So Many Insane Plays – A StarCityGames.com Power 9 Tournament Report: 5th Place

After a 2-1-3 finish in Day 1, I was faced with the perennial question: continue to play what I’ve been playing or try something else? I could revert back to Tyrant Oath, or tune up my GAT list, or play something else entirely. Tyrant Oath seemed automatically off the table since the Painter’s Servant deck seemed to hand it its head on a platter.

My chief complaint was that I simply couldn’t finish games on time with GAT. On Day 1, I had three unintentional draws. In essentially all three of those draws, I had a winning board state or was on the very precipice of victory. This problem is not new.

At SCG Chicago, last October, my Day 2 record was 4-1-2, with one unintentional draws. On Day 2, my record was identical, 4-1-2, with two unintentional draws, but another one that was avoided because Nat scooped to me. In 14 rounds of Magic, that’s 28.5% of my matches drawing unintentionally.

The more stunning statistic is that six of my rounds went to time or would have gone to time. That doesn’t mean that those matches were draws, but it does mean that we played into turns. That’s an astounding 42.8% of my matches going to time. When we add in SCG Richmond Day 1, that percentage shoots up even higher. Four of my six matches went to turns. Out of 20 rounds of magic, fifty percent of my matches were going to time.

I thought back to GenCon — not one of my matches went to time at the Vintage Championship. I couldn’t understand what was going on. Last year, I just assumed that it was the fact that GroAtog was a harder deck to pilot in a metagame that was better prepared for it. This year, I knew something was wrong.

I wanted to know if I was playing slowly. I thought carefully about it and concluded that I was not. The only thing that was left was this. Since GenCon, I have been carefully notating, play-by-play, every match so that I can report them in my articles. The problem was that I have developed a short-hand for the plays so that the notation really takes no more time than Chess notation. It couldn’t be the act of transcription that was causing me to go to time. And it wasn’t.

Only after careful reflection did I understand why I was going to time. The process of transcription was diverting mental energy and my focus. Every time someone made a play, I was moving to notate it and, what’s more, check the accuracy of my plays. It wasn’t the physical writing that sucked up time. It was the distraction.

It would be like taking the SAT but looking at your watch every 20 seconds. The cumulative effect is devastating.

My brain was, in effect, multi-tasking. It wasn’t that I was taking so much longer per play, although I was taking longer, but the problem was that I wasn’t fully focused on the game at hand. I wasn’t sucked into the game and bearing down upon it the full weight of my experience and calculating power.

I decided that I would take no notes whatsoever aside from life totals, storm count, and hands that I had seen with Duress. The effect was stunning. I went from having over fifty percent of my Day 1 matches go to turns, and a full 50% of my previous three SCG Tour^® nament matches go to time with a whopping 7 unintentional draws to no unintentional draws.

Even more significantly, none of my matches went to time. There were no additional turns played. I had become used to living and dying in additional turns by this point. The minor changes I made to my decklist could not have possibly created such a profound difference. The causal factor was too obvious for serious dispute. Taking play-by-play notes had sucked my focus and the cumulative effect was a much longer game.

I could feel the difference. It wasn’t simply the time that mattered, but I had a much better command over game board state. The play-by-plays not only distracted me, but it also drew my attention to the wrong elements of the game, such as which turn it was or what tactics had most recently transpired, instead of helping me inhabit in the mental space that existed at any given point between two players and more quickly puzzle out the correct play. With that focus came the ethereal feeling of empowerment. It isn’t a feeling that I am unbeatable or invincible, but the recognition that I am a likely contender to win this tournament, which exists just at the edge of consciousness.

I would play GAT, but I would make a few small changes. I thought all evening about what could go into the Berserk slot. People suggested a range of cards, but none seemed to make sense. Just as I was on the brink of falling asleep in my hotel room, a concatenation of thoughts criss-crossed my mind and the puzzle was solved. If I cut the Psychatog for Empty the Warrens, I would have a combo finish that wouldn’t need Berserk. Then I could cut the Berserk for a Misdirection, which was the card I wanted to fit in. I wouldn’t have to add Mox Ruby if I just cut the second basic Island for a Volcanic Island. Thus, my deck was set. I woke up that morning and fortunately recalled my mental notes from the darkness before sleep. I made those changes before showering and heading down for a satisfying brunch.

Here’s my deck:

Round 1: Tyrant Oath

Game 1:

I arrived at the tournament site, registered my deck, and sat down for the first round. I greeted my opponent, started to pile shuffle, and something was amiss. My five piles came up short by one card. I counted my deck out, ten cards at a time and, again, I counted 59 cards. This was the first time this has ever happened to me.

I stood up and called a judge. The head judge came over and informed me that I had 3 minutes to present my deck. I told him that it would be unlikely that I would figure out the missing card in that time.

Nonetheless, I tried. I started to sort out my deck face down, then quickly realized that made little sense. On my decklist registration sheet, I had the deck organized into four-ofs (32), singletons (10), and mana (18). I quickly counted up my mana and counted 18 cards. I moved to the singletons and counted 9. Aha! I knew I was missing a singleton, but which one? I saw Ancestral, Fastbond, the tutors… what could it be? Hmmm. Of course! I was missing Echoing Truth. The judge brought me a sharpie and a land and I quickly scrawled out Echoing Truth and the mana cost “1U” and sleeved it up and presented. The judge nonetheless awarded me a game loss since almost four minutes had elapsed. I didn’t contest this judgment. I skeptically inquired if that much time really had elapsed, and that was that. The judge informed us that we were to proceed to game 2 without sideboarding. We agreed.

Game 2:

I kept a one-land hand and opened the game with Island, Ponder. Seeing no lands, I shuffled my library. He opened with Orchard, Mox, giving me key information. I topdecked a land and played Time Walk. On my Time Walk turn upkeep, I played Mystical Tutor for Ancestral Recall. I drew Ancestral and played it. He Forced me, I Forced him again, and he had yet another Force, countering my Recall.

After that skirmish, both of us were spent, but I was playing a deck that had fewer mana sources and more business. He used his Orchard to try and dig for Oaths with Brainstorms and Ponders to no avail, while I attacked him with two tokens to 16 and then, after he did one point of damage to himself, to 13, to 11, and then to 8… and then after he tapped his Orchard yet again, from 8 to 4. At that point, no Oath could save him.

Game 3:

Here was my opening hand:

Underground Sea
Force of Will
Seal of Primordium
Merchant Scroll
Brainstorm
Ponder
Gush

Stu began with turn 1 Oath. Fortunately, I had Force of Will for once, while he did not. Moreover, I had Seal of Primordium in my opening hand. The problem was that I didn’t have a Mox to play it on turn 1. He would have gotten to activate Oath had I not had Force. I played cantrips and lands. On his third turn, he floated mana and played Gush.

At that moment, I felt that the match might slip his way, but my opponent’s rules competence and tactical experience seemed to cover a strategic confusion on his part. My opponent knew how to play Vintage, but he maybe didn’t see the bigger picture. He could play just as well as I could in terms of the mechanics of Vintage, but I think he couldn’t see the forest for the trees.

He just discarded two lands and passed the turn.

From that point on, I took control of the game with draw spells and multiple Duresses. He never got back in the game. My board development and draw kicked in while he sat there lamely. His poorly timed Gush practically handed me the game.

Round 2: Ray Robillard with Staxless Stax

Poor Ray. We were both pretty pumped about our rematch. I faced Ray in the quarter finals of the Vintage World Championships, and narrowly escaped.

I won best two of three in (rock) lobster, paper (tiger), scissors (lizard), and elected to go first.

My opening hand was:

3 Land
Fastbond
Gush
Ponder
Quirion Dryad

Here’s where the Gushbond engine truly shines today.

My turn 1 featured:

Tropical Island into Fastbond
Underground Sea
Gush, drawing two Merchant Scrolls
Replay the lands, Scroll for Gush, play Gush.

At this point, I was pretty much able to just go all in.

I played Quirion Dryad, then Scrolled for Gush, Gushed again, and continued to combo out.

I played all four Gushes and then Time Walked. I then untapped, played Demonic Tutor for Yawgmoth’s Will and played it. I managed to grow the Dryad to 20/20 while hovering just under 5 life. I swung in for lethal damage before he even got a turn.

I sideboarded out 4 Duresses and 3 Thoughtseize for my suite of 3 Islands and 4 bounce spells. I couldn’t believe it, but Ray mulliganed to 4. In any case, I had turn 1 Fastbond again after he led with Ancient Tomb and a Mox Ruby.

My opening hand was:

Polluted Delta
Underground Sea
Force of Will
Ponder
Gush
Thoughtseize
Yawgmoth’s Will

I felt that I could potentially just combo out here, but there was no urgency. I played Thoughtseize and saw an anemic start, taking Ray’s Gorilla Shaman. I began to combo out on turn 3, showed ray my Yawgmoth’s Will, and he scooped.

Round 3: Nick Coss with Hulk Flash

Nick ended up in third place in this tournament. Here’s what he played:

I knew Nick was on Hulk Flash and was not happy that he won the die roll. Fortunately, I knew I had tremendous advantages in this match. I had 8 Duresses and Leylines post-board.

Game 1:

Nick led with Island.

I led with Polluted Delta into Underground Sea, Thoughtseize.

Here’s what I saw:

Summoner’s Pact
Summoner’s Pact
Pact of Negation
Pact of Negation
Flash
Body Snatcher

Terrifying! I took the Flash, obviously. Apparently Nick did not have an Elvish Spirit Guide maindeck, otherwise he could have stomped me already. Nick took a risk keeping a one-land hand. He did not draw another land on turn 2, and simply said ‘draw, go.’

Two turns later, I Duressed him again and saw Flash and Merchant Scroll! I took the Flash, of course. He then drew a land and played Merchant Scroll. I Pondered, Gushed, and found another Duress, snagging his Ancestral Recall this time. From here, I was able to keep control of the game just long enough to win with a Dryad, which killed him within about three turns. The Duresses helped me keep control over a game that Red Elemental Blast would probably not have been able to win.

Game 2:

I struggled with trying to figure out what to board out. I brought in four Leylines and sideboarded out, I believe, Empty the Warrens, Ponder, a Quirion Dryad, and a Merchant Scroll.

I thought about my hand. It didn’t have Leyline nor did it have Force of Will, but it did have double Thoughtseize and a powerful assortment of supporting cards. It was a risk, but I decided to keep it.

My opponent led with Tropical Island and gave me a turn! Relief!

I drew Mox Jet, so I could double Thoughtseize on turn 1.

I played Mox Jet and Thoughtseized him and saw:

Flash
Merchant Scroll
Underground Sea
Reveillark
Protean Hulk
Protean Hulk

This was a tough call. I entertained the notion of Thoughtseizing him again to take both Hulks. On the other hand, if he drew a Hulk or Brainstormed into a Summoner’s Pact, he could try to win on the spot. It was a tough call, but I stripped away his Scroll and his Flash. Over the next few turns, he seemed to draw nothing relevant while I tried to build up a hand. He Thoughtseized me and stripped a counter. I had Scrolled up Ancestral Recall and fired it off.

I played a Quirion Dryad. I Duressed him and saw his hand was still garbage — there wasn’t even anything I could take. He Thoughtseized me again, this time seeing:

Brainstorm
Land
Force of Will

He took my Brainstorm.

On my turn, I drew another Brainstorm, but I wanted to hold up Force of Will. I passed the turn. He topdecked Ponder and played it. I was tempted to counter Ponder, but it didn’t seem worth it. He would see the cards soon enough. His Ponder resolved and a card popped into his hand. He passed the turn.

I untapped and drew Thoughtseize. At this point I thought for a moment. He had seen my hand only two draw steps before. He knew I had Force, but he couldn’t be sure that I had another Blue spell. I surmised that if he saw a Flash, he probably hid it on top of his library. If he had a Flash in hand, the smart play would be to play it on my upkeep, since that would be before I doubled my chance of seeing another Blue spell. He didn’t, so I guessed he didn’t have Flash in hand. I figured that I should hold my Thoughtseize. I played Brainstorm. At that point, he played Flash.

I was stunned. If I had played Thoughtseize, he would have responded with Flash and I would have Forced it, of course. I was somewhat irritated at myself for making the assumption that my opponent wouldn’t be holding Flash if he hadn’t played it on my upkeep. I thought I was holding the trump card in having drawn Brainstorm last turn and having not played it, holding it up for Force of Will, just in case I needed it. I thought I was going to win this game.

Even though I don’t think his play makes the most sense, there are a couple of points to commend it. There were a few possibilities. First of all, I could have drawn a non-Blue spells on the turn after he Thoughtseized me, and then another non-Blue spell. I would have lost under either one of those scenarios. Second, I could have drawn a Blue spell and then a non-Blue spell. That is what happened. Under this scenario, his best option is to wait until I play the Blue spell. But the risk is that I draw a Blue spell on the second draw. The third scenario is that I draw a non-Blue spell and then a Blue spell.
Here, the right play is to play Flash on my upkeep… right? Not necessarily. If I go to play the Blue spell, then he can get me in response. Although I don’t think his play was the most logical, there is a logic to it.

He got me.

We shuffle up for game 3, and this one wasn’t even close. My notes indicate that my life total fell rapidly, suggesting that I was Gushbonding out. I also know that he drew garbage. At one point I Duressed and saw Protean Hulk, Mogg Fanatic, and an Island.

Round 4: Ben Kowal, former SCG champion, playing Tyrant Oath

Ben ended up in 7th place. Here’s what he played:

I was pleased to win the die roll. I was also pleased to draw Misdirection in my opening hand. It was much better than a Berserk would have been.

I open, predictably and happily, with Duress, and see:

Polluted Delta
Underground Sea
Mox Sapphire
Mox Pearl
Force of Will
Time Walk
Mystical Tutor

Ben described his hand as weak. I would not say so. Topdecking half the cards in his deck turn this into a solid hand. My Duress is what makes it weak. Worse for him, Duress does double duty here. It provides me with critical information while stripping away a good card. I take the Force of Will, which should be a signal that I have
a trick up my sleeve.

He predictably walks into my trap:

Mox, Land, Time Walk, upkeep Mystical, Ancestral Recall into my Misdirection (pitching Echoing Truth).

Had I not had the Misdirection or a Force, I almost certainly would have taken the Mystical Tutor.

You would think that the game would be over in short order at that point. The problem is that Ben has seen one additional card – a card he drew on his first turn. Once I Misdirected the Ancestral, he popped a Delta for Tropical Island and played Oath of Druids.

This was quite a dilemma for me. I knew the rest of his hand and I recognized this danger. I was simply hoping that he wouldn’t topdeck one of the few cards he needed to get him back in this game. That’s precisely what he did. You see, the problem is that I pitched Echoing Truth to Misdirection. I had no way to bounce or remove the Oath. Although I had a huge tactical advantage, his Oath gave him inevitability. I would have to beat him in a very short window of opportunity. The good news was that his Ancestral drew me into my own. Timing would be critical here.

I had the tools to race his quest for an Orchard, but I needed overwhelming combo power to a) generate enough storm and card advantage to b) find and play a lethal Empty the Warrens and c) play Time Walk. Even with the card power I had in hand, I doubt I had the ability to pull that off even though I have access to Yawgmoth’s Will. So I waited.

I play some land and drew a few more cards. He drew some cards. I kept him off balance by Duressing him on consecutive turns, seeing an Island and then a Tidespout Tyrant. Finally, three turns after I Ancestraled myself, I decided to go for it. I had seen his hand save one card and I had a Force of Will in case he’d topdecked Force (which he
could hardcast).

You see, I wasn’t just racing against the time it took him to find Orchard – I was almost as concerned about the possibility that he may find an Extirpate. I had to go for it. I played Fastbond and just Gushed, Gushed, Pondered, Etc. I played a lot of spells, but didn’t see Empty the Warrens or Mystical Tutor. The storm continued to build and my life continued to dwindle. Finally, I had to Scroll for Mystical Tutor and play it. I tutored up Empty the Warrens and cast Brainstorm to draw it. Ironically, I also drew Time Walk. Unfortunately, my life was too low. I played three lands and a Mox, and that sent me to 1 life. I cast Empty the Warrens with about 17 storm while Time Walk sat lamely in hand.

Ben got to Oath, and most of his library flopped onto his graveyard. The good news for me was that Ben thought that Flash of Insight was garbage. If Ben had been running Flash of Insight, he would have won game 1. I had kept his hand pared down, so the only chance he would have to win would be to draw something amazing in his draw step. He did not. He Reclaimed some broken spells into his deck, but it ultimately didn’t matter. He had a Tidespout Tyrant in play and had to pass the turn. He scooped up and we shuffled for game 2.

I brought into my two Seal of Primoridums.

In game 2, I had a one of the power hands. Ben’s hand was a mix of gas and mana, but my hand was just better, mostly thanks to Duress.

Ben opened the game with Land, Ponder. I opened the game with Mox Jet, Duress, seeing:

Forbidden Orchard
Polluted Delta
Underground Sea
Brainstorm
Ponder

I debated my options but took the Brainstorm. I then played Underground Sea and Ancestral Recall. Ben played Ponder, but I was too far ahead. I kept him off balance with Duress effects and countermagic, holding Seal of Primordium in case he eventually found an Oath. He didn’t and I finished him off with Dryads.

At this point, I’m 4-0 and practical a lock for Top 8. Unfortunately, there are only three people with the same record, so I get paired down with Eric Becker, who is 3-0-1. Eric is known outside of Vintage for helping develop Paul Cheon Grand Prix winning X Level Blue deck. Eric is playing a homebrew he thought up in the shower that morning. It’s basically a Bluer variant of Vinny Forino’s UB deck that I faced at the Vintage Champs last year.

Round 5: Eric Becker with UB Bob Tendrils

I offered a draw, but Eric would still have to win out. If he lost this game, he would still have to win the next round. So a draw or a loss was almost the same.

I’m not exactly sure who won the die roll, but I think Eric and I both mulliganed. Eric probably led, since when I saw his hand it looked like this:

Necropotence
Sundering Titan
Tendrils of Agony
Dark Confidant
Mystical Tutor

Eric was stuck on one land, and I don’t think it was a Blue mana source. I believe I took Mystical Tutor. Based upon my fading recollection, here is what happened. Eric drew a card and passed. I played something relevant and passed again. He Demonic Consultationed for Dark Ritual. He found the Dark Ritual about 10 cards down and then went for Necropotence. My previous Duress alerted me to this plan, and I was ready for it. I Forced his Necro. He drew a land a turn later and played Bob, but by that point I answered with Dryad and started growing it. I had a 5/5 Dryad within a turn with Ponder, Gush, and Duress. I waited another turn to grow him again, but with a 6/6 I sent him from 12 to 6 to 0 life.

Game 2:

I have no recollection of this game except that Eric had a long Brainstorm and that ultimately the game was very one-sided in my favor. The match ended with plenty of time left in the round, and I sat down to organize my deck for the Top 8 deck check.

Round 6: Jerry Yang with Workshops

We drew.

My only game loss in the swiss, aside from the penalty game loss in round 1, came from Nick Coss, and was entirely avoidable had I just Thoughtseized him first. The loss in Top 8 could have been avoided as well…

Quarter Finals: Anthony Grasso with Gush Tendrils

Anthony and I faced each other the day before. He had obviously decided on a different weapon for Day 2. I had seen him face an earlier opponent, so I knew what he was playing and was confident that I could dispatch him. I was more concerned about having to face Jerry Yang in the semi-finals, until I realized that Jerry was in a different bracket. I honestly figured that it would probably be a straight shot to the finals. I recognized that this is Vintage, and a slight mistake can cost a match in a format in which anything or anyone can win.

Anthony unfortunately won the die roll, and elected to go first.

I think I surprised myself, not simply my opponents, by the fact that I kept a no-land hand. It was a bold move to open a quarter-finals match. I decided to keep a hand with no land, but it had a Mox Jet, Duress, and a Force of Will. I reasoned as follows. I could draw any of my 17 remaining mana sources and make plays, or any one of my remaining 7 Duresses or even a Vampiric Tutor and make plays. With that, I figured that I had at least a 50% chance of drawing a relevant card in the first two turns. I was also on the draw, so I could open turn 1 with just Jet, Duress, but I’d likely be able to play a land on turn 2. And if I Pondered or Brainstormed on turn 2, there is a good chance I’d be able to play another Duress effect that turn as well.

Unfortunately, I didn’t draw a mana source in my first two turns, but on turn 3 I drew the best mana source of all: Black Lotus. Oddly enough (or perhaps not) it seemed as if I had lost little in that delay. I broke the Lotus for UUU and Pondered into a land, Brainstormed and so on.

On turn 4, I played another land, Mox and passed.

On turn 5, Anthony played Thoughtseized on me. I responded with Brainstorm. I thought about it for a while, but then decided to hide Duress on top with Force of Will below that. My reasoning was that unless he took the Dryad, I could Duress him next turn and Gush in a pinch and be able to Force. He wouldn’t be able to Duress it away.
He saw:

Quirion Dryad
Gush
Gush
Gush
Merchant Scroll

To my surprise, he took the Dryad.

It didn’t matter though, as he played the last card I expected him to play: Timetwister. I shuffled my hand and graveyard into my library, a bit dismayed that the tiny graveyard I had begun to accumulate would be washed away, as if it had never been, but pacified by the realization that my opponent’s hard work would be undone as well.

For a deck with 8 Duress for disruption, the greatest fear is that my opponent would simply draw the cards he needs to win while I am sitting on cards that are not Force of Will, drawn through the Timetwister.

Imagine my relief when my opponent basically did nothing. He may have played a Ponder or a Brainstorm, he may have not. I don’t recall nor did I notate. Whatever he did, it was of little consequence.

I untapped and began to think about how to utilize my new hand, how I may want to modulate it based upon the aggressiveness of my opponent’s hand, how to maximize my efficiency, and so on. Many of these operations now congeal well below consciousness.

I decided to open with a Brainstorm. I subconsciously realized that despite having a Duress in hand, if I Brainstormed into another Duress effect, that would influence my decision about what to Duress away. Indeed, I Brainstormed into another Duress and two more mana, put two lands back, played Mox Jet and cast Duress.

In response, he played Vampiric Tutor. At this point, it was pretty obvious what he had sought. With only one Sea in play, he wouldn’t be getting Necropotence. Yawgmoth’s Will was pointless at this stage of the game, with a very shallow graveyard. I put him on Ancestral Recall.

I saw:

Force of Will
Force of Will
Misdirection
Tendrils of Agony
Underground Sea

Despite my heightened focus, I overlooked the obvious. I took a Force of Will and then played Thoughtseize. Immediately I realized my error. So did Anthony. He Misdirected Thoughtseize to me. I decided to Gush in response. It didn’t help. I drew Brainstorm and a land. I could Brainstorm, but that would defeat the point if I didn’t draw two Blue spells. My hand was:

Yawgmoth’s Will
Brainstorm
Force of Will
2 lands

I thought about it and decided to take my Brainstorm, hoping that a Yawgmoth’s Will could bring me back in the game. Unfortunately, he Ancestral Recalled himself, played Demonic Tutor, Dark Ritual, Black Lotus, and then Yawgmoth’s Will.

Game 2:

Anthony mulliganed to 6. I knew from the way the last game went that I’d probably stomp him this game. Although it wasn’t quite as lopsided as I expected, it wasn’t close either.

Following the intriguing suggestion of Brian DeMars in another context at another time, I decided to sideboard in just one Leyline of the Void. The reason for the singleton Leyline is as follows. The problem with multiple Leylines is that they are terrible draws after you draw your opening hand. With one, you have a low chance of drawing dead when it counts, but if it shows up in your opening hand, it will serve its function. Well, it worked. I opened with Leyline.

Anthony’s deck is pretty typical of Gush Tendrils decks that I’ve seen. A big part of his game plan is to resolve Yawgmoth’s Will. If I can Echoing Truth either the Empty the Warrens or his Tinker target, then Leyline can pretty much deal with Tendrils by keeping Yawgmoth’s Will offline.

My plan worked perfectly. He played land, go. I Duressed him on turn 1 and saw:

Underground Sea
Gush
Lotus Petal
Merchant Scroll
Merchant Scroll

From there, he did nothing for turns. Eventually, he managed to set up a Tinker. I was frightened that he would Tinker up Sundering Titan, so I positioned myself to be able to Gush in response and then to tutor up Echoing Truth before he could kill me. Well, it didn’t really matter. He Tinkered up Darksteel Colossus and I immediately bounced it. I kept him off balance with Duress effects until I could combo out myself.

Game 3:

My opening hand this game was utterly ridiculous:

Mox Sapphire
Mox Emerald
Underground Sea
Brainstorm
Fastbond
Gush
Yawgmoth’s Will

I couldn’t believe my good fortune.

I Brainstormed on turn 1, and imagine my surprise when I saw:

Gush
Mox Jet
Force of Will

Suddenly, my jubilation melted into anxiety. I had no other lands! I didn’t need or want these blasted Moxen! I needed to Gush out here!

My fears were well founded. Anthony opened the game with Black Lotus, Land, and double Tarmogoyf.

He passed the turn back to me. I lamely drew a card I had already seen and passed the turn back.

He swung at me for 4 damage, sending me to 16, and passed the turn.

I drew a card I had already seen and passed the turn again.

Unfortunately, on his third turn, Anthony drew a fetchland. He played it and broke it for another Underground Sea. He then swung at me with two slightly larger Goyfs and sent me to 10 life.

I was in panic mode. I figured I might have one more turn. If he swings at me for 6 damage, I’ll be at four. I decided to play Fastbond. If it got down, then I’d have more mana on my last chance turn to play other spells. That plan doesn’t necessarily make a lot of sense. My best bet, in reality, is probably just to play Yawgmoth’s Will and Brainstorm again, hoping to hit another land and then try to Gush out.

I played Fastbond anyway and he Force of Willed it, countering it. I let his Force resolve. I quickly realized the error I had made in playing Fastbond instead of Yawgmoth’s Will. With Fastbond in the graveyard his Goyfs were now 4/5. He untapped and played a Sorcery spell and then I was dead. His Goyfs swung me from 10 to zero in no time flat.

Even had my Yawgmoth’s Willed Brainstorm shown me a land, it still probably wouldn’t have worked out. I could Gush a few times, but I’d still be facing two very large Goyfs. I’d need to not suck up enough life to Fastbond to put me under a lethal swing, and I’d probably need to find Empty the Warrens or a pair of Dryads and grow them large enough to survive combat.

If there is a lesson here, it’s not to get cocky with good cards. Had I not been blinded by the jewelry in hand, I may have been a bit more cautious with my Brainstorm and more aggressive in trying to replay it with Yawgmoth’s Will. I also was blindsided by double Goyf on turn 1. Anthony got me by surprise, and it paid off. But it wasn’t a threat that I couldn’t handle. Dryads are larger than Goyfs five days a week.

I congratulated Anthony and went back to my hotel to take a shower. I later enjoyed watching the finals match between Anthony and Brian.

I’d like to turn to a few issues that continuously arose during the course of the tournament.

No-Land Hands

The general rule has always been: if you have a no land hand, you can’t keep that hand. Perhaps I should be less rigid in my mulligan decisions. True, it’s been a useful rule. A hand with land can operate, it can move its game plan forward. A hand without land is a hand that can do very little. However, GroAtog does present some special considerations.

First of all, unlike most historical Blue-based decks, it is a deck that is designed to operate on one mana source, even though Gush requires two lands to play. With 8 Duress effects and 8 Brainstorm effects, GAT can easily run a conveyor belt of plays off one land. If my first two turns simply involve me playing Duress, I am completely comfortable with that. The fact of Gush means that GroAtog is used to running on few lands in play, even in the mid-game, when it may have Gushed most of its lands into its hand.

Second, the total payoff could potentially be bigger from just keeping an otherwise-powerful no-land hand. A six-land hand with one land is a functional five-card hand. A no-land hand that draws a land in the first two turns is a seven-card hand that is temporarily non-functional. It’s not entirely clear which is better. If it’s game 1 of an unknown match, the risk is high simply because information matters and your game plan offers opportunities to gain further information as you interact with your opponent. If you have already won game 1, the risks are lower. You’ll be on the draw, and missing a turn 1 land drop won’t be that painful if you make your turn 2 land drop. Moreover, you’ve already won a game so the cost of losing game 2 is probably not terribly high, and the risk is not that much higher, if at all, than if you mulligan to 6. Of course, there are some offsetting considerations that need not be mentioned as they are part of the convention wisdom.

In the future, I think I will allow myself to be more open to the possibility — at least with GroAtog — of doing what the convention wisdom has long condemned — keeping no-land hands.

Playing With Ponder

Having now played Ponder at many large tournaments, I have developed a basic rubric for its usage. One key issue that repeatedly arises is this… which card do you play on turn 1: Ponder or Brainstorm? Which is the proper play? I think I can now give a safe answer to that question or, at least, give you a framework for deciding for yourself.

After the events of SCG Richmond, while hanging out with some of the Vintage crowd, Owen Turtenwald described Ponder as a terrible card partly because it only gets you one card for one card. To evaluate the scope of his claim, I asked him about Brainstorm, which also only gets you +1 card for one card. Owen responded with the correct answer that Brainstorm is a great card and is different from Ponder because it trades bad cards for good cards, and the bad cards can then be shuffled away. So it is obviously more than just card advantage considerations that determine the quality of these cantrips.

But then I started thinking about cards like Impulse. Impulse was long considered a good card, used in decks in virtually all formats, including Pro Tour winning decks. Ponder has been, at least in terms of its ability to dig, a new and (in my view) improved Impulse. I frankly think that Owen is wrong. I think that Ponder’s ability to dig three cards deep for one Blue mana puts it in a special class shared by only two other spells. If Ponder isn’t being used in other formats, I think that is less a statement about the strength of Ponder than the particular landscape of those formats. Ponder’s digging power is particularly useful when you are assembling two-card combos. Its digging power loses value if one of two things is true: first, if the tempo advantage of having an important card on turn 2 matters very little, or if there are few shuffle effects in the format. Before the printing of Fetchlands, Brainstorm saw almost no play in Vintage, if you can believe that. Obviously, if Vintage players could turn back the clock, I would have built 4 Merchant Scroll decks with 4 Brainstorms back in 2002 and 2001 and won gobs of Power, but alas, I have no time machine. For that reason, I can see Brainstorm not being used very much even in certain Standard formats, despite the fact that Owen describes it, but not Ponder, as a great card.

That discussion should highlight at least some of the differences between the two cards that inform the decision over which to play. Here is my basic rule of thumb:

If your hand is great, I would play Ponder. If your hand is bad, I would play Brainstorm.

Let me tease that out a bit.

Take this hand:

Tropical Island
Underground Sea
Polluted Delta
Mox Emerald
Ponder
Brainstorm
Force of Will (or Gush)

This hand is not bad, but it’s not great either. With this hand, I would play Brainstorm. You can trade some useless mana spells for some better business right now. I would play Brainstorm and then plan to shuffle the chaff away next turn.

But consider this hand (assume you were on the draw):

Tropical Island
Underground Sea
Ponder
Brainstorm
Gush
Merchant Scroll
Force of Will
Quirion Dryad

There is really no chaff here. You have pretty much everything you want or need for the first three turns of the game. I would play Ponder here. You don’t need to trade chaff for anything (if you don’t like Dryads in your opening hand, imagine the Dryad is a Duress).

So, my basic rule of thumb is this: if you have at least one card that you would like to shuffle back or don’t need, Brainstorm gets better. But if your hand is pretty much set and you are using Ponder to dig not so much for specific tactical components as just to potentially draw you into restricted cards like Black Lotus, then Ponder is better. Since most of my hands are hands that I’m happy with, I tend to play Ponder first.

A further consideration that makes it more likely that I’ll play Ponder is the fact that Brainstorm is a great card to follow Gush. After returning two lands to your hand, you won’t need to be holding three lands for very long.

Playing With Thoughtseize

Much like the decision of whether to play Ponder or Brainstorm, I have developed a rubric for also deciding when to play Duress over Thoughtseize and vice versa. A lot of Vintage decks today play with creatures: Dark Confidants, Quirion Dryads, Goblin Welders, Trinket Mages, Tarmogoyfs, and Triskelions, among many others, litter the format.

Since Thoughtseize takes any card, whereas Duress only takes spells, the convention wisdom is that Thoughtseize should clearly be played first or on the blind game 1, turn 1 scenario. I don’t agree.

Creatures are by far the weakest type of Vintage card. Creatures are slow, inflexible, and underpowered. Despite having a restricted list that tops out around 50 cards, there are no creatures on that list. Every other major card type can be found there. The creatures that are played in Vintage are the cream of the crop. Even then, they pale in comparison to everything else.

Given that creatures are the weakest card type and generally the weakest components of any given deck as well as the slowest (and therefore the least worrisome because they are the least interactive), the cards that should concern you the most from your opponents hand are not likely to be creatures. The best card, no matter the hand, is almost always going to be a spell. Even if you are playing against a dense creature deck like Goblins or Fish, this true. Just look back at my Goblins match from last week. I played Thoughtseize on turn 1 and saw Goblin Piledriver and Goblin Warchief, but the obvious correct card to take was Black Lotus.

The problem is that the second or third best card will often be a creature. When you Duress first, even if your opponent has creatures that you are concerned about, you will generally want to take a spell first, whether it is Force of Will or another Duress. The subsequent Thoughtseize can nab the pesky Aven Mindcensor, Dark Confidant, or what-have-you. Therefore, if you are presented with a situation in which you could play either Duress or Thoughtseize on turn 1, it is my inclination to play Duress, particularly if you are aware of the matchup. The fact that Thoughtseize is Misdirectable is another, but minor, reason that supports this choice.

Please note: this does not in any way, shape, or form imply that I think that Duress is a better card. Far from it. Thoughtseize is definitely the superior weapon. It simply means that when you play a deck that runs both cards, and particularly a deck that runs large quantity of both cards as my 8-Duress GAT list does, you will face this decision frequently and will have to find a way to decide. It’s my general rule, although far from a rigid rule, that Duressing first is the sounder play.

While we are on the topic of Duress… although I covered this topic two weeks ago, I did receive a few questions about whether I thought that 8 Duress effects was too much or whether it was a calculated metagame choice. The answer to both question is: No. Eight Duresses is not really a lot of Duresses. That’s merely one every 7.5 cards, or barely one for every opening hand on average. There are games, sadly, where I do not have a turn 1 or 2 Duress, even in matchups where it is highly desirable. If I were allowed, I would probably play around 10 or 11, at a number where I was almost guaranteed to see one in my opening hand and another shortly thereafter. The only matchup where Duress is suboptimal is a matchup where GAT has very little pre-board action: The Workshop match. But against the vast majority of the field, whether it is Flash, Oath, Painters decks, Combo, or what-have-you, the Duresses are amazing.

Many years ago, I wrote an essay for an ancient Vintage website called Bdominia.com (the predecessor to TheManaDrain.com) applying economic principles to an analysis of Duress. I reasoned that the utility of Duress was approximate to the value of the card taken by it. The opportunity cost (a key economic concept) of any slot in a Vintage deck is high. Vintage is full of great cards, and running one card implies the rejection of another, which is the cost of running the card you have selected. Therefore, the cost of Duress is the marginal utility of Duress and the opportunity cost of that slot measured against the benefit derived from taking a particular card from your opponent on average. In old Vintage, Duress frequently had a very low utility both because people ran so many bad decks, but also because there were so few “combo” finishes in 2000, 2001, and even 2002 Vintage that it was not uncommon for both decks to have emptied their hands in battle and have small board advantages, like a Jackal Pup eating away at Keeper’s life total. Also, Keeper needed a way to stop spells from hitting the board from the top of the opponent’s deck, not simply take away the opponent’s answers so it could combo out. Keeper couldn’t and didn’t combo out. My ultimate conclusion was that the utility of Duress just wasn’t high enough to justify its presence in most Vintage decks at the time. Almost each of today’s decks combo out at some point. They don’t sit around waiting at their leisure to play a relevant spell. Tempo matters a lot more. Games are compressed. In that environment, Duress is amazing. Vintage decks have about 4.5 turns per game, compared to 8 years ago when Vintage decks took their sweet time.

It’s not just that Duress wasn’t nearly as good in 2000 and 2001… the cost of running Duress was higher in pre-2003 Vintage, a format before Onslaught fetchlands. Running a 4-5 color deck required manabases that had a very high mix of dual lands, and even cards like City of Brass. Without making huge sacrifices, there was no way to consistently guarantee a Black mana on turn 1 that would maximize the use of Duress. You could easily draw Volcanic Island, Tundra, Tropical Island, but no Black mana. Those concerns don’t exist today since Fetchlands are the backbone of Vintage manabases and the ubiquitous presence of Brainstorm.

Looking Ahead

I had two losses in two tournaments, one in the swiss on Day 1 and one in the Top 8 on Day 2. I see little reason not to continue to play GroAtog in major Vintage tournaments in the future. Although many people, especially Europeans, are skeptical of GroAtog right now, I’m pretty firmly convinced that it is the best deck in the format. My reasoning basically runs like this.

First of all, this deck beats Tyrant Oath. With 8 Duresses and the inherent spell to mana advantage, it’s difficult for Tyrant Oath to consistently beat this GAT list. I was 2-0-1 against Tyrant Oath this weekend, and the draw would have been a victory had I had 10 more minutes. Second, this GAT list beats Flash and Painter decks. With 8 Duresses, Painter combo is easily broken up and disrupted. Flash is a tough match for anyone, but if anything helps, it’s Duress effects.

This deck’s worst matchup is not simply Workshops, but something that actually run Smokestacks. Very few people play Smokestacks, and I don’t anticipate that that number will rise anytime soon. Smokestack is slow and worthless against Oath, Flash, Painter, Ichorid, and pretty much everything else. In addition, Workshop decks are back at a lower ebb again.

In short, the metagame is highly favorable for GAT. The forces that bound it are such that it is unlikely that a metagame shift will happen that will prove unfavorable for GAT. Painter’s Servant can be thanked for that.

This deck also packs the absolute best spells in the format in the highest density proportions. 8 Duresses, 8 Brainstorms, 5 Pitch spells, and the entire Gushbond combo. Quite simply, they are the best cards in the format. The only one card change I’m likely to make is to cut the Empty the Warrens for a maindeck Tendrils, although it’s far from a given at the moment. There is also one other set that will become legal before the Vintage Championship at U.S. Nationals in early August. Meanwhile, over the next few months I will enjoy exploring other decks that other people have been innovating.

Until next time…

Stephen Menendian