I wrote this because I believe that while half of Jared Gardner's ideas on how to play U/G Madness are correct, they aren't correct for the reasons he gave. I believe that if someone is going to take this information to Regionals, that they should know the logic behind the facts.
The Matchup vs. Tog
The real key to winning this match-up is to go first, and to resolve either a Basking Rootwalla, or a Careful Study for the said Rootwallas. Then, you keep playing creatures to counter-act the creature removal, and to smack them down to zero life before they get to nine land. Winning Tog decks run four Force Spike for first turns and post-Upheaval plays, so a first-turn Rootwalla or Careful Study isn't a sure thing when playing second. You must win when playing first.
Second, he said that U/G could possibly keep up with Tog post-'Heave - which isn't true at all. As soon as they get to nine land, they are going to wait out three key cards ( two of which, the Cunning Wish and 'Heave, they've probably had in-hand for quite some time).. Upheaval, Force Spike, and Cunning Wish. During the U/G player's upkeep, Tog will wish for the Mana Short, drain your pool, and then on their next turn cast Upheaval, lay their Island and play their Tog. On your turn they will Force Spike whatever hopes you had of staying in the race, and swing for lethal damage the next turn. Quick pressure is the only way U/G will beat Tog.
Post-sideboarding, the only cards you could bring in would be Envelop if you thought there was going to be masses of Tog where you play. It only costs one Blue, and backed by a Circular Logic (or even without), it can ruin a Tog player's day (remember, they are trying to float mana to play their critter.. Otherwise, you will have the upper hand).
Matchup vs. Astroglide:
I honestly don't see how this deck should pose much of a problem to U/G at all. Again, the key to winning this is to smack them with your small critters before they have a chance to stabilize their board. Also I would like to note that if you have at least two creatures on the board by turn 3, instead of countering their Astral Slide... You should save your Logic's for the board sweeper (like Wrath of God). even with a Slide in play, there is no way for them to hold of your creatures, while trying to cast their Angel, and still stay alive.
After boarding, this match-up should be very funny, as Slide should stand absolutely no chance. Slide runs at most eight critters (usually four Teroh's Faithful/four Exalted Angel for W/R, or four Cartographer/four Angel for W/G), so the only card you need to board in is Biorhythm. You should run two, since with the deck thinning capabilities of U/G you should get it around the time you can cast it anyway.. It does cost eight, after all. Just keep two or three creatures in play the whole time, and just use your Merfolk Looter to dig into your deck to pull out the Biorhythm. Use your flying chump-blockers to hold off their Angel until you get up to mana (since it doesn't really matter how much life they get off the blocks), then cast the Biorhythm, and swing with a Looter, Walla, Mongrel.. you get the idea. Just make sure that you attack with two or more creatures, since they will block one.
Matchup vs. R/G Beatdown
If they have tested against U/G and know what creatures to burn, you are dead in the water. They can match your early-turn creature output, and they have the removal you are lacking. If you go second, or fall behind in tempo, the game should be over - and it only gets worse if they have main-decked Ensnaring Bridge.
The one thing I can say, is that I like Jared's idea of running Upheaval. It makes the drawn-out match vs. R/G shift slightly in your favor. Even post-'Heave, they can match your creature output to make up for chump blockers, and if they draw into their burn you are screwed... But it helps.
Post-sideboarding, it only gets worse as they will likely max out on the Bridges, and add either Blaze to help in the mid-game stall, or Boil to counteract your card drawing, Wonder, and your 'Heave. (Classically speaking, the Kai-favored R/G builds run neither, but this is Regionals we're preparing for - The Ferrett) The only card that will help you post-sideboarding from your list is Naturalize, and that's only winning half the battle... You still can't deal with their creatures.
Matchup vs. Mono-Black
This match is a lot harder than you are making it out to be. Innocent Blood matches your first-turn 'Walla, they can Smother your Mongrels, Wurm tokens, and Chainer's Edict is a two-for-one in game stalls. With Withered Wretch now legal for play in Standard, game one Mono-Black should have your number. This is one of the few times I can see Upheaval having a truly useful effect. On turn eight when they are cranking out 13/13 Bureaucrats ( it's a legal creature type... I swear...) from their pumped-up Replicator, you can just smile and proceed to make them throw their deck at you.
Post-sideboarding, the best card you can put into this deck is Ground Seal. The Wretch is going to be everywhere, from Cleric decks, MBC (at least in the sideboard, if not main), Mono-Black Aggro builds, to any other concoctions that people are sure to bring. Compared to Compost, I would say that keeping your yard cards (Roars, Wonders, and the like) is slightly more important than drawing more cards than you already are. Also, the Seal breaks apart the gameplan for any Reanimator decks that might show up.
Matchup vs. Opposition
This isn't that hard to win.. just keep swinging, and you should eventually knock them down to 0. They have a choice: Either tap your critters, or your land. With so many flashback spells, and a couple forms of card drawing, neither option looks too promising at some points - so just keep nibbling away at their life total, or dig for your Ray of Revelation/Quiet Speculation if they are tapping your creatures and not land. This game is usually just a matter of time.
Post Sideboarding you need Spellbane Centaur. Get this into play and it says goodnight to Opposition; otherwise, there's always Naturalize. Other than that there's not much else to look for.
Matchup vs. Sligh
This is just more or less a race to stay in the race. U/G needs early chump blockers, and Sligh needs early hits. If you can match their creatures for the first three turns, you should be fine... But watch out for turn 1 Goblin Sledder, turn 2 Raging Goblin with a Reckless Charge in hand. If they went first this, is a lose-lose situation, and just take the six with dignity. Past turn 5, it should be all you since you have access to huge Wurms and flying dogs.
The only sideboard cards you could put in that would even show a difference would be Naturalize if the are running Ensnaring Bridge or Coat of Arms, or maybe bringing bounce spells into this match if you think it would help at all, but that's about your only options. Game two watch out for Boils, so don't just Logic the Goblin Piledriver on a whim.
Matchup vs. G/W
Not that hard to win. The only problem will be a Wrath if they have an Anurid Brushhopper in play (well, it wouldn't actually be in play per se...). Phantom Nishobas aren't nice either, but you should have been able to knock their life down before the Nishoba could be cast or save the game.. As long as you have flying at the moment that is.
Post-sideboarding should bring in some Krosan Reclamations and/or Aether Bursts (if you already weren't running them). Never forget the option of bouncing your own creatures pre-Wrath.
Matchup vs. U/G
This is pretty much a race to get Wonder in the yard. One quick note on this match though: While the Reclamation yanks his Wonder out of the yard, whoever main-decked the bounce should win this matchup.
Post-sideboarding, add more bounce, and the fourth Wonder - and that's about it. You might think about a Spellbane Centaur if they are bounce-heavy, but not too much will change this match.
After looking at the matchups, my sideboard (considering that I am running bounce in my maindeck) would probably look something like:
3 Naturalize (because enchantments and artifacts are everywhere these days)
3 Ground Seal (because Black is so heavily played these days, which means the Wretch is there too)
3 Envelop (it helps beat Tog, and anything that helps beat Tog deserves a spot)
3 Spellbane Centaur (prevents Opposition locks, and keeps bounce spells from neutering your Wurm tokens)
2 Biorhythm (because it just spells g-a-m-e for Slide and Burning Bridge decks, along with creatureless MBC)
1 Wonder (because it helps in the mirror)
I am using such match-specific cards, because I believe these are the only really hard matches for U/G, and so they should be taken into maximum consideration.. with those janky decks you run over on a weekly basis not so necessary when constructing your sideboard. Also, while I love the idea of Upheaval in this deck, it just doesn't really help enough in any of the matches that it should really matter.
I hope that the details of the match-ups and cards I chose and why help clarify some of the points that Jared was poking at. Until the next time, have fun, and I'll see you at the next qualifier.
Anthony Stinson
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