A large majority of players love the current state of Standard. Tons of decks and it's possible to sit through ten rounds and never see the same deck twice. So what's the problem? Well, all that testing at FNM and casual play means pretty much nothing, because the only Standard tournament left this season won't have many of these popular decks in it! You see, Wizards of the Coast and the DCI seem to have a sick affection for scheduling major Standard events a week or less after a new set has hit the street. This leaves people unable to field their favorite decks, due to rotation and the inability to get the cards they need for new decks fast enough.
So how does anyone test for States this far ahead of time? Well, we won't have the luxury of a spoiler of the new set a month before the pre-releases, like last year (which I'm sure I don't need to elaborate on), but we can evaluate the cards that every archetype will lose from Kamigawa block and see what won't be there. From there, you can adjust for any key cards that get released in Time Spiral. Until then, we can only prepare for what currently exists.
*Expected showing represents how many of them I expect will be in the field, and thus, what to test against the most in your gauntlet. This does not necessarily represent how well I think they'll do.
High
Gruul – What can I say? The entire deck is still there. It had literally nothing from Kamigawa block, with the exception of Jitte, which wasn't too important anyway. The only thing that hurts is that Gruul depended upon Jitte to quickly win matchups against Izzetron, as all you needed was two counters and a creature and you escaped Wildfire and Repeals long enough to win. With annoying blockers such as Sakura-Tribe Elder leaving, and the overall curve going down, I foresee a ton of Gruul at States. Typically, aggro decks have done very well in formats like this (see Boros Deck Wins last year), and I expect no less this year.
Izzetron – Izzetron is one of the most dominant decks in the format, and everyone knows it. Set your sideboards up to beat it however you can, as you will play against it at States. The most it loses is Keiga/Ryusei, which isn't a problem as there's always a kill condition available to put into a U/R deck. It is conceivable that Time Spiral will offer up some form of defense against Izzetron's strategy, but it is not likely to break it. It has some consistency issues, and weaknesses against the aggro decks in the format, but it is still most likely the best all-round deck in the format right now.
Magnivore – Magnivore's only real significant loss is Eye of Nowhere, but that can be replaced by Boomerang. It partially affects how to play with/around Magnivore, but the added flexibility of Boomerang's instant speed should allow players to manipulate opponents effectively. One of the deck's worst matchups – Heartbeat - leaves the format, and really only leaves Glare to prey on its weakness to any deck that can accelerate out quicker than it can destroy. Gruul and Zoo will still be around to give it problems, but now Wildfire will be able to wipe the board in situations that a Jitte with two counters made it nearly impossible to win. Even better news is that the deck has gained a great sideboard card in Coldsnap: Cryoclasm. Vore is consistent, inexpensive to build, fairly easy to pilot, and has 40% or better matchups versus most of the decks still expected to be viable for States. It'll be played heavily and you can't run your gauntlet without it.
Zoo – Zoo has a ton going for it, going into States. The only cards it loses are Isamaru, Hound of Konda and Umezawa's Jitte. Jitte isn't a huge loss, as it was simply there to win Jitte wars versus other aggro decks, and it'll free up slots to fight whatever comes in the new Standard. Isamaru is a decent loss - his 2/2 body is fairly unique to the format - but it can be replaced by a one-drop from any of the three colors, or more burn. It's a deck that is easy to use, and a lot of people own the stuff for it. Plus, with the overall mana acceleration curve going downward, and Sakura-Tribe Elder (the bane of quick aggro) leaving, low mana decks will likely find themselves in a greater advantage in the later turns. My only concern is that Zoo may find itself at a bigger disadvantage with Deathmark entering the format. I haven't tested it in a deck yet, but I think Deathmark will be as evil against Zoo as Seize the Soul was against Gruul decks. A bunch of counter-aggro decks are running Black for one reason or another, and Deathmark will be evil against them.
Medium
Beach House – Basically the only permission deck in the format without counters, the Beach House deck is still very popular with those who want a deck that can have a decent match up against everything (but it doesn't dominate anything either). It doesn't lose much to the rotation, and should see moderate play at States, but I don't see how it will consistently wade through the amounts of land destruction that should be there. Beach House has the same problem that Solar Flare has, a non-basic manabase with very mana intensive spells and the inability to fight a kill condition with less than three lands/signets. I'd suggest that you have Condemns in your sideboard at the very least if you decide to run this deck at States.
B/U/G Aggro – This deck has many forms, but none of them really lose much outside of Umezawa's Jitte. Now, most of the aggro decks simply ran Jitte because every other aggro deck would run it, but B/U/G depended upon it more for removal and to counteract Dark Confidant's damage than any other deck. While this hurts the deck, it doesn't really upset the deck's concept or tempo. It's still the same deck, but it will have to find something else to effectively boost its smaller creatures and enable them to become big threats like Jitte did. This deck can give LD fits, especially if it goes first, and can hold its own against Gruul and Zoo a lot of the time. So I expect it to have a decent showing at States, with the possibility of winning a few.
Critical Graft – This deck accomplishes through the synergy of the Graft mechanic what Jitte used to do for a bunch of other counter-aggro decks. It makes the cheaper guys useful in all portions of the game, and minimizes the amount of dead cards that can be drawn late. It protects its creatures with more than just countermagic (via Plaxcaster Frogling and Plaxmanta) and essentially can turn a stalemate of creatures on both sides into an advantage just by laying a creature and moving many +1/+1 counters over to make a creature that can blast through all the opposing blockers. Unlike a lot of the decks in the current States field, it can still make a creature into a five or greater toughness creature to survive a Wildfire, and it runs off of a minimal amount of lands. This deck gives others headaches, and I expect it to do very well at States.
Glare – Glare has disappeared from the scene lately, but it's still a very good deck that can beat you if you're not careful. All it loses is Sakura-Tribe Elder (some didn't even play that) and its kill conditions in Kodama of the North Tree and Yosei, the Morning Star. While that hurts, it's not a fatal loss, as those creatures were not part of a greater combo like in Greater Good. Efficient creatures will undoubtedly be available in Time Spiral, so this isn't much of a concern. Its bad matchups were nearly all combo decks, and they're all leaving the format. On top of that, it is capable of great matchups versus the four decks I expect to show in extreme numbers, Izzetron, Magnivore, Gruul, and Zoo. I see this as great bet for a metagame deck in October, and I believe others will come to this conclusion come October.
Sand Burn – Sand Burn is a deck that got at Top 8 finish at Japanese Nationals and yet isn't getting much love on the forums. So why am I putting it up here with Solar Flare, Sea Stompy, and the like to put into your testing gauntlet? Because it has all the qualities of a deck that many people will bring to States. It's fairly cheap to build, with Blood Crypt being the cheapest of the dual lands (and you really wouldn't have to include them to run the deck), easy to use with a “drop land, creature or burn, your turn” mentality, and loses little to the set rotation. Flames of the Blood Hand could be replaced for another burn spell, and there will probably be one in Time Spiral as there is in almost every “first set” in a block. Even if there isn't, there isn't a lack of burn cards available. Genju of the Spires is a bit of a bigger loss, because of its ability to spank the slower control decks early while they're setting up their manabases. I don't think anything like it will be reprinted in the future, but it doesn't make the archetype unviable. It seems like Japanese Nationals was totally set up to face control, and Katayama Hidenori abused that fact to a Top 8 with this deck. States will not be the same kind of metagame, and Sand Burn likely won't be as effective because of that. However, that doesn't mean you shouldn't test against it and expect to see it during States.
Solar Flare – I know some will disagree with me, but I feel this deck is not as good as the hype. It has very good match ups versus aggro, but many sideboarded games against aggro builds are lost due to an early Blood Moon. The Signets help this, but it's difficult to cast Wrath of God off of signets sometimes. Still, it should have 40-60% matchups against the majority of the aggro deck types. Unfortunately, the same dependence upon non-basic lands will cause it to have a lot of difficulty against Magnivore and Izzetron, as all of its threats are simply too large and mana intensive to ever hit the board, and they will obviously be waiting for the Zombify with counterspells. This is not to say that these matchups are impossible, but they are definitely difficult. Adarkar Valkyrie is huge in these matchups, and I expect more people to be playing them as a four-of at States because of the lack of things to put into the Yosei, the Morning Star and Kokusho, the Evening Star slots. These are significant losses, but can possibly replaced with creatures from Coldsnap and Time Spiral... maybe. Overall, it's a good, but not great, deck that can go deep into a tournament simply due to its consistency, but will be losing some of its bite come the rotation.
U/R Sea Stompy – Basically Zoo with the ability to draw cards in the mid-game and counter board sweepers, this deck probably hasn't caught on because it lacks the ability to just smash someone's face like Zoo has. Post-rotation, this deck maintains its capability to wreck most permission decks (once again, Umezawa's Jitte was only there to combat other Jittes, not actually part of the strategy). It does lose Ninja of the Deep Hours, but that can be replaced by Ohran Viper. The deck loses some synergy this way, but once it hits the board it'll likely be an even better card drawing engine, as your aggro opponents will most likely let the Viper pass, rather than sticking his Kird Ape or other creatures in front of it to die (it's card advantage for the opponent either way… so let the creature live). The deck still has bad matchups with B/W control, and 50%-ish matchups with Magnivore and Izzetron, but the worst ones, like Heartbeat, will be long gone. This is a deck people won't expect because it hasn't been as effective with the current Standard metagame, but it can be very effective.
Vipies – This deck is simply designed to get card advantage with everything it does. Dark Confidant, Ohran Viper, Hypnotic Specter, Persecute… it's just a card advantage machine. It's a deck that forces most decks to have an immediate answer to its threats, or constantly fall behind until it's just too far gone. This allows it to control a lot of the control decks, and its card drawing gives it enough threats to keep the aggro decks on their heels. It loses a few cards to the rotation, and Jitte will have to be replaced with more creature removal (putrefy, last gasp or something similar), but it is otherwise a very solid list post-rotation. My only problem with it is that matchups against Izzetron and Magnivore, post-rotation, appear to be decided entirely upon the opening hand. If it can get a turn 2 Hypnotic Specter - or to a lesser extent, an Ohran Viper - then it has a chance to keep up and not lose to the card advantage gained by a Wildfire or Pyroclasm. If you can keep them discarding their mana sources to stay off of Tidings and Wildfire for an extra 2-3 turns, you're probably going to win. If that doesn't happen, then a single Wildfire wipes out four of its 22 lands and all of its acceleration in the Birds of Paradise and Llanowar Elves. The ability to equip Jitte and have one guy swing for the win (or just keep them from casting Wildfire at all) is now gone. In such a situation, Demonfire then becomes a dead card as well. Against other decks with board sweepers like Wrath of God, it's a much better matchup as it doesn't mind losing it's creatures when it can just Demonfire you for the rest. The deck also lacks the ability to get a quick turn 4 or 5 kill since almost everything is one or two power. Now I would assume that Vipies players would begin sideboarding in even more hand disruption to fight their bad matchup post-rotation, but that's only a guess. Overall, it's a very good deck that has a good possibility of winning States, and it deserves to be in your gauntlet.
Wafo Tapa – Basically a U/R control deck that plays a lot like U/W control. Counter everything, unless you can kill it with something in your hand, then lay a fatty with counter backup and win. It loses nothing and gains Flashfreeze to help against the aggro and LD match ups. It's a decent deck, but it lacks threats to pressure opponents and I've seen it have some really bad mana consistency issues. It also has a tendency to require the player to leave himself vulnerable, if threats get past the counter magic, in order to cast card drawing early because it lacks a board sweeper like U/W has in Wrath of God and it can't catch up. It's not a very popular deck, but it will be present enough to put it into your testing gauntlet.
Low
B/W Aggro/Hand in Hand – Well, gone are the Hands and Jitte that make this deck such an efficient killer. Much like Ghost Husk and Ghost Dad, it now reverts to something of a general archetype where a bunch of things can be put, but none are Tier 1 quality. Time Spiral will drastically effect this deck, but with the limited time until States, it's doubtful anything truly groundbreaking will emerge unless a card is printed that is just too obvious to miss. As it is now, I expect it to be a slightly effective deck, but entirely unable to keep up with the speed of Gruul/Zoo and the card drawing of Izzetron. Still, there will always B/W decks in the field, and I expect some to show.
Firemane Angel – This deck has been relegated to Tier 2 status for a while now, but it could see a resurgence with the rotation. I say “could” because the reason it couldn't survive was the combination of land destruction and combo decks that combined for too many bad matchups to make it worth playing. While the land destruction will still be present, the combo decks (Heartbeat, Owl, Greater Good, Gifts, Glare) are pretty much going to be out of the format for States. That's not to say there won't be combo decks in the new Standard, there absolutely will. However, brand new combo decks likely won't materialize before States, and this makes Firemane a possible metagame deck choice for States that can handle the various aggro decks that will undoubtedly be there.
Proclamation of Rebirth – Say what? Never heard of this deck? Well, obviously you've not been paying attention to MTGO. Mostly a combo deck, it utilizes rarely seen cards Kami of False Hope and Martyr of Sands to gain life and prevent damage on a large scale. Proclamation at Rebirth then forecasts them into play over and over to keep aggro decks at bay, or Debtors' Knell does the same thing, but only with the ability to use their own kill conditions against them. It's a strategy that is very similar to the original infinite Gifts combo that would bring back Kami of False Hope with Goryo's Vengeance until the deck could find a kill condition. Scrying Sheets, and an entirely snow-type manabase, keeps the mono-White deck constantly drawing its mana and threats. I'm putting it into the “low” category since Kami of False Hope and Yosei, the Morning Star are rotating out, and they are two of its major threats. However, similar cards might become available and make it a staple of the format. The only concern I had was that I did not see a way for it to handle early mana-denial strategies, as the matches I've seen have shown it to get stuck on three lands many times, and it requires a minimum of six to start comboing out. However, to its benefit, it seems to maindeck Condemn to handle whatever the land destruction strategies have out as their kill condition after a Wildfire.
Structure & Force – S&F is a metagame deck in its purist form. The Japanese Nationals metagame has always been portrayed as “control heavy,” and S&F takes full advantage of that by ignoring maindeck board sweepers to fit in more anti-control elements. That's all well and good, but now most of those things the deck was designed to control simply won't be there. S&F goes out of it's way to tutor up Jittes to fight Jittes, Counterbalance to win counter wars and beat decks with mostly two- or three-mana spells, and Spell Snare to fight control. The deck is not entirely about the Counterbalance/Sensei's Divining Top synergy, but more about the synergy with fighting two-mana spells that tend to be the backbone of the current Standard metagame. It's really just a good control deck if they guessed right, and they did. But it isn't going to be the same metagame at States, and anything similar to it that you see at States just shouldn't be called Structure & Force.
Note: I expect someone will try to break Counterbalance for States (and most people expect it to be broken eventually), so keep your eyes peeled for cards from Time Spiral that will have good synergy with Counterbalance.
U/W/G Counterpost – This deck is probably the most extreme definition of “permission deck.” It just hopes to find a way to win, which equals inconsistency and an inability to take advantage of an opponent's weakness. Clunky and unrefined, without any agreed upon win-condition strategy, I don't expect this deck to show in great numbers.
White Weenie – WW is an effective deck that hasn't had any love lately, despite having one of the best cards at its disposal to combat Magnivore and Izzetron in Shining Shoal. With the Shoal it could simply overwhelm and overplay its creatures and then redirect the damage from Pyroclasm or Wildfire to the opponent and swing for the win. Now, without Shining Shoal, I don't see much hope for it. Instead, I think any possible WW type deck will have to be more like W/U Skies. Unfortunately, there isn't much that Skies does that Gruul and Zoo can't do as well or better.
“Yasokon” – This deck got a Top 8 finish at Japanese Nationals, but seems to have been overlooked by the Magic community. Because of this, I'll be a bit more detailed.
The deck is very similar to the Bob-the-Builder type designs from nearly a year ago, but with enhanced card drawing capabilities from Scrying Sheets. I have only had time to test the deck a few matches against the top archetypes since I saw the deck list, but I have noticed that it has a heavy dependence on the Sensei's Divining Top and Umezawa's Jitte in that testing. I found that surprising considering it only ran two Jittes and three Sensei's Divining Top, but I constantly felt behind in multiple matchups (mostly aggro) without them on the field. Dark Confidant is rarely considered a winning threat unless he's wielding a Jitte (and is easily removed by anything utilizing burn or Last Gasp), and getting an early Phyrexian Ironfoot on the board against control is much less of an advantage when they don't have to worry about it turning into a 7/8 with Jitte counters. This makes it a bit more acceptable to hit the field for a control player whom might be playing Wildfire or Wrath of God. The Phyrexian Ironfoot definitely gives it a better chance against Zoo, where most of the creatures usually can't pound through its defense (or are required to two-for-one with it via a burn spell), and your counters and card drawing can eventually overwhelm a Zoo player. It's untap ability is also the equivalent of Vigilance, since it can attack and still block their 3/3s, 2/2s, and 2/1s. Gruul, however, can get around Ironfoot more easily, with eight outs in Char and Dryad Sophisticate, and also has Burning-Tree Shaman with enough of a toughness to block and it pings you if you use it's untap ability. Yasokon rarely has the mana early enough in the game to play the Ironfoot and have Remand or Hinder backup (which will turn into Mana Leak or Rune Snag with the rotation), so its only real kill condition is going to be exposed. Against counter-aggro decks, they can stall out when facing down a Phyrexian Ironfoot, but any good counter-aggro player that knew the matchup would simply dedicate all their countermagic to keeping it off the field. This can result in a very long stalemate that is winnable via card-advantage with Scrying Sheets, but you have to have the patience to play it out. The deck can also self-destruct without the Top and Jitte because of the damage Dark Confidant does to you (lack of life gaining via Jitte), and Scrying Sheets now becomes a 33% chance of helping you, and a 66% chance of wasting three mana.
Jitte and Sensei's Top can be replaced, but the synergy just isn't the same. Much like Structure & Force, it was tuned to fight the control matchups with seventeen maindeck counters and no real way to remove permanents from the board other than three Boomerang and two Umezawa's Jitte. While a similar U/B deck is not out of the question for States, the metagame will be entirely different and it will have to be adapted to it. Overall, it's a Tier 2 deck for the States metagame.
Non-Existent
Erayo – Good deck, but discovered too late to matter for Standard.
Ghost Husk/Dad – Two incredible decks that die with the Rotation. That is to say, what made them a distinctly different archetype rotates and then the core cards that are left are generally B/W control.
Greater Good – Greater Good is a great deck that has disappeared off the map recently, and I wish it'd come back. However, it is unlikely that it will with Time Spiral. Goryo's Vengeance could be replaced with something similar (albeit more expensive to cast), and the rest of the mana acceleration could be replaced. Everyone will have to deal with it, so the drop off in speed wouldn't be too noticeable. But the core of the deck, the “goes to the graveyard” creatures cannot be replaced with anything in Ravnica or Coldsnap. Should cards with similar mechanics show up in Time Spiral you should take a serious look at testing a Greater Good style of deck for States. Otherwise, it's dead.
Heartbeat – Heartbeat loses a lot, but its core components are still there. Early Harvest, Weird Harvest, X spell kill conditions, Drift of Phantasms, etc are all still present, but the way it goes about the combo will have to be entirely redone. It loses reliability in Sensei's Divining Top, and mana consistency and fetching in Sakura-Tribe Elder and Kodama's Reach. Some of this can be replaced with Farseek and Into the North, but they're nowhere near as efficient. It didn't gain much in Coldsnap to help this problem, so whether this deck lives or dies entirely depends upon Time Spiral. Given that most of the tournaments that have been a week after release have not been effected by entirely new combo decks (which is what it'd be), I would not expect to see this deck at all at States.
Owl – I love this deck, but even I know that it's losing a lot. Though it might surprise you about what I believe is worst to lose. The Ebony Owl Netsuke does hurt, but despite the name the real kill condition has always been Sudden Impact. Where I think it really dies is the losses of Kami of the Crescent Moon and Eye of Nowhere. Without 3-4 additional “Howling Mine” effects and 3-4 additional Boomerangs to get tempo (whether lands or creatures or whatever), you simply lose the capability to keep control of board position and hand size. Since it was already a very small percentage of the metagame, this deck is dead outside of similar cards being printed in Time Spiral.
Snakes – A fun and extremely effective deck that makes me constantly wonder why Orzhov Pontiff didn't become a $5 card for all of the B/W decks. Too bad all the best snakes will rotate with Kamigawa, effectively neutering this deck design. Sure, you get Ohran Viper to go along with Patagia Viper and Coiling Oracle, but without Sakura-Tribe Elder, Sakura-Tribe Scout, and Sosuke's Summons, it's really a shell of its former self. This is not to say that a similar U/G counter-aggro deck cannot evolve from Snakes, but the likelihood of it being discovered for States is fairly low. (Someone will have something thrown together, but it won't really be Snakes)
Final Analysis
As you can notice, there are basically zero combo decks that are still viable at this time. This opens the door for all the aggro-control decks to have less sideboard cards dedicated to disrupting decks that can win without playing many permanents. It makes these decks more effective in what they do (blowing stuff up and then protecting a fatty), and reduces their need to maindeck answers for things like Heartbeat, Greater Good, and the like. The lack of Cranial Extraction will also allow those decks to play with fewer win conditions if they choose to do so. The aggro decks will simply do what they do best, by smashing face as consistently as they can. The lack of combo doesn't affect their actual decks, but may see their tournament results go down slightly as aggro-control and land destruction can focus more sideboard slots on them. On the other hand, the low casting costs in Zoo and Gruul gives it better matchups against every deck in the post-rotation Standard, as the land acceleration slows down. Less acceleration equals slower response time to your threats, and extra damage over time. Land destruction doesn't really change at all, and, if anything, gets stronger from the rotation since the available land acceleration gets worse. With Glare being the only deck in the format capable of throttling up its land count now, the land destruction deck's matchups become that much better overall and no longer requires LD players to go out of their way to waste counters on acceleration.
Best Decks for States (IMO, and in no particular order):
Izzetron
Magnivore
Glare
Critical Graft
Gruul
Zoo
I hope this helps everyone that is already preparing for States, and clears up some of the confusion of what will and won't be legal when you start designing your decks!
Until next time,
Scott Rogers
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