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Today I’ll talk about the hands I left at the end of last week’s article. For that, I sent questions to a bunch of Pro Players and they replied with their answers as to keep/mulligan, and some explanation on each. Since Mulligan is not an exact science, it’s understandable that they disagree between themselves sometimes, as well as with me – that is actually the point of this article. If I had all the ultimate answers for all those hands, I’d have no need to call anyone else – so even though I might not agree with someone’s decision, I still respect it, because, after all, I did ask them to talk about it and I’d not do that if I at least didn’t respect what they had to say. I tried to get players to talk about decks I knew they had played in competitive events (which is why I chose hands from decks that I have played, so I can talk about them), but some of them just went ahead and answered everything.
That said, a big thanks for Martin, Ben, Sam, Olivier and Manuel, without whom this article would not exist!
Let’s go over the hands:
1 - Playing this:
4
4
2
3
4
4
4
2 for Knowledge
2
3
3 Umezawa’s Jitte
2
4
3
1
1
1
1
12
On the play:
for Knowledge
Sam Black:
I know that most people in the forums said they would mulligan this, but I like the hand. Depending on what you play against, you can cash in the spell you draw on turn 2 47% of the time to accelerate and significantly change the hand with into expecting to discard Mutavault and , or you can wait a turn to Thirst discarding Mox. Your lands give you a lot of action and make all the wizards in your deck much better. This hand is pretty good against every slower deck where the lands are really good (B/G, the mirror, TEPS), and generally has a reasonable chance to turn into something very different within the first few turns.
Martin Juza:
This hand is fine in the mirror and against slow decks in general, but bad against an unknown opponent. If he goes turn 1 ///... you lose. Ship.
Ben Lundquist:
Mulligan. It’s far too slow. No counterspells or spells that will let you back in the game after falling behind.
Manuel Bucher:
I would keep this hand on the play. If you draw any colored spell you are able to play a second turn if they don’t hit you with a disruption spell on turn 1, and you are not hurt by discarding two cards as you can easily discard an Island and Mutavault number two. For the mirror match and any midrange or control-based deck, your hand is very good, as both Mutavault and are very useful cards. Any non-land, non-Vedalken and non-Chrome Mox draw is very good. The hand is a bit weak against Naya and Storm, so if I have a read or the information that my opponent is one of those archetypes, a mulligan is fine.
Paulo Vitor:
This hand happened to me in the first round of Grand Prix: Hanover, and I mulliganed it. I believe this hand is a keep against some decks, and a mulligan against others, but against the decks it’s good it’s not “OMG I WIN” good, and against the decks it’s bad… it’s pretty bad. You have the problem that if you decide not to imprint something on turn 2 to play Thirst, you’ll have no action in the first three turns, and if you decide to play Thirst turn 2 that means you just got rid of the only spell you actually drew to get yourself another land, of which you have plenty. Though the lands are good lands, I don’t think this hand is worth it, as there is so much that can actually go wrong. I also disagree with Sam about this hand being good against TEPS – I’d not keep it if I knew that’s what they were playing, though I’d keep it if I knew it was the mirror or BG. In the forums, Adam Prosak said he’d keep the hand if you exchanged an Island for a – I’m of a similar mind.
Mulligan: 3
Keep: 2
On the play:
Island
Island
Breeding Pool
Laboratory
Spellstutter Sprite
Sower of Temptation
Umezawa’s Jitte
Sam:
Again, I just love lab, so it's hard for me to turn down that with two wizards. I feel like if you're not going to keep hands like this, you should probably be playing the Cryptic/Tarmogoyf Blue deck rather than the wizard Blue deck, as you're more willing to live without Lab than I am. I don't like the hand as much as the other one, but I think I'd keep it. You can't expect to do too much better against Elves or Bant and you have Riptide Lab and Sower for the mirror…
Martin:
I think I keep this one. It’s far from good but you can’t expect to have a perfect hand every time. That’s the downside of playing a deck with answers; sometimes you just get all the cards against creatures and Minds Desire runs you over.
Ben:
Keep. This looks like a good hand to me, and you shouldn't expect a better one after a mulligan.
Manuel:
I would mulligan this hand unless I am sure my opponent is Bant. In the mirror you have to be the aggressor, and if he can deal with Umezawa’s Jitte and , you almost always lose. The hand is very slow against Naya and Storm, and there are not many cards to improve it. Usually you need two good draw steps to make the hand good ( or into , or Mutavault). The hand’s first disruption is a turn 4 most of the time – which is usually too slow and fragile.
PV:
I think this hand is pretty close, much closer than the other, and I have mixed feelings about it – it’s the one I’m the least sure about. When I wrote the other article, my opinion was to mulligan it, but then I read the responses from the players and it makes some sense that you can’t have a perfect hand every time. This hand seems to be good against aggro, but I think this is misleading – this hand is not actually good versus Zoo - turn 1 and you are staring at a hand full of blanks. It does however have elements against all the kind of decks – Spellstutter (and to a less extent Jitte) against the fast ones and Sower and Jitte against the midrange ones, which means you don’t need much more for the hand to work, and at the same time you aren’t powerless if you find out they are playing something like combo. In the end, my conclusion is that I’d keep it, though I’m not happy about it and I certainly understand shipping it back like Manuel does – this is, to me, the hardest hand.
Keep: 4
Mulligan: 1
2 - Playing this:
4
4 Scion Of Oona
2 Sower Of Temptation
3
1
4
4
1
3
2
3
4
6 Island
3
4 Mutavault
4
4
4
On the play:
Island
Island
Mutavault
Sam:
Mulligan. I don't think Faeries is as much all about as many people seem to. This will lose to almost everyone, and every land you draw from here on is basically blank. This hand is just terrible. I would much rather have a two- or three-land six-card hand, or a four-land six-card hand if it had Bitterblossom and another spells. Between those possibilities, I'm pretty sure the six will look better on average.
Ben:
I like to mulligan a lot in Constructed, especially with the Faerie deck. I have won a lot of games with mulligans to five with this deck, and I think it mulligans very well. That said, the first hand is pretty close because I consider Mutavault a spell in this hand, and being on the play lets you be aggressive. I think this hand is good against Five-Color Control, and if it's possible to get any kind of read on what your opponent is playing by their intelligence level, I would base it on that. It seems risky against most other decks though, and I would mulligan it unless I was playing one of the people that is known to play Five-Color Control, like Chapin or the Ruels.
PV:
I actually like this hand a lot, and I’d keep it in this situation every time. I agree with Ben that the deck mulligans very well, and you find yourself going to five a lot and you still win – but this happens because you have cards such as Bitterblossom. If you can win with a five-cards hand because you have Bitterblossom, why wouldn’t the same apply to this hand?
I think it’s not an absurd thing to say that, on the play against an unknown opponent, I’d keep any hand that is able to produce Black, Blue, and a Bitterblossom, no matter what the other cards are. The deck needs its mana, especially since you have a Mutavault there, and the Blossom on turn 2 is going to buy you enough time to draw into more relevant spells – though against some matches you don’t need a lot more than that.
I had this hand at Worlds (though I’m not sure the six lands are the same) and I mulliganed it, but it was game 2, on the draw, against Elves, a deck I knew had s. In the dark, and especially on the play where they are almost always powerless to stop you from playing your Bitterblossom, I’d keep it every time. If you keep and they go turn 1 Thoughtseize, and then you draw more lands, sure, you lose, but not many decks are able to play turn 1 Thoughtseize nowadays, and if they do play it you’re probably not much better with a six-card hand anyway.
Mulligan: 2
Keep: 1
Playing against the Mirror, on the play:
Island
Island
Bitterblossom
Bitterblossom
Sam:
On the draw I'd think about it, but on the play it's just too much of a gamble. I have a 28% chance to hit Black on turn 2 and about a 37% chance to still have missed on turn 4. I'm about 50/50 to play the Bitterblossom by turn 3, but if it comes any later than that my odds of resolving it are very low. I think you have to mulligan on the play, but again, on the draw you're at ~50% to turn 2 Bitterblossom and ~63% to turn 3 it, so that's more reasonable, but I certainly wouldn't fault someone for shipping it either way.
Ben:
This hand isn't even close, in my opinion. You can't do anything with this hand, and isn't even that good once you get to four mana. You don't have a Black source to cast Bitterblossom, or a way to stop their turn 2 Bitterblossom. Trading the Clique for something like would be more tempting, but I think even then it would be a mulligan.
PV:
I agree with Ben here too. The hand is too much of a gamble, and not really close. I’d not keep this on the draw and I’d not keep it if there was a – there is nothing that will make me keep this short of a Black-producing land.
Mulligan: 3
Keep: 0
3 - Playing this:
2
4
4 Broken Ambitions
4
4
2
3
3
3
2
3 Wrath Of God
2 Island
2
2
2
1
4
3
4
3
3
On the play:
Cryptic Command
Ben:
Mulligan - This is exactly why I haven't played with Vivid lands since I tested for last Block Constructed season. These hands always frustrate me, and you can count on seeing them. You won't find me playing this deck.
Olivier Ruel:
That one is a close one. It does have lands and spells, but the tempo advantage you get when playing first will be canceled by all the Vivid lands if you don't draw any other land. However, you have good odds to draw it, and even though your hand is not very good, a mulligan probably won't make it better. If I saw someone mulliganing this, I wouldn't be shocked, but I keep.
Manuel:
I would keep it, and, unless your opponent is Faeries, you have a very good chance of winning. If you draw one of the sixteen untapped lands in the first two draw steps, the hand gets very good. If not, Cryptic Command and Ajani should give you time to draw into a , which should help against most decks. In the mirror the hand is fine as well, as you can build a lot of pressure with Ajani if you draw an untapped land in the first three draw steps.
PV:
I mulligan this hand. Even if you do draw an untapped land, you have to play on turn 3 and then hope to draw into another one so you can play your four-mana spells – and even then, you aren’t doing much unless you happened to also draw something like . If you exchange one of the Vivids for one that comes into play untapped, I keep this hand, but as it is you need two untapped lands and some action if they had a fast draw, and this is just too much for me.
Mulligan: 2
Keep: 2
On the draw:
Mulldrifter
Broken Ambitions
Cryptic Command
Ben:
Mulligan - again, nice deck… Do you actually want to play Magic, or flip a coin and decide if you get to play?
Olivier:
Your hand would be perfect if it had a third land. You are running 26, and 22 of the next 53 are good for you. Meaning you have 40% chance to find one immediately, and about 80% chance to have it on turn 3. I think Broken + Mulldrifter should be enough to reach the 4 lands and 5 different mana colors. Being on the draw, you will probably not have better chance to take the game. When you're on the draw with Toast, you lose about 60% of the games. Even though there is a 20% chance I pretty much don't play that game, I keep as I think I definitely have 40% chance to win versus anything with these seven cards, which are odds that mulligans would only make lower.
Manuel:
I would keep it every time. Twenty out of the 24 Lands in the deck improve your hand. If you draw one of those lands in your first draw step or one of the 10 untapped colored lands in the second (not counting ), the hand is unreal. If you draw a tapped land on the second or third turn, your first disruption is on their turn 3 (the best you could do under draw anyway).
PV:
This hand is tough, because it’s pretty much perfect if you draw any land by turn 3. Even if your land is a Vivid land by turn 3, you can still cast Terror and Broken Ambitions that turn, and the fact that they’re two Pools means you can cast Fallout as soon as you draw a Red source. If you count that you can draw an , your chances of drawing a color-producing land by turn 3 on the draw are a little bigger than 80%, as Olivier said, and even if you don’t count that you can draw Orchard it’s still around 77% - the hand is good enough when you draw one of those to take the risk of it when you don’t, and it has the necessary cards for a comeback if you happen to draw them later, or ones that come into play tapped, so I keep it.
Keep: 3
Mulligan: 1
On the play, against Five-Color Control (Nassif’s Version):
Reflecting Pool
Vivid Creek
Exotic Orchard
Sunken Ruins
Cryptic Command
Ben:
Keep - one of the best hands for the matchup, pretty much the only matchup I want to play with this deck. (One would think reading from those answers that Ben doesn’t like Five-Color Control, heh)
Olivier:
I keep if I know he is playing this and if this is game 1 (as he has on game 2). Even though I mulligan 95% of my six-landers, I keep that one as in the Toast mirror, drawing lots of lands is extremely useful.
Manuel:
Not even close, one of the best hands you can get. Not missing land drops is crucial in the matchup – and Mulldrifter and are only there to help you not miss them. You usually don’t need early disruption, as all they do is playing some card draw spells in the early game (which you don’t counter anyway) and prepare for a big fight about . Usually your opponent should be afraid to tap out turn 6 for a , as you can follow it up with an end of turn Cryptic Command into (so he can’t Ultimatum you back).
PV:
It seems I wasn’t very fortunate in my choice of example with this hand – maybe I should have made it seven Lands to make it more tempting? Anyway, yes, this hand is pretty good in this matchup. In any other matchup I’ll instantly mulligan it, but in the Mirror it’s about as good as it gets.
Keep: 4
Mulligan: 0
4 – You’re playing this:
8
7
2
2
3
2
2
Soul’s Majesty
On the play:
Martin:
100% ship. Not close.
Ben:
Mulligan - This might as well be a joke. Those "spells" are some of the worst in the deck and cycling when you are flooded is pretty terrible. I would mulligan to five before keeping this hand.
Olivier:
Mulligan without thinking for a second. You know you're going to cycle both guys, so your hand is actually five lands plus two random cards, knowing you'll have to cycle if you want to see them. I just don't see how that hand could possibly win a game.
PV:
Mulligan – I posted this hand to see how much the random draw thing tempted people, but apparently not too much. This hand has the problem that you have all your lands and your expensive cards, but then you’ll cycle those in search for early action and by the time you get to late game all your expensive cards will be gone, and you’ll be left with all those lands and nothing to do with them. I agree with Ben – cycling is good for when you’re short on lands, so that you’d trade a spell in your hand for a random card in your deck – when you are full of lands and need spells, the prospect of trading a certain spell for “64% of a spell” is not good.
Mulligan: 4
Keep: 0
5 – You’re playing this:
2
2
2
Absorbing Vis
6 Forest
6
5
On the draw:
Forest
Martin:
I don’t like to keep hands where if you don’t draw a land you almost certainly lose, but this hand has such a good potential that I think I wouldn’t blame anyone for keeping it. I wouldn’t have the guts to keep a one-lander in a deciding game for a Pro Tour Top 8 though.
Ben:
Mulligan - There is nothing I hate more about Magic than not getting to play it when I sit down to do so. The is dead, Drake looks pretty bad in this deck (and hand), and you have to rip more than just a couple of lands.
Olivier:
Mulligan, the deck is so good that I don't want to lose to mana screw. Also, I add in another land for game two… hehe.
PV:
Mulligan - Originally this hand was in the article as “on the play,” but I meant it to be on the draw, which was how it happened. I don’t think you can really consider keeping a one-lander on the play, so I asked Craig to change it to draw in the article so it becomes more interesting. I still think this hand should not be kept – sure, it’s exciting that you have two bombs and you might play turn 4 Broodmate Dragon if you draw 3 lands, but there is also the chance you’ll not draw them. If you have to Infest, and have the two Black sources required, you’ll end up killing your Druid with it, and that’s going to set you back even more. I also like Olivier’s point of “this deck is good, I don’t want to lose to mana problems” – sometimes, when your deck is just bad, it pays off to gamble with 0/10 hands, but in a good deck you should be happier with an average hand that with a hand that could go either way.
Mulligan: 4
Keep: 0
On the play:
Swamp
Swamp
Forest
Forest
Mountain
Mountain
Broodmate Dragon
Ben:
Mulligan - This one is a little closer because the decks curve is so high and you can play anything when you draw it, but waiting for turn 5 or 6 to make a relevant play (even this bomb) is not going to be good enough most of the time. There are too many bad cards that you can draw in this hand, and any kind of aggressive draw or decent hand with tempo spells (like on a land, , or actual removal spells) is going to single-handedly win them the game.
Martin:
Considering I have all the right lands, chances are I’m going to draw one or two cards that I can play before the Dragon, and that plus a turn 6 Broodmate should be enough – Keep.
Olivier:
Keep, the card wins game by itself. Just draw two spells in the first four draws and you'll be just great.
PV:
I keep this – it’s not the best draw ever, but it’s also not a 0/10 like the previous example. You don’t need to draw a lot of efficient cards early on – obviously one of the mass removal spells would be great, but you can do with Druids, Obelisk, , and I believe you should survive even if you get to play turn 5 3/3, turn 6 Broodmate. With this hand, you shouldn’t be troubled by cycling one of the big guys if you draw them, since you have plenty in the deck and you already have a late game plan in hand… you just need early action.
This hand is not like the one from the Wizards website – costs one more and isn’t nearly as powerful as Broodmate. With they just kill it and you lose; with Broodmate, even if they manage to kill one (which isn’t very easy in this format), the other should still be enough to block any of their guys at that point and survive. If the Broodmate Dragon was any other big creature, though, such as a , I would instantly mulligan this hand.
Keep: 3
Mulligan: 1
I guess this is it… I think it’s interesting that you can look at each person’s answers and see how that changes the ways and the decks they play. If you look at Ben, for example, he doesn’t like gambling at all – kinda like me, except even stronger – so he just doesn’t play a deck like Five-Color Control, instead playing a deck like Faeries. Manuel and Olivier, who are more tolerant to this kind of hand you can get often with Five-Color Control, don’t mind playing the deck.
It was nice for me to see different points of view on something like that – I even got convinced to change my mind about an answer by reading the replies I got - and it only serves to show me that there are no ultimate answers to this kind of thing, which probably makes it one of the hardest aspects in the game. I hope you’ve enjoyed it, and see you next week!
PV
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