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Bluffing is a very complex subject in Magic. In poker, you bluff when you want to steal a big pot, or when you want to test your opponent. In Magic, you rarely do so for more than two or three damage, making it far less interesting.

In these cases, when must you use the bluff, and how can you prevent it from happening to you?

…

The most common bluff concerns the attack phase in Limited. It consists of convincing your opponent that you are holding a card without which your attack would make no sense at all.

Useful Bluffing

Let’s take a first example. You have Canyon Minotaur, Forest, Plains, and two Mountains on the board, while your opponent is tapped out and has a pair of Cylian Elves. In hand, you are holding another two lands, Beacon Behemoth, and Cavern Thoctar. If you attack and he double blocks, you’ll trade a 3/3 for a 2/2, which seems pretty bad. However, do you really think he is going to block? Would you really make this attack if you didn’t have Magma Spray, Dark Temper, Resounding Thunder, Branching Bolt, Might of Alara, Sigil Blessing, or Resounding Roar in hand? He will take the damage 95% of the time to avoid card disadvantage, in particular when some of these cards don’t hurt your tempo and allow you, in theory, to play a second spell in the second main phase.

In the 5% of the time when he blocks, this is no big deal. You only traded a creature for a slightly smaller one. But if he takes the damage, not only did you deal him 15% of the damage it takes to win a game, he will also be convinced for the rest of the game that you have a trick in hand, and play around a card you may not even be running in your deck.

Even though there are exceptions, in general, I’m not a huge fan of the “attacking with the small guy into the big guy” bluff, as its effects can be disastrous when you get caught. However, you must use it if you are convinced there is no conventional way for you to take the game. In that case, when it works, keep in mind your opponent is convinced you have a pump spell in hand. Therefore, keep the right mana open to make him understand what card he should play around. For instance, if you want him to play around Resounding Roar and you have WWRRG untapped, tap WWR when you want to play Oblivion Ring. Thus, he will take this as a message that you don’t have Sigil Blessing.

Another exception occurs when a situation seems totally hopeless. In this case, you must think hard for any way in which you could possibly have to get back in business. What’s left in your deck? Is there a draw or a combination of draws that can help you turn the tables in your favor? If you are running Soul’s Fire, Resounding Roar, Resounding Thunder, and Naya Charm, and you know you are definitely losing in a few turns, try and think of a way you could make good use of a topdeck. Let’s say it’s your turn, and the situation is as follows:

YOU: 10 life, no cards in hand, Jungle Shrine, 2 Forest, 3 Plains, Aven Trailblazer (2/2), Rhox Meditant, Elvish Visionary
HIM: 6 Life, one card in hand, 3 Swamp, 2 Island, 2 Plains, 2 Esper Cormorants (one tapped and one untapped), Parasitic Strix (tapped), Puppet Conjurer, Steelclad Serpent

The game seems pretty much over. However, you think of the remaining cards in your deck, and realize you are running a Naya Charm that could put your opponent on 1 life (tapping his guys down and allowing a swing for 5). In this scenario, you have no choice: you must attack with the Aven. He will block most of the time, but if he doesn’t, you have a small chance to take that hopeless game.

One last thing concerning the bluff attack aimed at stealing a little of the opponent’s life: do not attack with all your guys. Such desperate moves will make your opponent wonder how he could lose the game, what you can have in hand, and spend time reviewing all the possibilities. What you’re aiming to do is take advantage of your opponent’s excessive confidence in his chances to win the game. We have all made this mistake… we are convinced the game is ours, and relax a little in the face of imminent victory. And sometimes, there is a tall price to pay for such arrogance.

To conclude this section, let me reiterate that these bluffs are not something you should use in most games. They becomes necessary in games you feel you cannot win, as least as far as theory is concerned.

How should you react when you suspect a bluff ?

Let’s use the Canyon Minotaur attacking into the two Cylian Elves example once again, but this time you’re the defending player. Try and think of all the cards that could justify this attack, as it is very important to know all the tricks your opponent could possibly have. Then, if this is not the first game in the match, think about which of these cards you have seen previously. If you think you’ve identified the card being represented, check in your hand for a fast answer. A trick’s weakness usually is that it ends badly in a two-for-one trade (when the guy is hit with removal in response, or the trick meets countermagic), or at best in a one-for-one trade with a tempo handicap (meeting a bounce spell).

If you do have one of these answers, and you’ve let such an attack through before, try and manufacture the same situation again. Let’s say your opponent played Sigil Blessing in the first game. You have five lands and your hand is Gift of the Gargantua, Resounding Thunder, and Bloodpyre Elemental. Just play the Gift with RG untapped; you’ll probably draw a sixth land. Then play the land and pass. If he attacks you again, fine… double block, and he’ll be screwed no matter what.

Misinformation

Misinformation is the most useful and least dangerous bluff technique. Your goal is to lead your opponent to think you have a card in hand, and therefore play around it.

The most common example is the “bluff around the countermagic spell” approach. You can do this in two ways. The first is to act like you’re going to play a spell during your main phase before, eventually, passing. In order to do so, you must take a brief pause of “pretended thinking,” and possibly start manipulating a land as if you’re going to tap it for mana.

The earlier in the game you try this, the most useful this method is. It’s not so useful with ten lands on the table… you’ll make your opponent think you’ve hesitated playing Mind Stone.

The consequence of this method is to give your opponent second thoughts on which spell to play on their next turn. It may push him to play the second- or third-best spell he is holding, to give his best card a better chance to resolve later.

The second technique is to pause and think when your opponent casts a spell, before allowing it to resolve. Your opponent may think the spell resolved because it wasn’t that much of a threat for you, and, when he eventually draws a good card, he’ll think twice before casting it. This method works even better if you have a solution to the spell you officially considered denying. For instance, if your opponent plays Figure of Destiny, and you take a little while before allowing it to resolve, with two cards in hand, before eventually playing Terror on his guy at the end of turn, your opponent is very likely to consider your second card in hand to be Cryptic Command.

Of course, if you try this technique when the spell resolving is obviously a pain, your bluffs only effect will be a loss of time.

Misinformation works pretty well in Limited too. For instance, if you have eight lands including at least a Plains, a Forest, and an Island, and your opponent has three guys, it is better to pass than to play a spell that won’t do much. This way, he will think of Resounding Silence and play around it, either passing the turn or only attacking with one guy.

Of course, we also have the opposite scenario. When you do hold one of those cards in hand, try to think for a minimum amount of time, and pass as if it was your only option, so you don’t leak any precious information.

The Bluff… or Not

All the methods we’ve studied previously aim for one thing: pushing your opponent to think you are holding a card you actually don’t have. But the technique that pays off the most is the exact opposite. The most efficient method is to actually convince your opponent to think “he’s bluffing,” when you’re actually not bluffing at all.

Once again, considering the Canyon Minotaur versus Cylian Elves scenario, only this time you’re the Minotaur mage again. You just drew Magma Spray, and are hoping for a slaughter double-block.

Pretend you’re about to put your latest draw into play in the land zone, but change your mind and play another land instead. Then hold your 3/3 as if you’re debating whether to attack… and then reconsider, and leave him. Think for another two seconds or so, and swing.

This type of play works even better later in the game, especially when your opponent has the advantage, as it amplifies the bluff impression of your attack if he thinks you’re struggling to win.

Bluffing and counter-bluffing is a rich topic, and one I’m sure to discuss further in later articles. While a great deal of these theories may seem simplistic, if you concentrate on the easy things, you will reap the rewards. This article, due to run last Friday, was delayed due to a technical oversight. I’ll be back with a fresh article tomorrow: a collaboration with Manuel Bucher.

Until then…

Olivier Ruel