There were some interesting shifts in the metagame in Orlando as the performance of Red Deck Wins in Kuala Lumpur clearly inspired a lot of players and the archetype jumped up to the second most popular. U/W Control also ticked up a little while Naya slipped from the second most popular deck to fourth.
50+% Winners included the usual suspects Jund Naya U/W Control and Knightfall and in Orlando they were joined by White Weenie Polymorph and Turbofog. 50+% winners from Indianapolis Nissa Monument and Open the Vaults fell off the wagon and back under the 50-50 line.
With three recent StarCityGames.com Open events let’s take a look at how the match-ups have looked over time.
Jund – 25.63% of the Field – Won 54.44% of Matches
In Orlando Jund put up its worst performance against almost every major match-up; Vampires and White Weenie being the exceptions. Looking over time the match-ups that look to cause the most consistent trouble are Red Deck Wins White Weenie and Mythic. Unfortunately none of these match-ups seem to push much beyond being a 45-55 underdog on a bad day and overall stay around 50%. Jund is still top dog but in Orlando there were definitely some chinks in the armor.
Red Deck Wins – 13.50% of the Field – Won 47.81% of Matches
The question that you have to answer regarding Red Deck Wins is whether you are willing to be a dog to most of the field in order to gain a slight edge against Jund. With Jund routinely topping 25% of the field and dominating the format more and more players are answering ‘yes’ to this question. The problem is that pesky other 75% of the field including a White Weenie match-up that looks all but unwinnable.
U/W Control – 8.01% of the Field – Won 53.10% of Matches
Orlando was the best day for U/W Control out of the three events especially against Jund. Sadly that still means giving that match-up away at a 43-57 clip. This is the first event where I feel comfortable saying that U/W Control is an acceptable choice against the field. Although I would still only recommend it for dedicated control players who are determined to find a deck to suit their tastes in this metagame.
Naya – 8.01% of the Field – Won 57.08% of Matches
Finally a winning record against Jund! My main knock on this deck has been its inability to post an acceptable win percentage against the best deck and it finally had a good day on that front. On the flip side the U/W Control match-up looks like it may have gotten fair. All in all Naya was the deck of the day taking home the title as well as its best overall performance of the three events.
Under the Radar:
Turbofog is a deck that pops up from time to time usually whenever the metagame forgets that it exists. At 7-3 in 31st place Nicholas Snider didn’t quite live the dream of ambushing the metagame on the way to the top but that is still a respectable finish for a deck that many would consider an afterthought.
Turbofog seems capable of knocking off almost any deck that doesn’t have a sideboard plan and with Turbofog making up such a small percentage of the field it’s a safe bet that will be most of them. Don’t be surprised if you see a Turbofog deck around the top tables of a large event soon.
For those of you who follow the Too Much Information series and are waiting on the results from last week’s poll: Legacy Counter-Top decks of all stripes will be getting a full breakdown in a special TMI. Every Counter-Top Decklist will be laid out in a spreadsheet along with a special results sheet featuring more detailed Sub-Archetypes.
With Rise of the Eldrazi hitting shelves next Friday the format is sure to change. Strong performances from Polymorph decks in Orlando should raise some eyebrows as the Eldrazi will be some shiny new toys to morph up. Be sure to pay close attention to the StarCityGames.com Open Weekend in Atlanta on May 1st and 2nd as it sets the metagame for the National Qualifiers!