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So Many Insane Plays – The DCI Strikes Back: The July 2009 Changes to the Vintage Restricted List

Read Stephen Menendian every week... at StarCityGames.com!
Monday, June 22nd – Last week, the regular update to the Banned and Restricted list threw a couple of irons into the Vintage fire. While Thirst For Knowledge was restricted, a host of cards came off the list to reenter competitive play. Stephen shares his thoughts on the changes, and wades in to the popular M10 debate.

In less than a month, Wizards of the Coast announced two sweeping changes to Vintage Magic. The first was the announcement pertaining to the M10 rules. The latest bombshell is the impending changes to the Vintage restricted list, announced last Friday. The course of Vintage has now been set, not just for the summer tournament circuit, including the Vintage Championships and the double Power Nine ICBM Open, but for the long-term future of the format. Let’s take a look at what these changes mean and how they will reshape Vintage.

Thirst For Knowledge is Restricted

1) In the last 8 months, Thirst For Knowledge was the most dominant Blue draw ever in terms of proportion of Top 8s, even worse than Gush.

I oppose the idea of restrictions on principle. As Sirlin wrote in his fantastic essay “Playing to Win.” that very little, if anything ever, needs to be banned. To paraphrase him, ‘It is the scrub’s way out.’ However, there is one exception which is universally recognized, and which Sirlin even recognizes: when you have a game totally dominated by a single element. When such a thing happens, then the game no longer becomes competitive, and it is no longer fun. Format diversity and some degree of competitive balance, two ideas which go hand in hand, are essential elements for any game.

For these reasons, format dominance is the most widely accepted ground for restricting a card in Vintage. It’s also a standard for restriction that is almost never used. In the modern history of Vintage, since there have been tournaments of sufficient size and quantity, there are very few instances of recorded format dominance.

The first of the modern restrictions, Fact or Fiction, was based on virtually no tournament data. Tournaments in the United States and Europe showed that Fact or Fiction was a high performer, but these tournaments were often tiny and backward. Fact or Fiction dominated a format feature burn decks, Suicide Black, and players who couldn’t let go of their pet Five-Color Control decks.

The restriction of Gush in June 2003 set the baseline for restrictions based on format dominance. Gush based decks made up about 36% of top 8s for most of the time preceding its restriction. It was universally recognized that Gush decks were dominating Vintage.

However, subsequent restrictions were based on other motives. First, Mind’s Desire was preemptively restricted, and did not see one day in the format as a four-of. Next, Lion’s Eye Diamond and Burning Wish were restricted, not because of format dominance, but because the deck they produced was too fast for the DCI’s sensibilities. Next, Trinisphere was restricted, again, not because of format dominance, but because it was perceived as ‘unfun’ and pushed players out of the format. Trinisphere decks were high performers, but by no means did they reach Gush-like levels in terms of tournament Top 8s. Later that year, but in the same announcement, Personal Tutor and Imperial Seal were preemptively restricted. Two years later, Gifts Ungiven was restricted, but not because of format dominance, at least not according to the data. The empirical evidence showed that Gifts decks were not even 20% of Top 8s. Finally, last year, the slate of five Blue spells saw restriction. Arguably, only Brainstorm and Merchant Scroll could be described as ‘dominant’ in terms of their numbers. Flash decks were almost never more than 10% of the field, and Gush decks never reached more than 25% of the field. On the other hand, Scroll decks were about at the level that Mana Drain decks are today, and Brainstorms were certainly more ubiquitous than any restriction in the last decade, but they didn’t fuel a dominant deck or are even considered to be a dominant engine. As for Ponder, well, I don’t even need to comment.

In the last 10 years, the evidence only really supports the argument that three cards were ‘dominant’ engines: Gush in 2003, Merchant Scroll from 2006-8, and Thirst For Knowledge from July 2008-present. The case for restriction Thirst is clear. While I haven’t broken Mana Drain decks into Thirst For Knowledge versus other, huge proportions, and probably between 80-90% of the Mana Drain decks, ran Thirst For Knowledge over the last 8 months. And since the June 2008 restrictions, Mana Drain/Thirst For Knowledge decks have totally dominated Vintage. It has put up stronger numbers than virtually anything in the history of recorded Vintage. It’s the third most played spell in the format, after Force of Will and Mana Drain.

Take a look at this chart to see how Mana Drain decks stack up over the last couple of years.

The last 8 months have been persisting and remarkable Tezzeret/Mana Drain dominance of the format. In a few weeks we’ll have the May/June metagame report and we can take a much closer look at how the metagame was evolving. Early indications suggest that the metagame will look pretty much the same as it did in the previous datasets, since the printing of Tezzeret.

Enough was enough. The metagame has had ample opportunity to adjust. It hasn’t. And it’s not for lack of people trying. People threw everything they had at Drain decks, but nothing stuck. This fact is all the more evident when you observe Top 8s littered with Drain predators, only to see a Drain deck emerge victorious in the end.

The dominance of Drain decks (fueled by Thirst For Knowledge) has persisted over such a long period of time and over such a large geographic area, that there can be no serious argument that DCI action was unwarranted. If any of the other restrictions over the last decade have been legitimate, then certainly this one was as well.

2) Blue decks still have plenty of alternative draw engines; they just aren’t as good.

When I was exploring the possible restriction of Thirst For Knowledge a few weeks ago, I noted that Mana Drain decks had plenty of tools to fall back on. First of all, we’ve reached a critical mass of restricted Blue draw spells. Most Mana Drain-based archetypes can resemble a good portion of the Blue part of the restricted list:

4 Force of Will
4 Mana Drain
1 Ancestral Recall
1 Time Walk
1 Mystical Tutor
1 Tinker
1 Brainstorm
1 Ponder
1 Merchant Scroll
1 Thirst For Knowledge
1 Gifts Ungiven
1 Fact or Fiction

We are at the point where it’s not unreasonable for Mana Drain based decks to generate most, if not all, of their card advantage from restricted cards.

However, it’s also possible to supplement this list with some of the unrestricted options for generating card advantage. For example, expect to see some lists run a pair of Night’s Whispers, or more. Expect to see cards like Mystic Remora and Dark Confidant to show up more. Also, expect other search like Impulse to see a slight uptick in usage.

However, just because Thirst is restricted does not mean that Mana Drain pilots have to rely on unrestricted Black spells or Mystic Remora for additional card advantage. Intuition + Accumulated Knowledge is still legal, and still sees a bit of play in “Drain Tendrils.” I used to be a big advocate of Intuition + AK back in the day. My team helped develop the Psychatog list using that draw engine that won the first Vintage championship, and I continued to play Psychatog into 2004 as my deck of choice. The biggest advantage of Intuition + AK is that the draw engine perfectly complements Yawgmoth’s Will. The incredible card advantage naturally draws you into Yawgmoth’s Will, which allows you to reuse that card advantage. In addition, it’s such a powerful source of card advantage that it’s fairly easy to overwhelm Drain opponents.

On the other hand, there remain serious disadvantages to Intuition + AK, reasons why it is not nearly as popular as Thirst For Knowledge. First of all, it eats up 6-7 cards maindeck. Intuition + AK requires no less than 6 cards to pull off the Intuition draw engine. That space may be more available today, now that Thirst for Knowledge is restricted. But traditionally, this has been a reason not to run it. Secondly, it is very mana intensive. Intuition + AK requires an investment of 5 mana before you draw a single card. Compare that to Thirst, where for a 3 mana investment sees three cards. Third, and for the same reason, this approach is much more susceptible to Stax and Fish, and Null Rod and Wasteland attack than otherwise might be the case. Fish and Stax decks, which apply a steady stream of pressure, can much more easily overwhelm you. Even if you can play Intuition, it may be a turn too late. The same is true of Storm combo, where you will almost never be able to resolve an Accumulated Knowledge for 3 unless you have already won the game. Your Intuitions will be for Force of Wills if you wish to avoid loss.

The alternatives are not bad, but Thirst is better. And that was the point.

3) Tez decks will survive, but they will be weakened.

Again, that’s the idea. The restriction of Thirst does not herald the end of Mana Drain based Tezzeret decks. Not by any stretch. However, it does mean that they will be weakened. Thirst was virtually universally used in Tezzeret decks because it was the best. Its restriction necessarily means that Tezzeret will be weaker than it was before.

Crop Rotation is Unrestricted

A few weeks ago I made the observation that every time in the last 10 years that the DCI has restricted more than one cards, it has later ended up reversing at least one of those decisions (with one exception). Here is the chart that graphs restrictions over the past decade.

The restrictions in the fall of 1999 were the most egregious. The DCI restricted 18 cards! Until this announcement, a third of those restrictions have been reversed. With this announcement, that number rises to half. Crop Rotation was restricted in the massive 1999 wave. In its explanatory statement, the DCI said that Crop Rotation was a “combo searcher” that enabled very quick, non-interactive kills with Tolarian Academy and Stroke of Genius or Fireball.

That concern is certainly no longer the case. The threat of Crop Rotation as a tutor for Tolarian Academy is nil. First of all, mana engines like Tolarian Academy to fuel a lethal Stroke or Fireball have been exchanged in favor of a Tendrils of Agony which can be played off of only four mana and produce the same result. As a result, Academy is much less important to combo decks. Contemporary combo decks like Ad Nauseam do not, in many cases, even use Tolarian Academy, nor is it very important to them. Decks like TPS use and abuse Tolarian, but it’s has no special status among mana accelerants. It’s just a Blue Ritual.

Nonetheless, Crop Rotation is the most dangerous and risky unrestriction of this batch. In fact, I’m very surprised to see it unrestricted. Why?

First of all, Crop Rotation is broken in 5c Stax. I actually pioneered Crop Rotation in 5c Stax many years ago, and got 9th at one of the StarCityGames.com Power 9 tournaments with Cron-style Stax. ( See my article describing the advent of Crop Rotation.)

I got 9th place at a SCG P9 tournament with the deck, so I have a special appreciation for how good Crop Rotation is in Stax:


First of all, the targets in Stax are ridiculous. An opening hand with Crop Rotation can find Mishra’s Workshop to begin to pump out lock parts without having to draw a Workshop. So it functions as a quasi-fifth Workshop. Just as importantly, it finds Strip Mine. Crucible of Worlds is one of the most important Stax lock parts. Back in the day, Stax relied on Goblin Welder to make Smokestack asymmetrical. Stax players could ramp Stack to 3 or even 4 counters, wipe out an opponent’s board, then weld out Stack. The advent of Trinisphere and Crucible changed the way that Stax decks were designed. Instead of drawing a bunch of cards to find the key lock parts, there were enough lock parts that Stax decks ditched the draw spells and started to rely on topdecks and more permanents. Instead of wildly ramping Stack, Stax decks would leave a Smokestack at set at 1 and use Crucible land recursion to keep Stack alive indefinitely, while the opponent’s board sinks into the graveyard. The restriction of Trinisphere only accelerated reliance on Crucible. Not being able to randomly shut the opponent out of the game with such consistency meant greater, not lesser, reliance on Crucible Wasteland recursion and Smokestack synergy. Also, the invention of Uba Stax, which only emerged after the restriction of Trinisphere, accelerated this trend. However, Uba Stax pioneered the use of Bazaar of Baghdad and Barbarian Ring with Crucible, technological advances eventually adopted, in a much lesser extent, by 5c Stax. This what makes Crop Rotation so amazing. Crop Rotation becomes an unrestricted tutor for Strip Mine, and loses most of its drawback with Crucible in play, since the sacrificed land can later be recurred.

I can’t overstate how powerful this will be in the Vintage metagame. Every single time someone has proposed unrestricting Crop Rotation, I have strongly disagreed. It’s not because of Tolarian Academy, Mishra’s Workshop, or even Bazaar of Baghdad (which Dredge decks may want to use Crop Rotation to find). It’s Strip Mine.

The way that Drain decks — and indeed most decks — in Vintage interact with Stax is to rely on basic lands. Basic lands create a solid manabase from which to launch a counterassault of Rebuild, Hurkyl’s Recall, Rack and Ruin, and similar weaponry. The dramatically increased access to Strip Mine will change that equation in several ways. First, it gives Stax a very nice boost, and will reduce its linearity and vulnerability to these single card strategies. Decks will now need ways to deal with Strip Mine earlier, and cards like Sacred Ground and Pithing Needle become more important. Also, straight bounce — premised on the idea of being able to ‘castle’ defensively around basic lands — will lose luster relative to cards that actually destroy the artifacts. Second, it makes Crucible of Worlds a much larger threat. Typically, the Drain pilot will let Crucible resolve, but try to counter the Smokestack or the Goblin Welder. No longer. The increased access to Strip Mine will make countering Crucible a more necessary play, and thus increases the threat density of Stax. If your opponent has already Rotated into Strip Mine, Crucible is must-counter. Even if they haven’t, the chance that they will find Strip Mine that much sooner will make you think twice.

And the beauty of it is that the second and third Crop Rotation will still have great targets. You might find Strip Mine at first, but next you might find Barbarian Ring or Bazaar of Baghdad. Post-board, you might want to find The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale for your Dredge match.

I predict that Crop Rotation should be a three-of in 5c Stax going forward.

As I mentioned, Dredge pilots might want to explore the possibility of using Crop Rotation to find Bazaar of Baghdad. I have a feeling that this won’t go very far, simply because Serum Powder is a better tool to accomplish the same objective. Still, it could show up in Mana Ichorid lists.

In terms of other fringe possibilities, I could see Crop Rotation being used in Loam decks, since you very quickly recoup the sacrifice.

And, if someone wants to build an Academy deck, well, why not? People could have some fun messing around with Crop Rotation.

Ultimately, this was a very savvy unrestrict. Crop Rotation meets all of the criteria that make for a sensible unrestriction in this Mana Drain dominated environment. It potentially sees play in a range of archetypes, none of which are Drain based. But it’s not just that it boosts non-Drain decks, in terms of general power for example, but boosting the power of Crucible. Crop Rotation provides a particular kind of interaction that should help Workshop decks (and other decks) vis-à-vis Drains. As I pointed out, it will make reliance on Workshop silver bullets like Rebuild and Hurkyl’s Recall weaker, since sitting on basic lands.

My suggestion for boosting Shop decks was to unrestrict Balance, simply because I felt that unrestricted Balance would give Shops enough power to increase their Top 8 representations to levels similar to where they were when Gush was unrestricted. However, this move has the potential to produce a similar result without having as many potentially negative consequences. For example, Balance would empower Shops relative to the field, and relative to Drains (but to a lesser overall extent), but unrestricted Crop Rotation empowers Shops relative to the field, but mostly relative to Drains. In short, the impact of unrestricted Crop Rotation is probably less overall, but much greater in the Drain matchup, and therefore targeted.

I’m very impressed. This was a counter-intuitive, but very intelligent move. It’s counter-intuitive because Crop Rotation is so powerful. Allowing Workshop decks to find Strip Mine with such ease would seem like a bad idea, as a general matter. But when you think in more detail about the kind of impact it would have, two things are clear: The unrestriction of Crop Rotation boosts non-Drain decks without providing any advantage to Drain decks (which is the goal), and the particular kinds of tactical advantages it creates for Workshop decks specifically hurt the kinds of tactical ploys typically used by blue decks. It’s probably as close as you can get to unrestricting Strip Mine. And even then, it’s surefire play. There are risks, which means that there will be skill-based decision making. Stax pilots will have to weigh the risks of early ‘all-in’ Crop Rotations.

This should make for a very interesting summer. Bravo DCI!

Enlightened Tutor

This was another card restricted in the 1999 wave of 18. In its explanatory statement, it was ambiguously described as a ‘combo searcher,’ just like Crop Rotation.

Unlike Crop Rotation, this is a card that has seen virtually no competitive play in the decade since its restriction. The first drawback, and most obvious, is that it’s White. I’ve seen janky 5c Combo lists run this as a singleton to find Black Lotus or Necro, or something along those lines, but no serious well-performing decklist has run this card. It’s a card that I’ve never endorsed for unrestriction simply because its effects are so unpredictable, and I’ve always believed that there were safer unrestricts first.

Most interestingly, I’d like to see what Parfait might look like with 4 Enlightened Tutors.


For more on this deck, read my primer here.

Enlightened Tutor might not be enough to actually make Parfait a Tier 1 competitor, but it can only improve the deck. In addition, you can actually use a silver bullet toolbox with Enlightened Tutor.

One of the reasons that unrestricting Enlightened Tutor is so surprising is that Time Vault is one of the dominant combos of the format, and this would only seem to make assembling that easier. That makes me question the wisdom of this decision. But it’s hard to imagine Drain decks using a bunch of Enlightened Tutors, and that’s the most important question. If other decks get a slight boost relative to Drains… well, mission accomplished, right?

Entomb

Entomb was restricted in March, 2003 along with Earthcraft, and both were restricted for the same reason. At the time, the Vintage and Legacy Banned and Restricted lists were linked. Any card restricted in Vintage was thereby banned in Legacy. Restricting Entomb and Earthcraft allowed the DCI to ban them in Legacy. Take a look at old 1.5 Worldgorger Dragon Combo:

Spoils Dragon

4 Duress
4 Spoils of the Vault
4 Buried Alive
4 Animate Dead
4 Dance of the Dead
2 Necromancy
4 Worldgorger Dragon
4 Squee, Goblin Nabob
1 Ambassador Laquatus
1 Sliver Queen
4 Bazaar of Baghdad
4 Dark Ritual
4 Elvish Spirit Guide
8 Swamp
4 Polluted Delta
4 Bayou

Now imagine that deck with 4 Entomb. Dark Ritual, Entomb, Animate Dead led to frequent turn 1 kills, Entomb was banned in Legacy. Since the Vintage and Legacy lists were separated, Earthcraft quickly came off the Vintage restricted list. Entomb has been sitting there much longer, on account of concerns for its tutoring power.

One of the most obvious places for Entomb is in Vintage Dredge. However, and this should be obvious, Entomb is a bad fit for Dredge decks. Dredge decks want to play turn 1 Bazaar of Baghdad and not Entomb for a Dredger. Likewise, there is no single card, not even Bridge From Below, that’s worth Entombing for. Not because such a play wouldn’t be strong, but because it’s not worth the deck space.

Perhaps Entomb will find a home in a Worldgorger Dragon combo deck, perhaps a budget one, similar to those that used to exist in Legacy. That would be neat.

But the most interesting possibility that comes to my mind is to take seriously a Loam deck. You have more tools that ever with this set of unrestrictions:

4 Mox Diamond
4 Duress
4 Thoughtseize
4 Life From the Loam
4 Entomb
4 Crop Rotation
Etc.

Entomb could find Raven’s Crime, Strip Mine, Bazaar, or whatever. Are we almost to the point where Loam could be a competitor in Vintage? I’d love to think so. If so, the time is now.

Grim Monolith

Grim Monolith is garbage, and everyone knew it. Its restriction made no sense, and that error has now been corrected. Sure, it could see use in Belcher. But it’s not better than lots of cards which are currently unrestricted. End of story.

M10 Rules Changes:

The Mulligan Rule

Mulligans are extremely time consuming in Vintage. From Belcher to Dredge, mulligans take up ungodly amounts of time. Take a look at a match I played last year where my Ichorid opponent took 15 minutes on mulligans (see round 1 of this tournament.)

This is a very sensible rule change. The downside is the loss of some strategic mulligan decisions. A small price to pay.

Battlefield, Exile etc

When I describe play-by-plays, I use the language of ‘casting’ spells, so I don’t mind this change at all.

The terminology is irrelevant to me. What does bother me is the functional changes to Wishes. I see little reason why Wishes should not be able to retrieve cards that have been “Exiled’ during the course of the game. In Gottlieb and Forsythe’s view, ‘Exiled cards are not outside the game (and you could argue that they never really were).’ Yet, by that reasoning — that cards are not outside of the game because they are easily retrieved by Wishes — also applies to sideboards. By that reasoning and our experience, sideboards are not really ‘outside’ of the game either.

The next of the Wishes simply refers to cards “outside of the game.” That’s an ambiguous statement, and we cannot infer a clear design intent (nor should we, since such a thing is virtually inherently unknowable).

I believe that the Magic Rules judge should interpret ambiguous statements broadly when a broader construction permits more interactions and more narrowly when a narrow construction permits more interactions (within the bounds of a reasonable reading of the text, of course).

I hope that this decision is reversed sometime in the near future. They’ve really hurt the functionality of cards like Burning Wish and Cunning Wish, which have seen a decent amount of Vintage play from time to time.

Mana Burn

I am a fan of the elimination of mana burn, simply because I believe that simple rules for new players is a priority. Mana Burn is an unnecessary and superfluous rule. I’m glad it’s gone. One less rule to learn.

Token Ownership

Why would someone assume that a token put into play with Forbidden Orchard would be ‘owned’ by someone other than the player who owned the effect that created it? Should it be an open question, at worst? Most Vintage players who play Oath have tokens on hand for Orchard. Gottlieb and Forsythe didn’t provide a very good rationale for this rules change. Plus, in the face of this ambiguity, they eliminated the cool Brand combo. My rule of construction in the face of such an ambiguity would be to choose the rule that increases interactions. I’m not a fan of what they did here.

Combat Damage

Combat is not very important to Vintage, and most creatures that see play in Vintage are utility creatures. The loss of the ability to stack damage is a significant loss to Vintage, as cards like Qasali Pridemage and Triskelion lose value (especially the latter) for no real benefit.

In my view, people are confusing ‘intuitive’ with ‘less complex.’ The new combat rules may be more intuitive, but I do not agree that they are less complex. If anything, I’m afraid that Wizards is making combat more complex.

Two examples bear this out. First of all, the declare blockers step is now the most important step in the combat phase. This misnomer will lead to numerous errors, where uninformed players are too late to make critical plays that will affect the resolution of combat damage. Second, the new ‘ordering’ rule is something that will produce all kinds of confusion. It is, by definition, an increase in the complexity of the rules system. For example, explain banding now. I have a feeling that changing lifelink and deathtouch are just the beginning of the changes necessitated by this overall change.

As a change, I’m somewhat indifferent to this new rule. But as for the claim that it makes things less complicated, I say that’s just untrue.

Closing Comments

The significance of the new banned and restricted list goes beyond the changes wrought in the immediate metagame, and what the metagame will look like moving forward. Instead, it fundamentally constrains what Vintage can look like in the future and what is possible going forward. These changes will be far reaching.

The path taken here, to restrict Thirst, indicates an intent to keep Gush restricted. My personal preference would have been to unrestrict Gush as a way of helping check Drains and increase metagame diversity. I believe that a year ago — at the height of the Gush metagame – we could have unrestricted Fact or Fiction and Gifts Ungiven to help compete against Gush, Workshop, and Flash decks. Both cards would get hammered by Painter decks, just as Flash and Tyrant Oath decks did. GroAtog, with 8 Duress effects, would have done something similar.

That road — that vision of Vintage — is a road that is far removed from where we are today. The DCI has committed to a different path instead, and has made the road to this alternative future more remote.

However, I do not want to suggest that the road the DCI has taken is the wrong path. It is merely one of several paths, and it is one that is quite sensible. The DCI restricted Thrist and unrestricted cards that would help fight Drains. It’s not that the restriction of Thirst alone will help bring greater diversity to the format, but that the unrestrictions combined with the restrictions should put us on that road. I’m hopeful.

The DCI’s decisions here are smart. In some ways, they are as smart as the restrictions last year were problematic. Last year’s restrictions were overbroad, and helped create the dilemma they are now attempting to solve. If those mistakes last year had not been made, then I think we would have a very different metagame to be working with. For example, in the Gush metagame, Tezzeret wouldn’t even be playable. Time Vault would be far less of a problem, if at all. Of course, Gush decks could try to play Time Vault, but Flash makes Time Vault look like a piker. And Painter and GroAtog and Tyrant Oath would not be optimal with Time Vault combo.

The Buehler era of the Vintage restricted list was characterized by respectful caution, minimalism, and restraint. The Erik Lauer era is characterized by a much more proactive and sweeping approaches, both with respect to restriction and unrestriction. More changes have occurred in the last year of the Lauer era than the entire time of the Buehler era. In many ways, the Buehler era ushered in the renaissance in Vintage. Despite some missteps, Erik Lauer is clearly a smart man and ‘gets’ Vintage. The decisions taken last week will strengthen Vintage and put it on the right path for some time come.

This summer should be a blast!

Until next time…

Stephen Menendian