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The time right before a set is released is always a little bit awkward for writers. By this time, everyone knows about all the new cards (assuming they don’t have a problem perusing any spoilers), and therefore all of the interest is focused on the new cards and what impact they will have. Of course, doing a set review is always an option, and that was my initial plan. However, after reading Patrick’s article from yesterday, that seemed quite unnecessary, as he did an excellent job of covering just about all the cards I would be interested in talking about. There are still a couple of notes I would like to add, but not nearly enough to make a full article.

First, one cute interaction GerryT pointed out is that Ranger of Eos can go fetch Scattershot Archer. That might not be groundbreaking, but any additional value off Ranger is always nice. It doesn’t take much to make Ranger of Eos excellent, as can be seen by his widespread Constructed usage, and another good utility target just makes him that much better.

Second, one card that interests me is Mark of Asylum. It looks like just another situational White enchantment that is designed for casual Inferno decks or the like, but what it actually reminds me of is Absolute Law. Against decks with excessive amounts of damage-based creature removal, Mark of Asylum should do quite nicely in protecting your army. It might even fit quite nicely into Faeries, especially if people are relying on Volcanic Fallout, Jund Charm, Scattershot Archer, and Cloudthresher, which seems pretty likely.

So if I were to finish my Conflux reviews without repeating anything Patrick already said, I would be stopping now. This leads me back to the awkward part, where any deck I could write about would be outdated without Conflux cards. I normally really don’t like writing about decks I haven’t actually played myself, and in fact that was my number one complaint about writers before I began writing myself. However, circumstances being what they are, I will do a little more theoretical musing than I normally do, and even speculate on possible decks without any actual testing! I don’t mean to say that nobody should write about decks they haven’t played, since good and bad ideas alike are worth discussing, and it isn’t realistic to test every deck one would like to write about. I just never really feel that comfortable making statements with any sort of authority without actual testing, so I try to avoid doing such.

Preachy spiel aside, let’s look at an update to a pretty reasonable archetype that existed before Conflux, Black/Red Blightning! A number of the cards that pop out at me when I look at the Conflux spoiler look like they will fit very well into a sort of midrange/aggressive Black/Red deck. My only loss in the Standard portion of Worlds was to Tsuyoshi Ikeda’s more controllish version of Black/Red, but the deck can be built in a number of ways.

The cards that seem like they could fit well in a Black/Red shell are:

Banefire - This card seems nothing but excellent, and I expect to see it in all sorts of decks.

Nyxathid – I don’t know if just Blightning is enough discard to fuel this beast, but it looks large enough that not a whole lot of help is needed. After all, your opponent does need to cast spells in order to survive anyway.

Goblin Outlander – Spectral Procession and co. are seeing so much play right now that it is worth considering this guy as the two-drop of choice. He even walks right by Kitchen Finks and Rhox War Monk out of Five-Color Control, as well as being immune to Path of Exile and Condemn (not that a 2/2 is often the preferred target there).

Shambling Remains – Much like Patrick said, this guy seems like a legitimate contender to the slot currently occupied by Boggart Ram-Gang or Ashenmoor Gouger. Coming in for a second hit and being a little easier to cast both seem better than the fourth point of toughness or haste.

So those are the potentials. Let’s look at what sort of lists we have to work with, taken from top performing lists at Worlds. I would like to take a look at a few of these lists and see how the cards from Conflux might fit in, since there are certainly different ways to make BR.

On one hand, we have the more aggressive version that Masaya Kitayama played:

4 Boggart Ram-Gang
4 Demigod of Revenge
4 Figure of Destiny
4 Mogg Fanatic
4 Vexing Shusher
4 Flame Javelin
4 Incinerate
4 Tarfire
4 Blightning
4 Auntie's Hovel
4 Ghitu Encampment
4 Graven Cairns
7 Mountain
2 Reflecting Pool
3 Sulfurous Springs

I definitely think we can do better than Vexing Shusher and Boggart Ram-Gang by replacing them with Goblin Outlander and Shambling Remains. Maindeck Shusher seems overly narrow, with Goblin Outlander having utility against more of the field.

The other card I definitely want to fit in is Banefire, but that won’t be accomplished with just a simple switch. The weakest card left seems to be Tarfire, especially since the full amount of Fanatics will often serve the same purpose. I would cut three of the Tarfires for two Banefire and another Reflecting Pool, since once we have two x-spells and four Demigods, trying to get by on twenty four lands seems a bit greedy.

This list isn’t my favorite, as it neglects to run Bitterblossom. Leaving out Blossom seems pretty bad, since it really is just the best card in Standard. One could easily fit in Bitterblossom and still run the list, but I am not sure why Blossom wasn’t in to begin with.

The next list was piloted by Ervin Tormos himself:

4 Boggart Ram-Gang
4 Figure of Destiny
4 Siege-Gang Commander
4 Flame Javelin
4 Incinerate
4 Magma Spray
4 Blightning
3 Profane Command
4 Bitterblossom
4 Auntie's Hovel
4 Ghitu Encampment
4 Graven Cairns
6 Mountain
3 Reflecting Pool
4 Sulfurous Springs

I like the way this looks, playing the full set of Bitterblossoms and upgrading Tarfire to the superior (presumably) Magma Spray. The times that you want to hit a persist guy or lessen the number of targets Reveillark has outweigh the times you want to nug them for two with Tarfire. You can reveal Tarfire to play Auntie’s Hovel untapped, but that seems to be small consolation.

Banefire fits quite well here, turning Profane Command from a liability against Faeries to an insane finisher. Normally, resolving Profane Command is almost impossible, as it easily gets countered by Cryptic Command or Broken Ambitions, although usually dodges Spellstutter. That is really unfortunate, since Profane is often all you need to finish them off, so having your finisher be easily dealt with is pretty bad. Once you get Banefire, the dynamic of the matchup changes tremendously, since now they have to account for the fact that once their life total gets near the number of lands you have they could be dead at any second. This not only has the effect of, well, killing them with Banefire, which is nice, but even changing how they have to play. Instead of waiting to get enough tokens to trade with a 2/2 or 3/3 of yours, your opponent has to minimize the damage they take, leading to them making trades favorable for you in order to take less damage.

Besides adding Banefires, the next step I would take is to try Shambling Remains over the Ram-Gangs, for the reasons I stated above. One additional point in the Remains’ favor is their immunity to Terror. I expect Black/White Tokens to play the full amount of Terrors, and having your three-drop Terrored is always unfortunate. Without Ram-Gang, the only good Terror target you have left is Figure of Destiny, but most of the time that will be mana parity rather than giving them the advantage.

So while I think both decks above are definitely improved by the additions of Banefire, Shambling Remains, and Goblin Outlander, I would be remiss if I didn’t provide at least some speculation about a more original list. Swapping out two or three cards isn’t that revolutionary, so I will try and put together a list from scratch here.

4 Figure of Destiny
4 Mogg Fanatic
4 Shambling Remains
4 Demigod of Revenge

4 Bitterblossom
4 Blightning
4 Incinerate
4 Flame Javelin
3 Banefire

4 Ghitu Encampment
4 Sulfurous Springs
4 Graven Cairns
4 Auntie’s Hovel
6 Mountain
3 Reflecting Pool

This of course ends up looking much like the other BR decks, but the idea here is that you blank most creature removal. The only non-burn spell in the deck is really Figure of Destiny, as normal removal does very little against Demigod of Revenge, Shambling Remains, Bitterblossom, and Mogg Fanatic. Your goal is really to get the opponent to the point where a reasonably sized Banefire will end them, and that should be pretty doable. It is unfortunate that Mutavault can’t fit in, but Demigod of Revenge is a harsh master.

I didn’t find a place for Nyxathid, but I still think it should find its place somewhere. It might be better served as sideboard material, since it seems particularly brutal against aggro decks that both tend to empty their hand and have more trouble dealing with a 5/5 or so. One of the main problems I have with Nyxathid is that its best enabler might be Raven’s Crime, which has terrible synergy with Banefire. When it comes down to which card I would rather support, I choose Banefire by a mile.

Against Faeries, you have seven hard-to-counter spells in Demigod of Revenge (if you draw two) and the Banefires, as well as the requisite early pressure. Granted, Faeries was already a decent matchup for Blightning Aggro, but now with Banefires it seems quite good.

Five-Color Control can be built in so many different ways that it is tough to speculate on the matchup, but your almost complete lack of removal targets should serve you well. Basically, all your spells will deal damage in one way or another, and again Banefire is pretty nice against control decks that rely on counterspells.

The matchups that do seem a little tough game 1 are Black/White Tokens and Red/White Boat Brew, since Spectral Procession and such can be difficult to deal with. With tokens and Reveillarks churning out guys, it might be difficult to get any solid hits in. It is certainly possible to burn them out, especially since Burrenton Forge-Tender can’t stop Banefire from ending things.

One of the things I like about Black/Red is how easily customizable it is, since there are many distinct ways to approach building it. Access to cards like Infest, Vithian Stinger, Siege-Gang Commander, Volcanic Fallout allow you to take the control role if needed. When I lost to Ikeda at Worlds, he sided into Infests and Vithian Stingers, which made him into the control deck. It worked, and he had enough removal to keep me off any sort of sizeable force long enough for his Siege-Gang to kill me. Even the burn-centric list I proposed above can be transformed after sideboarding into a controllish deck once you know what threats you have to deal with.

An example of such a sideboard would be:

4 Infest (The reason I would avoid Volcanic Fallout in this spot is Burrenton Forge-Tender, as getting your Wrath countered usually is devastating)
4 Vithian Stinger
3 Thoughtseize
3 Nyxathid
1 Loxodon Warhammer

Against BW or RW you get to bring in Infests and Vithian Stingers and shift your focus to a more defensive bent. You don’t have much for the Faeries or Five-Color Control matchup beyond Thoughtseize, since your maindeck should be pretty solid there. Nyxathid (plus the miser’s Warhammer!) are for the mirror and other Red matchups, since even a medium sized Nyxathid is pretty tough for Red to deal with. Plus, I guarantee that time after time people will go to Flame Javelin a 4/4 Nyxathid and be unpleasantly surprised when it is now a 5/5.

I imagine that Conflux will shake up Standard pretty well, since it has many powerful cards spread out amongst the current archetypes, as well as cards that might even inspire new decks. One trend I am not a huge fan of is the push towards a Five-Color Control deck, is as odd as it sounds, I don’t like the feel of Five-Color Control decks. I don’t mean the strategic value of them, since that varies of course. What I mean is that the Vivid land decks don’t have the unique identity or character that really defines different decks, and that bugs me a little. I mean, there are many ways to build Five-Color Control decks and they play out differently, but it can be hard to distinguish them from one another because so many of their basic characteristics are the same. The Vivid lands are much to blame, since instead of being limited to a few colors, the deck just plays all the best spells available. Again, this doesn’t really bother me from a tournament standpoint, as I think Five-Color Control is a fine part of the metagame and an interesting enough deck to play. I just think it is more interesting when decks have more identity than what I currently see Five-Color Control as having, since it really is just the best controlling spells available regardless of color. I’m not sure if I communicated what I mean here well enough, so I will try to clear it up in the forums if people need more clarification.

I hope this departure into the realm of untested decks went alright, since I am not always comfortable talking about subjects I don’t have direct experience in. This isn’t to say I haven’t played the Blightning deck at all, since I have, but obviously without Conflux.

Next week I will be reviewing all of the AAA drafts I have recorded in my Drafting With LSV series (which winds up this Friday, and will resume when Conflux hits MTGO), and seeing what the records I posted with each Shard. It should be interesting to see how my drafting preferences changed, and what effect that had on my win/loss percentages. I will also probably chime in on how Conflux will change the format, since I will be doing some gunslinging of my own this weekend at the big prerelease in Northern California (with GerryT as well)!

Luis

Editor’s Section - Vote For LSV… and BPM!

It’s StarCityGames.com Awards season, and time for you to make your votes heard! The two polls below contain a selection of articles by LSV and Benjamin Peebles-Mundy, who both split 2008 with some excellent material. Cast your votes before Sunday and choose your favorites… they’ll then go head-to-head with a host of other articles to determine the StarCityGames.com 2008 Article of the Year!

What was LSV's best article in 2008?

Poll closed on February 2nd, 2009 at 11:59 PM, EST.
Total votes: 334

(55.39%)	Grand Prix: Los Angeles Report and TEPS Primer
(21.86%)	Blue Faeries in Extended
(22.75%)	Blue/Red Swans in Extended

What was BPM's best article in 2008?

Poll closed on February 2nd, 2009 at 11:59 PM, EST.
Total votes: 232

(21.55%)	Extended Elves in Action
(11.64%)	Standard, Block, Limited… and Drafting With BPM
(13.79%)	Hollywood Numbers, and the Resurgence of Reveillark
(33.19%)	Tournament Preparation
(19.83%)	Playing Reveillark at the StarCityGames.com 00 Open

Thanks for your input on this, guys. Every article this week will contain a similar poll, so be sure to vote for your favorites!