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Hey everyone, and welcome back Part Two of the Financial Value of Magic: 2010 series! You can find Part One here. In the first article I gave my thoughts about the short-term value of cards in M10. In this week's edition, I'll take a look at a week's worth of M10 sales, talk about how certain M10 cards will affect the value of other previously-existing cards, and discuss a little about the future of Magic (up to Zendikar), and how it may affect other cards.

First, here are our Top 10 Selling M10 Rares (All - no reprints in the Top 10!):

1) Honor of the Pure (Average Price: $7.84. Current Price: $11.99)
2) Silence (Average Price: $9.30. Current Price: $10.99)
3) Elvish Archdruid (Average Price: $5.25. Current Price: $5.99)
4) Rootbound Crag (Average Price: $8.63. Current Price: $9.99)
5) Drowned Catacomb (Average Price: $8.74. Current Price: $9.99)
6) Glacial Fortress (Average Price: $8.69. Current Price: $9.99)
7) Sunpetal Grove (Average Price: $8.73. Current Price: $9.99)
8) Dragonskull Summit (Average Price: $8.59. Current Price: $9.99)
9) Gargoyle Castle (Average Price: $1.32. Current Price: $1.99)
10) Great Sable Stag (Average Price: $5.08. Current Price: $5.99)

Top 10 Selling Reprinted M10 Rares:

1) Ball Lightning
2) Haunting Echoes
3) Polymorph
4) Earthquake
5) Mind Shatter
6) Mind Spring
7) Twincast
8) Manabarbs
9) Warp World
10) Traumatize

Top 5 Selling Mythics:

1) Baneslayer Angel (Average Price: $12.58. Current Price: $14.99)
2) Protean Hydra (Average and Current Price: $2.99)
3) Master of the Wild Hunt (Average and Current Price: $5.99)
4) Time Warp (Average Price: $3.46. Current Price: $3.99)
5) Vampire Nocturnus (Average and Current Price: $2.49)

Honor of the Pure is outselling all expectations, despite it being the promo card that is going to be given away at the store-level for people who purchase M10 boxes at physical locations. Baneslayer Angel tops the list of hottest Mythics, and we will be close to selling through our entire pre-order inventory (if not fully through) by the time that the set comes out next Friday!

Speaking of selling out, it looks like M10 is going to sell through at the distributor level before the release date of M10. What's this mean? Well, in the forums of last week's article, I got into a debate about the overall pricing of singles in M10. I had this to say:

I believe that M10 will be underprinted for demand. The excitement for this set is unprecedented for a base set, and Wizards has every reason to print less of this than a normal expansion set - A) because it's 50% reprints, and B) because it's automatically going to be replaced in a year by M11. I think we're going to see M10 outsell every metric that Wizards had in place for it, and accomplish the goal that Wizards set out to do (bring new players into the game, by having a high-fantasy themed set, with mainly top-down design).

After that was written, I received notice from no less than three of our distributors making a last call for M10 boxes - they believed that they would completely sell out of their supply before the release date, and would be unable to get more through the three (ish) week blackout period Wizards imposes after a set release. There is a very, very good chance that the base price of M10 boxes will quickly rise above the $79.99 presale price, and that, in turn, the price of singles will be at the higher-level I anticipated, due to box shortages. M10 will likely be worth more opened than sealed, unless Wizards really goes and cranks out a larger print run (or the second wave of product after the blackout period is sizable). This is the same as what happened with Future Sight; and pound-for-pound, M10 is a better singles set than Future Sight, excepting the highest-tiered Rare (Tarmogoyf). There are more cards in the $3-$10 range in this set (with 53 Rares and 15 Mythics) than there were during the height of Future Sight (60 Rares).

Future Sight Rares > $3 (From May 4th 2007 - October 3rd, 2008)

1) Akroma's Memorial (Avg. Price: $3.74)
2) Bridge From Below (Avg. Price: $5.68)
3) Coalition Relic (Avg. Price: $5.26)
4) Epochrasite (Avg. Price: $3.80)
5) Glittering Wish (Avg. Price: $5.68)
6) Graven Cairns (Avg. Price: $6.59)
7) Grove of the Burnwillows (Avg. Price: $5.78)
8) Horizon Canopy (Avg. Price: $7.49)
9) Korlash, Heir to Blackblade (Avg. Price: $9.22)
10) Magus of the Moon (Avg. Price: $5.98)
11) Molten Disaster (Avg. Price: $3.01)
12) Nimbus Maze (Avg. Price: $6.83)
13) Pact of Negation (Avg. Price: $8.68)
14) River of Tears (Avg. Price: $6.06)
15) Shimian Specter (Avg. Price: $3.73)
16) Slaughter Pact (Avg. Price: $3.92)
17) Sliver Legion (Avg. Price: $5.37)
18) Summoner's Pact (Avg. Price: $3.71)
19) Tarmogoyf (Avg. Price: $30.68)
20) Tombstalker (Avg. Price: $4.00)
21) Venser, Shaper Savant (Avg. Price: $6.85)

Total Value (Cards > $3): $142.06
Total Number of Rares (60): $2.3676 per Rare
Box Price: $85.24 (opened)

And remember - the $85.24 box price doesn't include Rares worth anything below $3, any Uncommons or Commons (which didn't matter - most of the ones in Future Sight were at bulk prices), or foils.

Compare this to M10:

1) Ball Lightning (Avg. Price: $7.18)
2) Birds of Paradise (Avg. Price: $12.49)
3) Captain of the Watch (Avg. Price: $4.71)
4) Coat of Arms (Avg. Price: $6.99)
5) Dragonskull Summit (Avg. Price: $8.59)
6) Drowned Catacomb (Avg. Price: $8.74)
7) Elvish Archdruid (Avg. Price: $5.27)
8) Elvish Piper (Avg. Price: $4.99)
9) Glacial Fortress (Avg. Price: $8.69)
10) Goblin Chieftain (Avg. Price: $3.99)
11) Great Sable Stag (Avg. Price: $5.08)
12) Haunting Echoes (Avg. Price: $5.31)
13) Honor of the Pure (Avg. Price: $7.84)
14) Howling Mine (Avg. Price: $3.99)
15) Hypnotic Specter (Avg. Price: $3.99)
16) Pithing Needle (Avg. Price: $13.99)
17) Rootbound Crag (Avg. Price: $8.63)
18) Royal Assassin (Avg. Price: $3.99)
19) Siege-Gang Commander (Avg. Price: $5.99)
20) Silence (Avg. Price: $9.30)
21) Sunpetal Grove (Avg. Price: $8.73)
22) Traumatize (Avg. Price: $5.99)
23) Twincast (Avg. Price: $6.99)
24) Underworld Dreams (Avg. Price: $3.49)

Total Value (Rares > $3): $164.95

MYTHICS:
1) Ajani Goldmane (Avg. Price: $14.99)
2) Baneslayer Angel (Avg. Price: $12.58)
3) Bogardan Hellkite (Avg. Price: $4.99)
4) Darksteel Colossus (Avg. Price: $12.49)
5) Garruk Wildspeaker (Avg. Price: $14.99)
6) Jace Beleren (Avg. Price: $12.49)
7) Liliana Vess (Avg. Price: $7.99)
8) Master of the Wild Hunt (Avg. Price: $5.99)
9) Platinum Angel (Avg. Price: $6.99)
10) Time Warp (Avg. Price: $3.46)

Total Value (Mythics > $3): $96.96

A print sheet is 106 Rares (2 of each) and 15 Mythics, so a total run of Mythics would be 2x Rares + 1x Mythics / 121.

2R ($329.90) + 1M ($96.96) = $426.86 / 121 = $3.52 avg. value ($127 a box).

1) There are a large number of higher-dollar Uncommons in M10 (Black Knight, Deathmark, Diabolic Tutor, Elite Vanguard, Fabricate, Flashfreeze, Megrim, Mind Control, Nature's Spiral, Ornithopter, Overrun, Pyroclasm, Relentless Rats, Serra Angel, Whispersilk Cloak, and Windstorm... plus Harm's Way will probably hit the $1 mark before long)

2) There are a larger number of higher-dollar value Commons as well (Doom Blade, Duress, Essence Scatter, Lightning Bolt, Llanowar Elves, Negate, Ponder, Terramorphic Expanse).

Even if you halved the value of every Rare and Mythic in M10, you would still be looking at $63.50 a box. Keep in mind, Commons and Uncommons were no help to Future Sight (at $85 a box). There are a lot of valued Commons and Uncommons in M10. If we put every Uncommon on the list above at $1 (several are above this mark) and every common at $0.50 (several are above this amount as well), here's what you add:

121 Packs opened for Rares/Mythics

In 121 packs, you open 363 Uncommons (3 per pack) and 1210 Commons (10 per pack, not counting ones that disappear due to foil cards).

There are 60 Uncommons in M10, so you would end up with roughly 6 of every Uncommon. With 17 Uncommons valued at $1 or higher (and remember, we're counting them all at $1, regardless), that makes for an additional $102 in value over the course of 121 packs.

There are 101 Commons in M10, so you would end up with just at 12 copies of each common. Putting the eight commons on my list at $0.50 each (again, some are above this mark), you'd end up with another $48 in value.

Add $102 + $48 and divide by 121 (the number of packs you're opening), and the good Commons and Uncommons in M10 are adding about $1.24 value per pack, average. So again, if you HALVED the current price of all M10 Rares and Mythics now worth $3 or over, counted ANY Mythics or Rares under $3 as $0, and added in the Commons and Uncommons, M10 is *STILL* worth $3.00 a pack opened - or $108 per box.

I was not issuing any hyperbole last week when I said that M10 was the best singles set printed in the modern age of Magic; and now that I do the math, M10 is even more ridiculous than I had thought, at a glance. This is why M10 will likely sell out, and the price of boxes will start climbing. Again, I expect boxes, unless Wizards goes to more printings, to run out fully halfway through the year (December/January), and cause the price of M10 to skyrocket (to around $90 a box, unopened, minimum). This will also play short term havoc on singles prices, as it costs more to open product (when available in any significant quantity), which in turn will mean higher prices.

I also fully believe Wizards will end up going to a second print run of M10, that had not originally been intended, due to demand.

Onto some quick shots and different topics:

1) If I were a betting man, I'd put the block theme of Zendikar on "Life Total Matters." Different WotC writers have skirted around the theme in their MTG.com articles, but facts are this - it's a mechanic that has shown up on cards for years, but has never been a block theme. With the removal of Mana Burn, the ability to easily manipulate your life total has been removed, allowing for "Life Total" matters to be a theme. Check out Opal Avenger, Pulse of the Forge, Hidetsugu's Second Rite, and Second Chance for some cards that follow this theme.

2) Speaking of "Life Matters" cards, Pulse of the Fields is my choice for breakout Extended card, thanks to the M10 rules changes. It's now very difficult to keep someone from getting their Pulse going against aggressive decks (especially Red Burn decks, that now have Ball Lightning and Lightning Bolt), so this may be the biggest weapon that control decks get against rush decks come January of 2010.

3) People speak of power creep in Magic, but this is only partially true: Creatures and single-targeted removal are going up in Power level (see: Baneslayer Angel, Terminate, Doom Blade, Lightning Bolt, and friends), but Countermagic and Mass-Removal spells are on the decline. One joke I've made - Wizards is determined to get the power-level of single-target removal and creatures to the point where Tarmogoyf is a fair card to reprint. While I don't think that's fully true, we might be moving in that direction. These keep each other in check; Wizards finds that people don't like it when they are prevented from doing something (bounce, Land Destruction, Countermagic), but are more "okay" with being able to play a creature, and then having it killed (Terror), because at least they got that creature onto the board (especially if it has a Comes-Into-Play effect). Hallowed Burial looks like a good card to pick up right now, because it's probably the best board sweeper spell still left in Standard. I wouldn't hold my breath for a good Wrath variant in Zendikar - I think we're looking at efficient weenie-sweepers in general (Firespout, Volcanic Fallout), and higher-priced Wrath variants (Planar Cleansing) as the rule.

Next week, I'll be co-writing the second Forsythee Awards with Evan Erwin for the Magic Show, and you'll see my thoughts about the M10 rules changes in that article. Until then, go to the M10 Prerelease, buy some M10 boxes sooner rather than later, and enjoy one of the best sets ever printed by Wizards of the Coast. See you next Friday with Evan!

Ben Bleiweiss