"This can't be happening."

That's what I said after round 5 of Regionals on Saturday. So what was the big deal? Sure, I wasn't doing as well as I had hoped for, but I came to that tournament only hoping to get top 32 at best. The fact was that the metagame that I faced was not what I had expected - not what I had read and prepared so hard for at all. This was a slap in the face.

Here's my story.

I waltz into the hotel ballroom across from Universal Studios, Orlando (I don't know if there's more than one) and immediately see in excess of four hundred people in attendance, which was what I expected. Everyone was either playing casual games, registering their decks, or scrambling at the dealers for the extra cards they needed. I took this opportunity to walk around the entire room and made a tally of the type and number of decks I saw. My findings were:

• 54 U/G Madness
• 32 R/G Beats
• 14 Reanimator
• 11 W/R Slide
• 11 Goblin Sligh
• 7 Psychatog
• 4 Three-Color Wake
• 1 Elvish Succession (yeah!)
• 1 G/W Beasts?
• 4 Various Rogue

The rogue decks were nothing to be reckoned with, and I didn't even bother to write down what they were. But after looking at this field, I was amazed that more Madness was around than Beats! I have been working on 'Tog for over half a year now, and I was determined to get it through whatever metagame there was. For the record, here's what I played:

'Tog!
3 Psychatog
4 Counterspell
4 Force Spike
3 Circular Logic
4 Aether Burst
4 Smother
3 Innocent Blood
1 Chainer's Edict
3 Compulsion
2 Deep Analysis
2 Concentrate
2 Upheaval
3 Polluted Delta
2 Darkwater Catacombs
3 Lonely Sandbar
4 Underground River
9 Island
4 Swamp

Sideboard:
4 Duress
2 Callous Oppressor
1 Deep Analysis
1 Concentrate
3 Engineered Plague
1 Mana Short
1 Circular Logic
2 Persuasion

I had a non-Wish Burst and a Cunning Tog deck list prepared for what the metagame looked like - but after my findings, I stuck with the Bursts and no Cunning Wish. But building the deck is another waste of your time, so on with the matches!

(Note: I had all of my opponent's names written down, but I misplaced them on the trip back home. I apologize!)

Round 1 - Goblin Sligh splashing Green
Game 1: This match went just as I had expected: Keep the first swarm of creatures off of the table, and you're in clear for the rest of the game. Force Spike a Goblin Piledriver, Smother a Second, Burst a Goblin Goon and a Blistering Firecat off of the table at the same time and counter them next turn, all while having a 'Tog on the board to hold off attackers and absorbing minor burn. I got knocked down to seven, but Mr. Teeth finished him off. I didn't know what the green mana was for...

Game 2: The splash of green was maindecked for Steely Resolve, but this threat was Spiked on turn 2. The rest turned out just like game one, except the fact that a Plague on turn 4 wiped out his entire army. Needless to say, a Firecat swung at me the next turn. I was knocked down to five with Goons and the like after many turns of land draws - but"Upheaval, 'Tog" came in for the finishing blow.

Final: 2-0, Match 1-0

I was feeling good, and hoped that I could get more rogue decks in the next rounds, dreading having to face R/G in round two. Getting pumped with the appropriate song"Seven Nation Army" by the White Stripes (yes, Knut, I have a soundtrack, too), I faced what turned out to be an interesting match.

Round 2: U/G Madness
Game 1: This would have been mine if it wasn't for a dumb-ass mistake. He goes first and leads with a Basking Rootwalla. Next turn, I Force Spike an Aquamoeba. After that, I Counterspell another one. After that, I Circular Logic one and let a Quiet Speculation resolve.

He's now down to three cards in hand, four lands and a Rootwalla in play and only two Roar of the Wurms in his graveyard. I have a Burst in my hand along with a Compulsion, land, and a Smother. Things are looking great as I draw a Concentrate. I expect him to flash back the Roar - but I still play it safe, dropping Compulsion and say go.

I now realize that I tapped my Underground River and only left three islands untapped. Mistake number one, especially with no counters in hand. He resolves a Wild Mongrel. I go, play a land and a Concentrate, drawing 'Tog. Next turn he plays a Roar, and I Burst it. Next turn I play 'Tog, Smothering the Mongrel as well. In response to the Smother, he pitches a Wonder and a third Roar. The match continues, and I keep the Roars off of the table.

I now have a sizeable graveyard and a bulky hand as well, and after he swings for four with two Rootwallas, I'm suddenly at eight, and I need to finish this off. He leaves two islands untapped, and with no madness outlet or untapped creature on the board, I figure that I can swing with the 'Tog without Upheavaling and dealing with the Rootwallas. I do just that, Compulsioning to get the tog up to killer range, and swing, pumping him all the way, removing my entire graveyard and hand.

Looks like game for me... But wait! Unsummon! I'm screwed!

He knocks me to two the next turn, and after that I resolve an Upheaval, casting a 'Tog as well with room for a measly Logic afterwards. After fighting a good fight, he taps out, and I think I can swing for the fifteen points needed. I swing for fourteen, only needing one more card in the graveyard.

Two dumb plays. At least I can make up for it in game 2.

Game 2: I keep a pretty good hand with two lands, but never see another one until four turns later. I manage to Spike a Mongrel, but after he does nothing but beat me down with a Rootwalla, I play my Oppressor, tapping out while he names Lizard. Next turn he plays a Careful Study, pitching a Wonder and a Roar. I lose all twenty life to that one Rootwalla. I never see my fourth land.

Final: 0-2 Match: 1-1

Little did I know this mana problem would haunt me later. I don't get screwed by the Sandbars; I just don't get anything. What will I face next? I listen to"Is This It?" by The Strokes as I face a match I didn't expect:

Match 3: Three-Color Wake
Note: I have never played against a Wake deck before, so besides a glance at a decklist, I have no idea how they work. All I know is that I must keep Mirari and Mirari's Wake off of the table at all costs. (Actually, traditional wisdom says Compulsion's the engine to hit - The Ferrett)

Game 1: He goes first. We both play nothing but lands for the first six turns after he resolves a Compulsion on turn 2 with no way I can stop it. He packs a hand full of counters, but so do I, and so we fight over a Mirari's Wake on turn 8, which I win. My opponent counters all of my card drawing spells and Ray of Revelations my Compulsion, draining him of counters. He resolves a Wake a little later on despite my effort to stop it, and drops two Exalted Angels on the same turn. I Burst them away, but see them back on the same turn. I have no way to stop them, and I lose game 1.

This guy maindecks as many counters as I do, even more, so this was not a typical Wake match as I would see it.

Game 2: After sideboarding, I clearly took the upper hand with a turn 1 Duress revealing some lands, a Wake, two Logics, and an Angel. I take the Wake, and proceed to get rid of his turn 2 Compulsion as well. He counters all of my draw spells, as mentioned before - and when he tries to cast a Wake, I counter it and he is only left with two Force Spikes, which I can easily pay. He eventually casts a Mirari and then a Wake, which I can't stop. I count his used counters, and lo! I find that he only has one Counterspell, one Force Spike, and one Circular Logic left in his deck! He has one card in hand, and I have a 'Tog on the board from a few turns before. I draw a Logic, then resolve an Upheaval and a 'Tog... And he concedes before I can use it.

He said that if he tapped his mana differently after Compulsioning for the Logic he found he would have had the game... But I showed him the Logic I had, and we shuffled for game 3.

Game 3: I Duress him first turn, revealing two lands, two Wakes, two Logics, and a Cunning Wish. He doesn't draw past two lands until turn 5, and I have three Counterspells backed up in my hand. I resolve a 'Tog easily, and beat him down to thirteen before I swing for the kill.

Final: 2-1 Match: 2-1

I was surprised that Wake didn't give me a real hard time, but since game 3 wasn't really a fight on his behalf, I force myself not to take Wake for granted. In the end, this is what brings me down. I don't have time for a theme song as the pairings are posted shortly.

Match 4: G/W Threshold/Beasts? (Monastery Control - The Ferrett)
Game 1: I go first. I didn't know how to take this deck, but on turn 2 I used Blood on his Birds of Paradise and then Spiked a Wild Mongrel (I did that a lot that day). Turn 3, I have a mana issue with only two Sandbars in hand, so I play one and say go. He drops an Anurid Brushhopper, which I try to Smother, but he evades by pitching a land and a Mongrel. I draw, playing my second Sandbar. I say go, and he plays a Elephant Guide on the 'Hopper. I cast a Burst, and he recasts it on the same turn. I draw a Concentrate and use it out of pure desperation, drawing an Underground River and a Innocent Blood. I play the Blood using the River, and he dodges it by discarding down to one card. I get hit for three, and he plays a Nantuko Monastery. I draw into a Deep Analysis, and with nothing else but two Upheavals in my hand and five mana, I cast the Deep, getting two counters. I say go and get hit for seven. I draw and flashback the Analysis since I'm at six life anyway, and get nothing. I can't believe that I drew such terrible lands and so few of them!

Game 2: I lasted for longer that I should have, since I was stuck at two lands for the first six turns. I Blood a Bird, Spike a Mongrel, Spike an Elephant Guide, Smother a Brushhopper (which he evades), Burst a Hopper and Blood a Brushhopper away. After that last Blood, he is left with a Ravenous Baloth, and I have finally reached three lands, with the third land being a Sandbar. He hits me for four, I draw another land and am dying to get rid of that Baloth with a Persuasion that's been in my hand since turn 1. I play a 'Tog with backup for a counter, but he does nothing but activate a Glory he pitched in his grave and swing. I draw the fifth land, but with three mana open for a Glory activation, Persuasion will get me nowhere.

Games: 0-2 Match: 2-2

How can I draw so few lands? I shuffled and randomized my deck between the match and after the match, and I could never get it back to an evenly distributed spell and land count for the rest of the day. I don't know if it's me or my choice of running three Sandbars in a twenty-five land deck, but before dropping,"Say It Ain't So" by Weezer gets me to keep playing despite my extreme depression and into round 5.

Round 5: Three-Color Wake (Again!)
I can't believe this! After drawing so few lands the last games, the one match where you need to draw a constant stream of lands comes to me next?! Why can't I play R/G Beats, the deck I metagamed this deck so hard around to beat? I just hope that I can get lands this game...

Game 1: I draw nothing but lands, and only see three Counterspells and a Concentrate throughout the course of the match. I fend off beasts as long as I can with the multiple Bursts and Smothers I have, but I know that I can't win this fight with as much of a mana advantage that he has. If I win game 2, I need as much time as possible for game 3, so I concede and sideboard in eight cards.

Game 2: I am a little short on mana, missing two land drops early on, but have enough counters to prevent a Wake from hitting once he hits nine mana. I play a couple Analysis and their flashback costs, but are countered 3 out of the 4 times. He resolves a Wake after I am left with all but two Force Spikes, and he passes it over to me. I draw, play my land... And then see somebody watching the match knock his Coke bottle all over my opponent's deck.

I'm dead serious. All over his graveyard, seeping into his slips, nearly saturating his removed-from-game pile and narrowly missing my deck. I was in as much shock as he was, as he had multiple Wrath of Gods and Cunning Wishes that were nearly destroyed. Fortunately, only commons and uncommons were ruined, and the expensive cards got by without any damage. The head judge gave us a ten-minute extension after we wiped off his table and he proxied his cards, and continued play.

Both he and I lost focus on the game and were panicked about our cards and the remainder of the match. The rest was a blur, and before I know it, I'm facing down a Mirari along with the Wake on his side of the table. The only solution I see from the growing horde of elephants is to resolve an Upheaval. I topdeck a Duress, which I play to his hand of three, knowing that one of them is a Cunning Wish; he Lapses it with one land left over. I now have seven mana and just an Upheaval in my hand and a 'Tog on the board. I rationalize that if he had to Lapse a Duress that he'll see again the next turn, he doesn't have a real Counterspell in his hand. He doesn't have enough mana to Wish for a counter, and if he has a Spike I can pay it. I play the Upheaval... And he reveals a Counterspell.

He played perfectly despite the incident, and I go on to lose my third match of the day. I wish I had found that Mana Short.

Games: 0-2 Match: 2-3

My deck did poorly yet again in the last match, and if I had the hands I had against Wake the first time, it could have easily been mine. I decided to stay around for as long as I could bear to - but at this point, I faced the worst matchups and worst hands that I had ever dealt with in my entire playtesting with 'Tog. I've got a splitting headache, pondering what went wrong, and I start the next match just wanting to get the hell out of there. I listen to Radiohead's"How To Disappear Completely": another suitable song for the moment. On to match 6, and it better be R/G...Because if I'm going to go 3-4, I'm going to take that deck down with me!

Match 6: U/W Slide
Game 1: When he played a Slide without any mountains on his side, I knew that I could have this matchup in the bag. It was harder than expected, since after a few short Counterspell battles over a few Exalted Angels, he cast three Healing Salves and cycled three Renewed Faiths successfully. I resolved a 'Tog and waited until he couldn't Slide it out anymore, attacking for the win with a huge graveyard, pumping the 'Tog to deal well over thirty points of damage in a single blow.

Game 2: I got arrogant and confident, and teamed up with a crappy day, these two things lead up to disaster. I let a Mystic Crusader resolve, overlooking its protection from black. I couldn't block with a 'Tog, and I couldn't find the Burst I needed to get rid of this threat. I saw my life slip away three points at a time while awaiting a much-needed Upheaval or Burst that I never got.

Game 3: Time ran out on the first turn, and it turned out to be a draw.

Games: 1-1-1 Match: 2-3-1

I never faced R/G, a deck that I finally was able to beat before Regionals, never faced the surprisingly-abundant Reanimator match that I put the Plagues in my sideboard for, and never faced a real far-out rogue deck that I tried to round my deck out against. It just goes to show you that sometimes it's just not your lucky day. I made some terrible plays and had my deck give out on me, but I stuck with it and still lost. Well, somebody has to lose for others to win, and I guess that 'Tog just isn't reliable enough this year.

I talked to other people leaving as I left, and I found that they were all playing either Squirrel Opps, 'Tog, Wake or Slide - the four major control decks that should do well in the environment I scoped out. All of them only faced one true aggro deck, and despite the outcome, faced other control decks throughout the tournament that were based almost purely on topdecks and your opening hand. The strategy of chess with the luck of poker: That's Magic. There'll always be the local group for me to raise my self-esteem again.

So what can a loser learn from Regionals besides faults or imperfections in their deck? Don't give up, research more on the metagame, don't believe but half of it and be expecting anything that might happen. Keep trying, and learn from other peoples' mistakes. Use mine as an example.

Marshall Terry
Feedback is appreciated: especially on why my deck dealt hands as bad as it did.
guitardr@iwon.com