So Many Insane Plays - The Hottest Deck in Vintage, GWB Beatdown, and Other Vintage Notes

This weekend we held a small Vintage tournament in Columbus, Ohio that marked an important milestone: Collector’s Edition Cards were legal. A few players, including reigning Vintage Champion Paul Mastriano, ran a handful of CE cards, including CE Time Vault. The players were receptive to the idea and in the end, there were no complaints. Afterward, I asked players what they thought, and the reaction was mostly a non-reaction. People didn’t seem to think that there was a difference.

I played against Paul, and because of the sleeves he used I couldn’t tell which cards were CE and which weren’t. In fact, I predicted that one card on the top of his library was a CE card; it turned out to be a revised Underground Sea, much to my surprise! We will continue to allow CE cards in our Vintage tournaments, and I only hope that others follow suit.

I played the Grow deck I piloted to 3rd place in the March Waterbury, with some slight tweaks. Here is my current list:

Grow

Stephen Menendian

Test deck on 05-31-2009

Vintage

Creatures (8)

Lands (13)

Spells (39)

Sideboard

After getting mauled by my Bobs at the Waterbury, I included some Sensei’s Divining Tops so that I could better manage my life totals, and so that I would feel more comfortable playing multiple Dark Confidants. The Tops were weak every time I played them, and I wonder if Serum Vision would just be better. The key change was Darkblast in the sideboard.

I considered changing maindeck Echoing Truth into Hurkyl’s Recall, but decided against it. I resolved, instead, to sideboard in Hurkyl’s for E. Truth in every matchup that ran Leviathan. Echoing Truth is still the only answer to Empty the Warrens.

I don’t know if you’ve figured this out yet, but Darkblast is one of the hottest cards in Vintage right now. It nails Welders, Shamans, and Dark Confidants on a recurring basis. It also helps break Tarmogoyf stalemates. It’s going to be a card that sees a lot of play this summer.

In Round 1 I faced Mike Bomholt, a teammate who won the last Vintage tournament he attended last December in Pittsburgh, besting a 41 player field. He was playing an updated Tezzeret Control list. My Duresses tore him apart in the first game, and I was able to tutor up and resolve Ancestral Recall, which kept me ahead for the rest of the game. My opening hand was Ponder, Brainstorm, Misdirection, Force of Will, Duress, Polluted Delta, and Mox Sapphire. I Duressed him on turn 1 and every subsequent turn for the rest of the game until I won. In Game 2, my opening hand was Black Lotus, Duress, Thoughtseize, Dark Confidant, Delta, Misdirection, Gush. He opened with Mox, Land into Thoughtseize, which I Misdirected to him, which revealed Sol Ring, Tezzeret, Thirst For Knowledge, Demonic Tutor, and a land. After discarding one of his spells, he played Sol Ring and passed the turn. I Duressed away his remaining business and dropped Bob. So, his hand was stripped clean and I had a Bob on the table. Despite having only 18 mana sources in my deck, he topdecked much better than I did. My Bob flipped land and I drew another. Mike drew another Tezzeret, which he used to get Voltaic Key. I revealed Tinker and drew another land. I attacked the Tezzeret with Dark Confidant to prevent him from using it to find Time Vault. Unfortunately, he topdecked Tinker and found Time Vault for the win. I was pretty upset as his luck!

No matter, I shuffled up for game 2 and Duressed him on turn 1 to see:

Polluted Delta
Mox Emerald
Mana Crypt
Tezzeret
Thirst For Knowledge
Time Walk

Nothing stood out as an obvious take. The first card I considered was Mana Crypt. However, if he Time Walks into a second land, he can play Thirst. The reason this mattered is that I had Ancestral Recall in my opening hand this game, and I didn’t want him to be able to Force it. However, if I took Thirst, then he could Time Walk and, again, if he drew a mana source, play Tezzeret, and I’d really be dead. But if I took Tezzeret, he could Time Walk and Thirst. Every card I take leaves him with strong options. Ultimately, because of this analysis, I decided to take Time Walk, a counter-intuitive choice from a surface look. It paid off. I fired off Ancestral on my next turn and pushed ahead. He played Tezzeret, but I had Goyf to prevent him from assembling the combo. He managed to resolve his own Ancestral, but my greater threat density gave me the edge.

Unfortunately, in my next matchup I was paired against reigning Vintage Champ, Paul Mastriano, who knew my deck inside and out. We roomed together at the Waterbury, and tested against each other’s lists in person. Paul has been on a streak, winning consecutive tournaments, first in Pittsburgh on May 3, then in Philadelphia a week later, May 10th, and was looking to three-peat here in Columbus on May 18th, with three consecutive tournament wins. Paul was on a hot streak, and I knew it. But my Grow deck would give him fits, I had hoped.

Here is what Paul played in Philly:

Remora Tez

Paul Mastriano

Test deck on 05-31-2009

Vintage

Creatures (5)

Planeswalkers (1)

1 Tezzeret the Seeker

Lands (12)

Spells (42)

Sideboard

Paul’s deck might be the hottest deck in Vintage right now. Some Europeans had come up with similar lists, pairing Mystic Remora with Dark Confidant (take a look at this).

Mystic Remora is a great discovery by Rich Shay, and it has become the hottest card in Vintage. Paul described the function of Mystic Remora in this deck in this way:

Mystic Remora does the following things:

1. Ruins the opponent’s early plays. If you play it before they get to play their Moxen, you get to draw a bunch of cards or they have to sit there without their mana. Major advantage if you put it down first turn on the play.

2. Runs interference in the mid game. I’ll often play Remora and then follow it up with other threats which turn into cards should they try to disrupt me. Imagine trying to counter me when you know I get another card out of it. What if we start a counter war – is that going to be worth it for you?

3. Blocks the “big turn.” Vintage is often defined by a couple of big turns where someone plays a lot of spells.

4. It’s hilarious to Hurkyl’s Recall someone and follow it up with Remora. I dare you to replay your stuff, hehe.

I was excited about playing Paul, and I don’t think either one of us was concerned about losing, although we didn’t really explore the option of drawing. My opening hand was modest: Mystical Tutor, Sleight of Hand, Dark Confidant, Echoing Truth, Misdirection, Mox Jet, Island, and Polluted Delta. Not the strongest opener, but not weak enough to throw back. I lost the die roll, and Paul opened with: Mox, Academy, Time Vault!
I played Mox, Land, and just passed the turn. I debated playing Dark Confident, but if he had Voltaic Key, I could buy a turn by using Echoing Truth. And if he did nothing, I could tutor up Ancestral Recall or Tinker to win the game. Paul played Tinker on turn two, and I pretended to be demoralized by the play while Paul, bluffing, talked up Inkwell Leviathan while I was pretending to debate whether to respond. Predictably, he found Voltaic Key, as I foresaw, and tried to activate it to untap Time Vault. He was so excited and quick to untap Time Vault that he didn’t realize I had a response. I told him to wait, that I had a response. He was like, “what, you have Stifle?” “Nope,” I told him: Echoing Truth the Time Vault in response to Voltaic Key activation. He was forced to pass the turn. On my upkeep I debated what to Tutor for. The two options that came to mind were Ancestral or Force. I decided to get Force of Will, which was a mistake in retrospect. Rather than play Bob, I played Sleight of Hand to try and dig up a Duress. I saw another Force, which I popped into hand. My hand was: Force, Force, Misdirection, and Bob. On his third turn upkeep, Paul played Vampiric Tutor. He then cast Black Lotus, which I let resolve, and replayed Time Vault, which I was forced to counter. But he was also holding Yawgmoth’s Will. Had I Mystical Tutored for Duress instead of Force, I would have been able to Duress the Time Vault and counter the Yawgmoth’s Will. I scooped and we moved onto game 2.

My opening hand was weak: 4 Lands, Sensei’s Divining Top, Vampiric Tutor, and Demonic Tutor. I debating a mulligan, but decided against it. I led with Top and passed the turn. Paul played two Dark Confidant’s in a row, and I wished to god I had sideboarded in Darkblast, which I could have Vamped up. I did sideboard in Hurkyl’s Recall for his Leviathan, but all I could do was play a Dark Confidant of my own. He Tinkered up the Leviathan. I tutored up Yawgmoth’s Will, from which I could tutor up Hurkyl’s Recall. However, his Dark Confidant revealed Darkblast, which he used to kill my Confidant, giving him just enough damage to kill me, with Yawgmoth’s Will stranded in hand. Game 1 was just strange, and game 2 he beat me by getting down a turn 1 and a turn 2 Confidant, which I could have answered had I brought in Darkblast. I congratulated Paul and hoped for a rematch later in the tournament.

My next round was opponent was Nam Tran, whom I knew would be playing a Workshop deck of some type. My record against Nam Tran is pretty awful, something like 1-3. To my surprise, he mulliganed to 5 in game 1, which pretty much gave me the game. He played a Welder and a Shaman, but I answered with Dark Confidants. I won the game fairly quickly.

Game 2 was much more interesting. I boarded in 3 Island, 2 Seal of Primordium, 2 Hurkyl’s Recall, 1 Rebuild, 1 Darkblast for 4 Sleight of Hand, 1 Misdirection, and 4 Duress. Nam opened with turn 1 Mox, Land, Lotus, Trinisphere. I was not concerned because I had plenty of lands in hand, even when he played Sphere of Resistance on turn 2. I led with two fetchlands on my first two turns. But my confidence turned to concern when he played Strip Mine and Crucible of Worlds on turn 3. My hand had Merchant Scroll, Ancestral Recall, and Rebuild. I would be able to break the lock if I either had Hurkyl’s instead of Rebuild or if he didn’t have 2Sphere. I played a dual land and passed the turn. He untapped Stripped my land, replayed Strip Mine and passed the turn. I topdecked a third fetchland, which I played. On his turn he went to Strip my Fetchland, and I responded by breaking it for Island. He went to Strip my Island, and I used this opportunity to try and break the lock. I broke the other two fetchlands and cast Ancestral Recall. If I drew Seal of Primordium or a Hurkyl’s Recall, I could break out of this and win the game. Instead, I drew Tarmogoyf, which I played on my turn. Unfortunately, he drew Balance, and the game was over. I was Strip locked under Trinisphere. It’s amazing that playing Grow I almost beat turn 1 Trinisphere while fighting Strip Mine recursion!

Game 3 was epic. My opening hand was weak, but strong enough. Most concerning, I had only two mana sources, a Polluted Delta and a Tropical Island. However, I expected that I would draw more lands since I sideboarded in so many basic Islands. My hand also had Thoughtseize, Ponder, Mystical Tutor, Hurkyl’s Recall, and something else I can’t remember. I played turn 1 Thoughtseize and saw this:

Mishra’s Workshop
City of Brass
Sol Ring
Chalice of the Void
Chalice of the Void
Trinisphere
Sphere of Resistance

It would be dramatic to say that my heart sank, but it didn’t. His hand was unbelievably powerful, almost perfect, but I knew that there was a weak link somewhere.

My sense, from an informal poll later, is that 9 out of 10 Vintage pilots would take Trinisphere, as that’s what Paul said he would do, and others as well. I didn’t.

Here’s my thinking: if I take Trinisphere, he’ll play turn 1 Workshop, Sol Ring, Chalice at 1, Sphere of Resistance, turn 2 Chalice at 2. That line of play struck me as more devastating. If he plays Trinisphere, then not only will those plays be less likely, they will be more difficult to play out. Sphere of Resistance seemed like a possible take, but less relevant since my answer was Hurkyl’s, which costs the same with Trinisphere in play. I decided to take Sol Ring, with very little certainty that I was making the right play, but without wishing to delay any further. Predictably, Nam played turn 1 Trinisphere. I played my second land. Nam played turn 2 Chalice for 2, which was the best possible thing for me. Although I could not play turn 3 Hurkyl’s or Seal of Primordium, or any of my creatures, he cut himself off of Sphere of Resistance and Chalice at 1, and I still had Mystical Tutor available to me to find Rebuild or Tinker. Although I drew a third land, Nam managed to Wasteland one of my dual lands, thus keeping me one mana short of being able to play spells. He played Black Lotus off his Shop and cast Goblin Welder, which he could have used to recur Trinisphere had I taken that. After that he played Chalice at 3, which really hurt since it cut off the Rebuild in my hand and the Tinker I intended to find and play in the future. The only way I could win now was to hardcast Inkwell Leviathan, which I was capable of doing. He drew dead for a few turns and attacked me with Welder. Until I found a third land, which I used to cast Darkblast! He played another Welder, which met the same fate. My plan now was simple: counter Smokestacks, Crucibles, and key restricted cards with my Forces, Drains, and Thoughtseizes. All I needed then was to Drain into a Leviathan. I had two Forces in hand, and he played a Smokestack, which I Forced (pitching Rebuild, but keeping Hurkyl’s), but he answered it with Red Elemental Blast. He started to ramp the Smokestack with just a minute or so left in the round. I had 5 lands in play, and I decided to play Ponder to try and dig. It was an error. He used the opportunity to play Tinker. He Tinkered away his Chalice for 3 (which works), to find Sundering Titan, which made short work of me. At the end of the game I was holding Yawgmoth’s Will. If I had not played Ponder, I could have countered his Tinker. Although he had Red Elemental Blasts in hand, most of his mana consisted of three Mishra’s Workshops. He would have not have been able to stop my Force, since he had to use his non-Shop mana to generate the mana to play Tinker. My plan was to let his Smokestack wipe our boards, since he had ramped it to two, and then try to be the first to recover with my Yawgmoth’s Will.

The game was longer and more complex than my brief presentation. For instance, throughout the game I had to make decisions about what to discard while I was locked under Trinisphere, decisions that were potentially critical. But I hope I conveyed at least some of the key decisions that mattered.

Part of the allure of Vintage is the high-stakes decision-making. Nowhere was that more evident in my brief tournament experience than in Duress decisions. Sometimes, the correct Duress target is obvious. Often, it is not. At the first level, there is sometimes a choice between a broken mana accelerant or the card that abuses said accelerant. But it’s often much more complicated than that. Chess players understand that it’s not just the power of the piece that matter. Tempo and position can matter just as much. The power of a particular card can be a trap at worst, or a red herring. In game 3 of my match against Mike Bomholt, there were at least three other targets that seemed as plausible as Time Walk. It was the tempo that swayed me, not the power of the card. And probably most of you would have taken anything other than Sol Ring in my game 3 against Nam Tran. As for not taking Trinisphere, the alternative lines of play were more frightening, believe it or not, and just as importantly, I had faith in my deck. My analysis turned not simply upon what was in hand, but what I expected to draw. I looked at the situation, not just from a tactical perspective but from a strategic view of how the game might unfold in the long-run. I saw Trinisphere as something that I could play under. My plan against Stax is simple. Make lots of land drops and play a Hurkyl’s Recall to clear the board, untap and win. Trinisphere does not seriously interfere with that plan.

Paul went onto Top 4 split, extending his hot streak. It was a great tournament and a lot of fun. Congrats to the top 4.

Adding A Third Color

A few weeks ago I enjoyed sharing my work on G/W Beatz, and more importantly, hopefully open some eyes to how potent Budget decks in Vintage can be if designed well. As I described in that article, although the accumulated printings of 15 years had given White and Green numerous options, and the tools needed to interact in such a hostile metagame, there was still one glaring weakness: the inability to interact consistently on turn 1. No one-drops made the cut, and turn 1 plays were therefore either reliant on drawing a Spirit Guide or the singleton Lotus Petal. The problem is that if you are on the draw, do not have a turn 1 play, and find your first threat countered, your opponent will begin their critical turn 3 at virtually full strength, and likely fully developed their board position while you have yet to advance your second pawn.

Adding a third color will allow you to develop faster and interact on turn 1. Since I’m committed to optimal budget configurations, I’m keeping blue out of the equation. Between Red and Black, which color gives us the best options?

Broadly speaking, Red gives you:

* Simian Spirit Guide as a useful mana source, allowing you to accelerate with greater consistency on turn 1.
* Pyroblast/Red Elemental Blast for counterpower and to stop broken Blue plays.
* Anti-Artifact Cards like Ingot Chewer, Ancient Grudge, and Tin-Street Hooligan

Broadly speaking, Black gives you:

* Duress/Thoughtseize.
* Demonic Consultation and Vampiric Tutor
* Dark Confidant
* The best anti-Ichorid cards for the sideboard

When you line up the advantages of each color, there is no question. First of all, Green and White have a rich anti-artifact card pool, so adding Red really adds little on that front. Second, Pyroblast and Red Elemental Blast are good cards, but Duress and Thoughtseize can be played on turn 1 every time, and are not conditional on your opponent playing something first. To the extent that Red Blasts help you resolve spells, Shusher and Duress effects help do that as well. Third, Demonic Consultation and Vampiric Tutor are unbelievably powerful additions. Dark Confidant provides an incredible source of card advantage. And the anti-Ichorid cards that Black gives you are just better than anything else that White can give you.

Here is my current GWB list:

GWB Beatdown

Stephen Menendian

Test deck on 05-31-2009

Vintage

Creatures (23)

Lands (19)

Spells (18)

Sideboard

Reports from someone who played a similar decklist was that Tidehollow Sculler was very strong. I had not tested Sculler, although I had considered him. He could be a powerful addition, but I would not feel comfortable making any further cuts from this list.

Mailbag!

Last week I wrote about potential changes to the restricted list that might bring greater diversity into a format suffocated by Mana Drains. I began by showing something I don’t think many people had realized, that every time in the last 11 years that they have restricted more than one card, they have reversed one or more of those restrictions (with one solitary exception). The DCI has a habit of restricting too many cards at once. Consistent with this pattern, I posited that the DCI went too far in its restrictions last Summer. Although the restrictions were described as intending to help bring greater balance into the format among its major engines (as described by Tom LaPille), they had the opposite effect and have created even greater imbalance. While I wouldn’t want to commit the error in reverse by unrestricting a bunch of cards, I did suggest that the current metagame structure was amenable to targeted unrestrictions designed to help combat (or at least ameliorate the degree of) Mana Drain dominance. Finally, I systematically addressed the claims raised in response to my Metagame Report from the week prior. I underscored the seven common arguments and showed why they were problematic or unpersuasive.

I’d like to address the questions and comments raised in response to my article:

CoffeeDrnkr wrote:

I was wondering about another possible use of Channel that seems like it could be unfair to me, and that is artifact aggro. That deck benefits a ton from being able to drop its whole hand of a dude, a sphere, a piece of equipment and equipping that piece on turn 1. That is pretty hard to beat, and not out of the question as an opener for a deck that runs 4x Channel, 4x Elvish Spirit Guide and Mox Emerald.

Artifact Aggro and Artifact Prison are both two possible uses for Channel that I considered, but my analysis last week strictly focused on trying to achieve a turn 1 kill with Channel. This was based on my premise that playing turn 2 Channel is fair for Vintage, since allows the opponent to mount a defense. There is no doubt that playing a bunch of dudes on turn 1 with Channel or a bunch of lock parts could close out games fairly quickly. The tempo advantage is incredible. The problem with both approaches is the inconsistency of pulling off turn 1 Channel. Even with 4 Elvish Spirit Guides, your chances of turn 1 Channel are not high. In that light, it’s hard to say that four Channel Workshop decks are really any more explosive than turn 1 Workshop, Metalworker, or just using Mishra’s Workshop on turn 1 and turn 2. After all, with turn 1 Metalworker, you could quite feasibly generate 10-14 mana on turn 1, and with Voltaic Key, you could generate more than Channel. With Metalworker out there, how much more dangerous is Channel? Metalworker is much easier to play in such a deck, and won’t contort your manabase in the process.

The other thing I wanted to know was why the GAT version that you were referring to didn’t include Lorescale Coatl, which seems like it would be a great creature in that deck with unrestricted Gush.

I have been a fan of Coatl since I reviewed it in my set review. While a couple of Coatls could be a nice addition to Grow, and have great synergy with Gush, I prefer the simple base of 4 Dryads and 1 Tendrils. The efficiency of Dryad gives it a critical edge, and Tendrils is just the best Finisher after you have resolved Yawgmoth’s Will.

Ember Twilight raised a number of concerns, so I will respond to them individually.

I think you underestimate just how devastating an unrestricted Balance would be on Oath, Fish, Elves, Ichorid, R/G Beatz, and Goblin decks in Vintage.

Balance does not seem particularly useful against either Ichorid or Oath. Since Oath requires that the opponent have a creature in order to activate it, I cannot see how Balance would really do anything against Oath since Balance relies on asymmetry. The Oath player would have a large creature to the Balance pilot’s Spirit token generated by Forbidden Orchard. As for Balance against Ichorid, that seems like bad play. Allowing an Ichorid pilot to discard any number of dredger before their first turn will accelerate their goldfish by allowing them to dredge on their first turn draw step. And so long as they were able to keep at least one card, they will be able to drop Bazaar to combo out. If you opponent has enough creatures for Balance to matter, then they’ve likely stripped the Balance from your hand with Cabal Therapies.

As for the effect of Balance on Elves, R/G Beatz, and Goblins, the number of these decks making Top 8s is tiny. Collectively, these three archetypes put up 5 representatives into Top 8s in my March/April metagame report out of 120 slots. Although the particular effect of Balance is strong against these archetypes, I think its power in these matchups and metagame effect are overstated.

First of all, consider Elves. Elves is a turn 2 combo deck. Elves will often lead with one elf on turn 1 and then two elves immediately following it on turn 2 to win the game. For example, turn 1 Balance against Elves is just Swords to Plowshares. And turn 2 Balance is too late. Against Goblins, Goblins decks often run Aether Vial, which allows them to topdeck creatures and put them directly into play. For example, post-Balance, a topdecked Matron or Ringleader could instantly replenish your hand and board. And how many times have Vintage players seen Goblins recover from a Pyroclasm?

This brings me to the most important reason that these fears seem overstated. Given that these archetypes are tiny fringe elements in terms of Vintage Top 8s, is there any reason to think that their metagame position would be measurably jeopardized by unrestricted Balance any more than it is by existing unrestricted cards which are commonly played? Granted, one would not expect that unrestricted Balance would help their cause, but is the addition of unrestricted Balance to a metagame that features significant quantities of Pyroclasm, Oath of Druids, Tarmogoyfs, etc really that different in terms of affecting their chances to Top 8?

Frankly, I think it is entirely possible, even likely, that a Vintage metagame with 4 Balances would produce precisely the same number of Elves, Goblins and R/G Beatz as a percentage of Top 8s as the current one. Since their presence in Top 8s is already so minor, it’s hard to imagine that the measurable effect of unrestricted Balance would be greater than the natural variances in their Top 8 proportions.

Fish decks are another story. It’s true that Fish decks appear to be putting up good numbers. However, this is somewhat misleading. First of all, the “Fish” category is truly a composite of very different archetypes, which individually are tiny. Second. Fish decks are not a very successful archetype, nor can they — by any reasonable measure — be considered a Mana Drain metagame predator. They never win tournaments, and out of the 12 that I had counted in the March/April metagame, only one actually made it to the finals. It’s a deck that rarely breaks the Top 2, and struggles to make Top 4.

But let’s take an ever closer look. Let’s make some realistic assumptions about what might happen if Balance were unrestricted. Let’s assume that the Workshop decks reverse proportions, and that 2/3s of the Workshop decks that make Top 8 are 5c Stax decks abusing Balance, with the other third being Workshop Aggro. Let’s further assume that Workshop decks see a 6.5% increase in Top 8s in the first couple of months, raising their percentage from 14.17% of Top 8s to 20.67% of Top 8s. That’s neither overly optimistic nor pessimistic. Also, let’s assume that in our next data set a couple of irregular, rogue Balance decks also make Top 8, perhaps along the lines I suggested last week. With those assumptions, Fish would have to contend with approximately 15% 3-4 Balances in Top 8s.

Now, consider a deck like this:

UW Fish

Adrien De Gautrau

Test deck on 05-31-2009

Vintage

Creatures (18)

Lands (15)

Spells (39)

This is a common European UW Fish model.

Assuming that 15% of Top 8s are Balance decks, with most of that being 5c Stax, how would that change anything? Keeping in mind that Stax already runs tools like Trikes, Ensnaring Bridges, Tabernacle of Pendrel Vales, Sword of Fire and Ice, and Razomane Masticores, what percentage loss would Fish suffer?

The Fish deck posted above already has plenty of tools for Balance: Force of Will, Daze, Meddling Mage, and sideboard Spell Snare. I imagine that Fish decks might want to sideboard a few more Spell Snares, but that’s no loss, given that Spell Snares also, nicely, fight Mana Drain. My suspicion is that Fish decks will suffer a loss, but not a substantial one.

There are several key reasons for this:

1) Workshop Aggro is already a very bad match for Fish, and the switch from Workshop Aggro to 5c Stax can’t actually hurt Fish.

2) Fish decks can still win even against 4 Balance Workshop decks. Fish has a surprising number of tools for dealing with Balance decks. First of all, Fish decks have always relied on countermagic and mana denial. Depending on which route Balance decks take, Null Rod will be, at a minimum, painful for Balance decks, and a most, devastating for Balance decks. Similarly, cards like Energy Flux and Force of Will are unaffected by Balance.

3) Even if Balance does kill a couple of creatures, Fish decks are used to dealing with such effects, as they have to contend with Fire/Ice, Pyroclasm, Oath of Druids, Tarmogoyf, and Engineered Explosives.

4) Most importantly: Drain decks, and the other decks that Fish decks are aiming for, make up a huge proportion of the field. If Drains make up 35% of Top 8s, and it’s likely that that’s the lower bound, even in a 4 Balance metagame, Fish decks really lose little ground.

While the total number of Fish as a percentage of Top 8s might see a small decline, the fundamental organization of the metagame would not render Fish decks unplayable.

Its flexibility makes too good to pass up – especially for creatureless decks like Tez or Shaymora. How hard would it be for those two decks to start packing Flooded Strands and Tundras and switch to the classic W/U Control deck of yore? Why bother with Inkwell Leviathan at all? Just Balance then use Tez’s Ultimate to attack with all the artifacts you have left over.

Frankly, most of these decks already ignore the archetypes you are describing by simply tutoring up Tinker at the earliest moment and Tinkering up Leviathan for the win. If you look in their sideboards, they devote no more than a few cards to the Fish and aggro matchups. And the cards they already use are sufficiently devastating in Goyf, Threads, Slaughter Pact, Oath and Pyroclasm.

I don’t know why you keep citing Balance’s main power as a two mana Mind Twist. Mass discard hasn’t been good in Vintage in years and Vintage plays out of its graveyard so much that I’m not sure its discard feature really matters.

To a certain extent, you are making the case for Balance’s unrestriction. I think one of the greatest concerns that people have is the devastating impact of Balance as a two mana Mind Twist. If this is not a concern, then one of the main objections to Balance is answered.

But as a board sweeper for Lands and Creatures, Balance is way too efficient for that.

Is it? There already exist very efficient board sweepers for creatures, and as for lands, Balance is fundamentally a parity card. In order for it to function as an Armageddon, you’d have to have no lands in play when you play Balance. While I think that is possible, it is unlikely. You are likely to have at least one land, which in Vintage is plenty.

Even in a Grow deck, a player could use it after Gushing to clear the board of blockers and his opponent’s lands, then drop his two blue duals to play Dryad which could then attack unhindered from then on.

And then discard half of your hand? Seems awful for Grow. Gush puts four cards into your hand.

Unrestricted Balance would be the death knell for aggro decks in Vintage. I absolutely oppose that proposition.

While Balance is potent against Aggro decks, I think the predictions of disaster are very much overstated, for reasons I’ve exhaustively covered.

Mlano wrote:

If these unrestrictions are carried out in the interest of creating a more diverse metagame, having fewer effective after the fact seems like missing the mark.

To some extent, this question gets at the issue of diversity of the metagame directly, and what we mean by that. Let me walk through a hypothetical. I recorded 23 distinct archetypes making Top 8s in the March/April metagame report, but in a field dominated by Mana Drain decks and Tezzeret Control. It is theoretically possible that you could double the number of archetypes represented and increase the dominance of Drains and Tezzeret in the field. For example, there were 120 data points. Tezzeret could have theoretically counted for 60 of those, and 60 unique decks could have counted for the remainder. But that would not be a very diverse metagame. In fact, it would very obviously be one dominated by a particular archetype.

The goal is not necessarily to increase the variety of archetypes writ large, but rather to increase the variety of successful archetypes at or near the top. It’s not very helpful if there is 50% of the field is made up of 60 unique archetypes if the other 50% of the field is one dominant deck. While Balance might make it harder for some fringe decks to top 8s or succeed once they are in top 8s and thus slightly reduce the number of archetypes making top 8s (in theory), it will almost certainly foster greater diversity within the upper tiers of the Vintage metagame.

Matt Elias inquired:

One of the cards I often hear discussed is Burning Wish. I’m curious why you omitted this card from your article (outside of considerations of length) – did you feel as if you had to choose between Burning Wish and Balance? 7x Balance plus tutors does seem a bit much, and Burning Wish on its own probably does little to tilt the balance back in favor of Storm decks, I suppose.

The article I wrote last week was already nearly 24 pages in Word, and I felt that an additional discussion on Burning Wish would add another five pages to the discussion without adding as much to the substance. Also, the interaction of Burning Wish and Balance did enter my decision. I felt that Balance was a more interesting, and potentially useful, candidate for analysis.

Next week this time we’ll know what the DCI decided to do, if anything, about the Restricted list.

Until then…

Stephen Menendian