It seems that threshold, at least as a tier 1 strategy in Type 2, has been dismissed early by pro-tour regular Zvi Mowshowitz in his recent article"Threshold Analysis: Conclusion". However, I feel that conclusion a tad premature, and I believe the numbers support me. If you have not read this article, it would probably be helpful to do so before I delve into the analysis.

As a starting point, lets assume Zvi's calculation that in six turns you should draw about twelve cards - or one-fifth of your deck. Since seven cards need to be in your graveyard for threshold, that's five times seven cards in your graveyard total. Unfortunately, Zvi figures that to be forty-two, where as my calculator says its thirty-five. That is a huge difference, eliminating the need for slot entirely, even by the cards he was using as examples. Lets look at a sample deck for reference purposes.

Jusinkyo

Creatures:
4x Llanowar Elves
4x Nimble Mongoose
4x Druid Lyrist
4x Gaea's Skyfolk
4x Werebear
4x Krosan Beast

Spells:
4x Standstill
4x Fact or Fiction
4x Rushing River
4x Careful Study

Lands:
8x Forest
8x Island
4x Yavimaya Coast

Current Sideboard:
4x Kavu Chameleon
4x Gainsay
4x Syncopate
3x Spellbane Centaur

Let us first look at the cards that feed threshold. Fact or Fiction is the obvious first choice. Accepting Zvi's 3.5 cards per cast, that brings us to fourteen. Careful Study seems more stable in a blue-green creature deck than Probe, as it leaves mana open for casting creatures, and the kicker on Probe will never be paid anyway. At three cards every time you cast it, that brings our total to twenty-six. Rushing River is a far superior option to the cantrips in this deck. Not only does it clear the way for your fatties to get through, but it has great synergy with Standstill and can throw an extra card into your graveyard. Assuming you only pay the kicker half the time, that comes to 1.5 cards a cast, bringing our total to thirty-two. Standstill is the last card in this group. We will discuss more on this later, but for our current purposes it will add one card every time it is cast, bringing our total to 36. That's one over the necessary turn 6 threshold, with only four card slots used. I believe this makes threshold much more viable than Zvi is accounting for.

Let's take a look at this deck card by card:

Llanowar Elves: This is pretty basic. The only real question is whether Birds of Paradise are a better one-drop. After extensive playtesting, I chose the Elves, as they allowed a you to both attack turn two and drop a Standstill.

Druid Lyrist: Pure utility. They are a great one-drop if you don't have an Elf handy, they can disrupt an opponent's plan to Standstill, and in a pinch they are easy to throw away to a Careful Study.

Gaea's Skyfolk: Still the best two casting-cost flyer around, this card really shines when matched against another beatdown deck. With plenty of fat to hold the ground, the Skyfolk deliver victory in two-point packages.

Nimble Mongoose: The Mongooses (I swear that's what spellcheck says it should be) go the distance against burn every time. They provide the early unremovable beats until the big fat arrives.

Werebear: Early mana acceleration, late beats.

Krosian Beast: An 8/8 for four by the time you cast it. The only time it is ever a good idea to cast it before you have threshold is if you suspect that a Traumatize headed your way.

Standstill: The best card drawing in T2 right now, this card has great synergy with the one-drops in this deck. More than once, an early game Standstill has provided the extra edge for victory.

Fact or Fiction: So much has been said about this card already that it only remains to say that card drawing in a beatdown deck is almost wrong.

Careful Study: The only card in the deck devoted entirely to attaining threshold, at 1 cc, it's a bargain.

Rushing River: Again, utility. The River takes care of anything that might stop your fat from getting through, as well as setting you up for a good Standstill position.

In any given match, the most important thing to remember is that every point of damage counts. Every time you have a 1/1 with an open shot at reducing your opponent's life, turn him sideways. On average, this deck will have done five to ten points of damage before you reach threshold - enough that when you do, it only takes a couple of turns to finish the job. Rushing River removes any obstacles to this, be it Ensnaring Bridge or just removing enough blockers to quickly deal lethal damage. This deck thrives on board advantage, and Fact or Fiction and Standstill let this deck continue to play cheap, big creatures after most beat-down decks have run out of gas.

On to the matchups:

Opposition: This is without a doubt the toughest matchup. In my testing, it has been about 50/50 in game one, with much better odds after siding in Spellbane Centaur, Gainsay, and Syncopate. With two mainboard answers to the Opposition (Druid Lyrist, Rushing River), game one generally comes down to the amount of early damage and creatures you can lay on the table. Nimble Mongoose shines in this matchup.

Finkula: This is actually a good matchup for this deck. The key here is that after you achieve threshold (which is helped along by your opponent's Counterspells/Vindicates), every all three of the threshold cards become must counter spells. Generally speaking, this deck plays one or two threats a turn, with major card drawing backup every two or three turns. Kavu Chameleon and Gainsay out of the sideboard turn an already favorable match (about 70% in game 1) into an almost autowin.

Traumatize - Haunting Echoes/Discard – Haunting Echoes: Both of these decks run into the same problem - their victory condition feeds mine, and mine does damage starting on turn two. This is almost an auto-win. With the card drawing generally negating the discard, and sheer number of creatures this deck can generate, by the time the Echoes is cast the game is already lost to them. I have never lost to Haunting Echoes playing this deck.

White Weenie: This deck cannot keep up with the creature rush, or with the fact that the little creatures this deck uses jump to big creatures in a short amount of time. If you are expecting quite a bit of White Weenie in your area, consider sideboarding Wash Out instead of Syncopate.

Land Destruction: This deck needs four mana sources to cast any one card… and runs twenty-eight. With the creatures drawing off the early burn and the card drawing in your favor, this deck cannot destroy enough land in time to stop the creature hoard from killing it. As a plus, every land that goes to the graveyard feeds theshold. When it only takes two land to play a 4/4, it's hard to destroy enough land in time. This deck has about an 80% game one record against LD.

I believe that Zvi dismissed threshold a tad too quickly. If you have any opinions, questions, or just plain hate mail, my mailbox hasn't seen any action in a few weeks. You can e-mail me at jeremyg@kscable.com.

Good luck to all of you going to States!

Jeremy Groom

P.S. - If there is a team in Kansas looking for another member, drop me a line… I'm starting to feel a little isolated out here :)