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So Many Insane Plays – Prepping for the Legacy $5K/ Dredging Through Vintage

Read Stephen Menendian every week... at StarCityGames.com!
Monday, June 15th – Stephen Menendian presents a double dose of goodness today. First, he previews the upcoming StarCityGames.com $5000 Legacy Open occurring this weekend, before moving on to a thorough examination of Dredge in Vintage. If you’re looking for the lowdown on Eternal formats, this is the article for you!

StarCityGames.com will launch its $5000 Legacy series this Sunday in Boston. Show your support for SCG and Legacy by coming out for an amazing tournament.

Here are some important resources for you as you prepare:

1) Two Part Overview of the format: Part 1, Part 2.
2) Grand Prix: Chicago Coverage.
3) Doug Linn has drawn up an excellent metagame gauntlet. If you don’t have the time you’d like to prepare, and exhaustively test against the entire field, run his gauntlet and you’ll be in good shape.

Despite the fact that Counterbalance is often perceived to be one of the best decks in the format, especially the Counterbalance decks that are represented by Gabriel Nassif Grand Prix winning deck and Andy Probasco second place deck, I believe that a Counterbalance deck still remains the best deck for making top 8 and winning the tournament.

I will not be able to attend StarCityGames.com $5000 Open in Boston, but here’s what I would play were I to attend.


Click here for a primer on most of the card choices for this deck, its matchups, how to sideboard, and many other tips and tricks.

Since the Grand Prix, I have enjoyed great success with this list. One of my teammates has also won a string of local tournaments using this maindeck, although his sideboard is a bit different. This deck is designed for every type of threat. It addresses cards that hate on you with maindeck discard, disruption, and answers like Trygon Predator. The sideboard shores up remaining weaknesses.

I strongly encourage you to try this decklist in your gauntlet testing and see for yourself. You won’t be disappointed.

I will answer any questions you have in the forums, about my views on the format, or this deck in particular. Best of luck in Boston!

Composite Dredge

Dredge is one of the bogeymen of Vintage. It’s blisteringly fast, brutally powerful, and surprisingly resilient. While Dredge tends not to show up in large numbers, it’s one of the best performing archetypes in the format in terms of percentage of all Top 8s.

Whether you play it or face it, you must understand it. Since Dredge decks involve a narrow band of constantly changing threats and answers, it’s something that can be addressed by a careful investigation.

I have pulled every single Dredge list reported in a Vintage Top 8 from March to the present time. There have been 38 different Dredge lists in Vintage Top 8s in that time, of very different design approaches.

I’ve counted up the card choices in every single one of those lists so you can see what the most successful design choices have been over that time period. Here are the results:

Unanimous Choices (38/38)
4 Bazaar of Baghdad
4 Stinkweed Imp
4 Golgari Grave-Troll
4 Bridge From Below
4 Narcomoeba
3 Cabal Therapy
3 Ichorid
2 Dread Return
2 Golgari Thug

These cards appeared in every single Dredge list. These 32 cards constitute the ‘core’ of any Dredge list, whether it is more heavily mana based, manaless, or somewhere in between.

Notice that no Dredge list runs less than 10 dredgers. Bazaar of Baghdad is the decks engine and it’s most essential component. Narcomoeba and Bridge from Below are also universal.

4th Cabal Therapy (37/38)
3rd Golgari Thug (37/38)
3 Chalice of the Void (35/38)
4th Chalice of the Void (34/38)

Beyond Cabal Therapy, Chalice of the Void is the most popular and successful form of interaction. And understandably so. Chalice of the Void is second only to Null Rod in its disruptive effect in this format. It not only slows development by preventing your opponent from playing Moxen, it virtually stops Tinker and Yawgmoth’s Will, the format’s two most broken plays. Turn 1 Chalice will virtually guarantee that you have the time you need to win first.

1 Flame-Kin Zealot (34/38)

Flame-Kin Zealot is far and away the win condition of choice for Vintage Ichorid. It has long surpassed cards like Sutured Ghoul.

2 Serum Powders (33/38)
3rd Serum Powder (31/38)
3rd Dread Return (30/38)
4th Ichorid (30/38)
4th Serum Powder (29/38)

4 Serum Powder appear in over three-quarters of all Dredge lists. There is a subset of dredge lists that run more mana and cards like Breakthrough and Careful Study over Serum Powder. These decks do not place as much emphasis on ensuring that they have Bazaar of Baghdad in their opening hand. In fact, players who run the Breakthrough builds with more mana believe that their decks are faster and more resilient, since a larger manabase allows the dredge pilot to play more answers and play those answers with greater consistency. Also, Breakthrough is so broken that your average goldfish could actually be higher. The ability to use cards like Black Lotus, Lotus Petal and Mox Sapphire with Bazaar on turn one can produce turn one victories, something more mainstream lists are incapable of doing.

1 Unmask (25/38)
2nd Unmask (24/38)
4th Golgari Thug (24/38)
3rd Unmask (23/38)
1 Leyline of the Void (22/38)
1 City of Brass (22/38)
4th Dread Return (22/38)
2nd Leyline of the Void (21/38)
3rd Leyline of the Void (20/38)
4th Unmask (20/38)

Unmask and Leyline of the Void constitute the second line of defense, after Cabal Therapy and Chalice of the Void. These two cards are very interactive, highly efficient, and very synergistic. Leyline not only stops opponents from playing cards like Yawgmoth’s Will, but it is powerful in the mirror, and randomly hoses certain recursive strategies. Unmask is particularly powerful post-board, when your opponent will often open with an answer. Taking your opponent’s best spell on turn 1 will often buy you the critical time you need to win first.

2nd City of Brass (20/38)
4th Leyline of the Void (19/38)
3rd City of Brass (19/38)
4th City of Brass (18/38)

What’s interesting to note is that even so-called ‘manaless’ Dredge lists run a few non-Bazaar lands maindeck. They run City of Brass, Dryad Arbors, Fetchlands, or a combination thereof. The reason is simple. Manaless Ichorid variants run answers that cost mana in their sideboard. Dredge pilots have discovered, over time, that it’s simply more efficient to run some lands in the maindeck than try to stuff them all into the sideboard. Only a tiny fraction of Dredge lists in Top 8s run no lands beside Bazaar.

The reason that City of Brass shows up in such large numbers is that it’s run in a large number of ‘manaless’ dredge lists and many mana dredge lists that run cards like Breakthrough. However, Dryad Arbor is almost as popular, if not more so, among the manaless variants, for its maindeck utility in helping flashback Cabal Therapies, fuel Bridge from Belows, and sacrifice to Dread Return.

1 Cephalid Sage (16/38)

River Kelpie has recently picked up a lot of steam as a strong competitor to this card. Although Kelpie is often viewed as a faster card, this card remained the more popular engine for finishing off the opponent. Some Ichorid players feel that River Kelpie draws too many cards.

1 Angel of Despair (16/38)

This exists as a form of maindeck utility, just in case something awful happened.

1 Street Wraith (16/38)

Street Wraith is popular since it helps fuel Ichorids and also helps accelerate for faster goldfishes. A strong plurality of lists still run it, despite the fact that it’s fallen from favor in recent months.

1 Dryad Arbor (15/38)
2nd Street Wraith (14/38)
1 Gemstone Mine (14/38)
2nd Dryad Arbor (13/38)
1st Darkblast (13/38)
3rd Street Wraith (13/38)
2 Fatestitcher (11/38)

Fatestitcher is the most important piece of technology emerging from the archetype in the last few months. For the most part, it’s being run exclusively in American dredge lists. Fatestitcher untaps Bazaar of Baghdad and can produce a faster goldfish. However, you lose some disruption by running this card.

2nd Gemstone Mine (11/38)
2nd Flame-Kin Zealot (11/38)
3 & 4th Dryad Arbor (10/38)
4th Dread Return (10/38)
1 Mox Sapphire (10/38)
3rd Fatestitcher (9/38)
1 Black Lotus (9/38)
3rd Gemstone Mine (9/38)
1 Petrified Field (8/38)
4th Street Wraith (7/38)
3 Cephalid Coliseum (7/38)
1 Sadistic Hypnotist (7/38)
2nd Sadistic Hypnotist (6/38)

Sadistic Hypnotist is another card that is appearing in more and more Dredge lists. It is often paired with Fatestitcher. I tend to think it’s not a very good choice, and the numbers bear that out.

Take a look through the remaining cards for potential ideas:

2nd Darkblast (6/38)
2nd Cephalid Sage (6/38)
2 Breakthrough (6/38)
1 Lion’s Eye Diamond (6/38)
4th Gemstone Mine (6/38)
1 River Kelpie (5/38)
2nd Petrified Field (5/38)
3rd Breakthrough (5/38)
1 Ancestral Recall (5/38)
1 Lotus Petal (5/38)
2 Careful Study (4/38)
3rd Petrified Field (4/38)
4th Fatestitcher (3/38)
1 Reveillark (3/38)
3rd Sadistic Hypnotist (3/38)
4th Breakthrough (3/38)
1 Windswept Heath (3/38)
1 Wooded Foothills (2/38)
4th Cephalid Coliseum (2/38)
2 Nether Shadow (2/38)
1 Eternal Witness (2/38)
3rd Careful Study (2/38)
1 Riftwing Cloudskate (2/38)
1 Chrome Mox (2/38)
2 Force of Will (2/38)
1 Chain of Vapor (2/38)

Singletons:
3rd and 4th Force of Will
1 Emerald Charm
3rd Darkblast
2nd River Kelpie
2nd Angel of Despair
1 Riftstone Portal
1 Brainstorm
3 Ancient Grudge
1 Stalking Vengeance
1 Duplicant
3rd and 4th Nether Shadow

Despite the variant among the lists, particularly the divergence between ‘mana’ and ‘manaless’ dredge lists, there remains a great deal of overlap among the lists. To some extent, the terms are misleading. Most Ichorid lists run lie somewhere between the two extremes.

The Dredge Sideboard

The dredge sideboard is perhaps the most important thing to take note of. The composite Dredge sideboard will show us the type of solutions that most Dredge pilots are preparing for. The hope, if you are trying to beat Dredge, is that this analysis will reveal a weakness, a potential opening to exploit. If you are a Dredge pilot, on the other hand, it might suggest an area that needs to be shorn up.

2 Contagion (25/38)
2 Chain of Vapor (22/38)
2 Emerald Charm (22/38)
1 Ancient Grudge (21/38)
3rd Chain of Vapor (18/38)
3rd Contagion (16/38)
3rd Emerald Charm (15/38)
4th Chain of Vapor (15/38)
2 Pithing Needle (14/38)
2nd Ancient Grudge (13/38)
1 Oxidize (13/38)
2nd Oxidize (12/38)
1 Ingot Chewer (11/38)
2 Bayou (10/38)
3rd Oxidize (10/38)
2nd Gemstone Mine (8/38)
2 Reverent Silence (8/38)
4 Contagion (7/38)
2nd Ingot Chewer (7/38)
3rd Pithing Needle (7/38)
3rd Gemstone Mine (7/38)
1 Sickening Shoal (7/38)
1 Leyline of the Void (6/38)
4th Oxidize (6/38)
3rd Reverent Silence (6/38)
1 Windswept Heath (6/38)
2nd Sickening Shoal (5/38)
2nd, 3rd, and 4th Leyline of the Void (5/38)
2 Darkblast (5/38)
3rd Ingot Chewer (5/38)
3rd Ancient Grudge (5/38)
2nd Windswept Heath (4/38)
4th Emerald Charm (4/38)
4 Reverent Silence (4/38)
1 Platinum Angel (3/38)
4th Ingot Chewer (3/38)
4th Pithing Needle (3/38)
4th Ancient Grudge (3/38)
1 Tormod’s Crypt (3/38)
1 Windswept Heath (3/38)
1 Riftstone Portal (2/38)
2 Extirpate (2/38)
1 Ancestor’s Chosen (2/38)
3rd Bayou (2/38)
4th Gemstone Mine (2/38)
1 Ray of Revelation (2/38)
2nd Tormod’s Crypt (2/38)

Singletons
Angel of Despair
Black Lotus
Darksteel Colossus
Duplicant
3 Firestorm
Fleshbag Marauder
3 Force of Will
2nd and 3rd Ray of Revelation
2nd and 3rd Riftstone Portal
3rd Sickening Shoal
2 Swords to Plowshares
3rd Tormod’s Crypt
1 Wispmare
3rd Windswept Heath
2nd and 3rd Wooded Foothills


The good news is that as a Vintage competitor, you now have a great idea of what to expect the next time to sit down to face dredge.

The bad news is that there is no easy answer. Contagion and Chain of Vapor, albeit in limited quantities, are the most common sideboard options for Dredge pilots, appearing in a strong majority of lists.

Dredge Hate Composite’s Answers For:
Yixlid Jailer 11 (3 Contagion + 4 Chain of Vapor+ 4 Unmask)
Leyline of the Void 7 (3 Emerald Charm + 4 Chain of Vapor)
Pithing Needle 9 (4 Chain of Vapor+ 1 Oxidize + 2 Ancient Grudge + 4 Unmask (1/2 of the time))
Tormod’s Crypt 14 (4 Chalice of the Void + 4 Unmask (1/2 of the time)+ 4 Chain of Vapor + 1 Oxidize + 2 Ancient Grudge+ 2 Pithing Needle (1/2 of the time))
Relic of Progenitus 9 (4 Unmask (1/2 of the time)+1 Oxidize + 2 Ancient Grudge + 4 Chain of Vapor)
Extirpate 6 (4 Unmask + 4 Cabal Therapies (some of the time)

Extirpate is often played at a tactically advantageous point in time, so it’s more vulnerable to discard than might appear at first blush.

The truth of the matter is that the composite Dredge list is very well balanced in its sideboard to answer particular hate cards. Dredge is simply too powerful to rely on a single answer, as Dredge will, more likely than not, have an answer to your answer.

The most powerful answers remains Leyline of the Void. The Dredge maindeck runs cards like Unmask and Cabal Therapy to help strip answers before they can be played. Leyline of the Void is played before these threats can be used, and so it remains far more effective than its counterparts. Yixlid Jailer is also incredibly effective, but it loses to Unmask, Contagion, and a host of other cards.

Despite its limited impact compared to other silver bullets, Extirpate remains the least answerable threat. Extirpate can be used to buy time to find additional answers, and it’s hard for Dredge to stop.

Tormod’s Crypt remains the least effective card, and the easiest for your opponent to address and play around. Relic of Progenitus might actually just be better.

Pithing Needle is amazingly effective because it can turn off your opponent’s Bazaar, which is used by the Dredge pilot to dig for mana and answers. If your opponent can use their Bazaar, then they might not be able to find these limited sideboard cards in the first place.

Leyline, Pithing Needle, and Extirpate appear to be the strongest answers. Ichorid pilots are least prepared or able to address these threats, but they are answerable.

If there is one opening, I would say it’s that Ichorid pilots are not sufficiently prepared to fight Leyline of the Void. If you can pair Leyline with something like Pithing Needle, it will be very difficult for you opponent to win. Ancient Grudge, for example, won’t be able to stop the Pithing Needle if Leyline is in play.

Conclusion

It’s going to be a hot summer, and you can expect Ichorid to perform very well over the Summer Vintage tournament season, particularly in the United States. Whether you are a Dredge pilot trying to get ahead of the curve, or trying to figure out how to beat Dredge, there are some important lessons to be found in my analysis today. Dredge is equipped to beat anything, but there are soft spots that can be exploited. Unfortunately, these weaknesses are not all obvious, but deeply contextual. It’s not a matter of simply looking at the sideboard and seeing what wins, but understanding that the Dredge maindeck is built for maximum resistance. Dredge has managed to survive – and thrive — despite a substantial degree of anti-dredge sideboard tech in the general metagame.

Beating Dredge requires more than packing hateful cards. It’s sort of like addressing a chronic illness. Silver bullets are not enough. Instead, what you need is a powerful mix of answers, a powerful cocktail of solutions. You need to find the right mix, understand why your mix of answers matters and how they complement each other, and mastery over how to use them.

I hope this analysis will put you on the path to accomplishing those goals.

Until next time…

Stephen Menendian

Appendix:

1) Christian Kehler
2) Brett Piazza
3) Jamison Bryant
4) Lou Christopher
5) Antli Malin
6) Brett Piazza
7) Alex Smith
8) Lou Chritopher
9) Tony Garcia
10) Sean Orcutt
11) Chris Roberts
12) Jeremy Borcello
13) Jared Carter
14) Andrea Agnoletti
15) Marcos Deligos
16) Luzian Flenny
17) Antonio Diaz
18) Oscar Gracia
19) Fabian Moyschewitz
20) Patrick Hines
21) Billy Gogol
22) Jay Carter
23) Sacha Ravaux
24) Antoine Ciraud
25) Francisco Avalos
26) Eric Loop
27) Stephen Silverman
28) Walter Wertz
29) Marco Ardoino
30) Joan Castano
31) Matt Elias
32) Stephen Silverman
33) Jonathan Gauvin Richard

34) Simon Laincette
35) Patrick Wild
36) Justin Nguyen
37) JM Crisostomo
38) Conor Moran