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Pro Tour: Houston has come and gone, and we now have a somewhat firm grip on the current Extended environment. I must say I'm surprised - but then, no one expected me to predict the Extended metagame correctly either.
I did, however, predict it much better than Ben Bleiweiss did.
Yes, folks, the outcome of the Ben Bleiweiss Challenge is this: I won. Big. Out of the cards I predicted would not see play in Houston, two did: One sideboarded copy of Ancestor's Chosen, and four copies of Nomads en-Kor between maindeck and sideboard. So let's get my obligation out of the way first.
Why was Ancestor's Chosen played in Houston? Well, basically, I either underestimated the importance of Oath of Druids, or forgot about it altogether. I'm not sure. But I suppose that, against some decks, a 4/4 with first strike that gains you a bunch of life when it comes into play (provided Oath hits it late) can be really good. There are plenty of creatures that I'd rather play in Oath, though, and apparently I'm not the only one. Scott Lipp, the one player brave enough to wield Ancestor's Chosen, finished 159th - whereas the tournament was won by a player packing Cognivore in his Oath deck.
(Just in case Scott is reading: I'm not belittling your performance, 159th out of 351 players isn't bad at this level of competition, and I definitely couldn't have done it, had I managed to qualify. Which I didn't.)
Why was Nomads en-Kor played in Houston? Same as with Oath; I didn't give the Life deck due credit. Or maybe I did, as the deck's sole player finished 337th (again, I'm not deriding the talent behind this). Being a part of an arbitrarily long combo is obviously a merit, but I didn't think anyone would try this. So sue me.
Lest this article become too short for the Fur-Covered Overlord to post it, I'll cough up explanations for the"close calls" I listed that were played as well. Not that there were many of them.
Spirit Cairn: One maindeck copy. It was played by Jordan Berkowitz (finishing 101st) in his Solitary Confinement deck, using Squee, Goblin Nabob to create the lock. I have to admit being unable to ascertain this deck's win condition (apart from, obviously, decking your opponent through simply not drawing due to Solitary Confinement) and am therefore having trouble analyzing it, but I suppose Spirit Cairn is there as an alternate win condition (or maybe the primary one... I'm a bit confused on this point). The deck also contains Compulsion, Forbid, and Masticore (in the sideboard), all of which make Spirit Cairn better.
Phantom Nishoba: My big boo-boo, and the one card on my lists that I thought was most likely to appear in Houston. There were 94 copies played between maindecks and sideboards. A 7/7 Phantom with trample and spirit link is obviously a great creature to reanimate or bring out via Oath of Druids, so I have no excuse on this one. I just missed it, 'sall.
Oh, and you people who e-mailed me saying that Flickering Ward or whatever would be played, here's my response: Toldja.
Now, on to Ben's part. I was going to go through the decklists from Houston and listing all the cards that Ben were wrong about - but luckily, I didn't have to, as David Kadonsky came through for me, doing all my dirty work and sending the results to me. Dave, if you're ever in my neck of the woods, come over and I'll buy you a brew.
David admits that there might be errors in his list (and indeed, there was at least one, which I caught and corrected), which is posted on StarCity's boards. Here is my corrected version (might still contain errors, but it's at least one line better than the original one:
4. ONSLAUGHT CARD #1 - Akroma's Blessing
5. ONSLAUGHT CARD #2 - Akroma's Vengeance
6. Allay
8. Ancestral Tribute
9. Angel of Mercy
11. Arrest
12. Aura Blast
14. "Balancing Act
15. Battle Screech
16. Benevolent Bodyguard
17. Blinding Angel
18. Cataclysm
19. Chastise
20. Cho-Manno, Revolutionary
21. Cho-Manno's Blessing
22. Circle of Protection: Black
23. Circle of Protection: Blue
24. Circle of Protection: Green
26. Circle of Protection: White
27. Clear
28. Commander Eesha
30. Defender En-Vec
33. Devoted Caretaker
34. Devout Witness
37. Divine Sacrament
39. Erase
40. ONSLAUGHT CARD #3 - Exalted Angel
41. Exile
43. Flickering Ward
44. Fresh Volunteers
45. Gerrard's Battle Cry
46. Gerrard's Wisdom
47. Global Ruin
48. Glorious Anthem
49. Glory
50. Golden Wish
51. Hobble
53. Humility
54. Intrepid Hero
56. ONSLAUGHT CARD #4 - Jareth Leonine Titan
57. Jeweled Spirit
58. "Jhovall Queen
59. Karmic Guide
60. Lashknife Barrier
62. Lawbringer
67. Mageta the Lion
70. Morningtide
74. ONSLAUGHT CARD #6 - Nova Cleric
75. ONSLAUGHT CARD #7 - Oblation
76. Opalescence
77. Order of the Sacred Torch
78. Orim, Samite Healer
80. Orim's Prayer
81. Orim's Thunder
84. Pariah
85. Pegasus Stampede
86. Phantom Nomad
87. Pianna, Nomad Captain
88. Pilgrim of Justice
89. Planar Birth
91. Pure Reflection
92. Pursuit of Knowledge
96. Rapelling Scouts
97. Renounce
98. Reverent Mantra
99. Rout
100. Rune of Protection: Black
101. Rune of Protection: Blue
102. Rune of Protection: Green
103. Rune of Protection: Red
104. Rune of Protection: White
105. Sacred Ground
106. Sacred Guide
107. Samite Ministrations
111. Serra Angel
112. Serra Avatar
114. ONSLAUGHT CARD #8 Shared Triumph/Sigil of a New Dawn? Either way...
116. Soltari Crusader
118. Soltari Priest
119. Soltari Visionary
122. Spiritual Focus
123. Spurnmage Advocate
124. Staunch Defenders
125. Steadfast Guard
126. Stern Judge
127. Story Circle
128. Sunscape Familiar
129. Suntail Hawk
131. Test of Endurance
134. ONSLAUGHT CARD #9 - True Believer
135. Vengeful Dreams
136. Voice of All
137. Warmth
139. Wave of Reckoning
140. Waylay
143. Wishmonger
148. Anurid Brushhopper
149. Armadillo Cloak
150. Aura Mutation
151. Captain Sisay
152. Charging Troll
153. Crystalline Sliver
154. Death Grasp
155. Dromar, The Banisher
156. Dromar's Charm
158. Fleetfoot Panther
160. Gerrard's Verdict
161. Goblin Legionnaires
162. Goblin Trenches
163. Hunting Grounds
164. Lightning Angel
165. Llanowar Knight
167. Mirari's Wake
168. Mystic Enforcer
169. Noble Panther
170. Overgrown Estate
172. Questing Phelddagrif
173. Reviving Vapors
175. Sabertooth Nishoba
176. Sliver Queen
180. Victual Sliver
181. Wax/Wane
There are 122 cards in this list. That translates to 12,200 words for Ben to write. Let's give him a big hand of encouragement, shall we?
E-mail address provided below; please flame liberally.
Patrik Linell
pls@claymore.nu
