This project came about because I was learning how to play the Heartbeat of Spring deck, and wondered what minimum tools were required to win the game. What cards do I need to win with six mana in play? Is there any hand that wins from five mana?
I turned to the definitive solution - I wrote a program to calculate the optimal plays for any given hand, and generated a list of hands that can potentially win the game. At the risk of information overload, I even ran through various scenarios involving disruption such as Cranial Extraction or Kami of Ancient Law.
Obviously anyone reading this list would still need skill and experience to play around counters and other disruption, as well as understand the various matchups. I decided there was no sense leaving things incomplete, and hence developed this into a complete primer on Heartbeat strategy.
The Deck
This is a good general list to start with; open to many variations covered subsequently.
General Strategy
Although most people have a good idea of how the deck works, I will briefly summarize for the sake of completeness.
Your first few turns are spent using Sakura-Tribe Elder and Kodama's Reach to accelerate your mana, using Sensei's Divining Top and transmute to fill your hand with combo pieces, and using Remand, Muddle the Mixture, and Elder to slow your opponent down.
Once you reach a critical mass of cards and lands, you use Heartbeat of Spring in combination with Early Harvest to generate a large amount of mana. Weird Harvest can fetch several Drifts of Phantasms, which transmute for additional Early Harvests to generate even more mana. Finally, you transmute for Invoke the Firemind or Maga, Traitor to Mortals, although you will usually simply fetch a Maga as part of your Weird Harvest. This final spell then wins the game.
Typically, you don't want to play Heartbeat of Spring or Weird Harvest until the turn you plan to win, as these cards assist your opponent as well. Sometimes Heartbeat of Spring is a safe play if your opponent is mana flooded anyway; likewise, sometimes Weird Harvest is a safe play if your opponent has missed land drops and will be unable to make use of the additional creatures. Both of these plays should always be considered a calculated risk, however- they are never completely safe.
Using mana acceleration and transmuting also has the nice side effect of shuffling your deck, so you should be using your Divining Top after each shuffle to improve the quality of your hand- depending on the matchup, you will be hunting for counter-magic, redundant combo pieces, or disruption for aggro decks such as Savage Twister and additional Elders.
When fetching land, you generally want access to at least two Forests and two Islands. Note that the deck is slightly biased towards Forests as your green cards will fetch you Islands, but your blue cards clearly won't help you get Forests unless you get lucky with a Remand. I haven't tested a 12 Forest / 8 Island configuration, but I would not be opposed to it in theory.
You will need a Swamp or Mountain in play during your final turn, but you should typically hold on to it until then unless you're positive your opponent isn't playing land destruction of any form, or your only land search is Sakura-Tribe Elder in which case you may need to fetch it earlier than you would prefer. This, of course, doesn't apply when you need the splash mana for one of your specialized cards, such as Savage Twister.
Under uncommon circumstances, you can combo for less than the full amount, cast Maga, and then attack with it to finish your opponent off. As most decks have many ways of dealing with creatures in play, this is mostly a desperation tactic game 1. After sideboarding, however, this becomes a more viable gambit as many players will take most of their permanent control out of their deck.
When to Go Off
Most of the time, you will need to do a little less than twenty damage to your opponent, as most decks play self-damaging manabases.
The easiest goal to keep in mind is Weird Harvest, Heartbeat of Spring in play, and at least six lands untapped; or Muddle the Mixture, Heartbeat of Spring, and at least seven lands untapped. (This second one only does nineteen damage by itself)
Most other scenarios with at least six lands should have you aiming for these goals, and your early turns should be spent building a hand with this goal in mind.
Attempting to win with five lands requires very specific four-card combinations, and only two of them do at least twenty damage. Since it is rarely a good idea to drop Heartbeat before “going off,” you may just want to memorize these special situations and avoid trying to go off without six lands otherwise.
A list of potential winning hands is covered later, but keep in mind that all scenarios assume your opponent is not trying to disrupt you during the combo. This is a reasonable assumption for most aggro decks and non-Blue control decks. Later sections outline various strategies to work around your opponent's answers.
Main Deck Card Choices
The Heartbeat deck only has about four or five flexible slots in the main deck, but there is a lot of variation possible within these slots.
What to cut - The only standard cards that can reasonably be cut are a single Remand and a single Kodama's Reach, although I personally do not recommend either. Some players also cut one of the win conditions, but this is incredibly risky and definitely not worth the slot gained.
This leaves you with between three and five slots for cards to tune your deck against your perceived metagame, most likely selected from the cards below.
Recollect, Weird Harvest, Compulsive Research - These cards improve your general consistency in some way. (Note that Weird Harvest here refers to a second or third Weird Harvest, as clearly you have to run at least one.)
I personally do not find Recollect to be useful except against discard. Unfortunately, the best discard removes things from the game (Castigate, Cranial Extraction). Since these cards probably account for about 75% of the discard you will face, I don't feel that Recollect has any real use. Certainly, a Recollect can also help recover a failed combo if you've used too many pieces, but you should be able to avoid these situations with practice.
Additional Weird Harvests simply increase the likelihood of drawing them naturally - and as Weird Harvest is a card that can win the game all by itself, this is certainly tempting. I recommend running these in a discard-heavy metagame, as no amount of discard will stop you from simply winning when you draw Weird Harvest with enough lands.
Compulsive Research simply improves your consistency across the board, and is a solid if unspectacular choice if you're unsure of the metagame or would rather outplay your opponents than try to deal with their threats.
Pyroclasm, Savage Twister, Boomerang, Naturalize, Crime / Punishment - These cards deal with your opponent's permanents in some way.
Pyroclasm and Savage Twister deal with problem creatures (Azorius Guildmage, Kami of Ancient Law) as well as being really good at slowing down an aggressive draw from your opponent.
Boomerang and Naturalize only deal with a single problem permanent, but do so cheaply. I don't see any reason to run Naturalize, as Boomerang can hit more permanents, and you're going to wait until right before you combo to cast it anyway, so returning to hand is basically the same as destroying.
Punishment is the most flexible solution, dealing with multiple permanents of any type. It isn't quite as good at stopping aggro decks, but the ability to take out multiple Pithing Needles or Ivory Masks is significant.
My personal recommendation is a single Crime / Punishment to deal with almost any problem permanent, and a single Pyroclasm to deal with aggressive draws as well as an additional way to deal with Guildmage and Kami. Savage Twister is really only necessary against Zoo and Gruul decks, due to the abundance of creatures over two toughness, and Punishment for two will often be superior anyway.
Research / Development - Research is basically used post-Cranial Extraction to undo the damage, although Development is certainly playable in a pinch. It can also fight Castigate and Hide / Seek in a similar way. I don't recommend running this main unless you know your metagame is filled with these cards.
Bound / Determined - Just as Research is a Cranial Extraction hoser, this is a counterspell hoser. This one is better suited for main deck inclusion, as it cycles, but I prefer the next card. Bound can also be used as an expensive Recollect if necessary, but you have to be in a pretty bad situation for that to be a good play.
Train of Thought - This card is almost as good as Determined against counterspells, as it helps fill your hand with enough combo pieces to work around counter-magic. It also doubles as a decent answer to discard. Keep in mind that most counterspells can only counter a single copy of Train of Thought, but Voidslime can counter the Replicate trigger and deny you almost everything.
Sideboard Card Choices
Most of the cards listed as options for the main deck are viable sideboard cards as well, but some additional options are listed here. An exact sideboard is going to depend on your metagame, of course. An alternate sideboarding plan known as the “man plan” is covered in a later section.
Gigadrowse / Dosan the Falling Leaf / Defense Grid - These are your anti-control cards - mainly against counterspells. Gigadrowse is by far and away the best option once in hand, but unlike the other two, cannot be transmuted for. However, if you have to transmute for an anti-control card, they are going to be ready for it, and hence those two options lose most of their value.
Gigadrowse allows you to tap your opponent out end-of-turn, and can really only be countered by Voidslime and, to a lesser degree, Rewind. Even against those, it allows you to start the counter battle on their turn, leaving you to combo out much easier. Against Rewind, you should Remand the copy they target with Rewind.
Carven Caryatid - This is one of your best additional defenses against aggro decks.
Pithing Needle - This deals with Kamis, Guildmages, and Flectomancers, as well as certain threats like Meloku, but overall is a very narrow answer that you can't even transmute for.
Shadow of Doubt - This is primarily for the mirror matchup, as it counters transmute, Elder, Reach, and Weird Harvest, while drawing a card.
Blood Moon - I've seen this in a couple of sideboards, but I don't think it helps you win or survive any match that you don't already have a solid game against. It certainly can lead to random wins against Urzatron or three-color decks, but I'd rather have something else against Zoo. Still, a card that can win random games all by itself is worth considering if you have an extra slot.
Bottled Cloister - This is your best anti-discard strategy, as it both protects your hand from discard (including Cranial Extraction) and lets you draw extra cards to make up for previous discards.
Loaming Shaman - This is a transmutable reset button that lets you start your combo over if you've used too many pieces. I wouldn't run it in a normal sideboard, but it can double as a creature for the “man plan.”
Viridian Shaman / Indrik Stomphowler - Additional generic answers. Shaman is transmutable, but only hits artifacts; Stomphowler cannot be searched for, but can also hit enchantments such as Ivory Mask. I don't feel these do anything that Punishment doesn't do better.
Voidslime - Additional counterspells that can't be hit with Spell Snare and have some other fringe benefits. I haven't found a matchup where I really want these, instead of some more direct answer or threat. Against counterspells, Determined is always going to cost one less, draws a card, and doesn't require you to combo off before fighting your counter war.
Sideboarding Strategy
The one habit to avoid is simply trimming a card off of various four-ofs. Each card removed should be justifiable, and you should be taking extra care not to harm your core combo (assuming you aren't using the “man plan” covered later).
In general, you will be siding out Remands against fast-paced aggro matchups, especially if you are siding in the much superior Carven Caryatids. Your early game should be focused on building up your combo as fast as possible, and a Remand doesn't usually buy you much time against aggro's cheap threats. You will also side out Train of Thought and any other control-specific cards you might have.
Against discard, you should leave the Train in, of course. Against strategies that don't use discard or counters, you can afford to take out your Invoke as well if room is tight. One or two Kodama's Reach can also be trimmed against any matchup without a critical mass of counters or discard. Against counters, however, you want a massive land advantage, and against discard you want shuffle effects as well as enough land to win with a topdecked Weird Harvest.
Against counter-based strategies, your mass removal can come out, although a Punishment should usually stay for any stray problem cards such as Pithing Needles. You can also trim a Heartbeat, but not Early Harvests as they will be crucial to help survive counter battles.
Any other silver bullets should be evaluated in the context of each matchup, although you should keep in mind anything they might be siding in. For this reason, Crime / Punishment should very rarely leave the main deck.
Playing Against Aggro (Zoo, Gruul)
This is one of the easier matchups, in terms of decision-making. You are basically racing and simply need to evaluate their damage potential and adjust your strategy as necessary.
The first thing to remember is that you are not forced to sacrifice Sakura-Tribe Elder at the earliest opportunity. If your opponent holds back with a one-toughness creature, you prevent more damage leaving Elder on the board. If your opponent only has two-power creatures, consider saving the Elder for one turn to potentially block a three- or four-power creature, or a creature equipped with Umezawa's Jitte. You can also play Drift of Phantasms as a simple wall in order to slow down your opponent.
You should go for the board-sweeper (Pyroclasm, Punishment, or Savage Twister) if you can do so without delaying your combo for more than a turn, or obviously if necessary for survival.
Your main goal should be to avoid dropping below nine life, where you are extremely vulnerable to burn. If their attack next turn will put you to eight or less life, you should either be going off this turn, or doing something to slow them down, even if it means playing a Drift of Phantasms and having to find another combo card later.
You should avoid dropping Heartbeat of Spring early (before going off) unless your opponent is clearly mana flooded and has enough mana to cast whatever burn spells he could be holding anyway. An early Weird Harvest is also unsafe, unless your opponent misses a land drop. Most aggro decks can fetch some combination of Kami of Ancient Law, Azorius Guildmage, Giant Solifuge, and discard creatures, setting you back by more than you gain from Harvesting.
Playing Against Discard (Orzhov)
The main strategy to fighting discard is to keep your key spells on top of your library using Sensei's Divining Top until you need to draw them. Any card you have multiples of stays in your hand, while key cards you have only seen single copies of should float on top of your deck. You can keep two such spells safe in this way- one you will draw normally, and the second you will draw with the Top.
Against creature-based discard (most B/W decks) casting Weird Harvest early is extremely unsafe, as you will immediately be facing multiple Kami of Ancient Law and/or discard creatures. Heartbeat of Spring, however, can be played starting around turn 4 or 5, to protect it from discard. Assuming your opponent has been playing their hand out normally, the extra mana from Hearbeat will not enable them to do anything they were not already capable of.
Playing Against Counterspells
The first thing to do when playing against counterspells is to evaluate what types of counters your opponent is playing with, based on their mana and cards they have already played. You should be facing some combination of Mana Leak, Spell Snare, Remand, Hinder, Voidslime, Muddle the Mixture, and Rewind.
When you try to combo out, you should keep as much extra mana floating as possible, to play around Mana Leak. Your final kill spell should be for your opponent's exact life total, again leaving as much mana floating as possible - mostly Blue, with additional Black or Red to recast your win condition if remotely feasible.
The only time you should go for overkill is if your opponent has Lightning Helix mana, in which case you should clearly aim three points over, or six if necessary.
If your opponent attempts to counter your spells while going off, you can Remand your own spell and simply recast it. Once you cast your kill spell, however, you are mostly limited to Muddle, except for the rare scenario where you have mana to recast your kill spell. If your opponent is bad and tries to counter your Muddles, however, your Remands become useful again, as you can Remand your Muddle and use it again. If you use Remand on their counters, they can simply cast them again, making it a worse Mana Leak - only really useful if they're tight on mana.
With enough combo parts and land, you can go off for just enough mana to win, and if countered, Remand your win condition (if your opponent didn't Remand it for you) and go off again either immediately (preferred) or next turn.
Spell Snare and Muddle the Mixture (from your opponent) are unique because they can typically only be used against your counters, and not your win condition. This makes your Remands useful (on your first counter) as well as requiring them to have a hard counter first. They can also use Muddle on your combo pieces, but this can be defeated with redundant spells.
Your general strategy against counters should be to build a “perfect” hand and only go for the kill once you've had sufficient time to set up - preferably during a turn when your opponent has tapped low on mana. You can safely cast Heartbeat early except against Wildfire decks - your opponent will get to use Heartbeat mana to counter your spells anyway, and if they use Heartbeat mana to cast threats, they have less mana to stop your combo. This strategy doesn't apply after you sideboard in Gigadrowse, however, as you now plan to start a war on their turn, and therefore you want to limit their mana as much as possible.
Playing Against Land Destruction (Magnivore)
Wildfire can be painful early, so save a counterspell for it. Aside from that, your Elders and Reaches should allow you to reach enough land. The main threat is not being short on mana, but being color-screwed. You should not play both your Swamp and Mountain early - however, if you have access to both, you can certainly play the Mountain as a decoy to protect your Islands.
A good opponent will usually go for your Islands, since you need two to do any transmuting. You should focus on retrieving Islands, transmuting for combo pieces whenever possible unless you smell a Wildfire. If you get enough transmuting done early, you can go off with one or even no Islands, although you ideally need a little Blue mana to counter the inevitable Remand.
An early Heartbeat of Spring is not recommended, as it gives your opponent the ability to do multiple things per turn and they are not likely to run out of gas with their card drawing. An early Weird Harvest, however, can be a good gamble, as Magnivore won't usually be a threat yet, and you can both build up your mana with Elders and grab a few combo pieces.
The Fallacy of Life Gain
With the current level of playable life gain in Standard, most decks are capable of gaining four to eight life during the course of a normal game. Any deck playing Umezawa's Jitte can gain four life per turn unhindered.
Life gain is only a temporary problem for the Heartbeat player. The first occurrence of life gain will often set you back a turn, but additional life gained has a diminishing effect on your fundamental turn. Basically, even constant life gain, such as a Jitte, is linear - your opponent's life will go up 4 points a turn. Your combo, however, is exponential - each turn you have to play a land and draw a potential combo piece will increase your final kill spell by between 10 and 50%.
Hence, you may want to wait an extra turn if your opponent has gained a bit of life, and you can afford to - but you will rarely need to delay longer.
As a reminder, for the three people under a rock that don't know, blocking with Sakura-Tribe Elder and sacrificing will prevent a blocked creature from gaining Umezawa's Jitte counters.
Working Around Cranial Extraction
These strategies assume you don't have access to Research to “undo” a Cranial Extraction, or perhaps you've been hit multiple times. You should wait to cast Research until you are ready to go off, as you will be in much better shape using Research to undo two Cranial Extractions than you will be if you Research after one Cranial and then get hit with the second Cranial. Being short two Early Harvest and two Heartbeat of Spring will rarely harm your final turn.
If you get your Early Harvests removed via Cranial Extraction, you aren't likely to win in a single turn. This would require a minimum of eleven land and three Heartbeats in hand, plus Maga, and even then you only get twenty-one mana. You'll probably need to bite the bullet and play out Heartbeats over multiple turns.
If, however, your opponent removes Heartbeat of Spring with Cranial Extraction, there are many combinations that can win from ten (or even nine) land. If you manage to get three Early Harvests and a Maga in hand, you can win from eight land. The drawback to this method is that you need to keep some of your combo pieces in hand, where they are vulnerable to further discard. If you don't have access to Bottled Cloister, you should focus on building up your land base - a single Weird Harvest still wins from twelve land, and a single Muddle the Mixture still gets 22 mana from fourteen land.
You can also hide cards on top of your library with Sensei's Divining Top, having access to two when needed. With that in mind, two-card combos that don't utilize Heartbeats include Early Harvest plus Weird Harvest (ten land), Drift plus Muddle or Weird (eleven land), Early plus Muddle (eleven land), Weird plus Maga (eleven land), Drift plus Early (fourteen land), and Drift plus Drift (fifteen land) A few of these combos only hit 21 or 22 mana.
If a non-Heartbeat player learns anything from this, it should be that Early Harvest is almost always the right choice for Cranial Extraction - not Heartbeat of Spring.
Working Around Suppression Field
The main thing this prevents is cleanly going off with only six or seven land in play. Most hands simply require one or two additional lands in play to go off under Suppression Field. Ultimately, this shouldn't slow you down more than a turn under normal scenarios, and probably isn't even worth bothering to remove from play.
Working Around Azorius Guildmage
The good news is that you can pretty much bait your opponent's Guildmage activations, as they are virtually forced to counter any use of transmute. If they don't, you can easily build up a winning hand of Harvests and Heartbeats, or fetch a board clearing spell. The bad news is that unless your opponent is bad and counters Sakura-Tribe Elder or Sensei's Divining Top activations, you will need to do some work.
If your opponent has at least four lands untapped, you can't afford to drop Heartbeat before transmuting, as that gives them two Guildmage activations instead of one (with only three lands, you can declare your attack to clear their mana pool and prevent them from getting their second usage) You then need to build up your mana and hand until you reach a critical mass of transmute cards - enough to have one (or even two) countered and still have a winning hand left over (and enough mana to use it). Unfortunately, this also gives them time to build up more mana for more activations.
Therefore, you should be looking at as many cards as possible with Sensei's Divining Top, looking for removal for the Guildmage, as this is still your best out. You can also simply draw into enough Early Harvests and Heartbeats during this time. Realistically, this gives you several ways to break out from under the Guildmage, depending on what draws your Top gives you.
Working Around Pithing Needle
A single Pithing Needle on Drift of Phantasms can hurt - the only way to really win with that on the table is to naturally draw into a combination of Early Harvests and Heartbeats, with the help of Divining Top and shuffle effects. Unlike Azorius Guildmage, which had the potential to be overwhelmed, you simply cannot “out-transmute” a Pithing Needle.
On the positive side, you will still be able to transmute a Muddle the Mixture into your chosen answer to Pithing Needle, and then go off unhindered. Realistically, this plan should succeed unless you are under significant pressure, as most decks running Pithing Needle will have few, if any, ways to disrupt you once you actually break free.
Working Around Kami of Ancient Law
A Kami of Ancient Law on the table will require an average of 1.45 additional lands to fight through. This is actually a rather meaningless number, calculated by simulating a variety of potential hands, and a bit deceptive. Like most methods of disruption, the Kami hurts most early in the game. There are no realistic hands that win with less than eight lands on the table against a Kami. You can still attempt to go off with less lands - as long as you accept that you are simply doing so to get the Kami off the table and make another attempt next turn.
To win with exactly eight lands is easiest with the combination of Early Harvest, Heartbeat, and Weird Harvest. This requires the somewhat non-intuitive play of casting Early Harvest first, then Heartbeat of Spring. The only other way to win with eight lands is with three or more Harvests / Heartbeats and a Maga.
Once you're start going off against a Kami, simply remember to at least tap out in response to him destroying your Heartbeat - in some cases, you may also want to cast additional Early Harvests in response, but not if you plan on casting another Heartbeat.
As a final note, since Kami of Ancient Law is typically run alongside many other creatures, you will probably need to answer with a Pyroclasm or Punishment at some point during the game, making it less likely that you will have to actually play around it.
Working Around Mortify
If you have good reason to suspect your opponent has a Mortify in hand, and you have the ability to do so, you should play around it in the same way you would play around a Kami of Ancient Law. The primary difference, of course, is that you can't preempt a Mortify with a Pyroclasm or Punishment - you are basically forced to play into it. Don't forget that they only need two land (or a single Orzhov Basilica) to cast Mortify with Heartbeat in play.
Working Around Goblin Flectomancer
This sideboard strategy was mostly developed for the Team PTQ season, so you probably aren't as likely to see it anymore, but it's quite effective and worth covering.
A Goblin Flectomancer on the table will require an average of 3.83 additional lands to fight through. Although this is another meaningless number, it shows the surprising strength of this annoyance. This annoyance is magnified when you realize that the Flectomancer tends to show up in decks that run a small number of larger creatures - i.e., the ones you are less likely to want Pyroclasm or Punishment against. It also tends to accompany other counterspell-type cards, and can even undo an earlier Gigadrowse, bringing their counter-magic back online.
Because of this, your best course of action is to attempt to remove the Goblin Flectomancer where possible. Against a Flectomancer, there are no four-card hands that win from eight land. You will either require quite a bit more mana than normal, or redundant Early Harvests on top of a normal combo hand.
The Man Plan
An alternate sideboarding strategy involves dedicating between four and fifteen of your sideboard slots to creatures. This allows you to sideboard out part or all of your combo in certain matchups - either against decks that will be significantly weaker against a creature-based strategy, or against decks that will potentially remove all of their creature control cards when sideboarding against your normal combo.
Often, this becomes a battle of wits as you attempt to keep your opponent from properly guessing your exact sideboarding plan each game. As the “man plan” has fallen out of favor with many players, you can gain an additional element of surprise by using it game 3 if you did not use it game 2.
You should always shuffle in all fifteen cards of your sideboard, then remove fifteen cards, to keep your opponent guessing as to your plan. This holds true even if you don't have the “man plan” in your sideboard, as you may cause your opponent to bring or keep in dead cards as they prepare for your non-existent creatures.
If you are sideboarding out only part of the combo, you can usually take out one or two Heartbeats and an Early Harvest, as well as a Kodama's Reach and one of your win conditions. This is in addition to any cards you would normally take out in a matchup.
If you plan on removing the entire combo, you have at least twelve cards you can remove- 4 Early Harvest, 4 Heartbeat of Spring, and 4 Drift of Phantasms. The Maga is also an easy cut, although it occasionally can do the last few points of damage.
Some options for inclusion:
Meloku, The Clouded Mirror / Ryusei, The Falling Star / Keiga, The Tide Star / Iwamori of the Open Fist - These are grouped together as they are particularly effective against aggro strategies. I don't recommend Iwamori simply because you'll never wait it against a control deck.
Simic Sky Swallower / Godo, Bandit Warlord / Tatsumasa, The Dragon's Fang - These, along with Meloku, tend to be better against control strategies, as they are much harder to deal with effectively once on the table. Obviously, Godo and Tatsumasa go together, preferably with at least one Umezawa's Jitte.
Vinelasher Kudzu - Vinelasher Kudzu is easily the best creature to use if you only want to dedicate four slots to this plan - it allows you to drop an early threat that must be dealt with, while you continue to build towards your combo.
Umezawa's Jitte - These really only become an option if you've already got at least ten creatures to side in. I personally don't recommend them, except for a singleton copy if you're running Godo. Against control they are unnecessary, and against aggro, if you go with the “man plan” at all, you want threats that stand well on their own.
Specific Scenarios
All scenarios assume you've already played your land for the turn, and ignore colored mana requirements - if you have at least two Forest, two Island, and a Swamp, you should be fine. All scenarios also end with at least 21 mana and a win condition in hand - either via Weird Harvest or transmuting. (Although 21 mana is only enough to deal eighteen damage, this is often enough in an environment where everyone is playing lands that deal damage.)
Some scenarios that only involve Early Harvest, Heartbeat of Spring, and a win condition (or Drift) have not been listed here as the math is relatively straightforward. Win conditions that require more than four cards (in hand or in play) have generally not been covered.
A complete listing of all potential hands of four or less cards can be obtained in Excel spreadsheet format at this link. This lists the number of lands required to go off against various opposition for each hand, including whether you get 18, 20, or 24+ damage. I'm sure no one will try to use this tool as a cheat-sheet, especially while playing Magic: Online. Just keep in mind that some hands are not as intuitive as others, so plan your entire combo out before starting.
4 Lands in Play
I was unable to find any winning hand with four lands in play that didn't include at least three Early Harvest and two Heartbeat of Spring, as well as a way to fetch a win condition. Due to the unlikelihood of having such an exact hand, I quickly stopped worrying about this scenario.
4 Lands in Play plus Heartbeat
However, if you already have a Heartbeat of Spring in play, there are some slightly simpler ways to win-
A) Heartbeat + Early + Weird = 42 mana
B) Heartbeat + Drift + Weird = 28 mana
C) Heartbeat + Early + Muddle = 28 mana
D) Early + Early + Weird = 26 mana
E) Early + Drift + Weird = 24 mana
These scenarios still depend on four specific cards (counting the Heartbeat you played last turn) and require a bit of risk (from playing said Heartbeat) but may come up occasionally.
5 Lands in Play
Winning from five lands basically requires a number of combo pieces already in hand.
F) Heartbeat + Heartbeat + Early + Weird = 33 mama
G) Heartbeat + Early + Early + Weird = 28 mana
H) Heartbeat + Early + Early + Muddle = 21 mana
I) Heartbeat + Early + Drift + Weird = 21 mana
These were the only viable solutions I found that only required four cards.
5 Lands in Play plus Heartbeat
For these hands, I have listed the “worst case scenario” requiring the most transmuting, and left better hands unlisted, only noting special exceptions.
J) Drift + Drift + Muddle = 25 mana
Any hand with at least two three-mana pieces and a Muddle or Weird is a winner (except for Heartbeat + Heartbeat + ?).
K) Drift + Drift + Drift + Maga = 24 mana
Any hand with at least three three-mana pieces and a win condition is a winner. (again, except for Heartbeat + Heartbeat + Heartbeat + ?)
*) Drift + Early + Early / Maga = 21 mana
L) Drift + Weird = 22 mana
*) Heartbeat / Early + Early / Weird + Maga = 22 mana (minimum)
M) Early + Muddle = 25 mana
This obviously works with a Weird Harvest instead of a Muddle, generating 37 mana instead.
6 Lands in Play
*) Heartbeat + Drift / Early + Weird = 24 / 38 mana
*) Heartbeat + Early + Muddle = 24 mana
*) Drift + Early + Early + Heartbeat / Muddle / Weird = 21 / 21 / 27 mana
*) Drift + Drift + Heartbeat + Muddle / Weird = 23 / 27 mana
6 Lands in Play plus Heartbeat
*) Weird = 24 mana
This is our first scenario where Weird Harvest alone can win the game. This is worth noting as a general goal - any hand that results in Heartbeat in play, six mana untapped, and Weird Harvest in your hand is a winner. This is also your standard sequence - search for three Drifts and a Maga, and Early Harvest three times.
*) Drift + Muddle / Weird = 30 / 36 mana
*) Heartbeat + Muddle + Heartbeat / Maga = 24 / 30 mana
*) Drift + Drift + Drift (Maga) = 21 mana
Any hand with at least two three-mana pieces and a Drift or win condition is usually a winner (except for Heartbeat + Heartbeat + ?). If at least one of those is an Early Harvest or you already have a win condition, you'll get at least 24 mana.
7 Lands in Play
*) Early + Early + Weird = 22 mana
Add any other combo piece or a Sakura-Tribe Elder and you break 23 mana or more.
*) Heartbeat + Drift / Early + Muddle / Weird = 32 mana (minimum)
*) Heartbeat + Drift + Drift + Drift / Early = 21 / 24 mana
*) Drift + Drift + Early + Muddle / Weird = 27 / 31 mana
*) Heartbeat + Heartbeat + Early + Drift = 22 mana
7 Lands in Play plus Heartbeat
*) Muddle = 22 mana
This is our first scenario where Muddle the Mixture alone probably wins the game - although you'll need a little extra kick to get the full 20 damage. (Add a Heartbeat, Early Harvest, or win condition.)
*) Drift + Drift + Drift = 27 mana
*) Drift + Maga = 22 mana
8 Lands in Play
*) Drift / Early + Early + Muddle / Weird = 26 mana (minimum)
*) Heartbeat + Heartbeat + Weird = 24 mana
*) Heartbeat / Early + Weird + Maga = 26 mana
*) Drift + Drift + Drift + Muddle / Weird / Early = 21 / 24 / 24 mana
*) Heartbeat / Early + Heartbeat / Early + Drift + Drift = 25 mana (minimum)
*) Early + Early + Early + Muddle = 39 mana
8 Lands in Play plus Heartbeat
*) Muddle = 51 mana
Now, Muddle the Mixture alone definitively wins.
9 Lands in Play
*) Early / Heartbeat + Weird = 34 / 42 mana
*) Drift + Drift + Heartbeat / Muddle / Weird = 21 / 35 / 39 mana
*) Drift + Early / Heartbeat + Maga = 21 / 24 mana
*) Early + Muddle + Maga = 30 mana
*) Drift + Drift + Drift + Drift = 27 mana
*) Heartbeat + Heartbeat + Heartbeat + Muddle = 36 mana
10 Lands in Play
*) Drift + Weird = 26 mana
*) Early / Heartbeat + Muddle = 38 / 34 mana
11 Lands in Play
*) Drift + Muddle = 28 mana
*) Drift + Drift + Drift = 23 mana
*) Weird + Maga = 26 mana
12 Lands in Play
*) Weird = 30 mana
At 12 lands, Weird Harvest and an empty board wins you the game.
14 Lands in Play
*) Muddle = 22 mana
At 14 lands, Muddle the Mixture and an empty board probably wins you the game.
Solution Key
This section describes the actions required for a sampling of the lower mana scenarios. The series of letters after Weird lists the cards you retrieve - some combination of Maga, Sakura, and Drift. Transmute cards list the card you transmute into. Playing a Sakura assumes that you immediately sacrifice it for a land.
To run any scenario you please, all you need is a bit of experience with Perl. The full Perl source to run any scenario, including through disruption, is available if you require it. Come ask in the forums.
4 lands plus Heartbeat-
B) Heartbeat; Drift -> Early; Early; Weird -> MSDDD; Drift -> Early; Early; Sakura; Drift -> Early; Early; Drift -> Early; Early
C) Heartbeat; Muddle -> Weird; Early; Weird -> MSDDD; Drift -> Early; Early; Sakura; Drift -> Early; Early; Drift -> Early; Early
D) Early; Weird -> MSDDDD; Sakura; Early; Drift -> Heartbeat; Heartbeat; Drift -> Early; Early; Drift -> Heartbeat; Heartbeat; Drift -> Early; Early
E) Drift -> Heartbeat; Heartbeat; Early; Weird -> MDDD; Drift -> Early; Early; Drift -> Early; Early; Drift -> Early; Early
5 lands-
F) Heartbeat; Early; Heartbeat; Weird -> MDDD; Drift -> Early; Early; Drift -> Early; Early; Drift -> Early; Early
G) Heartbeat; Early; Weird -> MSDDDD; Early; Drift -> Heartbeat; Heartbeat; Drift -> Early; Early; Drift -> Heartbeat; Heartbeat; Sakura; Drift -> Early; Early
H) Heartbeat; Early; Muddle -> Weird; Early; Weird -> MSDDD; Sakura; Drift -> Early; Early; Drift -> Heartbeat; Heartbeat; Drift -> Early; Early
I) Heartbeat; Early; Drift -> Early; Early; Weird -> MSDDD; Sakura; Drift -> Early; Early; Drift -> Heartbeat; Heartbeat; Drift -> Early; Early
5 lands plus Heartbeat-
J) Drift -> Heartbeat; Heartbeat; Drift -> Early; Early; Muddle -> Weird; Weird -> MDD; Drift -> Early; Early; Drift -> Early; Early
K) Drift -> Heartbeat; Heartbeat; Drift -> Early; Early; Drift -> Early; Early
L) Drift -> Early; Early; Weird -> MSSDDD; Drift -> Early; Early; Sakura; Sakura; Drift -> Early; Early; Drift -> Early; Early
M) Muddle -> Weird; Early; Weird -> MDDDD; Drift -> Early; Early; Drift -> Heartbeat; Heartbeat; Drift -> Early; Early; Drift -> Early; Early
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