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Positive EV - Elementals in Standard, Continued: The Matchups

Manuel Bucher

By Manuel Bucher
06/24/2009

About Manuel Bucher: Manuel Bucher is a Swiss pro with four Grand Prix Top 8s to his name, including a win at Grand Prix: Zurich. He's a member of the 2007 Team World Champions, and his deck designs are respected at the highest level of the game.

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I finished last week’s article with an update of my Elemental list, and this is where I will continue today. The list below is very close to the one from last week; the manabase is now adjusted to accommodate for Soul Wardens and Horde of Notions. The rarely-used main deck Shriekmaw is moved to the sideboard.

Elementals
Featured by Manuel Bucher on 2009-06-28 (Standard)
As written about in http://www.starcitygames.com/magic/standard/17658_Positive_EV_Elementals_in_Standard_Continued_The_Matchups.html
Print this deck!
Maindeck:

Artifacts
1 Springleaf Drum

Creatures
4 Bloom Tender
1 Cloudthresher
4 Flamekin Harbinger
1 Fulminator Mage
4 Incandescent Soulstoke
4 Mulldrifter
3 Ranger of Eos
4 Reveillark
4 Smokebraider
3 Soul Warden

Legendary Creatures
4 Horde of Notions


Tribal Instants
1 Nameless Inversion

Basic Lands
1 Forest
1 Island
1 Mountain
1 Plains

Lands
4 Ancient Ziggurat
1 Battlefield Forge
1 Exotic Orchard
4 Primal Beyond
4 Reflecting Pool
3 Vivid Crag
1 Vivid Meadow
Sideboard:

3 Pithing Needle
3 Burrenton Forge-Tender
2 Cloudthresher
3 Fulminator Mage
1 Shriekmaw
1 Wispmare
1 Eyes of the Wisent
1 Shields of Velis Vel



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The deck usually has two directions in which it plays out. Either you are able to resolve early big threats, like a turn 3 Ranger of Eos or Horde of Notions, and you are able to beat down your opponent fairly easily; or you are trying to stall the board, and you build up on guys so you are able to kill all your opponent’s creatures with Horde of Notions, Bloom Tender, and Nameless Inversion. While the first plan usually plays out pretty easily, the second one is very thoughtful, as you want to play around as much as possible.

With this list as a base, I will give you guys a complete metagame analysis of the current Standard format The sideboarding, as always, is only a suggestion, and should be adjusted to your opponent’s deck list and to his play style.

Black/Green Elves

They have to spend the early turns dealing with your mana-acceleration guys, as they have problems dealing with both Horde of Notions and Reveillark. As their removal costs about the same amount of mana as their critters, it is very hard for them to build up pressure while they are disrupting you. This leaves you with enough time to fully use the card advantage of Mulldrifter and Ranger of Eos, which leads to you eventually hard-cast Reveillarks and Horde of Notions. The draws that are hard to beat are the ones in which they are playing first with a turn 2 Wren’s Run Vanquisher or Putrid Leech, combined with some removal spells and Thoughtseize.

Playing first:
+3 Fulminator Mage
-1 Cloudthresher
-2 Soul Warden

Drawing first:
+2 Fulminator Mage
+1 Shriekmaw
-1 Soul Warden
-1 Cloudthresher
-1 Horde of Notions

The best card they can have against you is Puppeteer Clique. Other popular sideboard choices are Deathmark and Infest.

Green/White Tokens

This matchup is very similar to the Elves matchup. Instead of more disruption like Maelstrom Pulse and Thoughtseize, this deck has some mana acceleration and more Overrun effects. In the typical games, this deck is just a bit too slow – the only games they win are with either an early game Overrun or a midgame Overrun supported by Path to Exile. Two or three Soul Wardens usually make sure that their Overrun is not lethal, while you should fairly easily be able to build up a board where they can’t attack without an Overrun effect.

Playing first and drawing first:
+2 Fulminator Mage
-1 Cloudthresher
-1 Horde of Notions

Your opponent has very limited options. They might try the Dauntless Escort + Wrath of God plan, but that usually slows them down a lot, while you can easily recover from a Wrath if you have access to Reveillark. Sometimes you find Celestial Purge in their sideboard, which adds a small amount of disruption to their deck. Shriekmaw is usually just a bad Fulminator Mage, as you’d rather kill a land to keep them off Overrun mana than a random dude like Liege. You keep the Nameless Inversion, as there are games in which you end up killing all their guys with a Bloom Tender or two and Horde of Notions.

Black/White Tokens

Their maindeck disruption costs two mana (Zealous Persecution and Tidehollow Sculler), and most of their threats cost three or more. Like Elves, they have a problem building up enough pressure, so the disruption doesn’t really hurt you. Still, the matchup is a lot closer, as they have cards that disrupt you while building up some pressure (Tidehollow Sculler and Murderous Redcap). Soul Warden combined with Cloudthresher is a combo that wins a lot of games against an early Bitterblossom.

Playing first:
+1 Shields of Velis Vel
-1 Reveillark

Drawing first:
+1 Shields of Velis Vel
+1 Fulminator Mage
-2 Reveillark

Their sideboard usually features a mix of Thoughtseize, Wrath of God, and Celestial Purge. Against people with Wrath of God, you should keep the full amount of Reveillarks and cut some Horde of Notions instead. Fulminator Mage isn’t that good, as they tend to board out their expensive spells in favour of cheaper ones, and it can’t hold off any creature besides Tidehollow Sculler from attacking. Still, it’s a nice solution to Mutavault and Windbrisk Heights.

Jund / Five-Color Bloodbraid

Both matchups are very similar in how they play out. Their early game disruption is either limited to Jund Charm/Volcanic Fallout or Terror/Nameless Inversion and Maelstrom Pulse. They have a lot of trouble killing the mana acceleration, which leads to you being able to resolve a lot of early threats. The matchup plays out similar to Elves, but instead of early game disruption, they have some more “unfair” late-game cards. If they are not running Chameleon Colossus combined with Colossal Might, you should be a favorite in the matchup.

Playing first and drawing first:
+1 Burrenton Forge-Tender
+3 Fulminator Mage
-1 Cloudthresher
-3 Incandescent Soulstoke

Popular sideboard choices from them are Celestial Purge, Thoughtseize, Snakeform, and Infest. If they are running Volcanic Fallout and/or Jund Charm, you might want to add more Burrenton Forge-Tenders.

White/b Kithkin

This is a matchup where their disruption really hurts you. An aggressive start combined with a Zealous Persecution or Path to Exile ruins your game plan. When I played for Top 8 at GP: Sao Paolo, I barely had a chance, even though I had two excellent draws. The matchup plays out pretty simply; if they have an aggressive start supported by disruption, you probably don’t win, while if they don’t do anything in the first two turns you should be a favorite.

Against the version not splashing Black, you have a far better matchup. The card that is by far the best against you is Zealous Persecution.

Playing first and drawing first:
+1 Shriekmaw
+3 Fulminator Mage
-3 Horde of Notions
-1 Springleaf Drum

They usually don’t have a lot in the sideboard. They sometimes have a pair of Celestial Purges, or if they are not running the full set of Path to Exile main deck you can find some copies in the sideboard. You barely have time to tutor up Shields of Velis Vel, so that’s why I don’t bring it in. Fulminator Mage can block a fair amount of creatures, and can sometimes deal with Windbrisk Heights or their source of Black mana.

Cascade Swans

This is probably your worst matchup in the current metagame. You don’t have a lot of cards to disrupt their game plan – and by “not a lot of cards,” I mean that you have exactly one: Fulminator Mage. And a Stone Rain is usually not that effective against a deck running 40 lands. If you manage to stick the Horde of Notions with a Fulminator Mage and keep them off four mana, you can win the game.

On the play and on the draw:
-1 Cloudthresher
-1 Nameless Inversion -4 Incandescent Soulstoke -3 Ranger of Eos +3 Pithing Needle +3 Fulminator Mage +1 Wispmare +2 Burrenton Forge-Tender

They usually only sideboard a pair of solutions to Pithing Needle against you. I keep the Soul Warden and sideboard in a pair of Forge-Tenders in order to power up my turn 2 Bloom Tender. Again, the main game plan is to keep him off from reaching four mana, so you should mulligan very aggressively.

U/B Faeries

This matchup is very close, and really depends on their list as to whether you are a small favorite or a small dog. If they are running maindeck Puppeteer Clique and/or Peppersmoke, the matchup gets a lot harder. Luckily, their deck has a lot of trouble dealing with the mana acceleration on the draw, and you should be able to resolve some threats in the early game. Make sure that you tap your mana right in order to play around Broken Ambitions; Ancient Ziggurat and Smokebraider can’t pay for the Ambitions, but they can usually pay for the spell you are trying to resolve. If you manage to stick an Incandescent Soulstoke, you are a huge favorite for the game, as they can’t counter some of your key spells anymore. Often it is right to even flash in a Flamekin Harbinger so they can’t stop whatever threat (mostly Reveillark or Cloudthresher) you are about to present to them.

Playing first and drawing first:
+2 Cloudthresher
+3 Fulminator Mage
+1 Wispmare
+1 Eyes of the Wisent
-3 Soul Warden
-1 Nameless Inversion
-3 Reveillark

They usually have a lot of sideboard options as well, including Peppersmoke, Puppeteer Clique, Flashfreeze, Deathmark, Sower of Temptation, and Thoughtseize. Their clock is usually far slower in post-board games, and that’s why I tend to cut Soul Warden even though it is great in the pre-board games.

U/W Reveillark

This matchup is fairly easily if they don’t have a lot of Clones and Mistmeadow Witches in their deck. With the help of Clone, Mistmeadow Witch, and Reveillark, they are able to keep Horde of Notions in check... Which is your game plan in the matchup. The board is stalled pretty quickly, and both players have a hard time attacking. Horde of Notions is the stall breaker, as it is able to kill all their non-basic lands and eventually all their creatures. You want to tutor up Nameless Inversion early in the game, as one of the more annoying cards in their deck is Sower of Temptation. Once you’ve figured out how to play the matchup, you shouldn’t have a lot of trouble (unless they have Witches and Clones).

(+1 Eyes of the Wisent)
(+2-3 Pithing Needle)
+2 Cloudthresher
-3 Soul Warden

Their sideboard options are very limited again. The most popular choices are Path to Exile and Flashfreeze. If your opponent is running plenty of main deck countermagic you want to bring in the Eyes of the Wisent, while if they are running Mistmeadow Witch you want to have access to at least two Pithing Needles.

Five-Color Control

This matchup is very complicated and very hard to explain. I’ve played the matchup a lot, and usually the player making the first mistake will lose the game... unless one or both players have a really bad draw. If you want to play Elementals, and there are several Five-Color Control players in your metagame, you should test the matchup a lot, as almost every single game plays out differently.

Playing first:
+3 Fulminator Mage
+1 Eyes of the Wisent
-1 Nameless Inversion
-3 Soul Warden

Drawing first:
+2 Fulminator Mage
+1 Cloudthresher
+1 Eyes of the Wisent
-3 Soul Warden
-1 Nameless Inversion

The Five-Color Control deck has a lot of sideboard options, and it’s hard to know what they can board in. Popular choices include several types of Mass Removal (Wrath of God, Hallowed Burial, Infest) or Spot Removal (Celestial Purge). Fulminator Mage on the draw is much less impressive than it is on the play. As you don’t have any disruption to stop them from drawing cards, destroying their lands is much less effective. I am unsure yet, but I could imagine boarding the third Cloudthresher over another Fulminator Mage if I am drawing first.

...

The deck plays fairly well in any metagame that doesn’t feature a lot of WW/b Kithkins and Swans. The deck is pretty hard to play, so I suggest you to play the deck a lot if you want to run it in an event that means a lot to you.

Enjoy!

Manuel B


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