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Positive EV – Discussing Draft Reloaded #1: The Shards

Read Manuel Bucher every week... at StarCityGames.com!
Tuesday, June 30th – In a continuation from their previous series on Shards of Alara Limited, Manuel Bucher and Olivier Ruel team up to discuss the Ups and Downs in card evaluations now the format is well established. Today, they discuss each of the five Shards, sharing their highs and lows in their familiar candid conversational style!

Today, Oli and I are working together again. This time we reload the Alara Limited series.

Manu: Hi everybody. It’s time for the Alara Limited article series reloaded. For Shards of Alara and Conflux, Oli and I are only talking about the ups and downs in every archetype, and we won’t be posting a Top20/15 on those. After one article on the five Shards, and one on Five-Color Control and Two-Coloured Aggro Decks, we will continue with the Top 15 lists for Alara Reborn in every archetype, spit up in two articles.
Oli: Hey!

Esper

Oli:

Up:
Arcane Sanctum
Esperzoa
Vedalken Outlander
Zombie Outlander
Sedraxis Alchemist

Down:
Executioner’s Capsule
Infest
Courier’s Capsule
Sludge Strider
Rupture Spire
Puppet Conjurer
Etherium Astrolabe

Manu:

Up:
Arcane Sanctum
Agony Warp
Esper Battlemage
Kathari Screecher
Tidehollow Strix
Tower Gargoyle
Parasitic Strix
Sedraxis Alchemist
Unsummon
Zombie Outlander

Down:
Courier’s Capsule
Executioner’s Capsule
Metallurgeon
Oblivion Ring
Armillary Sphere
Drag Down
Faerie Mechanist
Rupture Spire
Sludge Strider

Manu: For me, both removal and synergy lost value with Alara Reborn. This is the reason most curve and power creatures go higher in value, while removal, synergy and slow fixers go down.
Oli: I agree with that, but it’s not the only reason why I put removal spells in the Down list. The thing is, the archetype is now very often UW dominant, making Black spells worse in general. When it takes one turn to deal with a creature using an Oblivion Ring, it often takes two using the Executioner’s Capsule. Also, because, as you said, the curve is so important, you don’t want to waste your turn 2 fetching or land cycling. This is why I like Arcane Sanctum even more than before.
Manu: I even have Oblivion Ring in the Down list. The decks usually just have less synergy which you have to break up, and a lot of bombs have become slow, so you can beat them with tempo cards.
Oli: And I forgot about the Capsules… Another reason why they are in the Down list is because you only have eight packs to find Sanctum Gargoyle.
Manu: And I’d rather play guys than draw extra cards (this is not a fake comment, I swear!)
Oli: I totally agree with that now. The format is just a lot faster. When so many games are done between turn 6 and turn 8, you don’t want to waste two turns in gaining a single “unit” of card advantage. However, I can’t agree with Oblivion Ring being in the Down list. I agree the fact the format gets faster means removal spells are less important. After all, you want to act rather than react, and your opponent has less time and therefore less mana to play a bomb. But as tempo is so important, it doesn’t matter that much that you don’t always kill a great guy. Three mana to deal with your opponent’s best guy with a spell from your main color is excellent, as far as tempo and quality is concerned.
Manu: I mean, I still pick the card very highly. I just think that I would pick an Esper Battlemage over it. You can always cast it on turn 3, and it is both pressure and disruption.
Oli: It makes sense, even though you don’t always know what you’re on when you get them passed. A pack that has Esper Battlemage and Oblivion Ring should not exist after picks two or three. And by then you don’t always know if you’re in Esper yet. If I don’t know for sure, I’ll pick Oblivion Ring.
Manu: Okay, I pick Oblivion Ring over Esper Battlemage in the first two picks. But when I know that I’m in Esper by pick 3, I’d pick the Battlemage!
Oli: Okay! Glad we agree!
Manu: One last thing. What’s your order on Faerie Mechanist, Parasitic Strix, and Sedraxis Alchemist?
Oli: Depends on my mana at that moment. Alchemist is the best card, but if I’m low on Black it’s the last I’ll pick from that list. Concerning the other two, even though I agree Mechanist got a little worse, and Strix a little better, I think I still like Mechanist a bit more in general. However, if my deck uses much Black, or if I already have many spells costing four and higher, I’ll go with the Strix.
Manu: Grixis?
Oli: Yup, but I’ve a feeling my list won’t be very long…

Grixis

Oli:

Up:
Blister Beetle
Infest
Magma Spray
Fire-Field Ogre
Ignite Disorder
Volcanic Fallout
Goblin Outlander
Zombie Outlander
Kederekt Creeper

Down:
Corpse Connoisseur
Bone Splinters
Fiery Fall

Manu:

Up:
Dark Temper
Ignite Disorder
Suicidal Charge
Magma Spray
Kederekt Creeper

Down:
Blightning
Bone Splinters
Courier’s Capsule
Corpse Connoisseur
Fleshbag Marauder

Manu: My memories don’t trick me… Magma Spray couldn’t really go down in your list.
Oli: Hehe, true, but now that the format becomes fast and the creatures more and more numerous in every deck, early removal spells get a lot better. That’s also the reason why I’ve Fallout and Infest in the Up list.
Manu: Well, again, Fallout and Infest can’t really go up in my list.
Oli: They were pretty high in our standings, but I think they can aim for first place now.: Ignite Disorder is obviously up because there are so many gold cards now that it’s a card you can easily play main deck. It is also the reason why I’ve the Outlanders in my Up list.
Manu: True. For me, Grixis became my favorite control option. It’s the deck where Executioner’s Capsule is still a very good card, and as Suicidal Charge got a lot better (in my opinion), you gain a common mass removal option.
Oli: True, Suicidal Charge is not that sideboard card you board in against one deck at the table anymore; it can definitely be used in the main. Marauders, Connoisseur, and Splinters are obviously in the Down list because Unearth is almost absent from packs two and three.
Manu: Well, what can I say? For me, Grixis is now a slow deck where removal spells really are shining. I don’t know what to say… We seem to agree about most things. Outlanders are Up for me in general. Anything left to say for you, or do you want to move to Jund?
Oli: Yes, one last thing. I think this archetype is the one that benefits the most the arrival of the land cycler guys, because it doesn’t do much on turn 2 anyway. This is the reason why we have Kederekt Creeper in our Up lists; not only are there more early guys to block, is it also easier to cast on turn 3. And this is also the reason why I’ve placed Fire-Field Ogre in the Up list.
Manu: Yep… He should be in my Up list as well. My bad.

Jund

Oli:

Up:
Branching Bolt
Topan Ascetic
Magma Spray
Ember Weaver
Ignite Disorder
Goblin Outlander
Vithian Stinger

Down:
Corpse Connoisseur
Bone Splinters
Executioner’s Capsule

Manu:

Up:
Branching Bolt
Jund Charm
Magma Spray
Ember Weaver
Ignite Disorder
Suicidal Charge

Down:
Bone Splinters
Resounding Thunder
Blightning
Executioner’s Capsule

Oli: I agree that Thunder got worse, as you can’t cycle it as often, but it is still a card I like a lot.
Manu: Again, most of the Downs make sense. I am interested why I can find Topan Ascetic and Vithian Stinger in your Ups. Topan Ascetic is not a hero in fighting Blades without an earlier drop. And Vithian Stinger is kind of slow, while not having a real fighting body. Why isn’t Blood Cultist in your Ups?
Oli: At first because now Green is always my main color when I play Jund. Then Jund is, with Grixis, the archetype which needs to draw his three colors fast, to be able to compete with the opponent. Topan Ascetic is one of these few early drops which can handle with an opponent’s good draw while you still don’t have the mana you need. Concerning the Stinger, it’s not really that it got better. Indeed, it’s more that our last discussions in our columns concerning this opened my eyes on that card, as I had clearly been undervaluing it.
Manu: I want to say a word about Ember Weaver. For me, this is one of the MVPs for Jund. With a Borderpost, it often has First Strike on turn 3, without having to fear they have a removal spell for the Red guy. And it stops all the early drops.
Oli: I totally agree. Now the archetype has several of the best creatures in the format, as Putrid Leech and Ember Weaver join Wild Leotau.
Manu: Don’t forget about Broodmate Dragon.
Oli: True. About that, I’d love to tell about my turn 4 Madrush Cyclops turn 6 Broodmate attack for 8 in Sealed last week, if that was not so out of subject. I think Jund is the best archetype as far as raw strength is concerned. Its only problem is the same as it was before: it’s really hard to play a two-color base, and therefore stable, deck
Manu: The raw strength and power is probably the best in Jund. The problem is that it doesn’t have a lot of good tempo cards, and therefore those cards are really important for the archetype.

Naya

Oli:

Up:
Druid of the Anima
Exalted guys
Knight of the Skyward Eye
Qasali Ambusher

Down:
Drumhunter
6+ mana-cost guys
Fiery Fall

Manu:

Up:
Wild Nacatl
Woolly Thoctar
Sigil Blessing
Rhox Charger
Akrasan Squire
Aven Squire

Down:
Oblivion Ring
Bull Cerodon
Drumhunter
Sacellum Archers

Manu: Naya and five-color control are the decks I draft by far the rarest now (and Bant, of course). A pick 4 or 5 Woolly Thoctar is one of the few reasons for me to move into Naya. With the Borderposts, you can play it on turn 3 more often without losing your two-drop.
Oli: I don’t draft these decks anymore either. If I do, it’s usually more a WG aggro deck splashing Red (even though splashing for removal is less necessary now). This is why early drops are much better in general, while all the Cavern Thoctar, Jungle Weaver, and even the excellent Bull Cerodon are much less impressive.
Manu: Agreed. The five-power-theme is now unplayable in my opinion.
Oli: And being WG, I love Ambusher a lot more; it can kill creatures against most decks now.
Manu: I have to admit that I probably still underestimate the card, as I didn’t really like it in AAC.
Oli: If we were doing Top X again, it would probably be in my Top 10 now.
Manu: Again, Oblivion Ring is in my Down list. Nowadays I would pick both Wild Nacatl and Akrasan Squire over it.
Oli: Well, I understand your point, but once again, Ring very rarely makes it past pick 3. If I see Nacatl and Ring in the first three packs, and if I haven’t picked Red and Green cards only before, I won’t even consider picking the cat. However, Squire and Ring is a very close pick, and I think I’ll take the 1/1 as well. I mean, if I have a Green or a Red card already, and I plan on playing them, I pick the cat. Otherwise I pick the Ring because I prefer the color. Let’s say you first-pick is Rhox Charger, and you can choose between Nacatl and Ring pick two. What do you take?
Manu: I pick the cat.
Oli: I pick the Ring. I don’t really consider going Naya, nor probably Bant with only a Green pick, so I’m either WG or Jund, and even though I like the cat, I think it’s just worse in Jund than Ring is in WG. If I first-picked Naya Charm though, or first-picked Charger and second-picked Magma Spray, I’ll go for Nacatl.
Manu: I see RG as a viable archetype, and I want to give myself that option even though I rarely end up in it. Ring and Nacatl are very close for me in WG.
Oli: While Ring is not playable in Jund, it makes sense. Anything you’d like to add on Naya, or shall we move to the less fascinating Bant?
Manu: Bant it is!
Oli: Actually, one last thing concerning Naya
Manu: What’s on your mind?
Oli: Sacellum Archers is in your Down list, when it almost makes it to my Up list. It actually kills guys now!
Manu: I don’t want to leave mana open, while it doesn’t stop guys anymore with its simple 2/3 body. For me, a three-drop has to be able to fight with Blades or have a good ability now. I don’t consider the ability to be very good, even though it could deal with Blades. But that means the 2/3 doesn’t attack, and you can’t play a four- or five-drop. Does that make any sense?
Oli: In the old school five-power Naya deck, it would still be pretty bad, but now that its curve should be a lot lower, you can often play a spell and keep two mana open. Also, it can trade in a fight with three Blades out of five, and use its ability on four, which is actually more than okay. If you have a high curve, though, it’s pretty bad indeed.
Manu: I’ll give it one more try. Again, I didn’t draft a lot of Naya and just thought that it got worse.
Oli: Same here, but when I faced it I found it actually really annoying.

Bant

Oli:

Up:
Qasali Ambusher
Gleam of Resistance

Down:
Resounding Silence
Traumatic Vision

Manu:

Up:
Aven Squire
Akrasan Squire
Gleam of Resistance
Rhox War Monk (yes, I said it!)

Down:
Resounding Silence
Bant Charm
Algae Gharial

Oli: I know that’s quite a short list, but the thing is this archetype was already based on early drops and evasive guys, so it doesn’t change much.
Manu: I think Rhox War Monk is actually good now, because it has an impact on the board when you cast it. Anything left to say? Hehe!
Oli: I think it always did, but it is one of the cards (just like Fire-Field Ogre) that benefits from the rarity of the removal spells. Gleam gets better now that there are more guys on the table in general, while Resounding Silence and Traumatic Visions are just too slow.
Manu: And I think Algae Gharial gets a little worse for the very same reason.
Oli: Well, it is Bant we’re talking about… Haven’t we wasted enough time on it already? It does have great cards, but UW and WG are just much more reliable archetypes, and we’ll get to that on Friday.

Manu: Thanks for reading, everybody! Questions and comments are always welcome in the forums. Tune in on Friday for more!
Oli: And thanks for your time, Manu. It’s always a pleasure!
Manu: I have to thank you! I always learn a lot.

Manu and Oli