At the first of the two qualifiers at Star City this weekend, I left discussing luck versus skill with a couple other players - and as I headed to my car, I heard the ubiquitous "Better lucky than good!" yelled at me from across the parking lot.

It's a good, well-used cliché - but is it accurate?

I'm not really trying to restart the luck versus skills argument that has gone before this (many times), but I suspect that I will nonetheless. Personally, I think the luck and skills aspect are so well mixed as to be a virtual 50/50 split - but I understand the arguments that range from 10/90 to 90/10.

I suspect that most people do not consider all the potential "luck" aspects of the game, however - there are other elements of luck beyond what Sealed deck you crack, or whether you draw too much or not enough lands, or even whether you draw one of your x answers for your opponent's bomb. For example there is who you get chosen to play and there is what deck you get to face. Get paired with the pro who needs to re-qualify, and your skills likely won't be enough; your luck is already bad.

To take a look at both aspects of the game, it is time for me to write about "A Tale of Two PTQs," a.k.a. "It was a far worse thing I have done than I have ever done before."

Saturday in Rockville I open and register a deck that is average, then get a deck without bombs, but which is quite solid. I felt lucky at the time. I notice a player a few seats down who is visibly excited and hear a couple comments like "Bane" and "Overrun on a stick!" but don't pay that much attention.

Guess who my first round opponent is? Didn't guess that it the bombalicious dude? Guess again.

It turns out he is playing a three color B-52, B-2, and F-117 all wrapped into one. Not only does he have Bane of the Living and Kamahl, Fist of Krosa, but he also has Starstorm, Cruel Revival, and a variety of red removal. To say I didn't have much of a chance is quite accurate, though I do recall dealing with two of the three bombs each game.

My first-round opponent also kept a one-land hand the second game; don't ask me why. But I can tell you he had two of each color in play by turn seven and proceeded to wreck me. Lucky both in love and cards, no?

I should note that we have all seen decks like that over the years, and often they don't end up at the top. The guy piloting this ship went into the Top Eight on both the strength of his deck and his piloting of it, I'm certain.

On to round two, where my deck performed as I'd hoped it would, and I won the first game... Then it died to mana screw, as I kept a two-land hand with one of each color, but didn't hit land drop three until the fifth turn and drop four until the sixth turn. The environment isn't all that fast, but it is all that unforgiving, so I lost that game.

Then came game 3, where we've seen most of each other's decks and I got wrecked by Starstorm. This is an issue both of luck and skill. I wasn't prepared for the card, but facing two in two matches (especially when the second one also lost the first match) is a trifle unlucky, I think. Thus was the first sail onto the ocean of qualifiers wrecked - mostly upon the reef of bad luck, but a little bit on the reef of bad play as well. And so I did appreciate hearing the "Better lucky than good!" intended as a form of commiseration as I walked to my car.

So I drove to Roanoke, where I stayed the night awaiting my chance at clear sailing the next day. In retrospect, I believe I got that chance but screwed the pooch. First, there were only thirty-four players, so all I needed to do was win four matches to draw into the Top Eight - not all that hard if you get a decent deck. Oh, and also if you can manage to make the right deck out of the cards you got.

I didn't manage to do that, despite getting a bomb.

The main reason I wasn't planning to write this article was not because it was such a bad weekend. No, it's much easier to learn from bad weekends than mostly good ones. It was because I would have to include a card set and allow readers to play the "Let me see if I can make it better" game, which past experience indicates that most of you don't want to do.

But then Cory Braiterman wrote about how someone named Jim was a hopeless player who kept making hopeless decks. The implication of that article (to me anyway) is that skills rule and luck isn't so important. I disagreed with that prospect a bit, and then I seriously disagreed with Cory's build of Jim's cards as well. And the creative muse fired me up to write my own (tragic?) story.

First, let me deal with Cory's article. Number one, he is absolutely correct about Jim's selection of cards; if he can't do any better than that, he's always going to be some other player's "lucky" first round matchup. But I have to take issue with Cory's build.

In Cory's article, the green was unplayable and the blue virtually so. Red was the best of the rest, but you couldn't make a full deck out of it and black, which was also good, so you needed to splash white as well. Cory ran eight black cards, seven red cards, and seven white cards - a balanced approach, which some (including me) consider the easiest way to cultivate mana problems.

And along the way, he left Sparksmith and Wave of Indifference out of red.

Granted there was only one other playable goblin, but Sparksmith is still a player in any deck with enough red. And he played Astral Slide with only four cyclers, two of which were white lands, leaving out Renewed Faith as he did so. Huh?

Then he decided to play Daru Lancer - a double white-casting critter in a deck with five white producers, two of which need to be used as cyclers. Finally, he left out Spined Basher, a 3/1 morpher for three that is also a zombie and can be protected by Boneknitter and Fallen Cleric (in a deck with two Daunting Defenders to make it better) from black.

And then there's Headhunter. Now I admit Headhunter isn't a bomb by any means but he is a cleric and can be used with Rotlung Reanimator, or protected by Daunting Defender. And if he gets through, he brings a discard.

So if I were building the same deck, I'd add three from Sparksmith, Wave, Fallen Cleric, Headhunter and remove Slide, Daru Lancer, and Battlefield Medic. I could also argue for adding all four cards and removing Disciple of Grace as well, but he does cycle and black is pretty prevalent at the moment, so why not?

But I would only have a white splash of two Daunting Defenders and one Pacifism, all of which are good later in the game if my white mana doesn't show up early. The only downside would be that none of them cycle.

I'd actually like to play that deck and think that skill would be a major determinant, as Cory implied with his article. If you are curious as to why I keep saying that Cory implied skill is the most important determinant, well, umm, er, it's because he said the deck he built "could easily win four matches just upon lucky rips." Personally, if luck is going to be involved in his deck's results, my guess would be that it would be bad luck in the form of landscrew.

Now it's time for the second of two PTQs and how I managed to take a pretty dang good sealed deck and turn it into yet another out the door, look at it in hindsight deck. Get ready for a good laugh, Cory. In my defense, allow me to say that Jim came down there armed and forced me to make this deck at the point of a gun. First, the card pool:

White (13 cards)
Aven Redeemer
Battlefield Medic
Crude Rampart
Disciple of Grace
Foothill Guide
Gempalm Avenger
Glowrider
Grassland Crusader
Gustcloak Harrier
Lowland Tracker
Pacifism
Righteous Cause
Unified Strike

Blue (14 cards)
Airborne Aid
Aven Envoy
Aven Fateshaper
Crown of Ascension
Fugitive Wizard
Mistform Dreamer
Mistform Sliver
Mistform Wakecaster
Primoc Escapee
Riptide Biologist
Rummaging Wizard
Sage Aven
Sea's Claim
Wall of Deceit

Black (15 cards)
Aphetto Vulture
Cabal Slaver
2 Crypt Sliver
Festering Goblin
Goblin Turncoat
Skinthinner
Grinning Demon
Shepherd of Rot
Smokespew Invoker
Spined Basher
Swat
Syphon Mind
Syphon Soul (Why do I ALWAYS get the Syphon exacta?)
Vile Deacon

Red (17 cards)
Bloodstroke Howler
Crested Craghorn
Erratic Explosion
Gempalm Incinerator
Goblin Firebug
Goblin Lookout
Goblin Sky Raider
Goblin Sledder
Goblin Taskmaster
Insurrection (The Bomb)
Lay Waste
Nosy Goblin
Rockshard Elemental
Skirk Commando
Skirk Marauder
Skittish Valesk
Thunder of Hooves

Green (15 cards)
Berserk Murlodont
Canopy Crawler
Centaur Glade
Chain of Acid
Crown of Vigor
Elvish Pathcutter
Elvish Pioneer
Elvish Warrior
Enormous Baloth
Glowering Rogon
Hundroog (Hundroog! - The Ferrett)
Patron of the Wild
Snarling Undorak
Timberwatch Elf
Vitality Charm

Land (1)
Polluted Delta

Wow; good cards in every color and a red bomb (Insurrection) along with solid red removal and cards. I focused quickly on red but - and this was my first mistake - I was distracted trying to play in blue and white for the solid flyers and then, in my second mistake, ran to black as time was quickly running out. I did notice Centaur Glade. Patron of the Wild, Snarling Undorak, Elvish Warrior, Vitality Charm, and some decent fat, but seriously undervalued Timberwatch Elf, Canopy Crawler (I thought Amplify was a terrible mechanic, but I forgot that most beasts cost more than the Crawler), and Berserk Murlodont (on the grounds that it allows all beasts the ability). Mistakes number three, four, five and ultimately six, as I did not play green.

I decided to take the B/R beatdown"kill your stuff" approach, and rely on Insurrection (and maybe Aphetto Vulture) to win long-lasting games where I couldn't get enough damage through. Some other win condition, like the common Wave of Indifference or Dirge of Dread might have made the deck more effective than it was as I constructed it:

RED:
Crested Craghorn
Erratic Explosion (Not real good with a lot of one and two-drops, but still useful)

Goblin Lookout (Mistake #6; it'd be okay if it didn't have to tap)
Goblin Sledder
Goblin Taskmaster
Insurrection
Lay Waste
Nosy Goblin
Rockshard Elemental
Skirk Commando
Skirk Marauder
Skittish Valesk

BLACK:
Aphetto Vulture
Cabal Slaver
Crypt Sliver (Took one out since they don't beat; mistake #6 swap with Goblin Lookout)
Festering Goblin
Goblin Turncoat
Grinning Demon
Shepherd of Rot
Skinthinner
Smokespew Invoker
Spined Basher
Swat
Vile Deacon

LAND
9 Mountain
8 Swamp

Mistake #7 was playing 41 cards; something I always do as habit.
Mistake #8 was probably not taking out Lay Waste, Nosy Goblin and a mountain and playing the Polluted Delta, an island, and Aven Fateshaper.

So I lost one chance mostly to luck and another mostly to a lack of skill. The deck I should have built - the deck I built at home and have test-drawn 30-40 times - is this:

Red
Bloodstoke Howler
Crested Craghorn
Erratic Explosion (works much better in this deck)
Gempalm Incinerator
Goblin Sledder
Goblin Taskmaster
Insurrection
Rockshard Elemental
Skittish Valesk
Skirk Commando
Skirk Marauder

Green
Berserk Murlodont
Canopy Crawler
Centaur Glade
Elvish Warrior
Enormous Baloth
Glowering Rogon
Hundroog (Hundroog! - The Ferrett)
Patron of the Wild
Snarling Undorak
Timberwatch Elf
Vitality Charm

Then mix and match nine mountains, nine forests, and you're good to go. For those who don't want to play eighteen or those who like playing forty-one cards, add one of these sideboard cards: Chain of Acid, Lay Waste, or Thunder of Hooves.

True the deck is weak against flying and has no mana accelerators, but it has a lot of beasts and fatties and burn and early drops. I think even I could have made it into the top eight had I constructed the deck that way - instead of doing it Jim's way.

Of course, there was still an element of luck involved. My first opponent did have Visara in his deck and got it out regularly against me. I lost, but got one funny story as he kept it back to protect against haste and burn (he was at six life). I finally drew Insurrection and got to make mistake #10,056 by playing it with only one creature in hand. Since he wasn't attacking, I needed to wait until I could drop a few the next turn, or until he put out a few creatures to try and knock me down from near-twenty life.

But the Visara on the table with the Sledder called to me, and so I cast Insurrection. He sacrificed the Sledder and I had Visara kill herself, then played Demon the next turn after he played out two little dudes. I blocked and had to unmorph it to save it from the 1/1 and a Sparksmith - mistake number too many to count - and started taking two a turn one turn early. Ultimately, I died the turn before he would activate a Flamewave Invoker to the face at my end of turn and Searing flesh to the head on his for precisely the right damage. Taking that two damage (instead of just one) cost me the game just as much as the luck of facing Visara.

So my conclusion is? That luck and skill are both significant players in this game and, frankly, I'd rather be lucky and good. But for me personally, I'd settle for either.

Mike La Beau
grayponytail@hotmail.com