Innovations – Analyzing States And Redesigning Birthing Pod

*= Dredgevine, JunkVat, Shape Anew, and Puresteel

Blue Control includes all of the base blue control decks besides Solar Flare, Tezzeret, Burning Vengeance, and U/W Blade (if you count that as control). The most popular Blue Control deck in the winner’s circle was U/B (making up about half of the blue control decks). Esper, Grixis, Bant, and U/W all made appearances as well.

There were a couple G/W Human decks that I lumped in with the G/W Tokens builds. There was a single Mono-Black Control, which has been grouped with Mono-Black Infect (which really is a form of Mono-Black Control). The Pod decks varied wildly, as it is clear there is no consensus build or even direction to go with Pod). The RUG decks all appear to be direct descendants of Kibler’s RUG deck.

This chart paints a pretty clear picture of a metagame dominated by Wolf Run Ramp, which comes as no surprise after last weekend’s GP Brisbane results. It is interesting to note, however, that a lot more people had access to good U/B lists in Brisbane (percentage-wise) than in the State Championships. As U/B is so effective against Wolf Run Ramp (when properly built), it is likely to spread like wildfire here in North America.

For reference, here is the GP Brisbane day 2 metagame:

Day 2 Metagame from GP Brisbane

Wolf Run Ramp 27.8%
U/B Control 13.9%
Solar Flare 11.1%
Mono Red 9.7%
Mono Green 9.7%
G/W/x Tokens 8.3%
U/W Blade 5.6%
Tempered Steel 5.6%
Puresteel 4.2%
G/B/W Heartless Pod 1.4%
Mono-Black Infect 1.4%
RUG 1.4%

In recent seasons, we have consistently seen foreign GPs that are held the same weekend as US events feature decks from a different age of the metagame, with the US consistently a couple weeks ahead in development. This is not a couple weeks “better”; it is a couple weeks further into the future. If you go too far into the future, you risk beating the decks that people don’t play yet and losing to the “out-dated” decks that people “shouldn’t be playing.” The greatly increased number of large competitive events in the US causes the metagame to evolve faster than overseas; however the internet spreads effectively and “catches everyone up,” meaning no one can ever really stay more than a week or two ahead.  

We see a similar phenomenon on Magic Online, at times. Magic Online has so many events so often, as well as its own unique constraints, the metagame often evolves significantly faster and in a different direction than in real life. The faster a metagame evolves, the more likely it is to become inbred. Magic Online has been well known to be exceptionally inbred for years, but the SCG Open Series puts serious pressure on the real-life metagame. Over the past year, year and a half, we have been seen this spread to paper Magic more and more.

This time, however, it appears the GP metagame is almost shockingly identical to that of the State and Provincial Champs. If anything, the GP meta is slightly ahead, as it appears not as many people in the US were as developed in terms of technology for control or the proliferation of Wolf Run Green as an alternative to Wolf Run Ramp. Some number of States players (including Owen Turtenwald) actually played Wolf Run Green and are listed as Wolf Run Ramp, so it is best to look at both of those archetypes together. The most likely explanation for the lag in metagame evolution this time is that State and Provincial Champs events are surely significantly softer than SCG Open events (which often feature many of the stronger players from several states).

It is useful to remember that in the GP Brisbane data, Tezzeret was lumped in with U/B Control. If we merge Tezzeret with Blue Control and compare the two events side by side:

 

Most fascinating to me is that the first 10/11 of the top 11 decks from each side of the Pacific line up almost exactly, despite this being a brand new metagame. The metagame really is brand new, as Brian Sondag and Christopher Thomson’s Wolf Run Ramp has completely turned the format on its ear compared to last week. Wolf Run, Solar Flare, U/B Control, and Mono Red remain the most important gauntlet decks, with G/W Tokens being my current pick for ideal fifth gauntlet deck. Caw-Blade is really not different enough from Solar Flare and U/B Control to justify a third gauntlet spot. Mono-Black, Pod, U/W Destiny, and RUG are just not popular enough. This leaves Tempered Steel and G/W Tokens. Either would actually be a reasonable fifth deck, I just think G/W Tokens is a better deck and generally going to trend upwards whereas Tempered Steel seems like a worse version of the same concept.

As I see the GP results as being a couple days ahead of the North American results, any change in the difference column is a mild indicator of whether we can expect to see more or less of each deck in the week to come. It should be remembered that while Wolf Run Ramp has a slight decrease, this is because of the emergence of Wolf Run Green as an archetype. If we merge both Wolf Run decks, we see a total of 37.5% of the day two meta at the GP, for a change of +7.9%. This is a big increase, to be sure, and as we warned last week, Wolf Run is the real deal. The meta will start to adjust, but this deck isn’t going anywhere. This is public enemy #1, and even after U/B Control spreads, we are still likely to see north of 20%-25% Wolf Run for a while.

It is interesting that U/W Destiny continues to be a presence in North America but was non-existent at the Australian GP. Going the other way, Puresteel was almost non-existent in the 2011s but put several people into day two of the GP. The sample size on these is small enough that it could be variance, but these are two strategies to watch to try to figure out which side was underestimating which.

An interesting stat that isn’t visible from this chart is the number of Wolf Run Ramp winners vs. Solar Flare winners. Looking at only 1st place finishes, Wolf Run managed 12 titles out of 28 states and provinces. Winning 43% of the titles means that Wolf Run Ramp continued to over-perform even at the highest tables. Meanwhile, Solar Flare won only a single title out of 28 events (the Saskatchewan championship). How was Solar Flare 12.6% of the metagame and 3.6% of the winners? Well, Solar Flare actually was significantly more than 12.6% of the top 8 metagame, but could never get past Wolf Run Ramp (a deck that was increasingly popular the deeper into the tournament it was).  

You have been hearing it recently from Gerry Thompson, Michael Flores, Brian Kibler, myself, and others that Solar Flare is toxic and should be avoided (or redesigned). This is the beginnings of that. It is a powerful collection of cards but has a mediocre manabase and a terrible matchup against Wolf Run Ramp. Solar Flare didn’t win during its debut (two Mono Reds in the finals), nor during its “peak” in popularity (Wolf Run’s debut). Now, we have 28 state championships and a Grand Prix, and its only win was the Saskatchewan championships. This is not a deck that wins tournaments. Obviously it could; there is just a lot of evidence that suggests this is a classic Swiss deck.

Have you ever met one of those players who frequently top 8s PTQs but never wins? Maybe you, yourself, are one such player. There are a variety of factors at play, of course, but one often overlooked factor is that the metagame changes in Swiss vs. the top 8. This phenomenon is explained quite well by Flores here . Obviously we want to beat everything, but if we can sacrifice some percentage against the Swiss metagame to gain some percentage against the top 8 metagame, we are increasing variance (fewer top 8s), but we are more likely to spike a win when we actually do make top 8. We must fight to not overcompensate from this, but it can be useful to take into consideration the metagame at the top a bit more.

Pod continues to have little presence in the metagame. This is surely a result of everyone’s Pod decks just being updates from the previous season. Pod is an extremely customizable strategy that can be tuned to beat whatever you want. The successful Pod decks from last season that everyone is basing their builds on were designed to beat Caw-Blade and operate in a world of Twin, Valakut, Mono Red, Tempered Steel, and other Pod decks. That isn’t even close to what today’s meta looks like. Even though Valakut and Wolf Run Ramp are really the same at their core, they are executed differently enough that Pod’s plan against each is going to be different. Splinter Twin isn’t even legal, which completely changes the boundaries of the format. Caw-Blade, Mono Red, Tempered Steel, and other Pod decks now make up less than a quarter of the metagame.

What we need is to redesign Birthing Pod from the ground up. Birthing Pod itself is an extremely powerful card, and the format is not actually inherently “hostile” towards Pod. With U/B on the rise, that is historically a good matchup for Pod, meaning more good matchups. Twin was generally Pod’s worst matchup, so that is one fewer bad one. What we need to do is go back to the drawing board. Templating is a powerful tool, but becoming slave to it can lead us to overlooking possible innovation.

If your perspective on a problem leads to stagnation, change your perspective! It appears that most current Pod lists are based on Top -> Down and Bottom -> Up thinking, namely what is still left from the old Pod decks and what needs to be replaced. Since these views seem to have stagnated Pod development, let’s instead switch to Backwards (Back -> Front) thinking. What will our crucial turns look like? Then what will we do the turn before that? The turn before that? Additionally, when we apply our Top à Down and Bottom à Up perspectives, let’s look at the rest of the new format, instead of previous-generation Pod decks. What is going on in the current format? What is missing?

Well, one of the most important new tools available to Pod decks is Skaab Ruinator. The ability to turn two-drops into Skaab Ruinator is extremely aggressive and not fully exploited yet. What does the game look like earlier that turn? The turn before that? Well, if our game plan is to sacrifice two-drops, we need some to sacrifice. Amazingly, I have seen lists with Skaab Ruinator and just three Viridian Emissaries and a Phantasmal Image for two-drops! The Phantasmal Image isn’t even usually going to count as having a cost of two, so how are we going to actually be able to search up our Fat Moti? I realize that most of the sweet two-drops are gone (Lotus Cobra, Sylvan Ranger, Nest Invader), but we have to find something.

Mayor of Avabruck is a powerful card in the abstract, but the format seems pretty hostile for him at the moment. There are so many Geistflames, Gut Shots, Wring Fleshes, Arc Trails, and Galvanic Blasts. Besides, Pod decks generally aren’t going to have many instants, and he is generally a better fit for instant-speed decks (that can flip him without “wasting” a turn).

Brian Kibler sang Viridian Emissary’s praises last week, and I agree with him 100%. Viridian Emissary has improved tremendously, especially if we have an aggressive slant to capitalize on him as a two-power “unblockable” creature (since no one ever wants to fight this guy). We can obviously max out on him, but if we are going to consistently be able to drop a Pod and use it to find a Ruinator, we are going to need more two-drops. What about Doc Awk himself, the Oculus?

Obviously Oculus isn’t breaking any records on raw power, but he is a fine blocker, a fine creature to sacrifice, and rarely “dead.” If you can handle his slightly awkward clumsiness when it comes to actually spending mana on him, he is actually reasonable, especially in this format where dealing one damage to something is actually relevant.

One of the major failings of most Pod decks so far is their attempts to replace a full set of fetchlands with a full set of Innistrad lands. Additionally, they have replaced Lotus Cobra and Sylvan Ranger with Viridian Emissaries and Solemn Simulacrum. That is just not realistic. These are all fine cards, but other aspects of the deck must change. No Cobras or Rangers means a lot less color fixing early. Innistrad lands instead of fetches means more playing tapped lands on turn 1 and less playing Birds or Llanowar Elves on turn one. No fetches also means that Ponder is way, way worse than it was (which in turn means even less smoothing out of our draws).

One possible solution is to play just two colors. Another is to play Rampant Growth/Caravan Vigil types. Another is to play Bant (which at least has Avacyn’s Pilgrim and eight Scars lands). Bant Pod seems to be the most prevalent so far, but we are trying to do something a bit different today, so let’s try a build that is base two colors, but with a third color splash. This is in contrast to the old RUG Pod decks that featured all three colors prominently. By only needing two colors early, we are better able to count on Viridian Emissary and Solemn Simulacrum to actually get our third color in a meaningful time-frame.

What else is going on in the format? After all, RUG Pod often used cards like Nature’s Claim, Forked Bolt, Dismember, Act of Aggression, and so on to support its game plan. These support spells were selected based on what other strategies were doing. Most of the Pod decks I have seen lately just replace support spells with even more “bullets.” You don’t actually need a bullet for everything! When evaluating each possible one-of, we have to ask ourselves, could we get by just fetching one of the existing cards that costs that same amount?

Looking at the States data, we see:

35.7% Blue Control or Aggro Control
29.7% Ramp
28.5% Aggro

There are a couple of other types of strategies such as Mono-Black Infect or other Pod decks, but for the most part, these are the primary three categories. All three are relatively comparable in size, which is why we should make sure our gauntlet has two Blue Control/Aggro Control decks and two actual Aggro decks. Additionally, we should play more games against Ramp than any of the others, making it our top priority.

How does this affect us as Pod players? Well, let’s ask ourselves what our game plan is against each of these styles and what they are likely to do to try to stop us. Starting with Control, we are probably going to most heavily count on Birthing Pod itself to beat these people. While a few control decks have access to Ancient Grudge (which is bad for us), the vast majority tend to have either Oblivion Ring or Ratchet Bomb as their artifact removal. This is interesting because I loved Nature’s Claim in Pod before. What about Naturalize?

Nature’s Claim was always bad against Valakut, but Wolf Run Ramp is a very different animal. In addition to Wurmcoils, it relies on Inkmoth Nexus. What about Mono Red? Shrine of Burning Rage, of course. Tempered Steel? Naturalize is obviously great there. Caw-Blade? O-ring is a 4x everywhere, in addition to Swords and Nexus. G/W Tokens? Intangible Virtue and sometimes even Honor of the Pure! U/B Control? It isn’t good here but isn’t completely dead (Ratchet Bomb, Wurmcoil, etc.).

One of U/B’s biggest weaknesses is its lack of artifact removal, so we naturally have an advantage there. What about Solar Flare, which can actually stop our O-Rings? What do we do in the games we don’t get to Pod? They even have Surgical Extraction or Purify the Grave for our Skaab Ruinator!

Well, what beats Solar Flare? Wolf Run Ramp. So, let’s borrow some of their technology. We can add a couple Kessig Wolf Runs and a Primeval Titan! The Kessig Wolf Runs will have to be in place of spells (since we are trying to preserve the manabase as best we can), and we won’t be able to get a full set of Inkmoths, but we can at least dabble in this game plan. Besides, Kessig Wolf Run gives us a good way to make every creature a threat later. This is especially valuable when combined with Viridian Emissary, Oculus, and Birds of Paradise.

Additionally, we may not have Vengevine to prey on control anymore, but a lot of these control decks are soft to Thrun, the Last Troll. Viridian Emissary and Oculus make us real good against Liliana anyway, so a lot of people are going to be real short on answers. We have to be aware of Phantasmal Image, but as Solar Flare declines and U/B gains in popularity, this will be less of an issue.

What about the Aggro decks?

Forked Bolt was always a great weapon here. We could Arc Trail (which is definitely a good card in the format), but in an effort to keep the manabase as good as possible, let’s experiment with needing only blue and green in the early turns. Geistflame is awesome right now, but I am setting it aside for the moment for the same reason. What about Gut Shot? Gut Shot is actually quite solid in the format, and that it can be cast without any red mana early is very appealing. It isn’t a great draw later, but it does have uses. For instance, let’s say you are tapped out on four. Your opponent wants to drop their Jace, Memory Adept before you get up to Titan mana, so they tap out to play it now. What’s the worst that could happen? You endstep Gut Shot your Emissary, then untap and play a land and a Titan!

The other Gut Shot is Mortarpod, as a colorless source of one point of direct damage. Mortarpod is a stronger card and works incredibly with Viridian Emissary, Oculus, and Solemn Simulacrum, but it does have its drawbacks. For instance, it only beats a turn-one Stromkirk Noble on the play (which is not the one you need the help with).

If Primeval Titan is our “six” against control, Wurmcoil is probably the “six” of choice against aggro. Inferno Titan used to occupy this spot, but the lifelink is more important than ever, as is living through a removal spell. It may be that Inferno Titan is just too good to pass up, but it is worth at least trying to make a build that stays true to the U/G/r goal.

As for Ramp decks, what about putting down a quick Skaab Ruinator and buying ourselves enough time to ride it to victory? He keeps planeswalkers off the table, dodges Slagstorm, and is only slowed down by Beast Within. What does it mean to buy ourselves time? Act of Aggression has always been a favorite of mine in Pod decks, as you can sacrifice the creature you steal to your Pod, plus it is a very aggressive tempo play that punishes people that play Titans.

Beast Within also helps combat Titans, as well as giving us additional ways to combat Oblivion Ring. Besides, Viridian Emissary and Oculus make excellent targets for Beast Within, ensuring it is never “bad.” Additionally, if we use Aether Adept, we can actually turn Beast Within’s drawback into an advantage.

We have Primeval Titan for control and Wurmcoil for aggro. How about Frost Titan for ramp? Phyrexian Ingester is a big dream and obviously goes way over the top when you get it with Birthing Pod + Act of Aggression. That said, when you are at that point, you are probably doing alright anyway. Let’s start with Frost Titan, which can give us some much-needed tempo to let our Skaab Ruinator fly over for the win.

With these ideas in mind, let’s sketch out a list to start from.

RUG Birthing Pod

Patrick Chapin

Test deck on 10-23-2011

Standard

Creatures (25)

• 1 Solemn Simulacrum
• 4 Birds of Paradise
• 2 Acidic Slime
• 1 Aether Adept
• 1 Frost Titan
• 1 Primeval Titan
• 1 Wurmcoil Engine
• 1 Sylvok Replica
• 1 Precursor Golem
• 1 Thrun, the Last Troll
• 2 Oculus
• 4 Viridian Emissary
• 1 Phyrexian Metamorph
• 1 Deceiver Exarch
• 1 Phantasmal Image
• 1 Skaab Ruinator
• 1 Tree of Redemption

Lands (11)

• 4 Copperline Gorge
• 1 Inkmoth Nexus
• 4 Hinterland Harbor
• 2 Kessig Wolf Run

Spells (25)

• 6 Forest
• 2 Mountain
• 4 Island
• 2 Rampant Growth
• 1 Naturalize
• 2 Ponder
• 1 Mortarpod
• 4 Birthing Pod
• 2 Beast Within
• 1 Gut Shot

Sideboard

• 1 Naturalize
• 1 Ghost Quarter
• 1 Ancient Grudge
• 2 Arc Trail
• 1 Viridian Corrupter
• 1 Inkmoth Nexus
• 3 Act of Aggression
• 2 Gut Shot
• 1 Tormentor Exarch
• 1 Skaab Ruinator
• 1 Daybreak Ranger

As you can see, by developing the list backwards, we have arrived at quite a different place than where updating previous Pod lists would take us.  

I figure we will want Skaab Ruinator most of the time, so our three-drop selection has to answer the question of: what would we want when we don’t want a 5/6 flier? Sylvok Replica obviously solves important problems, and because it works at instant speed, it gets the nod over Viridian Corrupter main. Besides, having more answers to Oblivion Ring is real nice. The Corrupter in the board does put in a little over-time, as he is a mondo combo with Kessig Wolf Run.

Aether Adept solves problems that Sylvok Replica can’t, plus “turns on” our Beast Withins. Deceiver Exarch is the perfect target for when we want to actually climb up the chain. We may not draw a card like we did with Sea Gate Oracle, but at least we can untap our Pod and get an extra “turn” worth of Podding out of him.

Solemn Simulacrum is our go-to four-drop for when we just want value. Thrun goes the total opposite direction and gives us a badass threat. Phyrexian Metamorph is obviously a fantastic option, as it does very different things than either of the other possibilities. As always, it is important to remember Metamorph and Phantasmal Image make excellent answers to Geist of Saint Traft. Tree of Redemption is our bullet against aggro and an important tool for racing with Skaab Ruinator even against Ramp. After all, he can block a Primeval Titan all day, even one that has fetched up a Kessig Wolf Run, most of the time! Besides, that extra life matters when we are just racing with our Ruinator.

Acidic Slime is our go-to five drop, which is so good in this world of Kessig Wolf Runs, Oblivion Rings, and sketchy manabases. Notice how our go-to three was a threat (a Baneslayer, so to speak), so our other threes were about value (Mulldrifter). Our go-to four is a Mulldrifter, so our other options are Baneslayers. If our go-to five is a Mulldrifter, than we want our option to be a Baneslayer. Urabrask would be nice, but we are trying to keep the mana good. Precursor Golem is a card that everyone seems to have forgotten and one helluva Baneslayer.

Precursor Golem’s weaknesses were Lightning Bolt and Into the Roil, neither of which is legal anymore. He does die to Doom Blade and Slagstorm, but he matches up well against Beast Within, Geistflame, Galvanic Blast, Arc Trail, Gut Shot, Oblivion Ring, Liliana, and more. He hits real hard and fast, and I suspect we will be seeing more of him in a lot of places. For instance, I would love to see a copy or two as an experiment in Kibler’s RUG deck. Obviously no Lotus Cobra is disappointing, but the Golem does take over the board and is amazing value if they don’t have the right kind of kill spell. Kibler’s deck has enough Baneslayers (Skinshifter, Daybreak Ranger, Consecrated Sphinx) that every Doom Blade will be an awesome one-for-one anyway, so there is no great loss there.

The Rampant Growths are a concession to wanting even better mana. It may be that they are too slow, but they are at least worth a try. Without Valakut or Splinter Twin, the format has slowed down quite a bit.

Looking at what we didn’t end up with is interesting in and of itself. Hollowhenge Scavenger seems like a natural replacement for Obstinate Baloth, but the four spot on the curve is very different from the five spot. It wouldn’t be unreasonable at all to put one in the sideboard, depending on how much red is in your meta. Tree of Redemption is just way better at this job, maindeck.

Tormentor Exarch is a fine option, but is resigned to the sideboard for now, as there just aren’t enough important midrange small creatures to kill, like Oracle of Mul Daya or Lotus Cobra.

Hero of Oxid Ridge would be awesome, as would Inferno Titan, but no one ever said it would be easy to stick to our colors. To be fair, Hero is much, much worse than he was, as Squadron Hawks and Overgrown Battlements have been replaced by Snapcaster Mages and Solemn Simulacrums. Urabrask completes the package of awesome double red creatures that are cut to make our mana work. If we added one of these three, we’d probably add at least one copy of each.

Daybreak Ranger is a sweet card, but the format is a bit hostile for it, at the moment. Wolf Run Ramp, Solar Flare, U/B Control, and Mono Red are not the matchups for it, so it is more of a sideboard option for us. Besides, we have to ask ourselves, would we really get this instead of a Skaab Ruinator? Against non-red aggro and various midrange decks we might, hence experimenting with one in the board.

I currently only have one Inkmoth Nexus main, which may just be flawed. I am not sure how much space to invest in the Primeval Titan package yet, but one Nexus seems like way more than zero. It would be nice to have a second one to make the plan even better, but I am not sure how often we will actually be on that plan when we don’t have the ability to boost Emissaries and Oculuses. Still, the second one might deserve a maindeck slot. Additionally, we currently have two Ponders, which is probably wrong. It is too hard to tell on theory alone if that number should be 0 or 4, but honestly even 2 or 3 is a reasonable option, since we do have less early blue mana.

This list is totally raw and untested, but Birthing Pod is one of the most powerful cards that isn’t being used well, at the moment. What do you say we do something about that…?

Patrick Chapin
“The Innovator”

@thepchapin on Twitter 
Patrick Chapin “The Innovator” on Facebook

P.S. It is outside the scope of this article, but you might want to consider experimenting with Druidic Satchel in your blue decks…

P.P.S. A public service announcement…