If I had to play that match over, I would play many things differently. I would board in some number of Blue Elemental Blasts as well as Yixlid Jailer.
3-1
Two rounds in the tournament, I had not yet felt like I had ironed out the kinks that typically accompany the beginning of a large tournament. I needed to tighten my play up considerably. I wasn’t sure what to do. Did I need to slow down and think more carefully or speed up and play more aggressively, with more vigor, board tempo, and confidence? I wasn’t sure. When testing, I almost always knew which line of play to take from experience, yet I foundered my way through two matches that should have offered obvious and clear lines of play. Whether a construct of the imagination or something based in reality, I have found that decks “gel” or experience some level of “flow” when they are piloted correctly. Correct play tends to beget correct play. For those of you with Chess experience, when you foul up the opening, your pieces are constrained, blocking each other, and you are easily boxed into bad choices. I think there is a similar reality to Magic. When correct decisions are made, better lines of play become obvious and available. I needed to find that ‘flow.’
Round 5: CJ Moritz playing Sea Stompy
CJ is from Cleveland, and part of the crew I rode up with, so I know he is playing Sea Stompy.
Game 1:
CJ opens the game with Ancient Tomb and Chrome Mox (imprinting Force of Will).
This is precisely the opening hand Sea Stompy wants every game.
He played turn 1 Sea Drake. I played Swords to Plowshares. On turn 2 he plays another Sea Drake and I Daze it, and he is disappointed he didn’t play City of Traitors first. On turn 3, he decides he’s had enough of that nonsense and plays Chalice of the Void at one. I think about it, but decide to let it resolve, despite having Force. All I have to do is play the Goyfs I’ve drawn. I play Goyf, and then another and attack him until he’s dead. Ancient Tomb did half of the work for me.
I sideboarded out basic Island and two Counterbalance for 2 Krosan Grip and 1 Duress.
Game 2:
CJ opened with the same sequence: Chrome Mox imprinting Force of Will, but City of Traitors instead of Ancient Tomb. I Daze and then Force his first two plays. The turn before I could play Goyf or Bob, he plays Chalice on 2 and there is nothing I can do about it. The good news is that I have plenty of outs, including Predator and Grip; I just need to draw them. Then he plays Back to Basics. I am furious at myself for sideboarding out basic Island. I’d rather have that basic Island than any other land. The good news is that I’ve kept his creatures off the table. I also have more lands untapped and a Plow in hand. I find Clique and play it on his next draw step and see the Esperzoa he just drew, Umezawa’s Jitte which he can’t play, Mox Diamond, and Ancient Tomb. My hope is that the Clique can go all the way. I am able — even with Back to Basics in play – to plow any creature he might play to block. Plus, if I draw a Daze I’ll be able to reuse some trapped lands. Of course, his first play is the one card I can’t answer with Swords: Man-o’-war, which not only attacks me, but bounces my Clique. My STP can do little against it. I draw a million Blue cantrips, wishing I had that basic Island, but sitting on them anyway. I eventually plow his Man-o’-war, but he just then plays Mulldrifters, Thirst and draws a bunch of cards. Soon I scoop.
Game 3:
CJ keeps a hand without usable mana. He plays an Island and passes the turn. I Thoughtseize him and see Force of Will, Esperzoa, Esperzoa, Chalice of the Void, Sower of Temptation, and Thirst For Knowledge. I take the Force. He doesn’t topdeck a usable second mana source for several turns. I take advantage of the situation and play an army of men, which quickly overwhelm him.
4-1
Round 6: Jamison Bryant
Jamison Bryant is not just a talented player, but the type of person who colors outside of the lines. He won a StarCityGames.com Power 9 tournament with a R/G beatz deck. I’m quite certain that he’s playing Goblins.
As we shuffle up, my mind turned to Grand Prix: Columbus. I thought about the talented players I had to beat to not only make day two, but to place in the top 24. While it’s possible to make day two having dodged the upper tier players or with two losses suffered at the hands of players of high caliber, it’s not possible to succeed in this tournament overall without doing so. Success in this tournament requires nothing less than the littered trail of excellent players. I thought back to the Vintage Championship of 2007, where I played a succession of players like Tommy Kolowith and Rich Shay.
I designed my deck for a singular purpose. My intentions were not to simply make Day 2. I tried to craft a weapon that I felt was particularly suited to winning in a star-studded Top 8. I chose a sideboard and a mainboard that assumed the worst or something approximating it: that my opponents were lucky, highly skilled, and played the best cards. This is why I ran cards like Thoughtseize and Clique over cards like Sower or Shackles. This is also why I ran 4 Daze, so that even if my opponent had the “nuts,” I’d give myself the best chance to take them down.
This is also why I so heavily metagamed against Ichorid (with 4 Leylines and 2 Jailers) and Goblins (running five Blasts and a COP for good measure (and also for burn)).
But a great deck doesn’t win tournaments. Great players playing great decks win tournaments. Even if my deck was great, that was not enough. By any measure, I had played miserably on the day so far. This was a critical test.
I went out of my way to beat Goblins. If I couldn’t win this match then there was little chance that I’d beat the kinds of players I needed to beat to succeed in this tournament overall. What’s more, I knew that even if I won, it would be close. The chances of me winning game 1 were slim, so I’d need my A Game to battle my way through the post-board match.
Game 1:
I fan open a hand that has Island, Underground Sea, Thoughtseize, Dark Confidant, and Blue cards. It’s far from the ideal opener against Goblins, but it appears keepable. Jamison’s decision to mulligan was decisive for me at the time.
Jamison had won the die roll and opened with turn 1 Mountain, Goblin Lackey. Not having a Force of Will, it resolved. I responded by playing Underground Sea, Thoughtseize.
I saw:
Goblin Warchief
Mogg Fanatic
Mogg Fanatic
Rishadan Port
Goblin Ringleader
I took Goblin Ringleader and fell to 18 life.
I saw that he was going to have 5 power on the table very shortly. He could play all of his creatures within a turn or so, and start swinging away at me. I’d have to stabilize high or his Fanatics would be there to finish me off. His double Mogg Fanatics would also help keep a Goyf off the board. As it stood, if I was going to win this game, it was going to be at a very low life total.
Jamison topdecked a Mountain because he attacked with Lackey, put Warchief into play, and played two Mogg Fanatics.
I broke a fetchland, played Dark Confidant and passed the turn.
He attacked me with Warchief, Lackey, and two Mogg Fanatics. I considered my options but decided to suck up 5 points of damage, falling to 11.
Bob revealed a Plow, sending me to 10. I played another fetchland and broke it, going to 9, to Plow the Warchief. He played another and attacked me to 4.
I untapped drew some junk, realized I had no outs and scooped.
Game 2:
I sideboarded in 4 Blue Elemental Blasts, 1 Hydroblast, and 1 Circle of Protection: Red. I sideboarded out two Trygon Predator, 1 Counterbalance, 1 Top, and 2 Cliques.
My opening hand was:
Tundra
Brainstorm
Force of Will
Tarmogoyf
Counterbalance
Circle of Protection: Red
Swords to Plowshares
I briefly considered its merits.
This hand has just about everything you might want except mana. I am on the play, so that’s one less card I’ll see before I can Brainstorm. I can theoretically turn 2 Brainstorm unless he opens with Wasteland. If he Wastelands me and my Brainstorm reveals no more lands, I am probably dead. If he plays Port, while I will be able to play spells, he can keep me locked into playing instants until I can find another land, and even then I won’t be able to do much until I find a third. By that time, the chances are that he’ll have found more Ports and another Wasteland. Furthermore, COP: Red seemed like a dead card in this situation. I announced a mulligan and peeked at my top cards. The top of my library was Force of Will, Blue Elemental Blast, and Force of Will. Below that there were more Blue Elemental Blasts, Swords, and Forces. But I didn’t see a land for maybe 7 draws, if not deeper. I was glad I mulliganed.
However, my mulligan to six produced two Daze but no lands at all. This hand was even worse than the first.
Finally, dejectedly, I mulligan to 5 and keep a hand that will at least give me a fighting chance.
A fighting chance was simply not enough against him having a full grip. I fought tooth and nail, and even got a little lucky. I managed to Thoughtseize a Ringleader, and I managed to create a standoff. He found Matron, but the Ringleader he found next whiffed. However, Siege-Gang Commander reared its ugly head, and the game quickly ended.
At first glance, it looks like there was just nothing I could do in either game.
In retrospect, I should have mulliganed my opening hand in game 1. The hand I drew was excellent if I were to face a control deck, but it was simply not robust enough to face Goblins. I am already a dog game 1, and Jamison’s mulligan gives me the breathing space to try to get a more aggressive hand. I needed a hand that had Force or Plow, and a Goyf would have been nice.
As for my first hand in game 2, in retrospect, I think I should have kept it. I realize that hindsight is 20/20, but with turn 1 Plow and Force and Brainstorm, I should be able to buy a little bit of time. It turns out that he had three Ports. The irony is that I probably would have been able to play through them with all of the Blue blasts I was about to draw. Had I kept that hand, it would have been a close game, but I think my chances would have been better.
Round 7: Jeff Blyden with Elves Combo
Jeff was exceptionally cool, and I look forward to seeing him in another tournament. Jeff was playing uber-pimped, all foil, combo Elves, with some teched tweaks, which I’ll get to.
Game 1:
I’m pretty sure I won the die roll. I opened the game with a Brainstorm effect and passed the turn.
Jeff led with turn 1 Forest, Nettle Sentinel – foiled – and I knew what I had to do. I played Force of Will. I was planning on playing turn 2 Dark Confidant, and I could not afford to let him hit me with Nettle Sentinel repeatedly. However, shortly after playing Force, I wondered if I should have saved my Force for Glimpse. On the basis of such thoughts, I untapped and instead of playing Bob, I cast Thoughtseize, seeing:
Glimpse of Nature
Quirion Ranger
Heritage Druid
Heritage Druid
Progenitus
Jeff’s hand was insane. If he drew a Forest by turn 2, it was a turn 2 goldfish hand. I was also surprised that he had Progenitus. Elves can actually generate enough mana to cast Progenitus with Birchlore Ranger, so that was pretty sweet to see, but I also assumed he has Natural Orders in there somewhere.
Jeff played turn 2 Ranger. I played a Dark Confidant and passed. He played Wirewood Symbiote and then returned a land to play Heritage Druid. I get Counterbalance down, but on his fourth turn, he played Gaea’s Cradle and cast Sylvan Messenger, which resolved. Sylvan Messenger revealed Birchlore Rangers and Priest of Titania. But that’s about as far as he gets. I get Top lock going. He tries to break through it by using Symbiote to replay Messenger, but that doesn’t get him anywhere. I plow the Symbiote to stop that nonsense. He attacks me to low life, but not low enough before I stabilize.
Game 2:
I actually sideboarded in the Duress for a Trygon Predator.
Jeff opens the game with turn 1 Forest, Llanowar Elves. Imagine my surprise, once again, to see that he had a turn 2 Goldfish (if he draws a Forest), which I cruelly thwart. My turn 1 Thoughtseize sees:
Concordant Crossroads (!)
Heritage Druid
Nettle Sentinel
Glimpse of Nature
Progenitus
I take Glimpse and Jeff is back down to earth. I get Counterbalance down and get a lucky flip, and then seal the whole game up. He keeps trotting a man out of his hand, testing the barbed wire for a charge, each time finding a spark, then passing back the turn. It takes some time, but I eventually get two Goyfs down and start swinging with one until he is out of men and out of life.
Round 8: Taishi Kobayashi with CounterGoyf Japanese variant
I love playing against the Japanese because it’s always interesting. It was evident that he knew very little English, but Magic is a universal language. Taishi won the die roll, and elected to play. I was actually excited for the match. In my excitement, I loudly announced “keep.” Taishi did the same, and I thought he was mimicking me until he did the same for “untap, upkeep, draw.” I loved it. Taishi had many of the mannerisms, some more accentuated, that Kenji and other Japanese players I’ve faced display.
On his first turn he played a land and passed the turn. I played a land, cast Thoughtseize, and could not believe what I saw:
Bloodstained Mire
Phyrexian Dreadnaught
Brainstorm
Brainstorm
Dark Confidant
Tarmogoyf
His hand was insane. I debated what to take. I believe I settled on Dark Confidant. He topdecked Thoughtseize and swiftly played the same on me, taking Swords to Plowshares. This game was a battle, a to and fro. He countered my Counterbalance and a Goyf. He resolved a Goyf down, but I couldn’t find an answer, and eventually I had to throw Clique and two Bobs in front of it, since it was 6/7. He Stifled the Clique’s CIP trigger, but that was fine with me. I Thoughtseized him and saw these cards:
Phyrexian Dreadnaught
Phyrexian Dreadnaught
Vision Charm
2 Lands
I called the judge and asked for an explanation of how phasing works. After getting a prompt response, I asked another question: do Comes Into Play abilities trigger when cards phase in? Answer: No. At this point, my Japanese opponent could tell that I understood the combo, as I instructed him to put Vision Charm on the bottom of his library. Vision Charm was clever, functioning as an additional Stifle effect for Phyrexian Dreadnaught. Charm struck me as a very Japanese card, and this as a very Japanese deck.
We both went into topdeck mode, hands emptied, graveyards overflowing. Before each draw, Taishi closed his eyes in what appeared to be a silent prayer, holding his hand still above his deck, apparently hoping for a fortunate draw. I drew a bunch of lands, and so did he. I hard cast Force of Will several times. I knew that at any time he could draw a Charm or Stifle and play Phyrexian Dreadnaught. However, it didn’t go down like that. Eventually, he found a Goyf and I couldn’t find an answer. I saw Trygon Predator, but it was just a one turn chumper, and the Goyf took me down.
Losing the first game was brutal here since we ate up so much time.
Game 2:
I open the perfect hand with turn 1 Thoughtseize, turn 2 Dark Confidant, turn 3 Goyf/Counterbalance. I anticipated a quick win. Taishi complied, and mulliganed to 5. He was stuck on two lands for most of the game, but he did manage to get his own Bob to stick, which allowed him to stay in the game longer than he should have been. At the end of game 2 we had about ten minutes left to finish the match.
Game 3:
He begins the game with turn 1 Thoughtseize taking Bob, but seeing my Daze.
I topdeck and play Thoughtseize, seeing:
Stifle
Tarmogoyf
Tarmogoyf
Phyrexian Dreadnaught
Polluted Delta
I took either Stifle or Tarmogoyf
I topdeck and play Dark Confidant. At this point, I see this game quickly going in my favor. However, I realize that we have only a few minutes to finish this match. He can’t play a Goyf into my Daze, so I know he’ll wait a turn. This will allow me to play Thoughtseize taking his Goyf. Bob reveals a Top and I draw another Bob. Caught up in the time crunch, I hurriedly play a land and quickly announce Bob. Before I’ve lifted my hand from Bob, I’ve realized my error. He’s able to resolve Goyf, which starts to eat away at me. I draw a bunch of cards, but his Goyf has given him tempo. I would have complete control over this game had I played it the other way.
I Brainstorm, break a fetchland to shuffle, Top into a fetchland to shuffle, and find enough creatures to turn the tide. I chump his Goyf and then play Predator with Clique in hand, but we run out of time just as I’ve stabilized and turned the tide. Onlookers actually wonder if I might have been able to win – despite my blunder in not Thoughtseizing – if I had been more aggressive in attacking in the final minutes and in turns. Regardless of the case, Taishi and I both knock each other out of Day 2 contention with a draw. It doesn’t even occur to me (or him, apparently) to ask for a concession, and we move on.
Round 9: Justin G Swierczek, with UGr Threshold
I decided not to drop in the off chance that there are less than a 128 players who make Day 2, but my friends inform me that this is a virtual impossibility. As such, my hopes dampen and since it is so late in the evening, my motivation leaves as well. I play half seriously in this match and it ends up a draw.
I sit down across from an opponent I faced in the Vintage Champs last year.
I win game 1 very quickly. In game two he draws a billion counterspells. At one point I Duress him and see: Daze, Spell Snare, Brainstorm, Spell Snare, Force of Will, Red Elemental Blast and a land. I can’t draw enough threats to make him bleed through them. I can’t get a man to stick thanks to his burn, and his Goose kills me. I get an early Bob to stick, but we run out of time before I can finish him.
Final record: 5-2-2, with both draws in the final two rounds.
Performance Analysis
Through this report, I will admit the temptation to gloss over my errors. But that serves neither me nor my reader. Put bluntly, I played terribly. Saying that I played terribly is not an excuse either. That’s the whole game here. Having the right deck was important, but playing it well was absolutely essential in this format. Just look at the Top 16 and Top 32. Despite the Counterbalance finals, there was a tremendous amount of day two diversity. There were many decks that were capable of winning, but the one thing that distinguished winners from losers was playskill. That’s why Tommy Kolowith made Top 8 with combo where everyone else failed or came up short. That’s why Rich Shay played Dreadtill to 12th place despite it being, in my opinion, a suboptimal deck choice in this field. That’s also why it is no surprise that the players who have won each of the Legacy Grand Prix tournaments have been professional Magic players.
Looking back, I think I can attribute my playskill failings to at least one key factor. I played far too much on Magic Workstation in preparation for this tournament.
I had the flu the week before the week leading up to the tournament, so while laying sick in bed I’d fire up MWS and play far more games than I normally would have. I used this testing to tighten up my decklist a little, but I fell into a mode where I was playing fast and loose Magic. I thought — ridiculously in retrospect — that I knew everything I needed to do. I was so confident in my ability to choose the line of play regardless of what I drew or what my opponent had that I could just rely on pattern recognition to guide my plays. With every hand on MWS, I seemed to know the right sequence, regardless of the opponent. I could practically run through them in my sleep. Turn 1 Thoughtseize, turn 2 Bob, turn 3 Goyf. Turn 1 Ponder, turn 2 Counterbalance, turn 3 Top, Goyf. Turn 1 Ponder, turn 2 Bob, turn 3 Clique. And so on, and on. I thought I had faced and seen just about everything. I thought I knew what I had to do. My overreliance on pattern recognition rather than logical forward thinking led me to make plays that were clearly wrong.
But more than that, it situated me into a particular mode or habit of play. I got into a mode where I was walking through a maze that I had walked many times before — or so I thought. I was carrying out patterns, like juggling or singing — muscle memory rather than reasoning. It caused me to play faster, but much more poorly. I wasn’t really bringing to bear critical thinking skills. I was trying to play as if all — or a good deal of my thinking — had been done weeks before hand, and all I had to do was let the patterns unfold. The price I paid for this error was steep. When I encountered situations where I needed to think through a situation, I was too far in the habit of not thinking — of acting, of intuiting. This led to blunder after blunder — not simply subtle miscalculations or miscues, but actual full-fledged blunders.
My playskill failings carried over into Vintage as well. 81 players showed up for the Vintage side event on Sunday. I had not lost a match in the tournament yet, and I faced Brett Piaza — no stranger to Vintage — in Round 4. Here is my round 4 report, which I already posted on the Mana Drain. This match was a microcosm of my entire weekend.
Mini-Round 4 Report (a.k.a. a Cautionary Tale):
Game 1:
I pretty much know that Brett is on Ichorid, as he always plays it.
I was disappointed to lose the die roll. However, fortune smiled upon me.
He used Serum Powder in his first opener and removed Cephalid Sage, Flame Kin-Zealot, Dread Return, Serum Powder, Emerald Charm (main deck!), Bridge From Below, and Unmask).
However, he mulliganed to 6. And then 5. And then 4. At this point, I was getting pretty excited, but I wanted to make sure I contained myself, since I’ve lost to Ichorid mulliganing to 3 before.
Then he mulliganed to 3 and said “Keep.” At this point, we were probably 10 minutes into the match.
He opened with Bazaar and activated it, discarding no Dredgers!
He mentioned that he played an opponent earlier where he mulliganed very low, and he still won only because his opponent kept a terrible hand. Our table talk conversation started to weigh on me, because my only play was turn 3 Jar. My opening hand has Mox, Lotus Petal, lands, and Memory Jar, and not much else. Pretty slow. I kept it only because he mulliganed to 3 and because I am a dog to Ichorid in game 1.
On his upkeep, he activated Bazaar and finally revealed a dredger, a Golgari Thug, which he discarded. He was able to dredge that into a Golgari Grave-Troll on his draw step, which didn’t reveal anything yet.
On my turn, I drew a Cabal Ritual because I was able to play Jar without having to play a second land by tapping two lands, the two Moxen, and using Cabal Ritual. I left Lotus Petal unused. At this point, I debated whether to play Underground Sea or whether to wait to see what I drew with Jar. I decided to play Underground Sea and then broke Jar.
However, before drawing our hands, I requested that Brett not draw his hands with Jar (or dredge) because of time. We had already spent nearly 16-17 minutes in the match and we hadn’t even finished game 1. If he jarred, he would presumably dredge his whole deck. Brett is very methodical about every draw, every dredge, and every shuffle, which eats up a ton of time. I basically told him that unless I can Twister or Time Walk, I would just scoop at the end of the turn, so there was no need for him to spend 5 minutes dredging 40 cards with Jar.
In my Jar, I drew: Mana Crypt, Tinker, Yawgmoth’s Will, Tolarian Academy, two other lands, and a completely irrelevant card, like Force of Will.
I looked at my hand and told him that it was a good one. He said something that conveyed his disappointment.
I played Mana Crypt and sacrificed Lotus Petal to cast Tinker for Black Lotus. I sacrificed Black Lotus to play Yawgmoth’s Will.
I replayed Mana Crypt, Black Lotus, and Lotus Petal.
I must have tapped Mana Crypt and sacrificed Lotus Petal to play Cabal Ritual again. I then sacrificed Black Lotus for UUU to play Memory Jar with UB floating. What I really needed to draw was some Dark Rituals.
I broke the Jar again, and I drew Mana Vault, Mind’s Desire, and cards I don’t remember, but no other mana. I think I was able to Demonic Tutor, but there was nothing I could do to get out of the mess, and I scooped after playing Brainstorm.
If I had NOT played my Underground Sea, I would have easily been able to win once I found the Academy. When playing original Long.dec and Grim Long, I learned the lesson to NEVER play a land in a turn where I could find Academy, but I thought the rule was different with TPS. The danger in not playing the Sea is that I won’t draw into a land in my Jar hand. The danger of playing the sea is exactly what happened: I can’t win because I need Academy mana. Given three key facts, I think that I should have waited for Academy. First, I am a dog to Dredge in game one, so in order to win, I need to take risks. Secondly, I had a bunch of artifacts already, so the Academy would have been explosive. Third, if I am able to Will, I can replay the Fetchland I played on turn 1 even if I don’t draw a land in the Jar.
At this point, we have only 26 minutes left in the round, and I remind him that there is a VERY good chance we’ll go to time, especially if he has to mulligan a bunch. I don’t think he believes me.
Game 2:
I sideboard in 4 Leyline of the Void and 4 Yixlid Jailer. I sideboard out a Cabal Ritual, Mox Pearl, Bloodstained Mire, Misdirection, a Duress, Fact or Fiction, Gifts Ungiven, and a card I don’t remember.
I mulligan my opening hand because it has no anti-Ichorid cards. I have to mulligan my hand of 6 because it has no mana. I go to 5 and find the perfect hand. It has Leyline, Underground Sea, Mox, Duress, and something else irrelevant.
I play Leyline on turn zero, and he is pretty surprised.
I play Sea, Duress. It’s difficult to imagine a better defensive sequence of plays. I see:
Bazaar of Baghdad
Dread Return
Stinkweed Imp
Chalice of the Void
Flame Kin Zealot
Oxidize
Serum Powder
I take Chalice, and pass.
Brett activates Bazaar on his turn, clearly looking for something.
I untap, and I believe I Imperial Seal. I play Mox Jet and Seal for Yixlid Jailer, although I convey the impression that I’m getting Tinker.
I pass the turn and realize my error in playing that Jet. I know my opponent has Oxidize in hand.
He taps Bazaar, discards some junk, and play a land and casts Oxidize on my Mox Jet. This actually makes me nervous.
I untap and draw Yixlid Jailer and pass. On his turn, he activates Bazaar and passes, but he’s thinking the whole time, trying to figure out how to beat my Leyline.
Then, I draw another Jailer, and am very uneasy.
On his turn he finds a second land. He plays it and is able to hard cast Cabal Therapy. He names Tinker, and when he sees my two Jailers his eyes bulge. Thank god I topdeck a land, and I play both Jailers in consecutive turns. I attack him to 6 and then play Mox, Dark Ritual Tendrils and win the game.
At this point, there are less than 9 minutes left in the round.
We shuffle up and he keeps and I keep. My opening hand is:
Lotus Petal
Land
Land
Yixlid Jailer
Force of Will
Force of Will
Mind’s Desire
Brett plays Chalice and Bazaar on turn 1, and I’m not quite sure how or why, but I don’t think I Forced it. And again, I’m not quite sure how or why, but I know that I play turn 2 Yixlid Jailer. In those two turns I drew Mana Crypt and then Demonic Tutor.
Brett plays a Fetchland.
On turn 3 I play Demonic Tutor and debate between Hurkyl’s Recall or Ancestral Recall. I look at the time, and we have only about 25 seconds until time is called so I get flustered because I want to quickly pass the turn to Brett so that I’ll have 3 turns in time. I quickly dig out Ancestral Recall and put it in my hand.
So my hand is:
Ancestral Recall
Mind’s Desire
Force of Will
Force of Will
Mana Crypt
Lotus Petal
My board is two lands and a Yixlid Jailer.
I quickly attack with Jailer, thoughtlessly, and as soon as I announce the attack I realize my error. He breaks the fetchland and time is called. He finds Dryad Arbor and blocks.
He is doubtlessly going to win on his turn.
I didn’t even make him play it out. I told him that even if I could, I didn’t deserve to win this match.
I scooped and dropped from the tournament, disgusted with myself.
But I was right about one thing: we definitely went to time. I don’t think Brett realized just how much hate I have for Ichorid. My entire sideboard with TPS is 8 anti Ichorid cards, 6 anti Stax/Fish cards (3 basic lands and 3 Blue bounce spells), and then 1 Massacre. The field could not have been better composed for me.
I had the right deck, the most powerful cards, but bungled it at every critical turn. One match that symbolizes my entire weekend.
And so I learned a very important lesson.
Deck Analysis
Despite my horrible play, I think I am right to take comfort in two facts. First, I think my metagame prediction was very accurate. As the tournament edged closer, I revised my estimates that were published last week, but I ultimately predicted closer to 6.5 and 7 percent Goblins, and fewer Landstill. My last minute changes to more anti-Goblins cards I think accurately reflected the way the Day 2 winds were blowing. Finally, my deck was incredibly powerful and potent in the metagame.
However, this sort of analysis can easily be interpreted in psychological terms, as simply saying: “see, I was right after all,” look how close my deck was to Nassif’s build.
True, my deck shared exactly 85% of Nassif’s (and LSV’s) maindeck, and was closer to Nassif’s final list than anything I saw published online or in the Top 8, but it should not be taken that way. And despite being 9 cards off, I consider half of those differences to relatively minor at least in terms of comparing decks (4th Daze, 4th Counterbalance, 4 Top). Yes, Nassif and I were playing the same archetype, but there were differences that were non-trivial.
So, one of the questions that popped up in response to last week’s article was this:
I’m surprised you never got to running the full set of Tops and Counterbalance. It was well established by the end of last year’s Extended season that you wanted the full set, and even with the additional fixing in Brainstorm and Ponder you want the soft lock as quickly as possible against the majority of the field.
I was also running Clique, but no Predator. I even had Sower for awhile, but let the masses dissuade me from it in the end. Which is a reminder that forums like the Source are a great basis for establishing a gauntlet, but tend to get stuck in established patterns.
Looking back at your process, can you think of what inhibited you from seeing what LSV or Probasco saw in terms of design?
Someone else asked:
I think the idea of “steal your opponents dudes” was the real winner for Brassy and Gabe. It appears to be the part your deck lacked.
The latter questioner nailed it. Nassif ran Sower and Shackles where I ran Clique. I ran a full set of Thoughtseizes, where Nassif, Ochoa, LSV, etc, ran none.
Let me explain, and see what my explanation adds to this future of this archetype.
In the past, I have tried to draw a distinction between decks that make Top 8 and decks that win tournaments (see my article “Finding the Flores Deck“. Although I firmly believe that there is such a distinction, Chris Pikula criticized the math behind such a claim and forced me to better clarify what I mean.
Decks that want to win tournaments, and not merely make Top 8, have to cover more bases. Consider Ichorid. Ichorid is a deck that many players in Legacy chose to ignore. I did not. If there was even one Ichorid deck in the Top 8, then there is a minimum 25% chance that you’ll face it. If you are serious about winning a tournament, those chances are too high to simply decide to ignore it. If there are two Ichorid decks in a Top 8, the chances are at least 50% that you’ll face it, and probably greater.
Ichorid wins every single Swiss + 1 Vintage tournament I’ve ever seen, but it very, very rarely wins Top 8 play offs. The reason is simple: it only has to face one player in the Top 8 that has sufficient Ichorid hate and it will likely lose. Since the skill level and preparedness of each player tends to increase in the elimination rounds, the chances that Ichorid will face such a player increase. Although Ichorid may face a sufficiently prepared player in the swiss, the chances are greater that an error will allow the Ichorid player to escape unscathed (see my match with Brett, as a perfect example). So it requires a combination of preparedness and skill. These two factors are most likely to converge in the Top 8. In swiss plus one, the Ichorid pilots only have to play one “Top 8 round” so to speak.
With my CounterbalanceGoyf deck, I tried to design a deck that would win a Top 8 playoff against excellent players. To do this, I tried to accomplish three goals. First, play a deck that can win against everything, and shores up bad matchups with the sideboard. I sacrificed no matchup. The bad matchups I had focused on were Goblins, Burn, Enchantress, and Dredge. Thus, my sideboard was dedicated mostly to Goblins, Burn, and Dredge. Then, I tried to orient my deck to beat the mirror and other Blue decks. It was a happy coincidence that those same cards, Thoughtseize, Clique, Predator, were so good against Enchantress.
Finally, I selected cards that I felt were best if your opponent was lucky and very skilled. Thus, I thought that Clique and Thoughtseize were better than creature stealing cards. And that was the most significant difference between my deck and Nassif’s/Probasco’s. Suppose your opponent is Nassif or Probasco, and they draw a good or great hand. How do you fight them? Since everything is symmetrical, the key area to fight is to disarm them and then plan around their hand. Thoughtseize is incredibly powerful in the mirror. It takes Bob, Goyf, Counteberbalance, Sower, Shackles, etc, but it also alerts you to what they have. It allows you to make plays that repeatedly put them at a disadvantage. Clique does the same thing, but gives you more tempo in the sky. It can take Sower before it can even be played. I should say that I expected more control decks like ‘It’s the Fear’ and Landstill and UW control where both Thoughtseize and Clique also shine serving the same purpose. As a corollary, I felt that Counterbalance was slightly overvalued since the best players would be prepared for it. Counterbalance is weak against the three or four matchups I just described. It does nothing until you’ve well stabilized against Goblins unless you are very lucky. It’s terrible against Enchantress. It’s weak against Dredge. And it’s suboptimal against those slower control decks. To me, Counterbalance isn’t a lock card, it’s a mid-game source of card advantage. Instead of playing a more expensive draw spell like Fact or Fiction, this deck plays Counterbalance to generate card advantage. It’s simply too porous in the early game to be reliable, and it actually allows your opponent to gain threats on the board like Predator, Goyf, and Bob unless you are somewhat lucky and then have very early Top. Thus, Counterbalance is important — very important – but I’d rather have turn 2 Bob and then work into Counterbalance where I am more likely to be able to actually counter something. Thus, I felt that I was better off running Thoughtseize and Clique, and cards of that nature. They allowed me to win even when my opponent has a god draw. They can out-tempo my opponent so that even if they have Counterbalance, I can win before they can stabilize. In short, I felt that my configuration gave me the best chance to beat the best opponents getting good draws. Thus, Thoughtseize, Clique, and 4th Daze. (I spoke about this somewhat last week, but I think it’s a clear error not to have 4 Daze. It’s too good in this format.) I simply do not believe that Sower is better than Clique. Clique takes the best card from my opponent’s hand and is a reliable source of damage. Clique also gives you two more three casting cost spells, which is better with Counterbalance anyway. The information Clique gives you allows you to run not just your hand better, but your use of Top and Counterbalance, among other cards. In addition to being a brisk clock in the air — 3 power is a big difference than Sower and Predator’s 2 (note that I ran 2 Predator, and have since January). Clique allows you to translate a couple of strikes with Goyf on the ground into a short clock. Sower and Shackles are slow, they are much weaker against decks that are good against you, and they, in my view, assume your opponent is worse. Thoughtseize and Clique also directly trump both of those cards. I honestly believe that I am favorable against both Nassif and Probasco… well, at least their decks.
Coming into this tournament, it was my general assessment that the format was soft to Thoughtseize and other Duress effects. As I canvassed the format, I realized that the structure of Legacy had always been shaped in certain ways, and Duress had never really been that good. For the first time, I thought that Thoughtseize was really potent, but there hadn’t been a major tournament with Legacy in which the metagame was shaped such that it was that strong. Think about the format even a few months ago: Dreadtill, Counterbalance Goyf, Landstill, Goblins — against which of these decks was Thoughtseize weak? None, really. And then, as the metagame shifted with the possibility of Elves, Enchantress, and the other emergent decks, it only seemed stronger and stronger. I asked LSV around round 7 of Day 1 what he thought of Thoughtseize, and his response was that he thought they weren’t good enough in the mid-game. He also said that Top is so prevalent that too many players make plays off of the top of their libraries. I told him I thought they were amazing in the mirror, and he said he ran them in his board for that reason. I suppose I saw myself as pre-boarded, in a sense. But I also believe — despite what LSV said, and I respect his view tremendously, that this remains the case, and I believe that I’ll be proven correct in time. What LSV said is also true of Daze, but no one would argue that Daze is not an auto-include. So to that extent, that is not a reason, by itself, to not run maindeck Thoughtseizes. What’s more, Thoughtseize is actually better in the mid-game than Daze. But if Thoughtseize isn’t quite as bombtastic right now as I think it is, and I think it is, then Clique is still amazing. It’s never dead, even in the mid-game, where you can use it on yourself, or choose not to use it at all.
In fact, if there is one change that I’ll be making after this tournament to my main board, it’s this: I will be cutting the 4th Thoughtseize for a 3rd Clique. Turn 3 Clique is just incredible against such a wide swath of the metagame. If your opponent hasn’t played Sower or Shackles at that point, there is a good chance you can nab it.
Which brings me to Shackles and Sower. I really don’t find them that threatening. If they take one of your creatures, it’s not that hard to clock the ground then try to win with flyers. If they decide to untap and take one of your flyers, well, you are back on having Goyf beatdown. In any case, Plow on Sower is devastating and Predator, Clique, and K. Grip can all trump Shackles. To me, Sower and Shackles are in no way better than the cards I was running for this deck’s bad matchups.
Now, with that out of the way, there was one other thing I wanted to comment on: Nassif’s decision to run 20 lands instead of 4 Ponder. I don’t think he was wrong at all. While some sources argued that 16 lands was the correct number, in fact, I toyed around with playing a 19th land in my Path/4th Thoughtseize slot. If we know the metagame is going to be feeding on the Counterbalance deck, one of the ways that happens is through attacking the manabase. While I fully expected Ancient Tomb stax decks to do horribly, as they did, I did foresee decks like Merfolk and Goblins and so forth attacking the mana base. Gabriel’s matchup against Dave Kaplan was partly so favorable because Caplan’s whole mana denial plan could work very little if Gabriel could keep drawing lands. That said, I am not sure that 20 lands are needed going forward. Here’s why: the main difference I saw from local Legacy tournaments was that the wide swath of pros or those trying to be pros were responsible for the huge numbers of Merfolk and Goblins decks, and other tribal decks that attack the manabase. In more local tournaments, slower control decks tend to be more predominant. As we return to local environments, Merfolk will decrease in numbers and Goblins will disappear again. In these much heavier blue environments that will define not only local legacy tournaments, but also the Legacy Championship at GenCon this year, I think that 18-19 lands is probably going to prove the right number. Legacy players will look at Nassif’s list and think that decks like Landstill and It’s the Fear are the way to go.
There is much more I could say, but I will simply add some remarks to my earlier allusions to about Enchantress. In the final Meandeck Open prior to this event, a local dominated the tournament with Enchantress. Here’s what he played:
Creatures (4)
Lands (19)
Spells (38)
In the tournament he faced 5 Counterbalance decks and crushed them all. It turns out — surprise surprise — that Choke and Blood Moon (plus plenty of tutors to find them) dominate Counterbalance decks. I discovered that Luis Scott-Vargas went 6-0 in 2007 Magic Worlds with this deck, which only added fuel to the fire. Check this out. So, I tested this deck intensively, and here were my findings:
1) This deck does indeed beat Counterbalance decks, but not as easily if the opponent knows what they are doing. The rise in the use of Trygon Predator also slightly weakens this deck. But my deck, with Thoughtseizes and Cliques actually evened the matchup.
2) This deck has a terrible manabase. It’s incredibly clunky, but after working on it a while, I couldn’t figure out a way to smooth it out. It is what it is.
3) This deck is a dog to Aggro Loam and Ichorid, among other matchups.
Depending on how the metagame shifts, I foresee this deck being a competitor, since it so easily preys on the blue based decks. It’s especially a powerful weapon for local tournaments.
Format Analysis
Legacy is really a great format. It’s deep, it’s wide, it’s interesting. If TK’s deck, and the other decks in that Top 8 weren’t interesting enough, just below were a swath of fascinating decks. In fact, one of my favorite moments of the tournament was watching the final round of the swiss. I sat down in an empty chair next to Luis Scott-Vargas, as he played Andy Probasco. And sitting next to them, in full view, was Rueben Bressler playing Tommy Kolowith. I couldn’t decide which match was more interesting! Tommy quickly combed out in game 1, and in game 2 Reuben got down Trinisphere and Magus of the Moon and Tommy still almost broke through it. Tommy ended up winning, but Rueben’s Imperial Painter deck was also teched out with Active Volcano! Take that, Chronicles! Andy and LSV had each split a game when I had to leave for round 2 of the Vintage tournament. Incidentally, I watched LSV do something that blew my mind. He was sideboarding out Force of Wills! I asked Tommy at dinner that night whether he would ever sideboard out Force of Wills, and he was incredulous as I was. It actually occurred to me that card advantage actually is so important in Legacy that under the right circumstances, it could be the right play.
I think it would be a tremendous error if Wizards banned Sensei’s Divining Top. The metagame created by Counterbalance-Top is diverse and fair, and clearly popular. If they banned top, I think it would result in something of a reversion. I think that this metagame is clearly healthier and more diverse than the one that was dominated and defined by Goblins. Banning Top would return the Counterbalance Goyf decks to more closely resemble Dave Kaplan’s deck, or variants thereof, and I don’t think that would be a good thing. The loss of the source of card advantage would make the format even more tempo oriented, and make slower decks even less viable. I believe that the squeeze Counterbalance puts on the format is the opposite of the one that Mana Drain puts on Vintage. It forces players to run higher casting cost spells. Thus, things like Wrath of God and Elspeth have a potential role. Do we really want Elves to be a top deck in this format? I believe that would happen if Top was banned.
Final Thoughts
Grand Prix: Chicago was — by any measure — an unparalleled success. In the midst of a worsening economy, it is incredible to me that so many players came out to play with what is sometimes criticized as an expensive format. Legacy is good for everyone. It’s good for Vintage, in my view, because players acquire cards like Force of Will and dual lands that are staples in Vintage. It’s good for dealers and shops because they have a market for cards that otherwise wouldn’t have value — cards like Lion’s Eye Diamond and Natural Order. This allows dealers to put more money back into packs and boxes and sell more cards. It’s good for players, since skill does win. It’s not a surprise that a professional magic players has won each Legacy Grand Prix. And all of this is good for Magic.
Which means that Wizards really has no choice. They should hold annual Legacy Grand Prix’s here in the US and in Europe. When you smash previous records, there is really no reason not to continue with an annual Legacy tournament. But, at the same time, the trial system is broken. I routinely saw Trials that had 10 players. I do not know why so few players competed in the trials, which I took as a foreshadowing to the actual turnout for the GP, but Wizards needs to do something about it.
I’ll admit, I was not have a big fan of Legacy going into Grand Prix: Philadelphia. It struck me as a boring format. Grand Prix Columbus can’t be fairly described as “Legacy.” In the last few months, I’ve really come to appreciate the format. And I’m looking forward to playing Legacy at GenCon (although my sister’s wedding prevents me from competing in the Vintage champs). To me, Vintage is the Ferrari of Magic: It’s fast, exciting and sexy. Legacy is a little bit slower. It’s sort of like a BMW or a Porsche. It’s fun, it’s just not as intense or as thrilling, but it’s still a sexy beast.
…
The January-February Vintage Metagame Report
1. Metagame Breakdown by Archetype
There are nine reported Vintage tournaments of 33 or more players in January and February on three different continents, for a total of 72 possible Top 8 spots. Here are the results (placement in Top 8 in parenthesis).
9 Events (72 Top 8 Decks)
12 Tezzeret (1,2,2,3,3,3,4,4,5,7,7,8)
8 Fish (2 UR, 3 BUG, 2 UW, 1 Mono-U) (1,1,4,6,6,7,7,8)
7 Control Slaver (2,3,4,5,6,7,8) (1 is Tez hybrid, 2 others have Vault/Key)
6 UR or 5c Stax (1,2,2,3,3,7)
5 Painter (2,2,5,6,7)
4 Bomberman (and variants) (1,1,4,8)
4 Repeal Gifts Control (5,6,6,8)
4 Oath (5,5,8,8)
4 Ichorid (1,3,6,7)
3 TPS (1,6,8)
2 Shaymora (1)
2 Mono Red Workshop Aggro (3,4)
2 Deez’ Naughts
1 BGu Aggro
1 Belcher
1 MUD
1 Culling the Weak Tendrils Combo
1 Mono Red Aggro/Burn
1 Hermit Druid Combo
1 Goblins
1 Workshop Beatdown
1 Workshop Slaver/Orb
1 Uba Stax
2. Breakdown by Archetype as Percentage of Top 8s
Tezzeret (16.6% of Top 8s)
Fish (11%)
Control Slaver (9.7%)
Stax (8.3%)
Painter (6.9%)
Oath (5.55%)
Bomberman (5.55%)
European (Repeal Gifts) Control (5.55%)
Ichorid (5.55%)
Rest of the Metagame: 26.3%
Compare this data to the November/December statistics:
Tezzeret Control (23% of Top 8s)
Ichorid (10%)
Control Slaver (10%)
Fish (9%)
TPS (7%)
MUD (6%)
Painter Combo (5%)
European Control (5%)
Oath (5%)
Rest of the Metagame: 20%
3. Analysis
Tezzeret remains the best performing deck with a strong lead. It fell from the incredible heights of November and December to around 17%, which is about where Gifts Ungiven decks were performing in the year before Gifts was restricted.
Fish’s numbers aren’t much higher than they were in the last data set, but the remaining metagame has fallen off a bit, so in the aggregate, it is now the second best performing deck, often on the back of Null Rod protected by cards like Force of Will, Daze, Cursecatcher, and Stifle.
Control Slaver is holding steady in the same position.
Stax has surged, and is now essentially tied for the third best performing deck. These Stax decks do not resemble the MUD decks of last season, but instead are a throwback to the Gifts and pre-Gifts era Stax lists. This is unsurprising since the Tezzeret era resembles the Gifts era.
Oath, Painter, and European Control are both performing around the same levels as in the last metagame report.
The biggest difference is that Ichorid has fallen substantially, but we can attribute that to normal metagame variances. It was overrepresented in the last data set and has returned to its pre-November levels.
Finally, Bomberman has suddenly re-appeared and won two of the seven tournaments in this data set. Do we have a re-emergent contender? Time will tell.
4. Breakdown by Engine
Giving merely an archetype breakdown can paint a misleading portrait of the structure of the Vintage metagame, just as listing various Gush based archetypes individually concealed the true extent of the Gush-Bond engine. For that reason, it is important to breakdown the Vintage metagame by engine to look for dominance and distortion.
33 Mana Drain Decks (45.83% of the Vintage Metagame)
14 Null Rod Decks (19.44%)
12 Mishra’s Workshop Decks (16.66%)
5 Dark Ritual decks (6.9%)
4 Bazaar decks (5.55%)
4 Other decks (5.55%)
Compare that to the November/December Metagame breakdown by engine:
43 Mana Drain Decks (45% of Top 8s)
12 Null Rod Decks (13%)
11 Mishra’s Workshop Decks (11%)
11 Bazaar of Bagdad Decks (11%)
10 Dark Ritual Decks (10%)
9 Other decks (9%)
5. Analysis
The Vintage metagame remains warped by dominant Mana Drain decks. Mana Drain pilots are implementing their engine in many ways, just as Gush players did, playing Gushbond in Painter, Grow, and Oath, but instead are playing Tezzeret, Painter, Slaver and Bomberman.
There does not appear to be a successful predator to Mana Drain decks as there was in the Gush era. Dark Rituals, the most likely predator, and the most successful historically, do not appear to be seeing much play or success. Fish decks and Stax decks appear to be beating some Drain decks, and that is what has brought them back into the top of the Vintage metagame, just as they were in the Gifts era, but they are far less successful overall.
Until next time…
P.S. – Like Adrian Sullivan, I want to wish fellow Vintage players Tommy Kolowith and Andy Probasco the best of luck on the Pro Tour. Adrian Sullivan wrote that “Just getting on the Tour is not enough; our own Stephen Menendian was handed the chance of a lifetime in Valencia, but couldn’t convert it. Tommy has the right amount of impressive play skill and desire to maybe make that hard conversion, and I’m hoping that he does.” I definitely think that Tommy has the play skill to compete on the Pro Tour as well, but I would just remind Adrian — in my defense — that I was not trying to play on the Pro Tour. Rather, I was there as a stopover for what really was a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity: the Magic Invitational. (Admittedly, it’s a little bit of mixed emotions reflecting on the Invitational since had I known that they were going to allow Lorwyn, I would have done better than 1-2 on the Vintage, and had I had Samurai of the Pale Curtain in my BYOS sideboard, I would have 3-0ed that format instead of 2-1, and potentially made the finals at 9-6 instead of going 6-9, which I suppose is still respectable.) And with no testing whatsoever I still managed to start 3-1 at Valencia, get a feature match, and accumulate more wins than Tom LaPille did the entire day (<3 Tom). But in any case, I have never had a desire — which Adrian cites as important — to compete on the Pro Tour. Patrick asked me why, and intimated "big fish in little pond." The truth is that I just don't find the other formats exciting or interesting enough to want to test and put all that work into them. Had I earned the invites, I would have gone to Honolulu, but mostly to soak up the sun. I prefer the Ferrari or at least the sports car for something that I play as merely a serious hobby, and not as a profession.
Appendix:
1.3.09
Blue Bell (Philly,PA) (52 players)
Tezzeret Won
1.17.09
Catalan Vintage League (77 players)
UR Stax Won
Salem, Mass (35 players)
Shaymora Won
1.18.09
Madrid, Spain (50 players)
Bomberman Won
1.25.09
Almelo, Netherlands (42 players)
TPS won
2.7.09
Blue Bell, Philadelphia (40 players)
Fish Won
2.8.09
Mol, Belgium (37 players)
Bomberman Won
2.22.09
Manila, Philippines (40 players)
Ichorid won
2.28.09
Catalan Vintage League (74 players)
Fish Won