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Positive EV – Commons and Uncommons in M10

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Wednesday, August 19th – Today’s Positive EV sees Manuel Bucher sharing his personal Top 20 rankings, by color, for the commons and uncommons in M10. While we know that Overrun, Mind Control, and Fireball are ridiculous, is Rhox Pikemaster better than Safe Passage? What about Gravedigger and Assassinate? Read on to find out!

“Today, Oli and I are going to talk about the non-rare pick order of every color in M10.”

That’s how I would like to start the article.

Sadly, Oli and I are not going to do this together for M10. There is a simple reason for that. I played my first sealed deck with advice from Oli, who had already played a few. I started discovering the format along with him from my first open booster. When we walked together on the streets of Lille recently, we discovered that we have a very similar opinion on the pick orders in M10. Therefore, we wouldn’t have anything to discuss.

I will talk about the Top 20 Commons and Uncommons in every color, and explain why some cards are higher or lower in the standings than you might expect.

White

1 — Serra Angel
2 — Harm’s Way
3 — Pacifism
4 — White Knight
5 — Blinding Mage
6 — Razorfoot Griffin
7 — Armored Ascension
8 — Stormfront Pegasus
9 — Divine Verdict
10 — Soul Warden
11 — Griffin Sentinel
12 — Veteran Armors
13 — Rhox Pikemaster
14 — Safe Passage
15 — Veteran Swordsmith
16 — Siege Mastodon
17 — Excommunicate
18 — Palace Guard
19 — Elite Vanguard
20 — Silvercoat Lion

White Knight is the first card that might have an unusually high rating. First Strike is such a good ability in the format, as a lot of guys on each player’s board will have two toughness. The card also absolutely destroys Mono-Black, which is one of the best archetypes in the format. If you are Mono-Black, you should try to get some cards in your sideboard just to fight this guy (like Giant Spider), because otherwise this card kills you on its own. Sadly, both Oli and I have made this mistake several times.

Razorfoot Griffin is so high for the very same reason as White Knight, albeit without the ability to destroy an entire draft archetype by itself. Blinding Mage is a much better card against Green, while both of the cards are at a similar power level against any of the other decks.

You might be wondering why Armored Ascension is as low as 7th place in the ranking when it was one of the best cards in Shadowmoor. It is very hard to draft a Mono-White deck, unlike in Shadowmoor. As removal is so important in the format, one reason for your opponent to play one of their chosen colors is because they got passed a fine removal spell (or opened one). Therefore the card often trades two-for-one against… but if it doesn’t, it always wins the game.

Divine Verdict is a card I thought was almost unplayable in Lorwyn, as against a smart opponent you could almost never kill an attacking creature unless he developed the board several turns before he started attacking, while you Time Walked yourself again and again by having Neck Snap up. In M10 it is a lot different. A lot of the bombs come down after you have almost emptied your hand, and if your opponent is Time Walking you when you leave four mana up, you usually don’t mind if his Shivan Dragon is neither attacking nor blocking. Also, if he does it when you leave Divine Verdict open, you can start to bluff it and gain several turns from a non-attacking bomb.

Veteran Armorsmith is much like White Knight, in that he stops a lot of early drops. He is much weaker than White Knight or Razorfoot Griffin in the mid- to late game, where he has almost no impact on the board, while White Knight and Razorfoot Griffin still are able to shine. I am not a huge fan of the soldier chain, and don’t see the pump effect to other soldiers making an impact on the board often enough; it would make him a much better card if he did. I pick it over Rhox Pikemaster because he is a very good two-drop, stopping most of the other two- and three-drops, and there are a lot of guys which he cannot stop, while Rhox Pikemaster can deal with such creatures easily.

Safe Passage is a card Oli might rate higher than me. So far, it never produced more than a one-for-one trade whenever I played with it or played against it. My opponent was never able to catch a Fireball or an Earthquake of mine, and I couldn’t do the same to any of his cards. However, the card, unlike other commons in the format, is able to win a game by itself. That is why I pick it over other solid commons like Veteran Swordsmith or Siege Mastodon. I truly understand if you pick the card higher than Veteran Armorsmith or Rhox Pikemaster if it has been awesome for you, or if you pick the card lower than Elite Vanguard because the only thing you have gotten out of it was an expensive Fog.

Blue

1 — Mind Control
2 — Air Elemental
3 — Merfolk Looter
4 — Sleep
5 — Illusionary Servant
6 — Ice Cage
7 — Snapping Drake
8 — Essence Scatter
9 — Wind Drake
10 — Wall of Frost
11 — Phantom Warrior
12 — Coral Merfolk
13 — Horned Turtle
14 — Negate
15 — Flashfreeze
16 — Divination
17 — Ponder
18 — Unsummon
19 — Cancel
20 — Sage Owl

Merfolk Looter might be the best common in the format. If he is not handled when he comes down, he often wins the game alone. He digs for your bombs, and for solutions to the bombs from your opponent. Looters are worse in a format where the card quality of every card is about even, but in a format like M10, where the differences between the cards are insanely huge, Looter is awesome.

When I first played the format, I didn’t think I would like Illusionary Servant, nor Ice Cage. As it turns out, there are only a few cards that make card advantage against both those cards, and if not dealt with they are really good. Illusionary Servant outclasses all the other early drops, and your opponent often has to use one of his best cards to deal with him. Ice Cage is a great support for Illusionary Servant, as it deals with cards that can kill Illusionary Servant without spending a card, like Blinding Mage or Prodigal Pyromancer. If your opponent is boarding in something like Firebreathing, you are still trading one-for-one, which is fine, as if you don’t have the Servant or the Ice Cage, and he is drawing the card, it is almost like a mulligan for him. Panic Attack can be devastating, though…

You might wonder why I am picking Snapping Drake over Wind Drake. While, in a vacuum, Wind Drake might be the better card, it turns out that you are often stuck with a lot of three-drops, with only a few four-drops. Snapping Drake balances out that curve perfectly, and you get the one power for free most of the time.

Wall of Frost was a card I picked very highly at the beginning, but it really disappointed me. It is amazing against any Red or Green aggressive strategy, but aside from that it doesn’t do a lot. Blue and White offer a lot of evasion, and Black or Red are often very controlling in the format, using the early drops to trade and beating down with evasion creatures later on.

While I respect Negate, Flashfreeze, and Cancel in Sealed, I almost dislike them in Draft. The chance that your opponent is splashing a card like Fireball is a lot lower in draft than it was in Sealed, while if you open Fireball you would play it more often than not. Cancel is a bit too slow in the format, — even though M10 is more bomb-oriented than other formats. Essence Scatter counters a lot of bombs in the mid- and late-game too, but it has a very important duty on turn 2, especially when you are drawing first.

Black

1 — Doom Blade
2 — Tendrils of Corruption
3 — Howling Banshee
4 — Consume Spirit
5 — Black Knight
6 — Deathmark
7 — Rise from the Grave
8 — Bog Wraith
9 — Gravedigger
10 — Assassinate
11 — Child of Night
12 — Diabolic Tutor
13 — Weakness
14 — Sign in Blood
15 — Kelinore Bat
16 — Dread Warlock
17 — Mind Rot
18 — Wall of Bone
19 — Warpath Ghoul
20 — Looming Shade

Today, Oli and I discussed the times when Tendrils of Corruption is better than Doom Blade. The Blade is such a good card because it can deal with bombs like Baneslayer Angel or Shivan Dragon easily, but if you are Mono-Black then Tendrils would do the same. Therefore, it would be better. But where is the borderline? We agreed that if you are running twelve or more Swamps, Tendrils of Corruption is probably better, and about the same power level on eleven. I would still slightly prefer the Tendrils at eleven; even though it might not be able to deal with bombs constantly, Red Aggro decks have a lot of trouble dealing with Tendrils of Corruption.

Deathmark is an amazing card, and I would always main deck it. The card is obviously amazing against every White or Green deck, and as most of your opponents are those colors. I would pick it highly. For me, this card and Howl of the Night Pack are the most underrated stars of the format.

I didn’t like Rise from the Grave a lot at first, but the card is always amazing. When Oli saw my pick orders, he admitted that he would probably pick it four (or even five) spots lower, but he fears that I am right on the ranking. The card has a lot of synergy with the Black control strategy, where you are able to deal with bombs or might force them to discard a good guy early with Mind Rot. I guess, much like Safe Passage, the card has also a lot to do with experience… and I am not entirely sure if it is as good as I rank it right now.

Bog Wraith is one of the few four-drops which Black has to offer, and it stops a lot of the early drops. Gravedigger is on a very similar power level , but in the matchup where Gravedigger is supposed to shine — against removal heavy decks — Bog Wraith is often better as they often are based in Black. So against any non-Red deck, I like the Bog Wraith a bit more, either for its bigger body or for the ability.

The decision how to rate Diabolic Tutor is very tricky, and is dependent on what you’ve already got. If you can target a Deathmark, Tendrils of Corruption, and a bomb in your Mono-Black deck, you absolutely want a Tutor in your 40 cards. In a Red/Black aggro deck, the card is little more than filler.

Weakness might be a weaker card than several other cards rated below it. This is because all the late cards are one of the many three-drops Black has to offer. The power level between the fifteenth rated Kelinore Bat and Vampire Aristocrat, which didn’t even make it on the list, is so close that it is just not worth it picking a three-drop early; you will receive more than enough during the draft.

Something short (and pretty much obvious) on Looming Shade: The card should be picked much higher if you are Mono-Black, but even if you are running around ten or eleven Swamps, I would pick the cards I rated above it a little lower.

Red

1 — Fireball
2 — Lightning Bolt
3 — Dragon Whelp
4 — Pyroclasm
5 — Goblin Artillery
6 — Prodigal Pyromancer
7 — Seismic Strike
8 — Stone Giant
9 — Viashino Spearhunter
10 — Sparkmage Apprentice
11 — Canyon Minotaur
12 — Goblin Piker
13 — Wall of Fire
14 — Jackal Familiar
15 — Berserkers of Blood Ridge
16 — Inferno Elemental
17 — Fiery Hellhound
18 — Ignite Disorder
19 — Lightning Elemental
20 — Lava Axe

In the early phase of the draft I would always pick Lightning Bolt over Dragon Whelp, but as soon as you are sure that Red will not end up as a splash and you are running nine or more Mountains, I would start picking the Whelp over it. The Whelp is slightly more powerful, but you will not be able to splash it.

Oli does like Stone Giant a touch more than Seismic Strike, but I think it is very important to kill something like Merfolk Looter or Blinding Mage. Stone Giant is an excellent four-drop and it stops more or less all the non-Green non-evasive creatures. In both an aggressive strategy and a controlling one, the ability is awesome, either for Flinging your guys into your opponent’s face, or simply to deal with Snapping or Wind Drakes.

Sparkmage Apprentice is awesome against any Blue deck, as it is not only able to deal with Merfolk Looters, but also with both Illusionary Servant and Ice Cage. Red, Black, and White have several fine targets as well, while the card is more often than not pretty bad against Green.

Wall of Fire is obviously dependent on whether you are controlling or beating down. Obviously, if you are beating down, Jackal Familiar is better, and Lava Axe trumps it. But in any controlling strategy, Wall of Fire is much better than I rated it at first. Unlike Wall of Ice, it is able to deal with multiple attackers when you leave two or more mana to pump it up.

I rate Berserkers of Blood Ridge higher than Inferno Elemental for several reasons. If I control a 4/4 guy, I want to attack with it most of the time. While you are unable to gang block Inferno Elemental, I don’t mind if Berserkers of Blood Ridge does get blocked by a pair of Grizzlies. The fact that he comes down a turn earlier, and the fact that the only common blocker against which Inferno Elemental is better being Siege Mastodon, I like the Berserker slightly more.

Green

1 — Overrun
2 — Cudgel Troll
3 — Acidic Slime
4 — Howl of the Night Pack
5 — Awakener Druid
6 — Centaur Courser
7 — Stampeding Rhino
8 — Borderland Ranger
9 — Deadly Recluse
10 — Giant Spider
11 — Llanowar Elves
12 — Elvish Visionary
13 — Giant Growth
14 — Rampant Growth
15 — Runeclaw Bear
16 — Oakenform
17 — Prized Unicorn
18 — Windstorm
19 — Mold Adder
20 — Emerald Onyx

Howl of the Night Pack is another much underrated card. More often than not, it is a seven mana “I win the game” spell. If you are based in Green, or if you are two colors with an even manabase including Borderland Rangers and Rampant Growths, the spell is amazing. As an early pick, I pick Acidic Slime slightly over it, as it is a bit more powerful in an even manabase.

The rankings that fall between Centaur Courser and Giant Spider is very close; all the cards are on a very similar power level. Oli and I spent a lot of time talking about those five creatures, and we both like Centaur Courser slightly more than the others, as there are only a few early drops that can compete with him. Borderland Ranger can go as high as third if you are splashing a bomb like Fireball and you need it to support it, but as an early pick I would pick all the other cards over it. The Rhino is one of the very few Green “evasion” creatures, and it’s very hard to handle, as most blockers are 1/4 in the format. Giant Spider can be amazing depending on the matchup, yet against a controlling deck all the other creatures are better, but only slightly worse against a beatdown deck.

Elvish Visionary is a lot better in this format than it was in Shards of Alara. There are several Goblin Piker style creatures, with which you are able to trade, and it is the perfect target for Oakenform. Even though Oakenform is a mediocre aura, it has a pretty fine place in the Green deck. You have several good targets, and you don’t mind trading two-for-one as you already got some value out of the creature before (like Borderland Ranger or the Visionary). It can also blow out games if you are able to enchant Prized Unicorn with it when your opponent is tapped out.

I’m not mentioning the artifacts, as in draft the only good ones are Rod of Ruin and Gorgon Flail, and rarely Whispersilk Cloak. All of those artifacts depend a lot on your deck, and it is very hard to say where in the rankings they should be.

This is it for this week. Thanks for reading!

Manu B